Treaty of San Stefano Enforced

[Black]

The original treaty of San Stefano after the 1877 Russo-Ottoman war was amended in the 1878 treaty of Berlin. However, what if the original borders of Bulgaria as laid out in the treaty were enforced. It would certainly shift the dynamic in the region.

How would Europe be different in the coming decades, and how would alliances shift leading to a World War?

 

[alexmilman]

The original treaty of San Stefano after the 1877 Russo-Ottoman war was amended in the 1878 treaty of Berlin. However, what if the original borders of Bulgaria as laid out in the treaty were enforced. It would certainly shift the dynamic in the region.

How would Europe be different in the coming decades, and how would alliances shift leading to a World War?

Putting aside an implied issue about WW being inevitable, I'd assume that the only way for San Stefano Treaty to stay would be backup of Russia (which pretty much broke all pre-war agreements) by at least one Great Power. What can it be?

Britain - out of question by the obvious reasons: it was acting against Russia pretty much as a matter of principle.
France - unlikely and it is still not strong enough militarily to be a decisive voice.
A-H - even with a granted "administration" of Bosnia-Herzegovina, it seems unlikely (unless it changes its whole approach to the Balkans) and it is not strong enough, anyway, to be a decisive factor.
Which leaves Germany. If Bismark was ready to stick his neck for Russia on that issue the whole dynamics of the German-Russian relations would be different (notwithstanding the fact that in Berlin he was basically insisting on Russia sticking to its own pre-war obligations, the German position was considered in Russia as a betrayal and paved a way to the future rapprochement with France). Among other "trifles", WWI probably would not happen.

 

[Black]

Putting aside an implied issue about WW being inevitable, I'd assume that the only way for San Stefano Treaty to stay would be backup of Russia (which pretty much broke all pre-war agreements) by at least one Great Power. What can it be?

Britain - out of question by the obvious reasons: it was acting against Russia pretty much as a matter of principle.
France - unlikely and it is still not strong enough militarily to be a decisive voice.
A-H - even with a granted "administration" of Bosnia-Herzegovina, it seems unlikely (unless it changes its whole approach to the Balkans) and it is not strong enough, anyway, to be a decisive factor.
Which leaves Germany. If Bismark was ready to stick his neck for Russia on that issue the whole dynamics of the German-Russian relations would be different (notwithstanding the fact that in Berlin he was basically insisting on Russia sticking to its own pre-war obligations, the German position was considered in Russia as a betrayal and paved a way to the future rapprochement with France). Among other "trifles", WWI probably would not happen.

Yeah I was thinking the most likely supporter would be Germany. A Russo-German alliance would be interesting. Would likely lead to a Franco-Austrian alliance.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Yeah I was thinking the most likely supporter would be Germany. A Russo-German alliance would be interesting. Would likely lead to a Franco-Austrian alliance.

Austria isn't dumb, they'll go along with what Germany and Russia want. Prussia beat both Austria and France in the last fifteen years, now Germany is united and has Russia on the flank. Austria won't say boo, they'll just wait for Russia and Germany to have a falling out.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Austria isn't dumb, they'll go along with what Germany and Russia want. Prussia beat both Austria and France in the last fifteen years, now Germany is united and has Russia on the flank. Austria won't say boo, they'll just wait for Russia and Germany to have a falling out.

The problem is, Greater Bulgaria puts Austria-Hungary in a much difficult position when Russia suddenly has a larger zone of influence. Vienna will not support it but will not object to it either. At best they might demand Albania as an extra compensation which of course will piss off Italy.

The Ottomans have 1 advantage now: Bulgaria will become a pariah in the Balkans with both Serbia and Greece being hostile towards them. The chance of this is likelier when Bulgaria will not act as a Russian vassal.

 

[Black]

The problem is, Greater Bulgaria puts Austria-Hungary in a much difficult position when Russia suddenly has a larger zone of influence. Vienna will not support it but will not object to it either. At best they might demand Albania as an extra compensation which of course will piss off Italy.

The Ottomans have 1 advantage now: Bulgaria will become a pariah in the Balkans with both Serbia and Greece being hostile towards them. The chance of this is likelier when Bulgaria will not act as a Russian vassal.

Stronger austro-Serbian alliance perhaps?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Stronger austro-Serbian alliance perhaps?

