Yes -yet another Norse in North America TL.
This is actually a timeline I have been toying with in my head since before the internet
Let me know what you think.
POD: December 1241
In 1240, Batu Khan, with an army of perhaps 130 000 men, invaded Europe. In strategic control was Subutai, one of history’s great generals. The invasion swiftly crushed Poland and Hungary, as well as pressuring other countries, when the news arrived of the death of Ogedei Khan. The Mongols withdrew in the spring of 1242. Batu and Subutai were finishing plans to invade Austria, Italy and Germany when the news reached them.
In this POD, Ogedei Khan survived for several years. Batu and Subutai puts into motion their plans for the invasion of Austria, then the German principalities, followed by Italy.
Initially, the plan met with stunning success and Austria fell quickly. However, they started to bog down in the Germanies. The terrain was less ideal for the Mongol horse tactics than the plains they invaded Poland and Hungary from, and the remaining advantage of surprise and unfamiliar tactics were to a degree spent in Austria.
Batu and Subutai respond with the terror tactics from their Russian campaign. While areas and cities that submit unconditionally to them is left unmolested, any area that resists is razed to the ground, the fields burned and all the populations slain.
Not an uncommon behavior for invading armies, but implemented with a ruthless thoroughness rarely seen. Worried about bogging down in the German principalities, Batu and Subutai aborts the German invasion early, and move on with the plan, proceeding to invade Italy with more success, then France and Spain.
While France does not manage a good defense, Spain proves a harder nut to crack. Batu and Subutais campaign does eventually bog down. Mongol maneuverability allows them to raid and burn across large parts of the flatter areas of Europe.
In Scandinavia, the result was something of a millennial panic. Similar instances have occurred previously, and the Mongols are seen as Gods punishment on the world. While King Håkon IV himself takes a more balanced view of the issue, a mild mass hysteria grips the population.
The King himself, having just put an end to the Norwegian civil wars, believes that a combination of naval power, and Norway’s extremely mountainous terrain should discourage any Mongol invasion. Asides from some preparations for moving the capital to a more protected location, he is more interested in opportunities that may open if the Mongols make an incursion into Denmark.
The millennial hysteria and belief that the Mongols will invade and kill everyone grips the population deeply, though. During this time European population were approaching a peak level, due to what has become known as the little climatic optimum. Norway also has a long history of population surpluses exporting themselves elsewhere. At this time, this was not old history, many families would have had branches which had moved out for land.
A part of the population of Norway decided to escape. It is worth noting that the medival population was climbing towards its maximum at this time. There was a number of landless sons floating around, and the serfdom was not an institution in Norway. Iceland was not really set up to receive a massive influx of colonists, and was perceived as too close to the Mongols anyway. Greenland was far enough away, but not really desirable real estate. Vinland however, provided both distance and real estate.
Emigration demographics.
Few dependable data on the population of Norway at this time exists. From the available sources, an estimate of 1 million seems reasonable1.
An initial wave of settlers sent back positive reports, before the first winter. The positive tales provided impetus for a much larger wave next spring.
All in all, over the 10 years when the main emigration happened, as much as 10-12 % of the population of Norway may have emigrated. Overwhelmingly, the young, landless and prospect less.
The emigration route followed the old Norse path to Vinland. Iceland and Greenland experienced a brief boomtown status as providers of supplies on the journey.
The size of the emigration caused a shortage of ships even to the naval orientated Norwegians. Many families made a good profit shipping emigrants to Vinland for a fee. Some toss them overboard or sell them as slaves once they are out of sight of land. Then return with tales of the pleasant land in the west to entice more passengers.
Although Norway is by far the greatest supplier of people, numbers of Swedes and Danes join the exodus. Towards the end, a number of people from the British Isles join in.
The number of people emigrating were in the realm of 110 000 people from Norway, 20 000 Danes, about 5000 Swedes, and late in the exodus, another 5000 or so from the British Isles. A smaller number of landless people from Iceland also went along during the peak.
The total number of emigrants were thus in the realm of 140 000 people.
