TL-191 Confederate Victory in the Second Great War

The CSA under Featherston lost the initiative to win the war in the fall of 1942 when Confederate forces were unable to surround Pittsburgh. If they had surrounded Pittsburgh President LaFollet might have sued for peace. This is how the CSA under the Freedom Party could have won the war:



Launch Operation Coalscuttle earlier: The Confederates took away tens of thousands of troops from occupied Ohioan (U.S.) territory to defend northern Virginia against the U.S. counterattack led by General Daniel MacArthur. While it was important to defend northern Virginia and the Confederate capital of Richmond the Confederates should not have sent nearly so many men. The "damnyankees" bled their divisions dry just to move a few miles south. It would have been better for the Confederates to remain as they were in the fall of 1941 and allow the U.S. to take away some more Virginian territory but still hold them north of Richmond. Then in early 1942 (February/March ish) launch Operation Coalscuttle. This would be before months before Morrell came to command the U.S. defenses and more significantly before U.S troops receive the up-gunned barrels that significantly slow/blunt Patton's (Confederate) thrust east. So if the operation launches months earlier the Confederates would have been able to reach and surround Pittsburgh by early or mid June, at the latest early July, and from there take Pittsburgh with infantry and not risk the Confederate barrels (which remained superior to the U.S counter-part until early 1943 but were not in the numbers the U.S were able to field even by 1942). Pittsburgh is entirely taken by late July or early August 1942 (also during the defense for Pittsburgh General Irving Morrell is killed defending the city, the United States has just lost their best military officer). After Pittsburgh is taken, and along with all of Ohio, almost all of Pennsylvania (except for the eastern quarter which leads to Philadelphia in New Jersey) and portions of New York (the state) and parts of north western West Virginia Jake Featherston, dictator-president of the Confederacy sends another ultimatum to the U.S. Surrender or face more Confederate aggression.

Now I assume that despite all of these defeats (Operations Blackbeard and Coalscuttle being tremendous successes) President LaFollette will turn this offer down and remain defiant. Now Featherston realizes that with war reaching 1943 and despite two successful offensive campaigns on U.S. soil, and a successful defense in northern Virginia against a U.S. counter-attack, Confederate manpower (white and Hispanic) is stretched to the breaking point. He needs troops and quickly. Through the State Department Featherston pries 15 divisions from the Empire of Mexico and these troops will replace Confederate troops throughout the CSA that are fighting Negro rebels and guarding interior positions in Confederate territory. Featherston also pries the best 5 divisions of the Mexican Army and puts them in west Texas with the sole defending Confederate division to stop the slow moving American advance into west Texas led by General Dowling (his post and forces here are the exact same as in the books except the Army Air Force attachment is about half the size it was in the books, the other half are fighting over U.S. cities in north-east U.S. The 5 Mexican divisions and 1 Confederate division have virtually no air power and only Mark 3 barrels (the Mark 4 is being used near exclusively on the Virginian/Pennsylvanian fronts) but is enough to halt Dowling's offensive ten miles west of Lubbock.

Featherston promotes Lieutenant Nathan Forest III to a 4 star (full) General and Major General Patton to Lieutenant General. Mark 4 barrels are now fighting U.S. Mark 3 barrel which are now equal in strength except the U.S M3 barrel has slightly better cannon and mechanics but the Confederate Mark 4 super-barrel (King Tiger II/Panther essentially) is nearing mass production. Featherston and the Confederate General Staff realize that despite the tens of thousands of fresh Confederate white/Hispanic troops arriving to the front, due to the Mexican troops replacing them throughout the Confederacy, that the U.S still has a 3 to 1 manpower advantage and despite that the U.S industrial areas are severely damaged/occupied the U.S still can outproduce the Confederacy in terms of munitions, barrels and airplanes. Featherston has one last offensive in mind, it's all the Confederacy can muster.

After months of solidifying the supply train and replenishing C.S. Army divisions bloodied by combat and putting new divisions on the front line the Confederates are ready to launch their last offensive. It is all on the line. Win and the Confederacy will win the war, lose and all that the Confederates have won will be for naught.

During the 5 month gap between the closing success of Coalscuttle and the launch of the new Confederate offensive in early 1943 the Confederacy did two diplomatic triumphs.
1-Featherston was able to convince the British to send nearly a division (10,000) of troops to American occupied Canada to jump start the coming rebellion along with significant weapons and explosives.
2- Mormon Utah, supplied by Confederate Army Intelligence under the supervision of Major General Clarence Potter, declares Utah as Deseret, a free and independent nation. Immediately fighting between Mormon and U.S. forces begin throughout Utah and withing weeks most of Utah is under Mormon control, the U.S. Army detachment is about the same size of the Mormon forces but extremely stretched to the limit with little in the way of barrels and planes.
These two events will help the Confederacy in the coming days.

