Thoughts on Aztec / Inca invading europe

[pierman]

Ok, so this morning on BBC Radio 4 a french author plus some experts had a discussion on Andrew Marr's 'start the week' program. The discussion centered on the authors counter factual history book. The POD is that Norse explorers don't stop at North America but continue on to South America nearly 500 years before the Spanish. In doing so they spread disease (thus helping the south american people get immunity over time) and they teach the making of iron. I think he might have mentioned that they introduced horses, but I might have missed heard.
So, when the Spanish arrive instead of meeting a dysfunctional Aztec or Inca society that allows them to get native allies to beat the indigenous people, they meet a unified people who are able to slaughter the Spanish. The Aztec / Inca's then (apparently) learn how to build galleons and counter invade Spain.......
At this point I was shouting at the radio so I might have missed a few points, however thoughts anyone?

 

[Resurgam]

My thoughts in a word would be "...no."

My thoughts in more than a word would be "...noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo..."

What did Marr and the experts say?

 

[pierman]

The 'experts' said it was believable.... thought I was losing my mind hence why I came to the proper counter factual experts

 

[RedKing]

Hmm, if everything he mentions happens then maybe, though they would still be behind Europe technologically speaking.

 

[Resurgam]

Hmm, if everything he mentions happens then maybe, though they would still be behind Europe technologically speaking.

Agreed, but there's a lot of ifs there that have to link up perfectly. Especially getting immunity as opposed to just being wiped out.

 

[RedKing]

Agreed, but there's a lot of ifs there that have to link up perfectly. Especially getting immunity as opposed to just being wiped out.

Agreed, and even then, the immunity might not get far enough if there isn’t enough trade. I am lot sure if there was even that much iron accessible to the natives at the time.

 

[Resurgam]

Agreed, and even then, the immunity might not get far enough if there isn’t enough trade. I am lot sure if there was even that much iron accessible to the natives at the time.

My other major issue would be a unified people. They could just as easily be still fractured or annihilate each other, making things even easier for the Spanish.

 

[RedKing]

My other major issue would be a unified people. They could just as easily be still fractured or annihilate each other, making things even easier for the Spanish.

Well if a civilisation can pull an Iroquois it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

 

[pierman]

the experts also believed that they would find Europe divided down religious lines and they could take advantage of this? yes Europe was divided but not sure that European nations would ally with Aztec's or Inca's against other Europeans?

 

[Resurgam]

Well if a civilisation can pull an Iroquois it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying it's not guaranteed to pull together.

the experts also believed that they would find Europe divided down religious lines and they could take advantage of this? yes Europe was divided but not sure that European nations would ally with Aztec's or Inca's against other Europeans?

Now that is a hard sell.

"Hey, those guys invading us and sacrificing their captives seem like a good ally to have..."

 

[Resurgam]

Did this panel give any reason as to why the Inca/Aztecs decided to invade Europe?

 

[RedKing]

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying it's not guaranteed to pull together.

True, true, the Iroquois do seem to have been a bit of an oddity at the time.

 

[pierman]

Did this panel give any reason as to why the Inca/Aztecs decided to invade Europe?

Nope...

 

[Resurgam]

Nope...

...yeah, you kinda need a reason to launch such a massive amphibious invasion. Look how long it took the US to build up for landings during the world wars.

To say nothing of the fact you need to know where to go, how to get there, and what you're doing.

 

[Bregil]

Did this panel give any reason as to why the Inca/Aztecs decided to invade Europe?

This right here, I believe, is the biggest problem with this scenario. Technology and biology can more-or-less be hand-waved by various coincidental events (of varying plausibility) but that means little if there isn't a desire to go to Europe.

The European explorers and conquistadors were driven by highly populated states in search of new resources (and even then, did things "on the cheap" as it were). I don't see this being applicable in the New World as both the Aztecs and the Inca had vast swathes of land available for conquest and expansion should they ever get their political and/or logistical constraints dealt with.

As a similar example, China DID have the capability to mount large-scale amphibious invasions but institutionally lacked any interest in doing so. I have a hard time seeing either the Aztecs (who seemed quite happy with their status quo "Garland Wars" arrangement) or the Inca (whose society seemed to be much more stable) being interested in any kind of large naval enterprise (particularly of the size needed to invade Europe). Even the Mississippians who had a thriving Brown Water naval tradition across the Mississippi watershed seemed quite content to establish boundaries beyond which they had no interest in going. Generally speaking, if people don't want to go somewhere, they won't.

 

[Deleted member 114175]

The social-technological changes that would allow the Aztecs or Incas to invade Europe, would also cause those empires to collapse to their constituents or neighbors, it would be as radical a change as the Bronze Age Collapse at least.

Though, with a later POD in 1492 the Incas could probably survive discovery, reform by adopting Spanish technologies (started with Manco Inca), reunite gradually, centralize once again (a tall order but not impossible) and become a great power by the 1700s. When the whole world has WWI to WWII level technology, the Incas could intervene in a European war and participate in a naval invasion that the Incas lead though it would have to be in a larger alliance.

 

[stevej713]

The Aztec / Inca's then (apparently) learn how to build galleons and counter invade Spain.......

Um...I think the only sensible reaction to this would be "lol no". In order to invade Spain, the Aztecs would first need to know where Spain is, which would require a thorough understanding of geography. Then they would need to learn all the intricacies and hazards of deep sea navigation - learning how to build a ship is useless if nobody knows how to effectively command one. This is an example of "institutional knowledge" - the Age of Exploration was preceded by centuries of experience in sailing the Mediterranean, the North Sea, and the coast of Africa. By the time trans-Atlantic voyages began, the Europeans were able to build on the extensive foundation that had been laid for them. The Aztecs would not be able to simply pick it up like learning how to ride a bike.

 

[snerfuplz]

The real problem is disease. Even if the Aztecs were able to beat off the Cortez expedition, which is not impossible, they would be devastated by the numerous diseases that Europeans had spread.

 

[Falecius]

With a POD around 1000 AD involving massive disease waves through the Americas, there would be certainly no Aztec Empire, and almost certainly no recognisable Incan Empire, to begin with. You could of course have a large Mesoamerican state, and a large Andean one, both with better tech and Better immunity, but they are extremely unlikely to be able to muster the ability to stage a cross-Atlantic counter-invasion, let alone one that succeeds (even at landing). They won't resemble their historical counterparts anyway.
Now, we can try to develop a scenario, but it would be borderline ASB, at best.

 

[Falecius]

Another problem is that any Vinland settlement numerous and sustained enough to cause large technological and biological exchange would mean that Europeans already know about the Americas long before Columbus. The Spanish arrival would differ in timing and circumstances if it happens at all.