Losses on the trip were not insignificant. Initially, as much as 20% of the colonists failed to reach their destination. The losses quickly declined, though, as more knowledge on the waters and routes were accumulated by the captains. In total, it is likely that over 20 000 people were lost during the crossing.
The royal response:
King Håkon IV of Norway initially tries to reduce the exodus, as the loss of his population base reduces his power. The exodus proves to disorganized to stop, however. Instead he scents a new addition to his kingdom in the making. He dispatched a fleet containing the illegitimate prince Sigurd, as well as a number of professional soldiers and craftsmen. This expedition also contains a number of writings, not all religious treatises.
Colonization pattern
Asides from the small fleet sent out by King Håkon IV, there was no overarching plan to the colonization. The ships would arrive on the Vinland coast, make contact with the nearest Norse farm for information, and proceed south, until a likely-looking area unclaimed by other Norse were reached. This led to a thin stripe of colonization following the coastline, and reaching far south. In 1256, the coastline from OTL Newfoundland down to OTL South Carolina has been settled.
The early history of the colonies.
This colonization differs significantly from the one in OTL in several respects.
First off, the Norwegian settlers arrived with far better coping skills for the climate than the settlers in OTL. Memories of the settlements in Iceland and Greenland were also relatively fresh, and the colonists brought livestock and appropriate tools.
The colonists were also somewhat more pragmatic in their religious attitudes.
The colonization pattern differed. A massive initial wave of colonists which petered out, as opposed OTLs accelerating colonization
Colonization happened towards the tail end of the Medieval Warm Period, and not in the depths of the Little Ice Age. This gave the colonists another advantage in the early years.
Disease advantage over the natives was reduced, although not eliminated.
The technology advantage over the natives was far less overwhelming than in OTL.
Relations with the natives varied immensely along the costal strip. In almost all cases, contact with the natives was followed by epidemics among the natives as they were exposed to flu, and other old world diseases. This gave the colonists a generations “grace period”, allowing them to gain a very firm foothold. Still, a number of settlements were wiped out where conflicts were fierce.
Beyond this, some areas traded with the natives. Some feuded with them, and some allied with them, getting involved in the natives’ wars. Most colonists, with some exceptions, took a pragmatic approach to missionary work among the natives. In fact, some pagan practices still flourished among the Vinlanders.
The royal colony under Sigurd, (who seems to have found the climate healthy for him, and survived almost 25 years longer than in OTL) traded with the natives, while establishing defensive positions on a large island. Sigurd proclaimed himself the ruler of the entirety of Vinland. A notion that would lead to some conflict with the Skraelings later. The notion of Sigurs rulership was mostly give lip service among the independent-minded settlers, except in areas where conflict with the natives was fierce. The royal settlement would send ships and soldiers to such areas, but leave a garrison for tax collection after the hostilities was concluded. If victorious.
This practice may have encourages some of the colonists to keep relations with the natives above freezing.
Given the naval origin of the colonies, and the fact that some colonists came from Greenland and Iceland where trees for shipbuilding were valuable, combined with the fact that the initial thrust of the colonies were located just off some of the worlds riches fishing grounds, it is not surprising that a culture with a high naval reliance arose. Sporadic conflicts with the natives also contributed. The natives was utterly unable to challenge the Vinlanders sea power. Much like sporadic Vinlander attempts to wage war in the deep forest met with disaster.
The ships provided fast communications, trade, and ability to shift forces around rapidly. This may have contributed to the success of the colonies.
The pattern that developed was buildings in wood, or sometimes stone, with a stone wall, surrounded by fields, witch advanced another half mile a year on the average, large harbors with much fishing and trading being done.
After the initial wave of settlements, many of the northernmost settlements did not last. Once the size of Vinland, and the better climate further south was known, many of the northern settlements were abandoned, or failed to develop as the second generation migrated south. The whole of the Greenland settlement would in effect eventually join these.
Contact with the southern civilizations.
