To Rise From the Earth: Alternate 'post-Apollo' space program

Actually, this is based on real life. IOTL, Voyager 1 could have been directed to fly by Saturn and go on to Pluto, but Titan was so darn interesting that they redirected it to fly by it very closely, incidentally delaying any Pluto flyby 25 years. That's part of the reason they wanted to do Cassini. ITTL, with two Voyagers placed to do it, they can keep the Pluto mission going.

And you get Voyagers 2 and 4 going Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune, launching in '79 (as per original TOPS/Grand Tour scheduling). Yep, twice as much Tritony goodness!
... Oh. OK :p
Because I just want to expand on the unmanned program a bit, ITTL Viking 1 landed successfully on July 4th, 1976 at Tritonis Lacus, which IOTL was an alternate landing site considered after the original site proved to be unmanageable. Yes, the landing was a pretty big deal. Due to slightly greater funding (due to the absence of Shuttle development), the "Wolf Traps" were able to fly ITTL, preventing Wolf Vishniac's tragic death in Antarctica in 1973, since he was busy with Viking.

Trés bon!

Both, actually! You get a British space agency which is a founding member of the European Space Agency when ELDO and ESRO merge in 1974. Said ESA is going to play an interesting role in the future...
I see... so we might actually be involved? And reap the benefits from weather and comms satellites that France did through Ariane OTL?
... excellent.
EDIT: Also, I just remembered: What effects might this have on science fiction, particularly Star Trek etc.? There are some obvious things (anything with space shuttles, for a start), but, for instance, TNG was first aired in 1987. ITTL, that's a bit late--the second space race heats up in '81, so it would make sense if it hit the air a couple years sooner. Particularly as I just realized I have one major event kicking that race off the same year Star Wars and CETK screened IOTL! That means Star Trek films are likely to be even more popular ITTL than IOTL.
Hmm... maybe we have Phase II instead of Star Trek: The Motion Picture? I Think the POD is early enough.
 
Okay, I have one more question. Does anyone have any ideas about plausible Western European astronauts for the period 1974-1978? Most of the OTL candidates were only selected towards the end of that period, and I want people who can fly by then. (preferably by '76: it's a busy year)
 
Well, if Britain is playing a role in the programme, what about this bloke (or someone like him, anyway):

http://thetartanterror.blogspot.com/2006/02/group-captain-harry-archer.html

He's had some involvement with the X-15 project, and plenty of test pilot experience. Of course, he'd be 46 in 1974, but Alan Shepard was 47 when he landed on the moon, and Deke Slayton was 51 when he flew ASTP...

Of course, you'd probably want some scientists as well as pilots...
 
Well, if Britain is playing a role in the programme, what about this bloke (or someone like him, anyway):

http://thetartanterror.blogspot.com/2006/02/group-captain-harry-archer.html

He's had some involvement with the X-15 project, and plenty of test pilot experience. Of course, he'd be 46 in 1974, but Alan Shepard was 47 when he landed on the moon, and Deke Slayton was 51 when he flew ASTP...

Of course, you'd probably want some scientists as well as pilots...

Well, but Slayton and Shepard were younger when they were actually selected. OTOH, it's probably moving away from the young test pilot approach anyways.
 
Well, but Slayton and Shepard were younger when they were actually selected.

True, true. They did both wait a LONG time, and go through a lot of medical stuff, for another flight (for a first flight, in Slayton's case). Then again, as you say, by the 70s-early 80s there were quite a few fortysomething astronauts, in fact the guys flying the early shuttle missions.

To be honest, I just Googled for halfway-likely candidates, and this name came up. There are probably much better ones.
 
As with the Poseidon name thats already taken by then.
the UGM-73 SLBM was named Poseidon.

Could of course name it Orion, or something like Zeus.
Something classical.
 
As with the Poseidon name thats already taken by then.
the UGM-73 SLBM was named Poseidon.

Could of course name it Orion, or something like Zeus.
Something classical.
Yeah, like the Titan... oh, already taken.
In fact, most of them already are, that's the problem I'm hitting.

