Timurid Wank - A posibility?

[Advernt]

Timur http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timur, or Tamerlane was a conqueror who established control over vast parts of the middle east , and central Asia , and was planning an invasion of China when he died in 1405 .

If he had survived another 30 years , in prime condition , would he have been able to build a longer lasting legacy?

How would the history of the world been affected , and would the Timurids survive much longer , creating many butterflies ( ie: First Mughal Emperor , Babur becomes a Timurid Empire instead , reviving a slowly dying dyansty for example )

Would the Russians have ever penetrated into Central Asia in that scenario ? Would India still fall under European domination ?

What about China ? Would the Ming Dynasty have fallen , and a sincized version of the Timurid Dynasty establish themselve in Beijing ( or would the capital be moven west? )

How would this have affected later history?

 

[Rockingham]

Recreated Mongol Empire...interesting. If he conquers China, vassalizes the golden horde(butterlying away united russia, perhaps?)... I would see a capital in central china....


It has potential, but is effects are rather like the concept of the "no mughal empire", after a while it will be composed of a lot of guesswork. I wonder if this could open up china more.... the Mongols attempted sea expansion from their chinese base, and the Timurs might want a naval link between their Iranian and Chinese territories. This could easily turn into a China-wank-not that we need another of those

 

[Hendryk]

An attempted Timurid invasion of China could have gone either of two ways. Given that the Ming dynasty in the early 1400s would have been a tough nut to crack, the attack could have led to China focusing its power on the pacification of its northern and western frontiers, leading to an earlier analog of the empire's expansion that in OTL took place under the early Qing three centuries later. This might also preempt the rise of the Manchus, or their early assimilation into the Chinese orbit and possible instrumentalization as China's shock cavalry (like the Cossacks in Russia).

Or it could have succeeded, leading to a gradual retreat of the empire to its southern heartlands as took place under the late Song. A probable side-effect of this would be a more sustained Ming attempt to secure its overseas sphere of influence to make up for the loss of its northern provinces. Given China's overwhelming naval superiority at the time, by the middle of the 15th century most of south-east Asia would have become permanently satellized.

Yep, it does seem like a potential Sinowank TL whichever way one looks at it

 

[maverick]

I once asked what would have happend had the Tamerlane conquered Constantinople.

People said that he was better has a conqueror than as an administrator, and thus his empire would have collapsed with his death.

Northern India or Asia Minor would have been interesting targets.

 

[Advernt]

But if he had more time , he might have been able to forge a much larger empire , possibly even forcing the Russian Duchies to kneel down to him , in the Georgians were humilated and devestated in multiple invasions by Timur .

How much of China could he have held at best? China north of the yellow river? There was almost no way he could have conquered , or at least held all of China .

Would China be as insular in such an event ? After the inevitable retreat of the Timurid Empire , and the Ming Recovery of Northen China , the chinese would definitely be much less inwardlooking , and less complacent . A sinowank , as mentioned before , might be the inevitable possibility.

The Timurid Empire should be able to hold on to Perisa , IMO , long enough , for Babur ( assuming he was not butterflied away ) to take power .

Is there a possibilty for a Persianized Timurid Empire to survive all the way into the mid 19th century - before the Timurids go down the road of the Safavids , and the OTL Sucessors , the Mughals?

 

[MerryPrankster]

One TL on this board had Timur conquer Italy (!) and Islamify it.

Which would probably involve the entire College of Cardinals, the Pope, and their staff being cemented up alive inside the Vatican, among other things.

Timur was a scum-bag.

 

[Thande]

Yep, it does seem like a potential Sinowank TL whichever way one looks at it

These things are rarely so predictable. Look at OTL about a thousand years earlier - the Chinese successfully repelling a Hunnish invasion results in the Huns going the other way, which in turn causes the Germans to invade Europe, precipitating the collapse of the Roman Empire and ultimately setting up the same Europe of divided nations which went on to overtake China, whereas it's debatable whether the Roman Empire could have done the same. "A blessing in disguise"

Come to think of it, would a Timurid invasion result in a balkanised China or just the old "invaders create new dynasty and within three generations are entirely Sinicised" thing?

 

[ThomasG]

When I read this title I got this picture of Timurid cannon armed Elephants from MTW2.

Now real life, Tamerlane had success mounting Ballistas and Catapults on his Elephants, but the recoil from cannons broke their backs and you don't want to know what the blast itself did. Those poor creatures (cry).

 

[Advernt]

A balkanized China ? What a scary thought .'Shudders'...

 

[Hendryk]

Come to think of it, would a Timurid invasion result in a balkanised China or just the old "invaders create new dynasty and within three generations are entirely Sinicised" thing?