It was inevitable that the far-ranging ships would eventually meet the Aztecs and other central American cultures. Although horrified at the Aztec religious practices, the amount of gold possessed by the Aztecs and other mesoamerican civilizations did lead the Vinlanders to trade. Eventually, trading practice led to contact with a more palatable empire: The Incas. The effect on the Vinlanders from contact with these empires was not large. Settlement in these areas was not an issue. Their climate coping skills were badly unsuited to the area, and there was no impetus to move there in the window when first contact diseases weakened the organized civilizations already present. The Norse gained gold and some luxury goods from trade, as well as some slaves, which added to their population base. However, they also learned about the crops of the Skraelings, maize, and more importantly, potato.
The effect on the Skraelings, while subtle, was far more important. They gained important knowledge. Although it was not implemented by the Aztecs or Mexican civilizations at this time, the Incas were more adaptable.
This knowledge included iron working and weaponry, knowledge of horses and seafaring. As well as inoculation against some European diseases and the knowledge that there exists an entire people of seafaring blondes in the east.
The Greenlanders
The presence of a large European colony in Vinland added considerably to the survival of the Greenlanders. Trading opportunities and ship visits were more frequent. The Greenlanders supplied furs and trapping as well as a base for ships wishing to do their own hunting in the summer.
As the climate worsened, however, the Greenlanders relocated south. While the locations were still used as a base during summer expeditions, the colony itself relocated.
Initially, contact across the Atlantic was frequent. Worsening climatic conditions made contact more sporadic until it cut off entirely about a century after the colonization started.
Preliminary timeline:
1240 : Mongol invasion of Europe starts
1241: Poland and Hungary is crushed
1242-1243: Austria falls, terror in Germany. European panic starts.
1244-1245: The Mongol invade Italy, doing vast damage. Rome is burned to the ground. The pope dies in the Vatican flames. France falls. European panic rises sharply.
1244: Mild emigration to Iceland
1245: First wave of emigrants to Vinland. Less than a thousand emigrants
1246: Battles in Spain. Second year of Vinland emigration. Over ten thousand people emigrate.
1246-1256: Fighting with Mongols devastate large areas of Europe. Emigration to Vinland remains massive with an average of over ten thousand people per year leaving. The peak is over twenty thousand after a Mongol raid into Denmark.
1256-1260: The Mongol invasions panic has burned itself out. Emigration slows to a trickle, mainly of landless and prospect less young.
1250-1275 approx. Flu and other European diseases devastate native Americans.
The Vinland colony finds the climate pleasant, the land fertile, and the fishing good. The new generation is large, and well fed.
Although a pleasant place during this time, Vinland is only sporadically visited from Europe. The place is more than self-sufficient for food and necessities, but do not produce any trade goods of note. Most contact is with vessels trading fur with the Greenlanders, and resupplying. The Vinlanders retain the ships that brought them to Vinland, and build new ones, taking a larger and larger percentage of the trade with Greenland. Vinland produces a lot of things the Greenlanders want.
During this period, the Vinlanders, in adapting to their new location, also adopt a tradition of slightly greater adaptiveness than previously.
1275-1315: Much of the trade with Greenland is now taken over by the Vinlanders. European ships visit Greenland less often. The occasional Vinlander ship visits Iceland. During this time, conflict and cooperation with the natives increase. Vinlanders become involved in several feuds and downright wars. Often allied to one tribe while fighting another.
Around 1300 the Medival Warm Period is generally seen as ending. The climate begins to worsen. Increasing sea ice makes shipping more hazardous from Greenland.
The colonists have still increased their numbers rapidly during the initial honeymoon period. Numbers may now be only slightly below half a million.
1315-1350s With Greenland trade less profitable, the last voyage from Europe to Greenland occurs in 1345.
The climate continues to worsen, and fish stocks become a more important food source for the Vinlanders. Many small scale conflicts with the natives occur. The Vinlanders learn how to use their ships to move fighters rapidly. The initial push of fields and farms inlands slows and often stops during this time. The population still climbs, but under the pressures of less food, hostile actions and colder winters, it climbs far more slowly.
1347 the Black Death hits Norway.
