Vandalism Redefined

[GrizzlyTrotsky]

Hey folks. Fairly long time lurker here, but I'm approaching a point within the next few months where I will start posting work on a TL. However, I would like some input.

The Chaos theory, rerolling the dice in history is all well and good. However with this timeline, I intend to build a TL wherein the alt history still looks vaguely familiar even some time after the PoD, charting a more conservative path of divergence, rather than the rapidly spreading cloud of butterflies often seen in timelines. As this IS Chaos, sometimes history will reroll the same number on the dice.

Considering this, do you think that the presence of a strong Vandal Kingdom in North Africa that stops the westward invasions of the new Muslim Caliphate would fundamentally make the eventual emergence of a Charlemagne-like Frankish/Roman Empire unlikely?

 

[Last of the Stuarts]

I would have said that it stenghened the likelyhood rather than weakened it. With no muslims on this western side Charlemagne could concentrate on the east and wiping out the saxons. Have I missed the point you wanted to make?

 

[GrizzlyTrotsky]

Nope, not at all! I was doing research on the formation of the empire, but I wasn't sure if I had missed something, or misinterpreted events. Thanks for your input!

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Hey folks. Fairly long time lurker here, but I'm approaching a point within the next few months where I will start posting work on a TL. However, I would like some input.

The Chaos theory, rerolling the dice in history is all well and good. However with this timeline, I intend to build a TL wherein the alt history still looks vaguely familiar even some time after the PoD, charting a more conservative path of divergence, rather than the rapidly spreading cloud of butterflies often seen in timelines. As this IS Chaos, sometimes history will reroll the same number on the dice.

Considering this, do you think that the presence of a strong Vandal Kingdom in North Africa that stops the westward invasions of the new Muslim Caliphate would fundamentally make the eventual emergence of a Charlemagne-like Frankish/Roman Empire unlikely?

I'm not sure this approach to butterflies is really a very good one. A surviving Vandal kingdom changes a great deal with regards to Islam, for example, as it means the whole tempo of the Roman/Persian wars is changed, which means the fatal Persian overrun of the Roman East, and consequent exhaustion of both empires won't happen. This'll mean that, if Islam does emerge, it's unlikely to be able to expand far out of its Arabian cradle, and reach Vandal Africa at all.

Plus, in general, I think the Vandals are one of the less likely Germanic kingdoms to survive. They're unpopular with their subjects, rule over a very rich area, and are weaker than the Ostrogoths- and, it goes without saying, weaker by several orders of magnitude than the Eastern Roman Empire.

For the Vandals to survive, they'd have to convert to Catholicism at the very least, and spend several decades as grovelling clients of Constantinople, to be able to hold off threats from the Visigoths and Ostrogoths. After that, the ERE will become distracted by one or another problem, and the Vandals could well break free of Imperial oversight- but who wants to write a TL about a relatively weak client state that only gradually becomes more powerful?

Then again, as I wrote that, I think such a TL would actually be pretty interesting, so perhaps I should eat my own words. I think the TL would be less a Vandal-wank, more a "Story of Vandalia", though, if you get what I mean?

 

[Ahab]

I'm not sure this approach to butterflies is really a very good one. A surviving Vandal kingdom changes a great deal with regards to Islam, for example, as it means the whole tempo of the Roman/Persian wars is changed, which means the fatal Persian overrun of the Roman East, and consequent exhaustion of both empires won't happen. This'll mean that, if Islam does emerge, it's unlikely to be able to expand far out of its Arabian cradle, and reach Vandal Africa at all.

Plus, in general, I think the Vandals are one of the less likely Germanic kingdoms to survive. They're unpopular with their subjects, rule over a very rich area, and are weaker than the Ostrogoths- and, it goes without saying, weaker by several orders of magnitude than the Eastern Roman Empire.

For the Vandals to survive, they'd have to convert to Catholicism at the very least, and spend several decades as grovelling clients of Constantinople, to be able to hold off threats from the Visigoths and Ostrogoths. After that, the ERE will become distracted by one or another problem, and the Vandals could well break free of Imperial oversight- but who wants to write a TL about a relatively weak client state that only gradually becomes more powerful?

Then again, as I wrote that, I think such a TL would actually be pretty interesting, so perhaps I should eat my own words. I think the TL would be less a Vandal-wank, more a "Story of Vandalia", though, if you get what I mean?

Well, you could allway have the Arabs grab constantinopol and expand into the balkan insted of into north africa. that will give a chance to the Vandals to re-establish themself as the lords of africa and will destroy the threat of the ERE.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Well, you could allway have the Arabs grab constantinopol and expand into the balkan insted of into north africa. that will give a chance to the Vandals to re-establish themself as the lords of africa and will destroy the threat of the ERE.

Firstly, you need to work on your spelling.

Secondly, as I explained in my previous post, a surviving Vandal North Africa more or less precludes Islam from even existing, due to the butterfly effect. Now, I agree that an Arab conquest of Constantinople probably does mean North Africa beyond Cyrenaica stays Christian, but it'll be the Christianity of the Exarch of Carthage and the Berber Tribes, not the Christianity of the Vandals, who had been gone for over a century by the time of Yarmouk.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Plus, in general, I think the Vandals are one of the less likely Germanic kingdoms to survive. They're unpopular with their subjects, rule over a very rich area, and are weaker than the Ostrogoths- and, it goes without saying, weaker by several orders of magnitude than the Eastern Roman Empire.

For the Vandals to survive, they'd have to convert to Catholicism at the very least, and spend several decades as grovelling clients of Constantinople, to be able to hold off threats from the Visigoths and Ostrogoths. After that, the ERE will become distracted by one or another problem, and the Vandals could well break free of Imperial oversight- but who wants to write a TL about a relatively weak client state that only gradually becomes more powerful?

The attack on Vandals was feared. Between 442 and 468, Vandals had beat off repeated attempts by Western and Eastern Roman Empire to dislodge them - in 468, involving 1100 ships.

In 533, many feared another disaster, and argued against Justinian. When Belisarius did arrive (with just 500 ships), he had several lucky breaks in the decisive battles.

Give Gelimer a bit more luck, so that 533 is another disaster. Will Justinian try again, or indeed have the political survival or popularity to attempt Ostrogoths?

Vandals are still Arians, unpopular and squabbling among themselves - but so were Visigoths. If Justinian´s plague and Avar invasions after him come on schedule, will Roman Empire be a serious threat to them again?