Personally at this time (collapse of the USSR,90s) ,im conflicted in that Bush is better for foregin policy but Dole would be better at supreme Court picks.
Trailblazing to Victory: The Ramifications of America's First Woman President
- Thread starter Sombergen
- Start date
This is such a great honor coming from you.
Thanks! Your graphics are still some of the best on this site.
Bush made some, interesting, Supreme Court picks. Looking at you Souter
.
It's obviously far too late, but I'm going to have to echo this knowing what I know about Robertson and how he was .... 'perceived' in Republican circles at the time. There is no circumstance in which Dole would have agreed to run alongside a man like Robertson, and conversely there is no way Dole and Robertson would have been able to hold onto all their delegates to push through their nominations (something often overlooked when tickets of this nature are talked about). There is also the laundry list that is the number of controversies related to Pat Robertson that the Democrats could play up, whether his defense of Jimmy Swaggart and claims that it was a conspiracy orchestrated by the Bush campaign, his support for the lifting of sanction on South Africa and decrying African-Americans' "obsession over it", his claims to have altered the path of Hurricane Gloria through prayer (which then devastated New York and much of New England), professed belief that only Christians and Jews should have any influence in government (even though that contrasts with earlier marks where Jews and some Christians were dropped), recognition of the Contras as the legitimate Nicaraguan government, and so on and so on.
While they are often cited as not making a difference, having a candidate like that on the ticket would do immense damage to its credibility except among those who agree with those positions, and I'd find it hard to believe that Dole or his handlers would not take notice of this. If somehow they were both nominated, they'd be raked repeatedly across the floor by the Ferraro campaign, with Republican and Independent defectors granting her a landslide, not the close election that is currently being portrayed.
While they are often cited as not making a difference, having a candidate like that on the ticket would do immense damage to its credibility except among those who agree with those positions, and I'd find it hard to believe that Dole or his handlers would not take notice of this. If somehow they were both nominated, they'd be raked repeatedly across the floor by the Ferraro campaign, with Republican and Independent defectors granting her a landslide, not the close election that is currently being portrayed.
Seems like that is what would have happened, but Ferraro kept getting hit with scandal and flubbed the first debate. While It is unlikely Robertson would have gotten the nod, if Dole thought it was the only way to be President, he might have done it.
Decision '88 (Part 5)
Decision ’88 (Part 5)
11:00pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “Welcome back as we continue our coverage of one of the closest elections in the past thirty years. Bob Dole and Geraldine Ferraro are in a tight race to become the 41st President of the United States and the race, at this hour, still remains too close to call. Over the closing days of this campaign there was some speculation that the indictment of Ferraro’s husband would signal the end of her campaign and a sweeping victory for Bob Dole even as the polls still predicted the race to be extremely close. It’s become clear tonight that Ferraro is still in this with key victories in the states of Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Wisconsin and tight races in Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri showing that she’s far from out of this race. Meanwhile Bob Dole remains nearly 60 Electoral Votes from victory but the question remains where will these 60 Votes come from? California will remain crucial to a victory for either one of them and with polls closing there now, along with those states in the Pacific Northwest, this election is set to go into the early hours of the morning.
Now, we can make two projections at this hour, first in the state of Idaho…”
Tom Brokaw: “…where NBC News can project that Sen. Dole will emerge victorious, putting all 4 Electoral Votes in this reliably Republican state in his column tonight..."
Tom Brokaw: “…as another Western state lights up blue for Sen. Dole. And in the state of Oregon…”
Tom Brokaw: “…we can project that Geraldine Ferraro will be the winner in Oregon with its 7 Electoral Votes going to her. Oregon has not voted for a Democrat since 1964, although Jimmy Carter came within 2,000 votes of victory there in 1976. Well tonight it’s now going Democratic after they've lost it in the last five elections…”
Tom Brokaw: “…and lights up red for Ferraro this evening.