1350-1400 The climate continues to worsen2. Reliance on fish grows. Some small allied native tribes adopt Christianity, and the Vinlander way of living. Vinlander attitudes to the natives is now a very local thing, varying sharply between areas of conflict and areas of cooperation. At least one Vinlander village falls back into paganism. The villagers move into the area of the great lakes with a co-religionist tribe.
Towards the end of the fourteenth century, the first encounters are made between Vinladers and the Mesoamericans around the gulf of Mexico.
The last permanent residents of Greenland relocate south.
1400-1500 The crops remain poor. Dairy and fishing remain the food staples. Native conflicts have settled down. The Vinlanders split into several different political areas, a Kingdom under the line of Sigurd Magnusson, a republic based on the Icelandic and pre-royal Norwegian model, and a number of independent farms and areas centered around a religious revival. The Kingdom takes a hostile attitude to the natives, much of the royal power is built on protecting the people from the supposedly hostile natives. The republic counts at least two larger tribes as full members of the republic.
The Bishop of the religious group has poor relations with the natives, but would honestly like to better them, due to the potential for missionary work.
Conflict between these groups is mainly at sea, and over fish stocks at this time.
In 1480 a strange ship is spotted by the fishing ships off Markland (Newfoundland). With three masts and a high prow, it is unlike any ship seen previously. It is still fishing from fish stocks that this group of Vinlanders feel proprietary about, and is quickly dispatched.
For the next few years, this encounter is repeated frequently.
Gulf of Mexico trade has made a group of families very wealthy.
The splinter pagan group has intermarried with the natives, and is hard to distinguish from other tribes -visually. They practice a semiviking Norse paganism with warrior virtues and a Norse fatalism. This religion is beginning to become popular among the other tribes in the area.
Towards the start of the sixteenth century, there has been no contact with Europe for a hundred and fifty years. Seven generations.
The occasional group of young bucks have set sail for the sunrise, but so far, no one has made it there. The sea ice packs the route that the Vinlanders remember, and any that made it to Europe would have to face the plagues resurgences.
By now, Europe is remembered the ruined land “the people” originated from. Common belief has it that the Mongols did destroy all of Europe. The pope is seen as a distant religious figure much like Jesus and Mary. The Mongols were demons, who supposedly killed the last pope anyway. King Magnus is remembered as the Hero-King of a shining kingdom.
Strong cultural storytelling traditions have lead to hundreds of stories of doomed European heroes and ogrelike Mongols. Full of fighting, love and rather earthy. Borrowing from local native tales as well.
Further from this:
I’d really like some suggestions here. There are a number of areas that I do not feel I know that well, and have left deliberately vague. For example, the costal geography of North America. Are there any areas that the Norwegians are likely to skip entirely, or settle more heavily?
What resources are available? Iron would be extremely important.
Where would be a good island for the Royal mission to settle? Defensible, flat and able to support agriculture, large enough to make a good base.
What would the Mongol invasions do to Europe in TTL?
The eventual fate of the Mongol empire will be important later on. Do the Muslims cut of trade with India and China, generating the pressure for a sea route that drove Colombus?
Colombus himself will be butterflied away, with his unique miscalculations of the earths size, and access to the ears of Ferdinand and Isabella, but if the pressure is still there, someone else will try the route. Although it will likely take more time before they do.
I see contact with the mound people happening soon. What do we know about them?
The climate will continue to worsen until about 1720.
I see a half-breed from the pagan tribes sent to the royal isle as a hostage. While there he encounters some of the writings the original mission brought with them from Norway. He finds most boring, but one set is interesting. It is on the Mongols and their tactics.
The amount of inspiration for how horses can be used in warfare he drew from those texts would change the face of Vineland. And the Mesoamerican civilizations.
1)
The Historical Atlas estimates 1 million for Denmark in 1200. Historically, the two countries have had similar carrying capacity. The Medieval Sourcebook estimates a combined population for Germany and Scandinavia of 11.5 million in 1340. (Up from 4 million in 1000, which gives an indication of the speed of the population expansion at this time.)