How about Athena? I didn't realise, but she was apparently "the goddess of civilization, wisdom, strength, strategy, craft, justice and skill" as far as the ancient Greeks were concerned.

Civilisation, wisdom, strength, craft, skill.... they all seem appropriate for a massive engineering project to follow from Saturn :). I can imagine the speech now.


Note: Though currently/recently this was the name for a rocket launch family, obviously in the ATL that hasn't happened yet.
 
By the mid 1970s, Low was engaged in a prolonged campaign to limit the center's power and centralize authority in Washington. While this might limit flexibility, he felt preventing the infighting that had just begun to crop up at the end of the '60s as budgets began to fall and ensuring NASA spoke with one voice, as it were, to Congress were far more important goals in the long run. The Strategic Planning Group was an important weapon of his in this goal. As an all-NASA group dedicated to formulating overall development goals and plans, it was of course more beholden to the Administrator than any of the centers. Beyond that, he took measures specifically to make its decisions palatable to the centers, lulling them into dismantling independent planning capability and shunting them into fulfilling only the roles Headquarters desired...

At this time, SPG began to seriously analyze the distant future (at the time, the mid 1980s), and did not like what it found. There had long been a consensus in the group that space stations were the wave of the future. Cheaper than Moon flights, they nevertheless offered an arena in which the United States could successfully engage in manned space flight and demonstrate continuing abilities, besides returning much useful scientific data. However, currently the US relied on Skylab to carry forward that capability, and Skylab was not ideal. It was essentially a heavily modified S-IVB upper stage, and retained many traces of that heritage. It had limited ability to host varying experiments, and was not really designed for the long-endurance, constantly cycling missions that NASA now envisioned for it. Worse, it had a distinctly short lifespan, and was not predicted to be usable much past 1978. NASA possessed a practically identical backup, Skylab B, and a single remaining Saturn V which could hypothetically be used to extend the use of Skylab to about 1983, but after that there were no programs in place, and with the limited funding available it would probably take nearly that long to develop flight-capable hardware.

Accordingly, they recommended to Low that several programs be undertaken:
1. A study of small modular space stations constructed out of a few modules launched by Saturn II or some enhanced derivative. Such a station could be a cheap replacement for Skylab starting the 1980-1983 period, and might be expandable to become a major space platform. Also, the low cost of construction and launch might make it possible to orbit several for different purposes.

2. More advanced varieties of the Apollo spacecraft, in particular the addition of reusability and land landing. Both would help cut costs, the former by reducing the number of capsules NASA would need to procure, the latter by eliminating the costs of a return fleet for each mission. Ensuring adequate land ranges in the US would unfortunately require that missions be launched into less favorable orbits, but it was hoped that the designation of landing sites in Australia--with large tracts of relatively uninhabited land located north of 28 degrees south--would eliminate this issue. Further upgrades considered would be relatively minor enhancements to the capsule's electrical, mechanical, and electronic systems, and more significant ones to its overall capability, such as increasing the number of people the craft could reasonably carry to orbit and back to as many as six, or replacing the probe and drogue docking mechanism with a more flexible "androgynous" mechanism.

3. A study of advanced propulsion systems, particularly enhanced versions of the existing F-1A and J-2S. During the wind-down at the end of the 1960s, and especially after the end of the Shuttle program, development of new or more advanced rocket engines in the United States had practically stopped, except for the solids needed in ICBMs and to boost the military's big expendables. The Soviets, however, had not stopped working on liquid engines, and the SPG felt that the US needed to stay competitive in this field. Besides, larger payloads were needed for future variants of the venerable Apollo spacecraft, or for the proposed small modular space stations, and the cheapest way to do that would be to simply upgrade existing engines for higher performance.

The kernel of all later SPG thinking is present in this report. Absent are major, expensive projects; instead, upgrades to existing capabilities, small forward steps, and extensively proving current capabilities, combined with very in-depth studies of current problems are all key trends which are present in this report. In the poorer climate of the times, and the reluctance of then and later politicians to give large amounts of funding to NASA (witness the practical end of the lunar expedition program after 1990, with only 3 landings resulting), this was an effective policy to maintain and slowly extend NASA's capabilities, never passing beyond what was easily defensible in the budget, but has perhaps been overly conservative in some areas.