Possibly both. The invasions that caused the collapse of the Han dynasty resulted in a number of petty kingdoms emerging from the ruins of the empire (much as in Europe after the fall of the Western Roman empire), in which the conquerors set themselves up as a ruling aristocracy, only to be culturally assimilated within a few generations. But China did remain divided for a while longer.

 

[Advernt]

Perhaps Timur might have eventually placed a puppet on the throne of China , ruling China in the same way he ruled through his puppet khans .

There is no way Timur could have conquered all of China , unless the Ming Dynasty collapsed in the south along with defeats in the north .

There might be a repeat of the Song - Jin phenomena just before Genghis Khan .

The Timurids might have eventually disintegrated , but we might be seeing a much larger Russian Empire ( If Timur did not obiliterate or invade Muscovy first ) .

How many years do you thing Timur needed to put at least northern China under his heel ?

Would he have turned to Europe next ? Remember , he crushed the Ottomans , whipped the Malmukes , and conquered Delhi .

Or would he have turned his eyes to India ( More likely , India was much richer than the west at that time ) .

Ironically , the collapse of the Timurids might coincide with the Birth of Imperialism in Europe , and the era immediately after the age of Exploration .

That might have created a massive power vaccumn all over Asia .

British China , British India , French China , Russian Mongolia , Korea , and Turkestan to add to their massive Siberian holdings , etc , etc ,etc .

 

[Othniel]

It has potential, but is effects are rather like the concept of the "no mughal empire", after a while it will be composed of a lot of guesswork.

That shouldn't be a problem if you take it step by step. You commit it to an action, note how the action changes them, and use that to predict their next course of action. Remeber there is no future just an ever changing present, if you aren't using hindsight to detrimine every single thing in your timeline...

 

[M79]

I think Timur will have trouble overwhelming the Chinese. However, his empire might be able to stave off Ottoman conquest of eastern Anatolia (maybe even route the Ottomans and play hell with the Balkan situation at the time, giving Constantinople another 5-10 years of life?) and keep Central Asia relevant for much longer. I think a much stronger Persia would eventually emerge that would take much of central Asia, modern Iraq, Arabia, and probably Afghanistan and Azerbaijan as well. Essentially one state from Egypt to Alexandretta to Baku to Samarkand to the Indus and back.

China under the Ming are forced to defend their frontier and might develop military technology much faster to keep up with the Timurids, especially if the latter start using gunpowder-based weaponry. India might unite effectively under the Mughals (or at least northern India/Pakistan/ Bangladesh) as a deterrant, though I'm not sure whether they will be as Muslim in this TL or if another religion might be able to outmaneuvar Islamic inroads into the region. Europe gets a wake-up call but does nothing unless directly attacked and Hungary emerges as a much stronger player in the Balkans since they don't have the Turks to worry about. Constantinople remains a weak city-state that does well under Constantine XI but finally dies under a much weaker Issacius III in 1476ish. Centuries later alternate histories about a revived Byzantium Empire and short-lived Timurid Empire are endlessly debated as the latter falls apart in 1915 after entering on the wrong side of a global war.

 

[Advernt]

I think Timur will have trouble overwhelming the Chinese. However, his empire might be able to stave off Ottoman conquest of eastern Anatolia (maybe even route the Ottomans and play hell with the Balkan situation at the time, giving Constantinople another 5-10 years of life?) and keep Central Asia relevant for much longer. I think a much stronger Persia would eventually emerge that would take much of central Asia, modern Iraq, Arabia, and probably Afghanistan and Azerbaijan as well. Essentially one state from Egypt to Alexandretta to Baku to Samarkand to the Indus and back.

China under the Ming are forced to defend their frontier and might develop military technology much faster to keep up with the Timurids, especially if the latter start using gunpowder-based weaponry. India might unite effectively under the Mughals (or at least northern India/Pakistan/ Bangladesh) as a deterrant, though I'm not sure whether they will be as Muslim in this TL or if another religion might be able to outmaneuvar Islamic inroads into the region. Europe gets a wake-up call but does nothing unless directly attacked and Hungary emerges as a much stronger player in the Balkans since they don't have the Turks to worry about. Constantinople remains a weak city-state that does well under Constantine XI but finally dies under a much weaker Issacius III in 1476ish. Centuries later alternate histories about a revived Byzantium Empire and short-lived Timurid Empire are endlessly debated as the latter falls apart in 1915 after entering on the wrong side of a global war.

By this time , he had utterly humilated Bayazid II the Thunderblot , the Ottoman Sultan at the time ( he defeated a massive European coliation at Nicopolis , IIRC , before being thrashed by Tamelame .

The Ottoman Empire took a generation to recover from that .

The Timurids falling apart in 1915? Why not in 1859 ? An ATL replacement of the Crimean war , where Central Asia becomes a low intensity battleground between Cazarist Russia ( Or Lituhania , or whichever power replaces Muscovy) , and Great Britan . It ends when Hungary joins the war with their slavic brothers .