2)
http://geochemistry.usask.ca/bill/courses/Climate/The%20Little%20Ice%20Age%20prt.pdf
This is actually a timeline I have been toying with in my head since before the internet
Let me know what you think.POD: December 1241
In 1240, Batu Khan, with an army of perhaps 130 000 men, invaded Europe. In strategic control was Subutai, one of history’s great generals. The invasion swiftly crushed Poland and Hungary, as well as pressuring other countries, when the news arrived of the death of Ogedei Khan. The Mongols withdrew in the spring of 1242. Batu and Subutai were finishing plans to invade Austria, Italy and Germany when the news reached them.
In this POD, Ogedei Khan survived for several years. Batu and Subutai puts into motion their plans for the invasion of Austria, then the German principalities, followed by Italy.
Initially, the plan met with stunning success and Austria fell quickly. However, they started to bog down in the Germanies. The terrain was less ideal for the Mongol horse tactics than the plains they invaded Poland and Hungary from, and the remaining advantage of surprise and unfamiliar tactics were to a degree spent in Austria.
Batu and Subutai respond with the terror tactics from their Russian campaign. While areas and cities that submit unconditionally to them is left unmolested, any area that resists is razed to the ground, the fields burned and all the populations slain.
Not an uncommon behavior for invading armies, but implemented with a ruthless thoroughness rarely seen. Worried about bogging down in the German principalities, Batu and Subutai aborts the German invasion early, and move on with the plan, proceeding to invade Italy with more success, then France and Spain.
While France does not manage a good defense, Spain proves a harder nut to crack. Batu and Subutais campaign does eventually bog down. Mongol maneuverability allows them to raid and burn across large parts of the flatter areas of Europe.
In Scandinavia, the result was something of a millennial panic. Similar instances have occurred previously, and the Mongols are seen as Gods punishment on the world. While King Håkon IV himself takes a more balanced view of the issue, a mild mass hysteria grips the population.
The King himself, having just put an end to the Norwegian civil wars, believes that a combination of naval power, and Norway’s extremely mountainous terrain should discourage any Mongol invasion. Asides from some preparations for moving the capital to a more protected location, he is more interested in opportunities that may open if the Mongols make an incursion into Denmark.
The millennial hysteria and belief that the Mongols will invade and kill everyone grips the population deeply, though. During this time European population were approaching a peak level, due to what has become known as the little climatic optimum. Norway also has a long history of population surpluses exporting themselves elsewhere. At this time, this was not old history, many families would have had branches which had moved out for land.
A part of the population of Norway decided to escape. It is worth noting that the medival population was climbing towards its maximum at this time. There was a number of landless sons floating around, and the serfdom was not an institution in Norway. Iceland was not really set up to receive a massive influx of colonists, and was perceived as too close to the Mongols anyway. Greenland was far enough away, but not really desirable real estate. Vinland however, provided both distance and real estate.
Emigration demographics.
Few dependable data on the population of Norway at this time exists. From the available sources, an estimate of 1 million seems reasonable1.
An initial wave of settlers sent back positive reports, before the first winter. The positive tales provided impetus for a much larger wave next spring.
All in all, over the 10 years when the main emigration happened, as much as 10-12 % of the population of Norway may have emigrated. Overwhelmingly, the young, landless and prospect less.
The emigration route followed the old Norse path to Vinland. Iceland and Greenland experienced a brief boomtown status as providers of supplies on the journey.
The size of the emigration caused a shortage of ships even to the naval orientated Norwegians. Many families made a good profit shipping emigrants to Vinland for a fee. Some toss them overboard or sell them as slaves once they are out of sight of land. Then return with tales of the pleasant land in the west to entice more passengers.
Although Norway is by far the greatest supplier of people, numbers of Swedes and Danes join the exodus. Towards the end, a number of people from the British Isles join in.
The number of people emigrating were in the realm of 110 000 people from Norway, 20 000 Danes, about 5000 Swedes, and late in the exodus, another 5000 or so from the British Isles. A smaller number of landless people from Iceland also went along during the peak.
The total number of emigrants were thus in the realm of 140 000 people.