As a result of this report, a series of studies were let out over next several years to major aerospace firms to analyze options for future space stations, while the Block III spacecraft was upgraded by 1978 to Block IIIL with a land-landing capability provided by retrorockets firing in the seconds just before touchdown. Curiously, this was quite similar to the Soyuz system, though no evidence has come to light suggesting that either was influenced by the other, especially as the Apollo system was not in service until eleven years after the Soyuz. Certain internal components were redesigned to be at least removable for future use, and an Advanced Propulsion Department was established at Marshall. While all this proved important for later developments, it was all overshadowed by late 1976...

--Touching the Sky: History of Human Space Flight
 
Yeah, like the Titan... oh, already taken.
In fact, most of them already are, that's the problem I'm hitting.

How about Athena? I didn't realise, but she was apparently "the goddess of civilization, wisdom, strength, strategy, craft, justice and skill" as far as the ancient Greeks were concerned.

Civilisation, wisdom, strength, craft, skill.... they all seem appropriate for a massive engineering project to follow from Saturn :). I can imagine the speech now.


Note: Though currently/recently this was the name for a rocket launch family, obviously in the ATL that hasn't happened yet.

Oooh, sorry, I missed this one. No, I decided on Jupiter/Artemis. Aah, but there are still a few names left that I could use... ;)

Also, I've been a bit busy and wrote my updates a while ago. If you see something in the update that I've mentioned being otherwise in a recent (~this latest bout of posting) post, please mention it to me so I can fix it.
 
About Soviet future.
N1 at end had excellent engines, there are actually plans to use last series NK-33 engines on a modern privately developed rocket, they are that good.
But at that time they had started with huge QC issues, and software system needed to run all those engines together was a bitch to perfect. The design principle is not that weird, most Soviet rockets used a lot engines working together.
Still, however good engine NK-33 ended up being, it is too small to launch a Saturn V size rocket. You might get it working perfectly for a Soyuz or Proton sized vehicle, or some slightly larger ones.

Best option would be to partially follow OTL. N1 starting to show some progress but way to late, and gets canceled. Glushko gets to lead the program. Various UR-500 and Vulkan designs that ended up with OTL Energia. Now, without Buran wasting a lot of money and effort we could have Energia flying a bit earlier, especially if they don't need to start with a 100t to LEO version.
 
Oooh, sorry, I missed this one. No, I decided on Jupiter/Artemis. Aah, but there are still a few names left that I could use... ;)

Also, I've been a bit busy and wrote my updates a while ago. If you see something in the update that I've mentioned being otherwise in a recent (~this latest bout of posting) post, please mention it to me so I can fix it.
No problem
 
About Soviet future.
N1 at end had excellent engines, there are actually plans to use last series NK-33 engines on a modern privately developed rocket, they are that good.
But at that time they had started with huge QC issues, and software system needed to run all those engines together was a bitch to perfect. The design principle is not that weird, most Soviet rockets used a lot engines working together.
Still, however good engine NK-33 ended up being, it is too small to launch a Saturn V size rocket. You might get it working perfectly for a Soyuz or Proton sized vehicle, or some slightly larger ones.

Well, some of the engineers at OKB-1 disagreed with you. Also, test flight 4 was literally seconds away from staging. If it had staged and successfully gotten to orbit, it might very well have not been cancelled.

Best option would be to partially follow OTL. N1 starting to show some progress but way to late, and gets canceled. Glushko gets to lead the program. Various UR-500 and Vulkan designs that ended up with OTL Energia. Now, without Buran wasting a lot of money and effort we could have Energia flying a bit earlier, especially if they don't need to start with a 100t to LEO version.

Energia was too expensive and couldn't have been developed much faster than OTL (I have mentioned that according to Siddiqi, Energia/Buran was actually consuming >50% of the Soviet space budget during the 1980s, during which they were of course rather active, which should give you a hint about how darn expensive the thing was). Yes, if they scale it down it would be easier, but then they might as well just use Protons and Soyuzs. Even cheaper, very reliable, and no development required. The only plausible use would be a 60-80 t to orbit rocket, and without Buran to lift or another big program there's no real use for such a big vehicle. And without American pressure, there's not going to be another big program. And without Soviet pressure, there's not going to be American pressure (ITTL).