With Obradovic dynasty ruling... yes. But if Karađordevic dynasty takes over then the odds are changed as Austria-Hungary has an entirely hostile South. Greater Bulgaria might even be a new ally then... depending on the latter and its relationship with Russia.

 

[alexmilman]

Yeah I was thinking the most likely supporter would be Germany. A Russo-German alliance would be interesting. Would likely lead to a Franco-Austrian alliance.

This would be a luxury that A-H hardly could afford.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

This would be a luxury that A-H hardly could afford.

Well desperate attempts can lead to anything as history thought us coughRusso-Turkish alliance vs Egypt cough...

Jokes aside, Greater Bulgaria within Russian influence, the Serbia coup of 1903... after 1903 Austria-Hungary would be paranoid as all their neighbours except Switzerland are hostile. Considering a Russo-German alliance is there as well.

 

[TRH]

With Obradovic dynasty ruling... yes. But if Karađordevic dynasty takes over then the odds are changed as Austria-Hungary has an entirely hostile South. Greater Bulgaria might even be a new ally then... depending on the latter and its relationship with Russia.

Greater Bulgaria would still be a less valuable ally than Austria-Hungary, so if the Three Emperor's Alliance holds, then they'd be ill-advised to antagonize Vienna too much.

 

[alexmilman]

Well desperate attempts can lead to anything as history thought us coughRusso-Turkish alliance vs Egypt cough...

Well, don't forget Russo-Turkish alliance against French Republic which resulted in creation of a republic sponsored both by the Russian and Ottoman empires (Septinsular Republic), which sounds as an oxymoron.

Jokes aside, Greater Bulgaria within Russian influence, the Serbia coup of 1903... after 1903 Austria-Hungary would be paranoid as all their neighbours except Switzerland are hostile. Considering a Russo-German alliance is there as well.

Well, if A-H is a member of Dreikaiserbund then it surely should not be afraid of Serbia and Bulgaria (I'd dare to say that a chance of the Serbian troops marching along Kärntner Strasse had been quite low, anyway ). The only remaining enemy worthy of a serious consideration would be Italy and if A-H is not involved into any other war, it would probably be able to hold its ground.

As for the general notion of the "interests on the Balkans", I honestly can't consider it as just a popular type of a paranoia. None of the Great Powers competing in the region had any serious economic interests there (as I understand, serious mining was not going on in the late XIX - early XX) and as far as the strategic interests had been involved, they were mostly dead after the Ottoman Empire ceased to be Europe's scarecrow. Sphere of influence makes practical sense if you can get something out of it, not if you have to take care of it.

 

[Black]

Greater Bulgaria would still be a less valuable ally than Austria-Hungary, so if the Three Emperor's Alliance holds, then they'd be ill-advised to antagonize Vienna too much.

Bulgaria at first would likely be pretty weak, but I expect would be the most powerful country in the region in a couple decades (excluding the ottomans)

 

[TRH]

Bulgaria at first would likely be pretty weak, but I expect would be the most powerful country in the region in a couple decades (excluding the ottomans)

OTL Bulgaria had less than a tenth of A-H's population in 1914. These borders aren't enough to change that significantly.

 

[alexmilman]

OTL Bulgaria had less than a tenth of A-H's population in 1914. These borders aren't enough to change that significantly.

And in the case of the Alliance of 3 Emperors still being in existence, none of the Balkan countries is going to war against AH.

 

[WunWun]

What about a four emperor's league ?
Two Kaiser's and two tsars? Is that a possibility or plain ASB? don't know enough about the time period so couldn't say myself.

 

[alexmilman]

What about a four emperor's league ?
Two Kaiser's and two tsars? Is that a possibility or plain ASB? don't know enough about the time period so couldn't say myself.

Which 2 emperors and which 2 tsars?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Which 2 emperors and which 2 tsars?

The Bulgarian Tsar

 

[GauchoBadger]

Why would Austria-Hungary object to a bigger Bulgaria? They have no territorial claims against the Bulgarian state, and the latter can be quite useful as a deterrent to the Serbians (and maybe also the Romanians), keeping them contained and neutral.

 

[Vanity 6]

Agree. This would have contained Serbia and checked Romania. Bonus—Bulgaria has a mind of its own and is not a Russian puppet after all.

 

[TRH]

The Bulgarian Tsar

Think he was asking about specific individuals.