Unbuilt Canada

[TheMann]

The Georgian Bay Ship Canal and the latter two trans-continentals are related phenomena (as was the Toronto Eastern Railway for that matter). The excessive optimism of the "Wheat Boom" period had many Canadians and foreigners alike accepting projections of Canada having 100 million people by 2000 at face value. Accordingly, government and investors were both more than willing to build for "anticipated needs" that seem completely absurd in retrospect. Borden and Meighen had to work miracles during WWI to resolve the transportation bubble.

Not that I disagree with you on this, but assuming these actually did happen, would it be a White Elephants or would it quickly become a "Well, I'm glad I did that, because I'd be so screwed if I hadn't" type of situation? The Grand Trunk Pacific IMO chickened out (for good reason, but nevertheless) of building a metropolis in the Prince Rupert-Terrace-Kitimat area, and if they'd had BC would look very different today I suspect, both because of that and the very high likelihood of it leading the Prince George becoming a bigger place and northern BC becoming much more than a collection of resource colonies.

Likewise, if we assume the Georgian Bay Ship Canal was indeed built, does this result in North Bay and Sudbury becoming major cities in their own right? Ontario's population is overwhelmingly concentrated in the GTA and places to the southwest of it - Hamilton, K-W, London-St. Thomas, Windsor, Sarnia - and this would very likely change that. It would also make the Mid-Canada Corridor of above much more likely to exist as well, as here the world of ocean-going ships is only a few hundred kilometres from Timmins, Val D'Or and the Royun-Noranda regions as opposed to a few thousand. You can make the legitimate argument that it could have been a "if you build it, they will come" type of scenario that makes the projects involved worthwhile.

For the Toronto Eastern, there really is no excuse for some of the decisions made there. The line from Bowmanville to Whitby was complete and ready to go, even if you don't spend the money to extend to Pickering, why would you not make the section that's already built and paid for work for you? Integrate it with the Oshawa Railway and suddenly Oshawa has a proper transit system in the 1920s, which surely rewrites much of the city's development patterns - and even when the freight business goes away, you have a rapid transit system ready to go, which likely allows the Whitby-Oshawa-Courtice-Bowmanville region to grow dramatically, likely becoming far more than another Toronto suburb (a characterization that a lot of Oshawa residents absolutely loathe IOTL).

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Not that I disagree with you on this, but assuming these actually did happen, would it be a White Elephants or would it quickly become a "Well, I'm glad I did that, because I'd be so screwed if I hadn't" type of situation? The Grand Trunk Pacific IMO chickened out (for good reason, but nevertheless) of building a metropolis in the Prince Rupert-Terrace-Kitimat area, and if they'd had BC would look very different today I suspect, both because of that and the very high likelihood of it leading the Prince George becoming a bigger place and northern BC becoming much more than a collection of resource colonies.

In the case of the GTP's Prince Rupert terminal, I'd say that even iOTL that has retro-actively become a good investment (after a long period of white-elephant status) as these days PR is one of Canada's busiest ports.

The First World War and end of the Wheat Boom (debatable how related the two are) really screwed the GTP's plans for the region. Their plans were based on pre-war rates of settlement around western railways and the rate at which new mines were being opened. They were also based on pre-war availability of steel and other construction materials. So the war and the recession absolutely screwed their plans. I'm not sure how well it would work out absent WWI as the debt-financing of the GTP was being seen as a problem by GTR management even before the war.

Also we must consider what may come of GT's ill-fated rival could do in Vancouver. The CNoR had secured the agreement of Cunard Line to re-enter the Pacific market operating primarily out of Vancouver, so Vancouver could still end up King-effecting the rest of the Province even if GT's plans pan out.

Likewise, if we assume the Georgian Bay Ship Canal was indeed built, does this result in North Bay and Sudbury becoming major cities in their own right? Ontario's population is overwhelmingly concentrated in the GTA and places to the southwest of it - Hamilton, K-W, London-St. Thomas, Windsor, Sarnia - and this would very likely change that. It would also make the Mid-Canada Corridor of above much more likely to exist as well, as here the world of ocean-going ships is only a few hundred kilometres from Timmins, Val D'Or and the Royun-Noranda regions as opposed to a few thousand. You can make the legitimate argument that it could have been a "if you build it, they will come" type of scenario that makes the projects involved worthwhile.

Even more to the point, the GTP (well, the NTR really, but that was supposed to be leased by the GTP) ran right through the Greater Clay Belt of Northern Ontario and Quebec, which was then anticipated to become the Prarries of the 1920s. Without WWI putting the breaks on immigration, and causing the Ontario government to go control-freak-mode, the clay belt could well have been substantially settled, preserving the rail service through that area (iOTL it was built, but decades later the Ontario portion of it was discontinued due to lack of local demand).