So, to tell an interesting story I need the Soviets to fly interesting missions (= big space stations and moon flights) so that a "Second Space Race" attitude emerges amongst the American public and in the US Congress. That way, they're willing to fund a return to the Moon and possibly beyond, plus developing a space station and better boosters. But to do that, I need the Soviets to be able to fly big boosters before 1980 to have plausible development schedules. But to do that, I can't use the Energia--even the overly optimistic initial schedules had it not flying until 1983! And to do that, I have to have a successful N1.

As you noted, the NK-33 and NK-43 are really good engines. And Mishin's people were pretty smart, and quite a few thought the N1 was "fixable". And I'm having the Soviets realize the, um, difficulties of it; it's not flying people, and it's going to blow up. And there is a very plausible butterfly/second point of departure during N1 7L. And after that was N1 8L, the first (much improved) N1F. So I think there's a reasonable chance the Soviets can fly the N1, and fly it successfully. And the story I want to tell requires it.
 
So, the US is going for its own version of Salyut, leading eventually to its own version of Mir? Sounds like a plan. :cool:

Although, we have that second moon program on the way...for which there will be the necessary rockets and advanced versions of Apollo technology already in place. Very nice!

I like Artemis as a name - I was thinking the other day that it would have been a good name for that Venus flyby program, because Artemis was the sister of Apollo, iirc...

And agreed on the N1 - from all that I've read on it, it seems that they'd just managed to iron the kinks out when it got canned. Would have been a better bet than Energia, certainly...
 
Forgive me for not knowing the difference, and not caring either.
;)
I'm beaming hungry tribbles into your pantry now.:p
Sedna and Rahab are good suggestions, BTW. Thanks!
TY.:cool: Glad to help.
What effects might this have on science fiction, particularly Star Trek etc.? There are some obvious things (anything with space shuttles, for a start), but, for instance, TNG was first aired in 1987. ITTL, that's a bit late--the second space race heats up in '81, so it would make sense if it hit the air a couple years sooner. Particularly as I just realized I have one major event kicking that race off the same year Star Wars and CETK screened IOTL! That means Star Trek films are likely to be even more popular ITTL than IOTL.
Would they, tho? I've wondered if, given real space flight/exploration, if SF of any kind wouldn't suffer by contrast. The "golden age" was a time when space flight was little more than a pipedream. The '60s, "ST" notwithstanding, were full of junk like "Lost in Space" & "The Jetsons". Am I wrong? (Needless to say, lifetime SF buff & longtime Trekker, so I have real pro-space bias, which is why I doubt my own vision is clear on the issue.)
 
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So, the US is going for its own version of Salyut, leading eventually to its own version of Mir? Sounds like a plan. :cool:

Sort of. I've been repeatedly crunching the numbers for the Moon landing, which is going to be a bit tricky. I'll go ahead a bore you with a few of the details now (with each of my ideas in order).

First, I thought of reactivating the Saturn V and using that to launch EOR/LOR missions with the Saturn II. However, I imagined the reaction of Congress to being told that 3 Saturn II and 1 Saturn V launch were needed for each Moon mission, and cringed. I also figured that between Station assembly (at the time, I was going with a semi-monolithic design with Skylab-size core modules and ISS-sized subsidiary modules) there would only be the need for around half a dozen or so Saturn Vs, which was most undesired. I didn't feel that that architecture would be sustainable.

Second, I thought of an all-Saturn II design. I figured that I would need around 7 flights per Moon flight and a large number of flights to build the station. That meant I needed extremely high launch rates; in the "maintenance" phase where construction had been stopped, there would be something like 33 flights per year, which would be difficult to achieve even with all 5 potential Saturn II pads (LC-34, LC-37, and LC-39, assuming no new construction) and converting all the Saturn IB and Saturn V integration facilities to Saturn II integration. So, I did need a semi-heavy-lift, but it would be best if it were more similar to Saturn II (didn't need dedicated pads and could use a lot of the same tooling).