The U.S. has not been idle, more and more barrels are coming out of factories along with a new semi-automatic rifle to most front line units: S43 (imagine the German Gewehr-43 but American made built by Springfield Armory), American production is beginning to vastly outproduce the smaller Confederate industry and within a year the U.S will have unparalleled industrial supremacy in North America. Occupation troops in Canada are stripped to the bone and the U.S forces the Republic of Quebec to send nearly 50,000 men to occupy the English speaking Canada. U.S. Army engineers along with volunteer citizens begin building extensive fortifications in eastern Pennsylvania and throughout New Jersey leading all the way to Philadelphia, the de facto capital of the USA. The U.S. General Staff believe the Confederates will try and take Philadelphia as they did in the War of Secession.

On the misty morning of February 5th, 1943 the Confederate Army and Confederate Air Force launch Operation: Hammerhead. This is the last true Confederate reserves of men and barrels; Confederate planes are brought from all over the Confederacy leaving many border states with barely anything. This is the last offensive, all depends on this.

Confederate forces: 530 barrels (180 Mark 3s, 350 Mark 4s), 370,000 men (37 divisions) (all supplied with Automatic Tredegars and many with the new anti-barrel rocket), 300 airplanes, Hound Dog fighters, and Mule dive bombers along with normal bombers.

U.S. (American) forces: 720 barrels (520 Mark 2.5s, 200 Mark 3s), 700,000 men (many are veteran but the remainder are raw or occupation troops), and 680 planes.

However to the surprise of the U.S general Staff the Confederates do not head due east but rather south-east. Within days the Americans realize what is happening. The Confederates want to bypass the fortifications and head south-east to entrap West Virginia and to take Maryland and Delaware leaving nearly 300,000 American troops trapped in northern Virginia and southern Maryland. The Americans realize that if the troops are trapped and are defeated than the U.S would have lost the war. Barrels and men are rushed south to stop the Confederates from reaching the Atlantic as they had reached Lake Erie in the fall of 1941. Confederate anti-barrel rockets help Confederate infantrymen destroy large amounts o U.S. barrels

By early May the Confederates reach the Atlantic and take the city of Dover. The first units to reach the Atlantic are infantrymen under the command of Colonel Tom Colleton. The envelopment of 300,000 troops is a success. The bad weather that continues to occur hurts the American air forces and helps the Confederates. In northern Virginia, just 30 miles north of Richmond Confederate troops there are able to push the American troops back. This push north is spearheaded by 3 Freedom Party Guard divisions, the Fists of Freedom, they are called. The American troops are cut off from reinforcements and supplies and are quickly being defeated. General MacArthur is killed by a strafing Hound Dog.

By June 22nd, 1943 the Confederates have mostly defeated the surrounded American forces in Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia and northern Virginia. The Americans lose due to bad coordination, Automatic Tredegars the Confederates use, and the close coordination between the C.S. Army and Air Force, also the Confederates use their barrels better. After 3 full years of war the United States have suffered many defeats and support for the war is at an all time low.

President Charles W. LaFollette looks at the most updated map of the war: West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, northern Virginia and most of Pennsylvania is under Confederate control, the butternut color showing him the reality of the situation. Only a few Defeats on all fronts. The only good thing was the Confederates were severely overstretched and had suffered immense casualties, casualties they cannot replace. They had scraped the bottom of their manpower barrel. Brigadier General John Abell walked in and handed him a report. The casualties were staggering. Over 1.2 million soldiers dead, with another 350,000 captured or missing. Intelligence put Confederate losses at around 300,000 with another 150,000 captured or missing.

One of the other good things was General Dowling had finally captured Lubbock and was stopped just 70 miles outside Camp Determination where there was solid proof that the Confederates "Population Reduction" was real and massive. American minor attacks into northern Texas from Sequoya and small offensives into western Ohio showed that the Confederates were extremely stretched and some territory had been taken/liberated. Given another year the U.S. would be on the offensive and military analysts predicted the U.S. could regain the initiative by late 1944 or early 1945. Could. The key word. LaFollette sighed and slammed his fist on the laid out map under the War Department in Philadelphia. He felt a rumble, and another, and then another. It was the rumble or artillery, the Confederates were just outside artillery range, not the rumble of bombs from airplanes. No, this was the rumble from rockets. To date the Confederacy had launched nearly a hundred, most on Philadelphia. They were not all that accurate but they terrified the populace and caused wide-spread devastation. Another... Then another.