I think the main benefit from the GBSC in a "everything goes right for Canada" TL is that it would give Ottawa a deep water port and possibly preserve the ship building industry on the upper Great Lakes.

For the Toronto Eastern, there really is no excuse for some of the decisions made there. The line from Bowmanville to Whitby was complete and ready to go, even if you don't spend the money to extend to Pickering, why would you not make the section that's already built and paid for work for you? Integrate it with the Oshawa Railway and suddenly Oshawa has a proper transit system in the 1920s, which surely rewrites much of the city's development patterns - and even when the freight business goes away, you have a rapid transit system ready to go, which likely allows the Whitby-Oshawa-Courtice-Bowmanville region to grow dramatically, likely becoming far more than another Toronto suburb (a characterization that a lot of Oshawa residents absolutely loathe IOTL).

Yeah that would have been very neat. Historically the part that ran through Oshawa was indeed kept by the OR, but the Whitby and Bowmanville bits weren't, which is a shame because I want Whitby and Courtice wiped off the map and absorbed into Oshawa yesterday.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The problem is that there's no reason to bypass those areas, since those are and have always been the heartland of Canada. The Canadian Shield means that there isn't a huge amount to do anywhere in the country aside from the St Lawrence Valley and the Ontario Peninsula until there's significant population in the Prairies.

A big part of the idea was to steer well away from the US. Not so much for security concerns as economic ones, as at the time most of Canada's wheat exports to Europe were leaving via ports in New England rather than those of Quebec or the Maritimes.

Also, the St. Lawrence Seaway required improvements on the American side of the border as well, requiring negotiations, which Canada prior to the Statute of Westminster couldn't actually engage in. So at the time the GBSC was being considered a St. Lawrence Seaway equivalent wasn't a viable alternative.

 

[TheMann]

In the case of the GTP's Prince Rupert terminal, I'd say that even iOTL that has retro-actively become a good investment (after a long period of white-elephant status) as these days PR is one of Canada's busiest ports.

True, and why I am more desirous of Prince Rupert as a major destination isn't just because of the port. That part of BC is dotted with small ghost towns left over from mining booms and mill towns that lost their mill. It's not good for anyone involved, really, and if it can be avoided by these places growing large enough to make something of a counterweight to the Lower Mainland it becomes a scenario where BC's economic (and with it, political) power is much more distributed, thus forcing the governments to think about the whole province. We get this problem in Ontario too, but it's surely worse when 70%+ of the population of the provinces lives in one (relatively) geographically small area.

Plus, looking at the geography of the region, I see Prince Rupert as one hell of a place to put a city. Make it so that it's growth surrounds the Harbour and takes over the areas towards Metakatla and Digby Island and you're gonna have one hell of a place for tourists and visitors, a medium-sized city wedged between forest-covered mountains and the Pacific Ocean.

The First World War and end of the Wheat Boom (debatable how related the two are) really screwed the GTP's plans for the region. Their plans were based on pre-war rates of settlement around western railways and the rate at which new mines were being opened. They were also based on pre-war availability of steel and other construction materials. So the war and the recession absolutely screwed their plans. I'm not sure how well it would work out absent WWI as the debt-financing of the GTP was being seen as a problem by GTR management even before the war.

Once again, agreed, but I could see how it wouldn't matter if the plans got slowed down by WWI and the end of the Wheat Boom if the CNR was to truly commit to Prince Rupert as a destination point for its system. As you say, it was treated as a White Elephant for a long time but is now coming good (as much as anything because of congestion in Vancouver) and CNR did have a long history of investing in its communities so I don't think that's terribly implausible. It does have the problem of the GTR's suspect finances (they ended up paying such sums to stockholders in England that they couldn't make their obligations to Ottawa, which is how they ended up as part of CNR) but I don't think that is an insurmountable problem.

Even more to the point, the GTP (well, the NTR really, but that was supposed to be leased by the GTP) ran right through the Greater Clay Belt of Northern Ontario and Quebec, which was then anticipated to become the Prarries of the 1920s. Without WWI putting the breaks on immigration, and causing the Ontario government to go control-freak-mode, the clay belt could well have been substantially settled, preserving the rail service through that area (iOTL it was built, but decades later the Ontario portion of it was discontinued due to lack of local demand).