Looking at the Electoral Vote…”
Tom Brokaw: “…we can see that Bob Dole is now up to 209 Electoral Votes – just 61 away from the necessary 270 – while Ferraro is at 144 Electoral Votes.
And in the popular vote…”
Tom Brokaw: “…with nearly half in and the spread between Dole and Ferraro is 2 points, with Dole ahead by a little more than 710,000 votes at this hour. We could very well end up in a situation where the winner of the popular vote does not end up as the next president, something that hasn't happened since 1888, exactly 100 years ago, since the popular vote only matters at the state level.”
11:07pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “Now to NBC’s Garrick Utley with some projections for us in several Senate and gubernatorial elections.
Garrick Utley: “Yes, Tom, first in the state of Washington where the incumbent governor…”
*A few moments later*
Garrick Utley: “…and we can now make a projection in the hotly contested Senate race in the state of Mississippi…”
Garrick Utley: “…where we can now project that Trent Lott will defeat Fmr. Mississippi Governor Bill Allain to replace the retiring Senator John Stennis and pick up another seat for the Republicans tonight. Bill Allain tried to run on his record as governor but was battered by Lott with accusations that he was a liberal who was too aligned with Geraldine Ferraro, a line of attack that seems to have worked in a state where Ferraro is not that popular. With this gain for the Republicans there is currently no net change in the composition of the Senate although we are still closely watching competitive Senate races in Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada, California, Washington and a potential upset in the state of Wyoming so we won’t know the final results of the Senate for some time.”
11:13pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “NBC’s Connie Chung has been looking at how and why people are voting tonight - what have you found, Connie?”
Connie Chung: “Tom, you know somebody said the difference between Republicans and Democrats is that when Republicans get rich they become Senators; when Democrats become rich they become Republicans. So we wanted to look at income levels – how did they vote. The upper income, $50,000 or more, tended to vote Dole. The lower income – under $20,000 – voted for Ferraro. What about the middle income? They make up 51% of the electorate. This election basically hinges on this middle-income group with household incomes of between $20,000 and $50,000. I talked with some middle-income voters…”
*A few moments later*
Connie Chung: “Now both candidates have tried to appeal to middle-income voters. Dole with his pledge not to raise taxes, his focus on a strong national defense, and his promises to protect Social Security; Ferraro with her pledge to get tough on crime, her focus on improving America’s education system, and her promises to protect the environment. Lets see how the middle-income voters voted in our exit poll, lets take a look at these figures.”
Connie Chung: “According to our exit poll middle-income voters have split evenly between Dole and Ferraro, Dole winning 50% and Ferraro winning 50%. If you want to know why this election is so close I think you’ve got your answer right there.”
11:17pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “We want to show you right now what’s going on with the popular vote in some of those states that are currently too close to call at this hour. Lets begin with the state of New Jersey…”
Tom Brokaw: “…where a little over three-quarters of the vote is in and it’s currently a dead heat between Ferraro and Dole, a little more than 20,000 votes separating them in the state. Still too close for us to call. In Missouri...”
Tom Brokaw: “…also about three-quarters of the vote in and the spread is 2 points between Ferraro and Dole but Ferraro is still in the lead. We still can’t make a projection here at this hour. In Michigan…”
Tom Brokaw: “…a vital state for Ferraro and it’s currently a flat tie with 43% of the vote in, about 50% a piece with only 15,000 votes separating them. Now we turn to Ohio…”
Tom Brokaw: “…with 72% of the vote counted and, there it is again, another flat tie between Bob Dole and Geraldine Ferraro with only a little more than 25,000 between them at this time. And finally in Illinois…”
Tom Brokaw: “…where Ferraro continues to hold big hopes and, with 47% of the vote reporting, she currently holds on to a sizable 6 point lead but our analysts still think we need to wait for more votes to come in before we can project that state.
And that’s where the vote stands in these key battleground states that could very well make either Bob Dole or Gerry Ferraro the next President of the United States.”