So then I had my third (and current idea): the Saturn III! This is a 2 1/2 stage Saturn II, with the core stages stretched and two extra F-1s burning on the first stage in disposable pods (or perhaps parallel boosters). I figure I can get around 85 tons to orbit out of this (looking at numbers for the three-engine INT-20 and factoring in lower weight and improved technology). That's enough to have Skylab-size core modules and get a moon flight off in 3 flights or so (2 Saturn III, 1 Saturn II), but without needing a really expensive second production line or having to cut down existing pad infrastructure.

So, to sum it all up: Sort of. The idea is more like Mir with a really big core module. Maybe some other Salyut-type stations.

Although, we have that second moon program on the way...for which there will be the necessary rockets and advanced versions of Apollo technology already in place. Very nice!

Exactly.
 
So, super-Mir (or super-Skylab, depending on how you want to look at it); sounds good to me. Regarding what you were asking last week about European astronauts (spationauts?), does that mean there'll be an international dimension to it too, sort of an early ISS? I suppose once Reagan gets in, and the "second space race" kicks off, cooperation in space with the Soviets will be out of the question, at any rate.

I think the Saturn III is the way to go. On the one hand, restarting Saturn V production after so long would, as you say, be very expensive and very unpopular. On the other hand, 33 launches a year is way too high, so this way you split the difference. It's a derivative of the existing Saturn II, using the same tooling and facilities, and engines, and if you make its first stage and the strap-on boosters as reusable as possible, that's a selling point. Okay, recovering and refurbishing them might turn out to be very nearly as expensive as just building new ones, but at least it looks like you're trying to be economical! :D
 
Errr... Sedna may be the goddess of marine mammals - but she's also goddess of the underworld. You notice the minor planet with that name is dark and frozen.....

Well, I decided not to go with those selections anyhow. It was still a good selection.

I'm going to go ahead and post my next update (which I would usually have posted on Thursday) in a moment, because I have finals this week and next and I am imposing a partial Internet blackout on myself: You won't see me here again until the 12th.

JjeeporCreepor said:
So, super-Mir (or super-Skylab, depending on how you want to look at it); sounds good to me. Regarding what you were asking last week about European astronauts (spationauts?), does that mean there'll be an international dimension to it too, sort of an early ISS? I suppose once Reagan gets in, and the "second space race" kicks off, cooperation in space with the Soviets will be out of the question, at any rate.

Yeah, pretty much. My view is that the program is going to have a lot of similarities to "Freedom" IOTL, right down to the name. Among those is the inclusion of international cooperation. It cuts costs, after all.
 
Soviet Success!

SOVIETS LAUNCH "SPACE BASE" MIR! CARTER CONSIDERING RESPONSE

--New York Times headline, September 17th 1976

The launch last month of a new module for Mir, "Piroda", Russian for "Nature", has shown up serious flaws in the current NASA program. Under the current schedule, NASA will have no response to this large, expandable station until the mid-1980s, and even then it will be a poor competitor, with a much smaller crew and less ability to do any of things which Mir is doing. Until then, NASA will only be using Skylabs--old and inflexible technology to compete in space. It seems former Administrator Low's policy of directly competing with the Soviets in space stations without securing either a continuation of the Saturn V or the proposed Space Shuttle was a mistaken one, and we hope that the Carter administration will be able to effectively respond...

--Opinion piece in the Houston Post, May 1977

Today, the nation is facing an unprecedented challenge in space. The recent landing of two cosmonauts on the Moon and the orbiting of the space station Mir have made the United States appear to be weak and backwards in the eyes of the world...Many important questions must be asked about any future space program. Will it be sustained and sustainable, or will it fall prey to the same pressures that last led to the end of a vigorous outwards travelling program? Will it ensure the safety and success of our astronauts? How can we ensure it gives the greatest benefits for the lowest cost?...We must first establish a base in space, second return to the Moon--to stay--and third, journey onwards to what will be the greatest voyage of all time--the journey to Mars...

--1981 Special Address to the Joint Session of Congress, Ronald Reagan
 
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