And so knowing all of this, perhaps this could be what saves the GTR from.public ownership? There isn't a lot that could be done for the CNoR as MacKenzie and Mann overextended themselves to make the railroad a transcontinental one, but perhaps in return for helping with the CNoR's profitability, the NTR would be sold to the GTR (thus forming them at a stroke into a transcontinental) and the CNoR and Intercolonial (and presumably the Newfoundland Railway later on) are the CNR's base. The growth of the north during this time period (as you said, the Prairies of the 1920s) gives the Grand Trunk (and the Ontario Northland, which would be a huge beneficiary of such a situation, particularly if the Canal is built and now they funnel to ships in North Bay) would make a huge growth in the local demand, which would grow the GTR.

I think the main benefit from the GBSC in a "everything goes right for Canada" TL is that it would give Ottawa a deep water port and possibly preserve the ship building industry on the upper Great Lakes.

That, and it makes grain shipping out of the Great Lakes rather quicker and probably as a result cheaper as well.

Yeah that would have been very neat. Historically the part that ran through Oshawa was indeed kept by the OR, but the Whitby and Bowmanville bits weren't, which is a shame because I want Whitby and Courtice wiped off the map and absorbed into Oshawa yesterday.

I'm not sure why you'd want Whitby and Courtice brought into Oshawa (and I know a few Whitby people who would rather be part of a different country than Oshawa lol), but your point about the remnants of the Toronto Eastern becoming part of the OR would be quite logical. Looking at the map, you could use the open stretch south of Bond east of Ritson Road for the line, then run tracks through downtown based on which direction of the one-way street system from there to Stevenson and then presumably along Highway 2 to downtown Whitby. That would be very useful then as now.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

And so knowing all of this, perhaps this could be what saves the GTR from.public ownership? There isn't a lot that could be done for the CNoR as MacKenzie and Mann overextended themselves to make the railroad a transcontinental one, but perhaps in return for helping with the CNoR's profitability, the NTR would be sold to the GTR (thus forming them at a stroke into a transcontinental) and the CNoR and Intercolonial (and presumably the Newfoundland Railway later on) are the CNR's base.

GTP was supposed to take over operation of the NTR, that was the entire idea behind building it. When it was completed GT heel-turned and wanted nothing to do with it. By that point they were already trying to get out of the continental business ASAP before the GTP could kill its parent (ultimately not possible on account of the guarantees GTR had placed on GTP bonds).

I'm not sure why you'd want Whitby and Courtice brought into Oshawa

Lebensraum.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

With apologies for the phones scans:

I've always been rather fond of the version of T&E Toronto access using Taylor Creek and the Canadian Northern ROW, although the Coxwell version would have been very rapid transit like by my understanding.

 

[Minchandre]

A big part of the idea was to steer well away from the US. Not so much for security concerns as economic ones, as at the time most of Canada's wheat exports to Europe were leaving via ports in New England rather than those of Quebec or the Maritimes.

Also, the St. Lawrence Seaway required improvements on the American side of the border as well, requiring negotiations, which Canada prior to the Statute of Westminster couldn't actually engage in. So at the time the GBSC was being considered a St. Lawrence Seaway equivalent wasn't a viable alternative.

Both good points, though as far as the first, I can't imagine that it actually made so much more money for the goods to leave by Quebec City instead of an American port that it offset the cost of that canal.

It's very hard, looking back, to remember that US/Canada relations were...if not hostile, then at least fraught until basically the 20th Century.

 

[TheMann]

I've always been rather fond of the version of T&E Toronto access using Taylor Creek and the Canadian Northern ROW, although the Coxwell version would have been very rapid transit like by my understanding.

I agree on both fronts, but using the Coxwell ravine would mean running it through a built up area, which unless you're gonna tunnel it would mean really slowing down or knocking down a large portion of an already-established neighborhood. Better to stick to the CNoR route out to Pickering (beyond that the route runs much too far north to be of much use) and then stick as close to Highway 2 as you can the rest of the way.

 

[TheMann]

Both good points, though as far as the first, I can't imagine that it actually made so much more money for the goods to leave by Quebec City instead of an American port that it offset the cost of that canal.

It probably wouldn't, but being able to transfer at Thunder Bay or Lake Nipissing (or even Ottawa) would make more sense to then hauling it all the way to Boston or New York. The Canal would likely have resulted in major shifts in the way goods were hauled through the Great Lakes region.

It's very hard, looking back, to remember that US/Canada relations were...if not hostile, then at least fraught until basically the 20th Century.