11:32pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “We now have a major projection to make in the important battleground state of Illinois, one that has been very tightly contested over the course of this election, where…”
If we look at where the Electoral Vote count now stands…”
John Chancellor, it’s looking like we might not know who the winner is until the sun comes up tomorrow morning.”
John Chancellor: “It certainly is, this election is turning out to be as close as 1976, perhaps even as close as 1960 when you had John Kennedy and Dick Nixon up against each other. But the voters have been telling us in the exit poll data that they want change – 52% of those who voted today said it was time for change – but it seems some of them are very divided on which of these two candidates would bring change. It’s an argument that both Sen. Dole and Geraldine Ferraro were making on the campaign trail and it seems that the voters today think both of them will bring change.
I think it’s interesting, though, to note that Ferraro has been picking up a lot of states that Democrats haven’t won in years – Connecticut, Illinois, and Oregon to name a few – which I don’t think is a good sign for Bob Dole. These are all states that have elected moderate-to-liberal Republicans over the years but this year have broken for the Democrats. Dole has always lauded himself as someone who can reach across the aisle to Democrats and independents but he has very much lacked any sort of affirmative vision to present to the American people, not to mention the consternation among some Republicans toward Pat Robertson and his religiously-based rhetoric has pushed many away from Dole. We’ll have to see whether this or his sex scandal have affected the vote in several important states that remain too close for us to call.”
11:45pm EST
Tom Brokaw: “At this time we can make yet another projection in a key battleground state, this time in Delaware…”
So now the Electoral Vote count at this time…”
Garrick Utley has some results for us in a key Senate race, Garrick.”
Garrick Utley: “Tom, we can now make a projection in the Senate race in the state of Rhode Island where incumbent Republican Senator John Chafee has been facing a stiff challenge from Providence Mayor Joseph Paolino.”
Last edited:
I'll be honest in saying that it takes quite a bit of suspension of disbelief to accept Dole picking Robertson as his running mate, something that he was very reluctant to do in the first place and was basically forced into the position of accepting or else let Bush or Dick Thornburgh win the nomination (something I imagine he might have actually preferred to picking Robertson as his running mate). One could even question whether Robertson would even want to be VP rather than at the top of the ticket, an equally fair assertion. However, I took the position that Dole was desperate enough to win the nomination to make Robertson his running mate and stay in the game even if it was a very bad idea.
As to it being close rather than a landslide for Ferraro, she is a flawed candidate herself with all of her husband's business dealings coming out into the open and leaving her vulnerable to attacks on her integrity and ethics (and also taking advantage of ethnic stereotypes regarding Italians). And his indictment certainly didn't help her that much in the closing days of the campaign either so that kept things close. She's also a woman which, you know, might not go down well with some people.
I think I'll make sure to do more research in the future so I can keep things plausible, as I prefer that this TL doesn't stray too much into the direction of having people act in a manner that would not be way too out-of-character for them. I hope this doesn't detract from the TL too much for you, though.
Ultimately, it's your decision whether you keep things in a TL. Many of us are obviously prepared to accept your choices because we're not only continuing to follow the TL, but are expressing our enjoyment of it. Keep going. Also, I've been thinking for some time that this election feels like 2016 in terms of two flawed tickets. I don't want to open this up to contemporary chat, am just making a brief analogy to explain how it could get so close and viable for either candidate despite major drawbacks.
Hoping for another update very soon.
Hoping for another update very soon.
Nah, it's fine. As I said, for me to make any real impact there I would have had to have caught it much earlier, and I'm not going to push hard on it. Whatever I may think of the plausibility, I find I'm more interested in those works that are written well rather than those written right, if you get me; the facts don't matter if the story doesn't grip me in the first place, like this one does.
