Virginia decides to stay in the Union.

[HueyLong]

I think a shorter Civil War more easily won by The Union than in OTL would still have led to emancipation. I think that emancipation would have been a planned emancipation, perhaps done gradually, maybe phased out over a set period of time.

Slavery was an embarassment to The United States in terms of how the rest of the world viewed us.

But more than that, the fact that it had brought us to a Civil War would have told everyone both North and South that this was something we had to really deal with, and the only way to deal with it was to bring the institution of slavery to an end. So I think a shorter war more easily won by The North would still have led to emancipation, but that emancipation would have been handled differently than in OTL.

So slavery was an embarassment. It wouldn't matter once the wayward states were brought back into the fold. It didn't matter before, either. Britain never had the power to threaten America over it, neither did any other nation. The British couldn't even threaten Brazil. At that point in time, sentiments weren't high enough on either side to allow emancipation. The dominant mood was of Free-Soil, and many Northerners were against Abolition.

Its more wishful thinking than anything else to believe that emancipation would come about from a shorter Civil War. Its wishful thinking to believe one could wipe away so much of the blood and unpleasantness and still have the (relatively) bright end. You can't.

You may see a more "conspiratorial" view of the Rebellion, with prominent leaders being executed or exiled and these "traitor's" slaves being freed. But beyond that and maybe a war contraband order, there will be no emancipations. There will be a definite end in the territories, but that is it. Slavery will survive in the South until they rise again to defend slavery, or until it peters out due to economic circumstance.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I think the postwar situation in such a scenario is more interesting than the short war itself.

Though if the war is much shorter, are the technologies, tactics, and institutions created by the war gone?

 

[Glass Onion]

I think I have a possible POD for such a scenario. According to "Lies Legends and Cherished Myths of American history" In 1832 in Virginia in the wake of the Nat Turner uprising Virginia held a vote on abolishing slavery. The vote was suprisingly close according to the book 53-73. Have it go the other way and slavery would have been dead in Virginia by the time the civil war comes around. Not entirely sure how plausible this is or how accurate my source is. Anyway without slavery I doubt Virginia would be tempted to join the confederacy

 

[HueyLong]

Its accurate, and fairly plausible.

But without a slave holding Virginia in 1832, everything from there on changes, drastically, to where any Civil War in 1861 is a rather big jump.

 

[Susano]

Lee was quite the hypocrite on the issue of secession.

He made quite clear that he would have very different responses if the Deep South left without Virginia, if the South left en masse including Virginia, and if most of New England and the Northeast left a United States still dominated by southern sensibilities.

It seems to me he identified as a Virginian foremost, and hence would have differentr esponses according to what Virginia would do. I dont see any hypocrisy in this.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Susano, you don't see any hypcrisy in a man standing for states rights while having three completely different responses to a state exercising a supposed right, all depending on which state was involved?

If he had stated he would be for secession if Virginia seceded and against if Virginia was not he would have the virtue of consistency as Virginia would obviously not benefit from secession if it was other states seceding while Virginia remained loyal. Once he decided that he would support the use of military force if Virginia remained loyal and Massachussets tried to leave but not be involved if Virginia remained loyal and South Carolina tried to leave...

 

[EmptyOne]

In OTL the north-western counties of Virginia seceded from Virginia and formed West Virginia after Virginia seceded from the US .

If Virginia as a whole had not seceded from the US, might some of the south-eastern counties seceded from Virginia (and the US) to join the Confederacy?

If so, would 'East Virginia' have remained a separate state?

 

[Ghost 88]

In OTL the north-western counties of Virginia seceded from Virginia and formed West Virginia after Virginia seceded from the US .

If Virginia as a whole had not seceded from the US, might some of the south-eastern counties seceded from Virginia (and the US) to join the Confederacy?

If so, would 'East Virginia' have remained a separate state?

No, West Virginia was recognized as a seperate state under conditions that would not apply to this East Virginia. To fulfill the requirement that the state which the succeding state is leaving agree the Union Govt. used the vote of a puppet Va Govt. which was not the elected one, in the case of a CSA recognized succesion this would not hold as the Loyal State of Virginia never agreed to the seperation.

 

[Susano]

If he had stated he would be for secession if Virginia seceded and against if Virginia was not he would have the virtue of consistency as Virginia would obviously not benefit from secession if it was other states seceding while Virginia remained loyal. Once he decided that he would support the use of military force if Virginia remained loyal and Massachussets tried to leave but not be involved if Virginia remained loyal and South Carolina tried to leave...

Oh, I see. Well, hm, guess he felt cultrually more limnked to the South then New England...

 

[Thyme]

Susano, you don't see any hypcrisy in a man standing for states rights while having three completely different responses to a state exercising a supposed right, all depending on which state was involved?

If he had stated he would be for secession if Virginia seceded and against if Virginia was not he would have the virtue of consistency as Virginia would obviously not benefit from secession if it was other states seceding while Virginia remained loyal. Once he decided that he would support the use of military force if Virginia remained loyal and Massachussets tried to leave but not be involved if Virginia remained loyal and South Carolina tried to leave...

No more than a man saying "I'll help my friends, even if they did start the fight". or "This war is a mistake, but my country is fighting it, so I'll enlist."