At the beginning of the 20th Century, you still had American politicians who believe Washington's annexation of Canada was a matter of when, not if, and that spectre (however real or imagined) definitely played roles in a lot of infrastructure route planning. CPR's builders originally wanted to route the line through Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota to Winnipeg rather than through northern Ontario because of the population south of the border and the difficulties in building across the north shore of Lake Superior, but Ottawa wouldn't budge and since they were providing the financing for the project, they got their wish. It was the same with the Canadian Northern and the National Transcontinental as mentioned above.

The Canal would have meant an all-Canadian route for shipping from Lake Superior and Lake Huron to the St. Lawrence River and Montreal in a way that would have been much harder for the Americans to have any influence on. Giving the ability for ocean-going vessels to reach Canada's capital would have been a bonus, though I cannot imagine any of it being good for the local ecosystems, particularly on Lake Nipissing and the French River.

GTP was supposed to take over operation of the NTR, that was the entire idea behind building it. When it was completed GT heel-turned and wanted nothing to do with it. By that point they were already trying to get out of the continental business ASAP before the GTP could kill its parent (ultimately not possible on account of the guarantees GTR had placed on GTP bonds).

Once again I agree, but the question here is probably how to keep everyone from being sucked into CNR, or failing that, how to make sure the former GTPR/NTR and CNoR remain a successful enterprise. CNR, as I mentioned earlier, had a pretty good reputation for investing in the communities they served (the GTPR was the opposite, which added to its problems), so you can make the operation work, the question is what arrangements would need to be made to make it happen.

Lebensraum.

Okay, I shoulda seen that one coming. 🙃 In all honesty I can see that as a possibility for Oshawa much earlier on, too, especially when Whitby is a small town still. It wasn't merged with the region around it until.1970, but you'll need to make Oshawa think of itself rather more than just GM of Canada's hometown much sooner, long before the expansion of growth in the GTA makes Oshawa into a satellite city of Toronto.

 

[Kevin C. Smith]

At the risk of turning this into an "Unbuilt Prince Rupert" thread...Had the GTP remained under separate operation/control (in public or private hands) than the CNoR, how large would PR have realistically grown by, say, 1940? 1960? My impression is that the GTP was a long, empty line from Winnipeg to the Pacific. Given the decrease in immigration to settle the prairies after WW1, what development could the GT/GTP have accomplished that would create traffic through PR? Would traffic to/from eastern Canada been enough to sustain the line/port?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Once again I agree, but the question here is probably how to keep everyone from being sucked into CNR, or failing that, how to make sure the former GTPR/NTR and CNoR remain a successful enterprise. CNR, as I mentioned earlier, had a pretty good reputation for investing in the communities they served (the GTPR was the opposite, which added to its problems), so you can make the operation work, the question is what arrangements would need to be made to make it happen.

You would probably need the proposed GTR-CNoR merger to happen, or at least for some sort of strategic partnership to mitigate duplication (like agreeing to go halvesies on shared lines through Yellowhead Pass and between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg, and jointly leasing the NTR). That'd greatly simplify matters.

 

[Talwar]

Maybe there's a timeline waiting to be written about bigger Prince Rupert and its ripple effects over Canadian history.

 

[YYJ]

Maybe there's a timeline waiting to be written about bigger Prince Rupert and its ripple effects over Canadian history.

Charles Melville Hays lives! Because the Titanic misses the iceberg.

Charles Melville Hays - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Prince Rupert becoming the principal Canadian port on the west coast might be less plausible than the timeline I wrote where Prince Rupert was attacked by the Kaiserliche Marine.

 

[TheMann]

At the risk of turning this into an "Unbuilt Prince Rupert" thread...Had the GTP remained under separate operation/control (in public or private hands) than the CNoR, how large would PR have realistically grown by, say, 1940? 1960? My impression is that the GTP was a long, empty line from Winnipeg to the Pacific. Given the decrease in immigration to settle the prairies after WW1, what development could the GT/GTP have accomplished that would create traffic through PR? Would traffic to/from eastern Canada been enough to sustain the line/port?

You hit the nail on the head with regards to the problem the GTPR faced. It needed more settlement further north and for Saskatoon, Lloydminster and North Battleford to grow into larger cities to make it truly prosper, but I don't see that as being impossible. Perhaps we get issues with crops in Europe before WWI, which subsequently results in a larger number of immigrants to the northern Prairies and a major growth in grain exports running east?

As far as Prince Rupert goes, I think it being a city of 250,000 to 300,000 would be a big shift for BC, doubly so if you can make Prince George be a similar size. (Maybe make the PGE get there much sooner?) The transportation infrastructure can handle that easily and you'd also build a big bulwark against the Americans being trouble if you build there.

