To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

[mayboro]

That isn’t entirely unrealistic in the short-term. But idk if the French people, who still remember that they were THE European power for hundreds of years, and once marched armies into Moscow, are going to permanently become “fatalistic.” Wary of challenging Germany again? Of course. Scared to commit to pan-European wars? Probably. Completely dejected and convinced that France is anything other than the greatest country on earth? Absolutely not. There are French people who complain, today, about German “domination” of the continent, and that’s after France won TWO world wars, and Germany stripped of large swathes of territory, much larger than A-L. The third republic will be correct and likely supported to act carefully in Europe, but any French government that acts like France is “finished” or “had their time in the sun, and it’s over now” will be overthrown. The French are to this day, even in the peak of American global hegemony, a very proud people. Any French government that does not act similarly proud of their place in the world will not long be seen as a legitimate government by the people of France. I don’t even think this requires an anti-German revanchist movement, as that will be almost certain to fail, but a France that, permanently, answers every beck and call from Germany or Britain, will likely be seen as little more than a foreign imposed puppet by the French.

I think you extrapolate too much from OTL to evaluate the ITTL political movement in France.

ITTL France lost two major conflicts against Germany, the first at a perceived zenith of their power and the second as part of an alliance of several great powers and even that was not enough to stand up to Germany.

This has an impact on how people see their own nation and how they perceive its place.

The Great War was one of the last chances for France to regain its place as one of the dominant land powers of Europe, which they tried to do OTL between the wars, ITTL they no longer have the chance, because unless Germany collapses, Germany will always be a more powerful nation than France because of the differences in economy and population.

OTL, unlike ITL, the French had several points in recent history that allowed them to reinforce their existing worldview.

Victory in the Great War, the fact that they sided with the victors of WW2 and cemented this position with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, their own nuclear deterrent and the fact that they were one of the leading nations in the predecessor organisations of the EU.

All this is missing and it is unclear to what extent the French government ITTL will be able to combine the desired perception with the current perceived perception.

The French are currently down, not only because they lost the war, but also because they were stabbed in the back by their ally England during the peace conferences. They have large war debts in foreign currency and their most important economic areas have been badly devastated. In such a situation, especially when there is no solution in sight, it is unfortunately not uncommon for people to leave political life and seek the safety and security of family.

This will only change when someone steps into the political arena who can offer a credible solution to the problems, whether he is a democrat, communist, fascist or monarchist.

 

[TheReformer]

I think there is an argument to be made for both of those cases. However, in this timeline when I say that the third Republic will 'survive', as you say, it'll do so due to massive apathy - but as you also say, that isn't going to last forever.

The third Republic will fall, it was doomed to in my view even without any world war. As a political structure, it was extremely ineffective and failed to have many, if any major political successes.

The real question more is when, into what, and how.

 

[Mayukh]

The third Republic will fall

The fourth also did fall.

 

[Andristan]

Im wondering what's going with the Czechoslovak Legion in Russia, and how this current Army without a home is going to impinge on A-H. They are currently retreating back to Vladivostok, but i doubt that France or Britain is particularly inclined to finance their journey to either country, the US could, being represented as freedom fighters and part american volunteers, I do not see anybody else wanting them. It would be real cool if Karl could figure out some amnesty for allegiance, use them to help suppress pro German rebels/rioters, polish separatists in the Zaolzie areas, etc. I really doubt this is at all plausible but it would be cool.

 

[TheReformer]

Im wondering what's going with the Czechoslovak Legion in Russia, and how this current Army without a home is going to impinge on A-H.

How lucky that the next update is about Russia then

 

[TheReformer]

Also, while I'm here, might as well note that while I do enjoy doing these very large, very in depth updates, once we're past about 1920 I'd expect updates to shorten to approx 2000 or so words and for them to be far less country specific. Reason being that I want to cover more ground etc, and I don't want to get bogged down in a single year given it's been six months of writing now and we're not even into 1920 really yet.

So I expect the format will become slightly different, and because the subject matter will be far less tied to reality I'll probably spend less time in updates providing extensive background and justifying my decisions in the lore.

Tis part of why I've been providing a lot of detail per country these last few months. Means that you guys all kind of know what the baseline is post war, so what happens after requires less explanation on my part and more just a mental accounting for the various factions and pressures at play etc.