Losses on the trip were not insignificant. Initially, as much as 20% of the colonists failed to reach their destination. The losses quickly declined, though, as more knowledge on the waters and routes were accumulated by the captains. In total, it is likely that over 20 000 people were lost during the crossing.
The royal response:
King Håkon IV of Norway initially tries to reduce the exodus, as the loss of his population base reduces his power. The exodus proves to disorganized to stop, however. Instead he scents a new addition to his kingdom in the making. He dispatched a fleet containing the illegitimate prince Sigurd, as well as a number of professional soldiers and craftsmen. This expedition also contains a number of writings, not all religious treatises.
Colonization pattern
Asides from the small fleet sent out by King Håkon IV, there was no overarching plan to the colonization. The ships would arrive on the Vinland coast, make contact with the nearest Norse farm for information, and proceed south, until a likely-looking area unclaimed by other Norse were reached. This led to a thin stripe of colonization following the coastline, and reaching far south. In 1256, the coastline from OTL Newfoundland down to OTL South Carolina has been settled.
The early history of the colonies.
This colonization differs significantly from the one in OTL in several respects.
First off, the Norwegian settlers arrived with far better coping skills for the climate than the settlers in OTL. Memories of the settlements in Iceland and Greenland were also relatively fresh, and the colonists brought livestock and appropriate tools.
The colonists were also somewhat more pragmatic in their religious attitudes.
The colonization pattern differed. A massive initial wave of colonists which petered out, as opposed OTLs accelerating colonization
Colonization happened towards the tail end of the Medieval Warm Period, and not in the depths of the Little Ice Age. This gave the colonists another advantage in the early years.
Disease advantage over the natives was reduced, although not eliminated.
The technology advantage over the natives was far less overwhelming than in OTL.
Relations with the natives varied immensely along the costal strip. In almost all cases, contact with the natives was followed by epidemics among the natives as they were exposed to flu, and other old world diseases. This gave the colonists a generations “grace period”, allowing them to gain a very firm foothold. Still, a number of settlements were wiped out where conflicts were fierce.
Beyond this, some areas traded with the natives. Some feuded with them, and some allied with them, getting involved in the natives’ wars. Most colonists, with some exceptions, took a pragmatic approach to missionary work among the natives. In fact, some pagan practices still flourished among the Vinlanders.
The royal colony under Sigurd, (who seems to have found the climate healthy for him, and survived almost 25 years longer than in OTL) traded with the natives, while establishing defensive positions on a large island. Sigurd proclaimed himself the ruler of the entirety of Vinland. A notion that would lead to some conflict with the Skraelings later. The notion of Sigurs rulership was mostly give lip service among the independent-minded settlers, except in areas where conflict with the natives was fierce. The royal settlement would send ships and soldiers to such areas, but leave a garrison for tax collection after the hostilities was concluded. If victorious.
This practice may have encourages some of the colonists to keep relations with the natives above freezing.
Given the naval origin of the colonies, and the fact that some colonists came from Greenland and Iceland where trees for shipbuilding were valuable, combined with the fact that the initial thrust of the colonies were located just off some of the worlds riches fishing grounds, it is not surprising that a culture with a high naval reliance arose. Sporadic conflicts with the natives also contributed. The natives was utterly unable to challenge the Vinlanders sea power. Much like sporadic Vinlander attempts to wage war in the deep forest met with disaster.
The ships provided fast communications, trade, and ability to shift forces around rapidly. This may have contributed to the success of the colonies.
The pattern that developed was buildings in wood, or sometimes stone, with a stone wall, surrounded by fields, witch advanced another half mile a year on the average, large harbors with much fishing and trading being done.
After the initial wave of settlements, many of the northernmost settlements did not last. Once the size of Vinland, and the better climate further south was known, many of the northern settlements were abandoned, or failed to develop as the second generation migrated south. The whole of the Greenland settlement would in effect eventually join these.
Contact with the southern civilizations.