You would probably need the proposed GTR-CNoR merger to happen, or at least for some sort of strategic partnership to mitigate duplication (like agreeing to go halvesies on shared lines through Yellowhead Pass and between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg, and jointly leasing the NTR). That'd greatly simplify matters.

The CNoR simply not blowing a fortune building to Vancouver along the Fraser and Thompson may have saved their bacons as well, or at east delaying it until after the rest of the system is built would help too. Maybe their agreement with the GTPR results in the GTP building over Yellowhead and to Prince Rupert while the two team up on the line from Tete Jeune Cache to Vancouver, saving the CNoR a fortune and giving the GTP access to Vancouver.

The CNoR is still definitely going to want to build across Ontario no matter what happens with the NTR, but you could instead have it use the NTR for the most difficult section of it, allowing them to run from the NTR to Sudbury on its way south towards Toronto and the profitable areas of southern Ontario.

Charles Melville Hays lives! Because the Titanic misses the iceberg.

Charles Melville Hays - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Or perhaps he's one of the ones rescued from the sinking?

Prince Rupert becoming the principal Canadian port on the west coast might be less plausible than the timeline I wrote where Prince Rupert was attacked by the Kaiserliche Marine.

I'm not sure it could be the primary port for Canada on the West Coast, as the lower mainland is a very good place to have a port. But a much bigger city and much bigger port I think is very plausible.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

You hit the nail on the head with regards to the problem the GTPR faced. It needed more settlement further north and for Saskatoon, Lloydminster and North Battleford to grow into larger cities to make it truly prosper, but I don't see that as being impossible. Perhaps we get issues with crops in Europe before WWI, which subsequently results in a larger number of immigrants to the northern Prairies and a major growth in grain exports running east?

As far as Prince Rupert goes, I think it being a city of 250,000 to 300,000 would be a big shift for BC, doubly so if you can make Prince George be a similar size. (Maybe make the PGE get there much sooner?) The transportation infrastructure can handle that easily and you'd also build a big bulwark against the Americans being trouble if you build there.

The CNoR simply not blowing a fortune building to Vancouver along the Fraser and Thompson may have saved their bacons as well, or at east delaying it until after the rest of the system is built would help too. Maybe their agreement with the GTPR results in the GTP building over Yellowhead and to Prince Rupert while the two team up on the line from Tete Jeune Cache to Vancouver, saving the CNoR a fortune and giving the GTP access to Vancouver.

The CNoR is still definitely going to want to build across Ontario no matter what happens with the NTR, but you could instead have it use the NTR for the most difficult section of it, allowing them to run from the NTR to Sudbury on its way south towards Toronto and the profitable areas of southern Ontario.

Or perhaps he's one of the ones rescued from the sinking?

I'm not sure it could be the primary port for Canada on the West Coast, as the lower mainland is a very good place to have a port. But a much bigger city and much bigger port I think is very plausible.

Even a Thunder Bay-sized Prince Rupert would be quite the change from OTL.

 

[TheMann]

Even a Thunder Bay-sized Prince Rupert would be quite the change from OTL.

Yep, but I think it could be the second major seaport for Canada on the Pacific Coast, which could grow it far beyond Thunder Bay size.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

When I was playing around with a timeline for a larger timeline largely intended to help the railways my thinking was something along the lines of avoiding the Pacific Scandal and thereby opening the CPR about ten years earlier while also having someone (likely involved with CP shipping) bring in Indian as well as Chinese labour and push back against the single voyage rules on commercial grounds.

 

[kinnikuniverse]

I have no idea for Quebec that would really contribute to this thread. I'm not really that familiar with urban planning...other than keeping Stade Delorimier alive and expand it to finally have a major league ready ballpark downtown for the Expos and, obviously, keep the Forum alive lol.

 

[TheMann]

I have no idea for Quebec that would really contribute to this thread. I'm not really that familiar with urban planning...other than keeping Stade Delorimier alive and expand it to finally have a major league ready ballpark downtown for the Expos and, obviously, keep the Forum alive lol.

Doesn't have to be urban planning by any means. It's anything unbuilt. For Quebec, my first question would be anything Hydro-Quebec proposed at some point and then didn't build or something of that nature.

 

[kinnikuniverse]

Doesn't have to be urban planning by any means. It's anything unbuilt. For Quebec, my first question would be anything Hydro-Quebec proposed at some point and then didn't build or something of that nature.

...would Labbatt Park count, then? Or maybe whatever idea that was proposed at Expo 67? Or maybe a much better planning of the area knwon nowadays as the olympic park, with maybe a different and better construction of olympic stadium?