 

[nagachate]

I'm curious if Monarchism gets a come back. Not all forms of French Monarchism were fascist in this period, From what I understand, and the Republic could be fatally undermined in legitimacy.

I mean, changing governments in response to disaster is France's thing

I'm rooting for François de la Rocque to create a presidential republic, like some proto-Gaullism.

 

[Kylia]

The fourth also did fall.

The most remarkable thing about France right now is that they're still just on the 5th Republic, so that scans.

 

[Athelstane]

The most remarkable thing about France right now is that they're still just on the 5th Republic, so that scans.

Truth to tell, the first republic really ought to have been considered three different ones, and arguably Vichy was its own republic, too (even if no postwar French government wanted it to count)... Which may be another way of saying the really impressive thing about the Third Republic is that it lasted as long as it did, especially with its revolving door premierships (57 in 69 years!).

 

[Mayukh]

Truth to tell, the first republic really ought to have been considered three different ones, and arguably Vichy was its own republic, too (even if no postwar French government wanted it to count)... Which may be another way of saying the really impressive thing about the Third Republic is that it lasted as long as it did, especially with its revolving door premierships (57 in 69 years!).

Began with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans. Ended with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans.

 

[Athelstane]

Began with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans. Ended with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans.

The French have always excelled at dramatic framing.

 

[TheReformer]

Began with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans. Ended with losing a Battle of Sedan to Germans.

I may be borrowing this

 

[Athelstane]

I may be borrowing this

I think the lesson here is this: Never park your republic between two German sedans.

 

[halfcoop]

Also, while I'm here, might as well note that while I do enjoy doing these very large, very in depth updates, once we're past about 1920 I'd expect updates to shorten to approx 2000 or so words and for them to be far less country specific. Reason being that I want to cover more ground etc, and I don't want to get bogged down in a single year given it's been six months of writing now and we're not even into 1920 really yet.

So I expect the format will become slightly different, and because the subject matter will be far less tied to reality I'll probably spend less time in updates providing extensive background and justifying my decisions in the lore.

Tis part of why I've been providing a lot of detail per country these last few months. Means that you guys all kind of know what the baseline is post war, so what happens after requires less explanation on my part and more just a mental accounting for the various factions and pressures at play etc.

makes sense

 

[KingSweden24]

I forgot about that, but you're right.

I see his reasoning, and it's not out of the bounds of reasonable possibilities. I admit that I'd have torched the Third Republic if it had been my timeline, but the truth is, I have a harder time getting my head around where the French national psyche would be in a scenario like this than I do any other great power's populace. I think this is the kind of thing I shrug off because everything else about the timeline is just so well executed (and he's certainly right that Caillaux's political career is immolated, at least).

The one thing I do know is that when Frenchmen are in doubt - well, in the cities, at any rate - they take to the streets. There will have to be an awful lot of taking to the streets right now. Maybe that doesn't equal "revolution" yet in The Reformer's mind. But God as my witness, I wouldn't be betting on this wrecked shell of a Third Republic seeing out the 1920's without at least some very major house renovation.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a Second Commune that, while perhaps defeated, nonetheless raises some very serious questions about the Third Republic’s long term prospects and radicals across the spectrum react accordingly

 

[Athelstane]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a Second Commune that, while perhaps defeated, nonetheless raises some very serious questions about the Third Republic’s long term prospects and radicals across the spectrum react accordingly

The ground might indeed be fertile for something like that...

 

[PeytonTucker]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a Second Commune that, while perhaps defeated, nonetheless raises some very serious questions about the Third Republic’s long term prospects and radicals across the spectrum react accordingly

I think it’s also quite relevant HOW any second commune is broken, and if it’s just Paris again or if it takes hold of perhaps most major cities and maybe even a few entire departments. If it collapses on its own or is crushed by the French government, probably just business as usual, communists will use it as an example of the capitalists denying the worker’s will, capitalists will use it to “prove” communism is unpopular, etc. but if it takes over large swathes of the country, and is put down by a foreign army, whether that be British or German or both, it becomes really easy for French communists to go to the nation and say “we would’ve won if it wasn’t for the international bourgeoisie, all of our nation’s ancient enemies shake in their boots at the thought of French communism, we must ensure our success against the foreign oligarchs if France is ever to be truly independent!” This could have huge effects on the ideological side of French communism, and on the average Frenchman’s view of communism in general, even more so if French capitalists welcome the intervention after it becomes apparent they can’t stop the revolution alone. Personally, even besides my own communist beliefs, I’d be very interested in seeing an explicitly communist French state. Russia and China, the two primary examples of major communist powers, went from largely feudal situations into a socialism that first had to industrialize, France is already an industrial country, and would be more in line with how Marx himself saw communism to develop, as in the industrial west, and then everywhere else.