The C.S. Army is pushing north, inch by bloody inch, through the fortifications to reach Philadelphia. The U.S. Army still outnumbered the Confederates and armed with the S43 was evening out the disadvantage the Confederate soldier had at the beginning of the war. But Confederate bombers continued to bomb Philadelphia, New York City, Boston, Chicago and Toledo. Riots across the nation, antiwar riots, were on the rise. But there was one thing that could win the war quickly. A special project that Congresswoman Blackford continued to remind him about. Abell came back in the room with another report. His face grim. LaFollette read the report and threw it on the ground in despair.

Confederate Intelligence, under the recently promoted Lieutenant General Potter had found where the U.S. was conduction nuclear bomb research. Potter was able to sneak a squad of fanatical Freedom Party Guards near the facility. The FPG men used mortars and fire bombs and severely damaged the facility and kill many of the top scientists. The FPG men then sneak their way north to where Canada has now risen in open rebellion supported by the British.

The damage and loss of scientists at the nuclear research facility and the large scale rebellion in Canada puts the U.S. General Staff to rewrite their analyses. It is grim. Canada in rebellion, Utah having successfully seceded and being recognized by the Entente nations and with the Confederates quickly fortifying their positions on U.S. soil. Also another ten divisions of Mexican troops had arrived in Texas, some in the north to fight the Americans there and the the rest going to west Texas to push the Americans back from Camp Determination. Dowling howls for more reinforcements but the U.S. General Staff cannot spare any. His requests are politely ignored.

July 4th, 1943 passes in a somber mood in the U.S. LaFollette still yells defiance despite all the setbacks. However on July 17th, 1943 a Confederate rocket hits the Powell House killing many generals and Presidential staff members. LaFollette saw the writing on the wall.

On July 18th, 1943 the United States asked the Confederate States for a truce. Featherston is said to have yelled in triumph at the announcement. Featherston sends his Secretary of State to Philadelphia. After two days of hectic political fighting and arguments the Confederate Secretary of State announces that a peace has been secured.

July 20th, 1943 the Second Great War between the Confederate States of America and the United States of America is over. The Confederacy has won its third war over the United States. Death toll for the U.S. was near two and a half million (civilian and soldier combined). Confederate losses were 600,000 (500,000 were soldiers, the other 100,000 were civilians). The Treaty of Philadelphia is harsh. The U.S. is forced to cede all territory that had belonged to the Confederacy before the First Great War (this includes Kentucky, Sequoya, northern Virginia, the chunk of Sonora that the U.S. took and the portion of Arkansas that the U.S. took and all the small little chunks annexed to the U.S. after the Great War were returned to the CSA). The CSA also forces the USA to cede West Virginia which is re-united with Virginia. The U.S. would have to pay the all the damage that was inflicted on Confederate territory during the war and another $20 billion dollars. Much of the rest of the Treaty was a reversal of the policy the U.S. inflicted on the CSA after the First Great War. No new barrels, limited their industry, no military airplanes and limited Navy. All U.S. troops on Confederate territory are forced to return back to their country. Utah/Deseret would have to be recognized as an independent nation. Canada would remain in perpetual rebellion for near two years which the U.S. would finally be able to put down in mid August of 1944. The U.S. is forced to accept these or face further war.

Featherston is reported to have danced a jig outside the Gray House in Richmond when he heard the peace had been ratified. The war in Europe would continue for another year and a half and ended with a German victory but the Confederacy and Germany were too far away from each other. However Germany won the war in Europe with nuclear weapons and the lagging nuclear program is jump started and the Confederacy would have nukes by mid 1944.

With the C.S. victory over the United States Featherston turns his attention to finishing the Population Reduction. This would not be finished until late 1945, this was prolonged due to the newly acquired C.S. territories which had moderate Negro populations.

By October of 1945 Featherston announces the Population Reduction has been accomplished, nearly 13 million Negroes were killed along with another million "undesirables": cripples (physically born, not war or accident), mentally retarded, political enemies, homosexuals and the worst of the prison system the C.S. had not already eliminated. 14 million were killed and Featherston, Koenig, Goldman, and Pinkard are pleased. Pinkard is promoted to the newly created rank Chief Group Leader and oversees the severely diminished but still active concentration camp system (political enemies, homosexuals and the like will be sent to the camps when found out).

The Second Great War was officially over as of July 20th, 1943. The Freedom Party becomes even more powerful in the Confederacy and the confederacy becomes a superpower in a cold war with the United States and the European Central Powers, particularly Germany but Featherston realizes that the Confederate people do not want any more war but rather to defend themselves and to enforce the harsh Treaty on the U.S.