With regards to Geraldine, I still have a lot of trouble seeing the race being particularly close. While the Democratic lead historically was a tad illusory, there still was a strong undercurrent politically that was in favor of the Democratic party; in the House elections that year the vote was almost the complete inverse of the Presidential vote, with the Democrats even picking up a couple seats padding their majority. While Ferraro certainly does have her drawbacks, I think that Dole would struggle to go after her the way that the Bush campaign went after Dukakis, and Robertson would do a lot to scare away the moderate voters who might have normally found Dole appealing. That's just my two cents.
With regards to Geraldine, I still have a lot of trouble seeing the race being particularly close. While the Democratic lead historically was a tad illusory, there still was a strong undercurrent politically that was in favor of the Democratic party; in the House elections that year the vote was almost the complete inverse of the Presidential vote, with the Democrats even picking up a couple seats padding their majority. While Ferraro certainly does have her drawbacks, I think that Dole would struggle to go after her the way that the Bush campaign went after Dukakis, and Robertson would do a lot to scare away the moderate voters who might have normally found Dole appealing. That's just my two cents.
I really appreciate your feedback but I'm glad you find the story engaging, enjoyable, and well-written. Feedback like this makes it worth the time and effort to keep this TL going. Your point is taken, though, and I will certainly not let plausibility stop me from telling the story I want to tell but I do want to make sure I reflect these RL people in a way that fits their personalities as best as I can given the limits on the information that I can obtain.
As to the election being close, I'm of the position that Reagan, despite the Iran-Contra affair, remains a relatively popular president and with tensions with the Soviet Union lower than they've been in the past as well as relatively low unemployment and economic growth chugging this would act as wind behind the backs of any Republican running to succeed Reagan in 1988. Dole, despite not being the most charismatic fellow or that likeable to many people, still has his own appeal to Democrats and independents and his experience in Washington is likely seen as an asset by some in comparison to Ferraro's relative inexperience. While Democrats have strength downballot that may be the lingering product of the New Deal coalition that is slowly starting to break down in much of the South, although with a Republican president and conservative Southern Democrats who are willing to work with him, that has made it more difficult for Republicans to make gains there so far. Ferraro herself has major liabilities - her husband being a real estate broker opens him up to attacks on his business dealings especially being an Italian-American, her previously mentioned inexperienced which is compounded by her gender, her gender as there's still many people at this time who are skeptical about a woman being able to handle the duties of the presidency, and her liberal stances on many social issues (abortion, women's rights, gun control, etc.) although not every issue - crime being a notable example - but this is not doing her any favors trying to appeal to many Reagan Democrats and moderate voters.
Dole has also hammered Ferraro on her husband's finances and purported ties to the Mafia - whether they're real or not - as a way of hurting her candidacy and undermining her integrity to voters who are looking for integrity to be restored to the presidency following the Iran-Contra affair. Ferraro would be doing better if not for that late breaking indictment of her husband, that really hurt her in the closing days of the campaign. Robertson is also a major concern for many voters, though, and this would be dominating the election if not for the personal scandals of Dole and Ferraro (or her husband in this case) that have clouded it a bit even as Robertson has continued to make controversial statements on the campaign trail.
8% being a large lead for the GOP candidate in Alabama.Tom Brokaw: “And in Alabama – remember when they used to call this the Solid South for the Democrats? Well now it’s the Solid South but for the GOP. With 13% of the vote counted we have a large lead for Bob Dole in the state.”
lol
Absolutely... Carter lost it by 1, Dukakis by 20, Clinton by 7. Eight points was sizable enough for sure
I'm pretty certain some of the areas that reported first were in the Black Belt and that's why it would be as narrow as that early on in the count. The final margin is much larger than that.
It's not 2008 though...it's 1988. Most of the New Dealers who kept Democrats competitive are still alive.
In 1988 Harvard Yard liberal Mike Dukakis got this map, even while losing by 20 points:
If I had to guess, I think the likely Dole winning margin would be 12-13 points, and Northern Alabama in particular would be less red.