 

[Basils]

Loving it so far. Like how no matter what Karl tries he is doomed to a struggle as there are just too many groups to try and please.

 

[boredviewer1234]

One interesting thing I'm rather curious about will be what Bulgaria does here, given they somehow managed to win a lot of what they wanted from the war.

Granted holding and beating down the minorities will be hard but in some ways the situation will be never be better, the Ottoman empire is rather isolated, Austria is crippled, Britain and France are soul searching and Russia is on fire while Germany is struggling along this period is the golden age for them to act in the Balkans, though they lost a lot in the war they might keep a lot of it.

 

[TheReformer]

Evening all and merry Christmas. Just to let those interested know; following my discussions with @Rion_marcus and their helpful insights, I've managed to do some extra reading and added a couple of bits regarding the socialists. I have accordingly amended the previous update to make these references, which are those quoted below.

Long story short, party has some political splitting, suffers from state repression and has a quite concentrated electorate - winning them 16 seats, for 15% of the vote.

Forming the United Party of Independence and '48, also confusingly referring to the 1848 failed revolution, Károlyi sought to play on his pro-peace credentials and call for a more radical shift in political power. However, Károlyi struggled to be taken seriously in political circles. While charismatic, he was a generally ineffective leader and considered by the country’s academics and political class to be something of a dimwit - weakening his effectiveness as a political leader. He did benefit from a lack of institutional acceptance of the still legal but otherwise repressed MSZDP - the Hungarian socialists. The MSZDP, or Social Democratic Party of Hungary, was led by the heavily mustachoid Manó Buchinger, and by 1918 was actually the largest party in hungary by membership alone. However, while it's membership was high, the MSZDP struggled to gain popularity among the nationalist peasantry and other sections of scoiety western socialist parties traditionally relied upon for votes. Instead they were wedded heavily to the trade unions movement, and the pacifist movement - popular primarily in the cities.

Buchinger and the party struggled in the elections for two reasons; first and foremost that their party was fairly leaderless. While officially leader of the bloc, Buchinger was relegated from the decision-making role in the spring of 1918 as the Austrians suddenly looked set to actually win the war thanks to the German offensive in France. While the party itself had been split on the question of war, by 1918 the party had become semi-collectively run by various senior officials such as Ernő Garami, Vilmos Böhm and Sándor Garbai - among others. This indecision, combined with the difficulties of the MSZDP's association with the leftist agitation of communists such as Imre Csernyák and Bela Kun - who had spent the final months of the war arranging soldiers protests and food riots at the behest of Lenin - painted a poor picture among the highly conservative, primarily agrarian Hungarian public. The party's relationship with the banned communists also caused internal division, sparking arguments between different wings seeking to cooperate with or outright oppose their more radical ideological colleagues - fearing backlash, or believing that splitting the left further would only damage the party's change at success further.

Károlyi’s United Party of Independence performed surprisingly well, going from Károlyi’s original peace group in the Parliament of around 20 MPs to 87 - and securing 22% of the vote. This would secure Károlyi’s position as leader of the opposition against the 48 Constitution Party under Wekerle, who took 233 seats and 46% of the votes - a healthy majority but one defined by Apponiy’s bloc which made up nearly 160 of the elected representatives.

The Catholics and Labourers would win 18 seats with 4% of the vote, and 2 seats with 2% of the vote respectively - gaining some parliamentary representation and generally defying the major parties but failing to make any significant splash. The more mainstream MSZDP socialist party meanwhile would gain a greater number of seats, winning in 16 urban constituencies by wide margins. However, the party's base being so tied to the trade unions movement meant that it's public popularity was very limited - and in a constituencies based electoral system therefore the bloc struggled to gain a large number of seats despite winning some 15% of the vote.

Apart from that, I'll likely touch on some stuff regarding Tisza in the next Austro-Hungarian update in due course.

Enjoy the holidays!