It was inevitable that the far-ranging ships would eventually meet the Aztecs and other central American cultures. Although horrified at the Aztec religious practices, the amount of gold possessed by the Aztecs and other mesoamerican civilizations did lead the Vinlanders to trade. Eventually, trading practice led to contact with a more palatable empire: The Incas. The effect on the Vinlanders from contact with these empires was not large. Settlement in these areas was not an issue. Their climate coping skills were badly unsuited to the area, and there was no impetus to move there in the window when first contact diseases weakened the organized civilizations already present. The Norse gained gold and some luxury goods from trade, as well as some slaves, which added to their population base. However, they also learned about the crops of the Skraelings, maize, and more importantly, potato.
The effect on the Skraelings, while subtle, was far more important. They gained important knowledge. Although it was not implemented by the Aztecs or Mexican civilizations at this time, the Incas were more adaptable.
This knowledge included iron working and weaponry, knowledge of horses and seafaring. As well as inoculation against some European diseases and the knowledge that there exists an entire people of seafaring blondes in the east.
The Greenlanders
The presence of a large European colony in Vinland added considerably to the survival of the Greenlanders. Trading opportunities and ship visits were more frequent. The Greenlanders supplied furs and trapping as well as a base for ships wishing to do their own hunting in the summer.
As the climate worsened, however, the Greenlanders relocated south. While the locations were still used as a base during summer expeditions, the colony itself relocated.
Initially, contact across the Atlantic was frequent. Worsening climatic conditions made contact more sporadic until it cut off entirely about a century after the colonization started.
Preliminary timeline:
1240 : Mongol invasion of Europe starts
1241: Poland and Hungary is crushed
1242-1243: Austria falls, terror in Germany. European panic starts.
1244-1245: The Mongol invade Italy, doing vast damage. Rome is burned to the ground. The pope dies in the Vatican flames. France falls. European panic rises sharply.
1244: Mild emigration to Iceland
1245: First wave of emigrants to Vinland. Less than a thousand emigrants
1246: Battles in Spain. Second year of Vinland emigration. Over ten thousand people emigrate.
1246-1256: Fighting with Mongols devastate large areas of Europe. Emigration to Vinland remains massive with an average of over ten thousand people per year leaving. The peak is over twenty thousand after a Mongol raid into Denmark.
1256-1260: The Mongol invasions panic has burned itself out. Emigration slows to a trickle, mainly of landless and prospect less young.
1250-1275 approx. Flu and other European diseases devastate native Americans.
The Vinland colony finds the climate pleasant, the land fertile, and the fishing good. The new generation is large, and well fed.
Although a pleasant place during this time, Vinland is only sporadically visited from Europe. The place is more than self-sufficient for food and necessities, but do not produce any trade goods of note. Most contact is with vessels trading fur with the Greenlanders, and resupplying. The Vinlanders retain the ships that brought them to Vinland, and build new ones, taking a larger and larger percentage of the trade with Greenland. Vinland produces a lot of things the Greenlanders want.
During this period, the Vinlanders, in adapting to their new location, also adopt a tradition of slightly greater adaptiveness than previously.
1275-1315: Much of the trade with Greenland is now taken over by the Vinlanders. European ships visit Greenland less often. The occasional Vinlander ship visits Iceland. During this time, conflict and cooperation with the natives increase. Vinlanders become involved in several feuds and downright wars. Often allied to one tribe while fighting another.
Around 1300 the Medival Warm Period is generally seen as ending. The climate begins to worsen. Increasing sea ice makes shipping more hazardous from Greenland.
The colonists have still increased their numbers rapidly during the initial honeymoon period. Numbers may now be only slightly below half a million.
1315-1350s With Greenland trade less profitable, the last voyage from Europe to Greenland occurs in 1345.
The climate continues to worsen, and fish stocks become a more important food source for the Vinlanders. Many small scale conflicts with the natives occur. The Vinlanders learn how to use their ships to move fighters rapidly. The initial push of fields and farms inlands slows and often stops during this time. The population still climbs, but under the pressures of less food, hostile actions and colder winters, it climbs far more slowly.
1347 the Black Death hits Norway.