Thank you for reading this. I hope you enjoyed this. I know some things were stretched a bit but I don't think by all that much. I hope this was thought provoking and hopefully interesting.

-Tanner
 
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Stonewall

Banned
Such a devastating war would likely cripple both sides for good. I doubt either would truly be a world power after such losses.
 
True, but i think it could have happened if the Confederates had luck and had done a few things a little differently. The American population at the time, for the U.S. in the TL-191 scenario is probably 90 million or so while the Confederacy probably had 30-35 million people citizens (white/Hispanic) so the casualties, while devastating, where not completely crippling.
 
I can't help but feel like the Confederates would ask for more.

Perhaps not territorially too much for themselves, but the United States recognizing an independent Quebec and/or Canada would be practically a necessity for the Confederates IMO.
 
I can't help but feel like the Confederates would ask for more.

Perhaps not territorially too much for themselves, but the United States recognizing an independent Quebec and/or Canada would be practically a necessity for the Confederates IMO.

I see what you mean but the reason why I don't think they would recognize an independent Canada is because the European version of the Second Great War continues as planned in the books. England, France and Russia lose to Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. So without England i don't think the CSA would have had enough pull to make the U.S. recognize it. Because the U.S. in the end if they just hanged on for a year or so could have launched a counter-offensive to retake lost territory and the war would have lasted longer than in the books due to the even more weakened state of the U.S. and the amount of territory the C.S. occupied by mid 1943. So if the U.S. would have stayed with it and just kept fighting I think the U.S would have spent 1943/1944 defending the remaining U.S. territory and increasing production of barrels, weapons, planes and enlarging the Army. By 1945 the U.S. Army would launch a counter-attack clearing out the U.S. of Confederate troops. This is due because the U.S. still outnumbers the C.S. 2 and a half/3 to 1. I;m assuming due to the C.S. manpower being SEVERELY stretched by the end of Operation Hammerhead that despite building heavy fortifications that the U.S would push the C.S. out by mid or late 1945 and from late 1945 to early 1947 invade and slowly conquer the C.S.
BUT this is assuming no nukes were used, add nukes and all bets are off, I just don't know. The C.S. made them first in the books, but only one while the U.S. made many many more
 
BUT this is assuming no nukes were used, add nukes and all bets are off, I just don't know. The C.S. made them first in the books, but only one while the U.S. made many many more

No, the US made them first, the CS deployed them first. You'll recall how quickly the US paid back the West Side of Philly with Newport News, it was a matter of hours, a day at the most.
 
In a massive CSA victory, I think Jake would also want to annex Missouri and (maybe) New Mexico.
 
No, the US made them first, the CS deployed them first. You'll recall how quickly the US paid back the West Side of Philly with Newport News, it was a matter of hours, a day at the most.

oh that's right. I'm re-reading the series and am currently on Blood and Iron
 
In a massive CSA victory, I think Jake would also want to annex Missouri and (maybe) New Mexico.

Missouri was a border state during the War of Secession but had been in the U.S. since than, as a loyal state. West Virginia seems realistic to me because that was torn away from Virginia during the war so Featherston could say it was "Confederate by rights". While the U.S. was on the bad end for the entire war in this I still think the U.S. would have won within 2 years. The C.S. had scraped the bottom of the manpower barrel and the U.S. was making the S43s widespread and Confederate air power was severely stretched (imagine Germany's Luftwaffe in OTL WW2 in about early 1944). The real reason the U.S. surrenders is that while they would have won the war in the end the U.S. had suffered so many defeats and lost so many people and lost so much territory on the important fronts that the public became very anti-war, saw it as an unwinnable war. And with Morrell dead who would have led the U.S. barrels to tremendous victories.
But New Mexico? No the CSA never had claims on that as far as I know and Featherston's public statement on the war was to return former C.S. territory back to the CSA, he couldn't justify New Mexico. And both Missouri and New Mexico would have had massive U.S. undergrounds that even the ruthless Freedom Party would not have been able to quench for years if not decades.
 
In a massive CSA victory, I think Jake would also want to annex Missouri and (maybe) New Mexico.

While this is a massive victory it's not as massive as you think. Losing 600,000 people was less than the First Great War which was a million ish but that was the cream of the white/Hispanic Confederate troops. If the U.S. had kept going the U.S. territory would have been cleared of CSA troops by mid or late 1944 and 1945-1946 it would have been on Confederate territory. The U.S was still more of an industrial might than the CSA even by mid 1943 and the U.S. had the 2 1/2-3 to 1 manpower difference. So the victory might seem massive but a closer look shows how lucky the C.S. got
 
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