1350-1400 The climate continues to worsen2. Reliance on fish grows. Some small allied native tribes adopt Christianity, and the Vinlander way of living. Vinlander attitudes to the natives is now a very local thing, varying sharply between areas of conflict and areas of cooperation. At least one Vinlander village falls back into paganism. The villagers move into the area of the great lakes with a co-religionist tribe.
Towards the end of the fourteenth century, the first encounters are made between Vinladers and the Mesoamericans around the gulf of Mexico.
The last permanent residents of Greenland relocate south.
1400-1500 The crops remain poor. Dairy and fishing remain the food staples. Native conflicts have settled down. The Vinlanders split into several different political areas, a Kingdom under the line of Sigurd Magnusson, a republic based on the Icelandic and pre-royal Norwegian model, and a number of independent farms and areas centered around a religious revival. The Kingdom takes a hostile attitude to the natives, much of the royal power is built on protecting the people from the supposedly hostile natives. The republic counts at least two larger tribes as full members of the republic.
The Bishop of the religious group has poor relations with the natives, but would honestly like to better them, due to the potential for missionary work.
Conflict between these groups is mainly at sea, and over fish stocks at this time.
In 1480 a strange ship is spotted by the fishing ships off Markland (Newfoundland). With three masts and a high prow, it is unlike any ship seen previously. It is still fishing from fish stocks that this group of Vinlanders feel proprietary about, and is quickly dispatched.
For the next few years, this encounter is repeated frequently.
Gulf of Mexico trade has made a group of families very wealthy.
The splinter pagan group has intermarried with the natives, and is hard to distinguish from other tribes -visually. They practice a semiviking Norse paganism with warrior virtues and a Norse fatalism. This religion is beginning to become popular among the other tribes in the area.
Towards the start of the sixteenth century, there has been no contact with Europe for a hundred and fifty years. Seven generations.
The occasional group of young bucks have set sail for the sunrise, but so far, no one has made it there. The sea ice packs the route that the Vinlanders remember, and any that made it to Europe would have to face the plagues resurgences.
By now, Europe is remembered the ruined land “the people” originated from. Common belief has it that the Mongols did destroy all of Europe. The pope is seen as a distant religious figure much like Jesus and Mary. The Mongols were demons, who supposedly killed the last pope anyway. King Magnus is remembered as the Hero-King of a shining kingdom.
Strong cultural storytelling traditions have lead to hundreds of stories of doomed European heroes and ogrelike Mongols. Full of fighting, love and rather earthy. Borrowing from local native tales as well.
Further from this:
I’d really like some suggestions here. There are a number of areas that I do not feel I know that well, and have left deliberately vague. For example, the costal geography of North America. Are there any areas that the Norwegians are likely to skip entirely, or settle more heavily?
What resources are available? Iron would be extremely important.
Where would be a good island for the Royal mission to settle? Defensible, flat and able to support agriculture, large enough to make a good base.
What would the Mongol invasions do to Europe in TTL?
The eventual fate of the Mongol empire will be important later on. Do the Muslims cut of trade with India and China, generating the pressure for a sea route that drove Colombus?
Colombus himself will be butterflied away, with his unique miscalculations of the earths size, and access to the ears of Ferdinand and Isabella, but if the pressure is still there, someone else will try the route. Although it will likely take more time before they do.
I see contact with the mound people happening soon. What do we know about them?
The climate will continue to worsen until about 1720.
I see a half-breed from the pagan tribes sent to the royal isle as a hostage. While there he encounters some of the writings the original mission brought with them from Norway. He finds most boring, but one set is interesting. It is on the Mongols and their tactics.
The amount of inspiration for how horses can be used in warfare he drew from those texts would change the face of Vineland. And the Mesoamerican civilizations.
1)
The Historical Atlas estimates 1 million for Denmark in 1200. Historically, the two countries have had similar carrying capacity. The Medieval Sourcebook estimates a combined population for Germany and Scandinavia of 11.5 million in 1340. (Up from 4 million in 1000, which gives an indication of the speed of the population expansion at this time.)
2)
http://geochemistry.usask.ca/bill/courses/Climate/The%20Little%20Ice%20Age%20prt.pdf