Third Reich SURVIVES World War II
- Thread starter tom
- Start date
Whilst lend-lease was important to the Soviet Union, it was not what tipped the balance. Hitler was probably doomed the minute he invaded Russia, his fate being certainly sealed by not going for an advantagous peace in the early weeks of the invasion.
Given the set PoD date, I guess 10-25% as this is before Barbarossa or even the Ardennes...plenty of time for Hitler to screw something up/get deposed or killed/otherwise be neutralized. Assuming a more reasonable Fuhrer (Hess? Goering?) a negotiated settlement might still be possible that allows a surviving 3rd Reich. This reich may be more Francoist in character, perhaps.
Or perhaps some butterflies in the UK keep Churchill out leading to a greater willingness to a settled peace.
Either way by that date Nazi victory is highly unlikely and, with Hitler still in charge and obsessed with total victory over Russia, impossible.
Or perhaps some butterflies in the UK keep Churchill out leading to a greater willingness to a settled peace.
Either way by that date Nazi victory is highly unlikely and, with Hitler still in charge and obsessed with total victory over Russia, impossible.
I'll note that I only gave the Nazi's at best 50-50 with a POD of 9/1/1939, no DOW on the US, and no lend-lease to the USSR. I'm allowing for more competent conduct of the war on the Eastern Front and in general; for that matter an alternate invasion date, or a different battle of France. There are an awful lot of butterflies there. A lot of them work out worse for the Nazi's, but there are some that work better.
If we pushed the POD to 6/22/1941 or after, I'd give them much lower odds. A lot of plans have been locked in, a lot of opportunities missed.
After OTL August of 1941, IMO their only realistic hope is to not declare war on the US; odds pre-DOW are 10%. Post DOW they drop to 1% or less. I'd say "zero" but nothing is that certain.
Again remember that this is odds of survival as a coherent state, not victory.
2%: Hitler _might_ be killed/deposed/eat some bad mushrooms and replaced by someone else and that someone else _might_ manage to pull off a peace in which the Nazi state survives, but it's unlikely: post fall of Poland, Hitler is unlikely to be deposed, Stalin's not a safe person to have at your back (and invading the USSR is a Bad Thing as well, especially after 1941), and if France falls, Roosevelt is going to get the US into the war somehow, sooner or later. And it's hard to prevent, with a POD in 1939, the US, with British urging, from developing some sort of Manhattan project...
Bruce
Bruce
I went with 25% (actually something between 10-25%). I based this on the presumption that from 1939 to 1945, the probability and opportunity for German victory steadily decreases as the anti-axis alliance gets larger and its committment to unconditional surrender increases. For arguments' sake, here's a year by year blow:
1939 - 50% (USSR an effective German ally, Western allies poorly prepared, reasonably good opportunity for negotiated peace)
1940 - 75% (USSR still on sidelines, collapse of France, Britain on ropes, Italy joins. Opportunity for negotiated peace best ever.
1941 - 30% (USSR now in war but in bad shape, Germany doing well in North Africa and Balkans. However US entry is a virtual certainty and with US industrial output UK and USSR can't be defeated.
1942 - 10% Pretty hopeless now that US is in war and USSR has shown its ability to absorb repeated German offenses. Japan's entry is a non-factor in Germany's favor.
1943 - 5% Even more hopeless.
1944 - 10% bumped chances up because outcome of Normandy Invasion could conceivably have affected UK or US willingness to consider separate peace.
1945 - 0%
1939 - 50% (USSR an effective German ally, Western allies poorly prepared, reasonably good opportunity for negotiated peace)
1940 - 75% (USSR still on sidelines, collapse of France, Britain on ropes, Italy joins. Opportunity for negotiated peace best ever.
1941 - 30% (USSR now in war but in bad shape, Germany doing well in North Africa and Balkans. However US entry is a virtual certainty and with US industrial output UK and USSR can't be defeated.
1942 - 10% Pretty hopeless now that US is in war and USSR has shown its ability to absorb repeated German offenses. Japan's entry is a non-factor in Germany's favor.
1943 - 5% Even more hopeless.
1944 - 10% bumped chances up because outcome of Normandy Invasion could conceivably have affected UK or US willingness to consider separate peace.
1945 - 0%
I think those numbers are a bit high, but 1939 and 1940 in particular are inconsistent with the rest of your numbers. The invasion of the Soviet Union was a core part of Nazi ideology and only the exceedingly unlikely circumstance of Hitler just dropping dead and being replaced by someone sane (and it's not clear Goering is sane enough) and the just as unlikely probability of an acceptable peace offer being given to the Western Allies could bump it up from 1941.
On the other hand, both Fall Gelb/Fall Rot and Barbarossa went about as well as it is concievable for them to go, and would have gone worse in most alternate timelines. Which I guess brings up the possibility of the German war effort just collapsing early on without taking France and the leadership getting out of the war with whatever they could get and but managing to stay in power. But I'm pretty sure a defeat that early would lead to either revolution or a coup by the Army, neither of which ends in a surviving Nazi Germany.
Huh? Are you talking the post-surrender period? I wouldn't qualify that as "some meaningful form" as per the OP.
I voted 10% due to the simple fact that there is a ctually quite a sizeable probability that Hitler dies from assassination or due to poor health.
archaeogeek
Banned
I voted 1%; Manstein's "I could have beaten the commie untermenschen" bullshit is post-war puffing up. If Hitler is removed during the war but the nazis remain, the successor will be someone like Göring, Göbbels or Himmler and thus be equally or even more insane than the Führer. The chances of Dönitz gaining power without the reich having fallen apart already are close to none.
There are alot of ways to have the Reich survive WW II. Most require Hitler to depart from this mortal coil by August of 1940.
Once the Soviets are engaged, the chances drop dramatically, once the U.S. enters the war they fall to virtually Zero (although the length of the war can vary considerably).
Once the Soviets are engaged, the chances drop dramatically, once the U.S. enters the war they fall to virtually Zero (although the length of the war can vary considerably).
I think it depends on what kind of POD are we talking about here...
Let's say if Hitler:
1. Declined to bail out Mussolini's Balkan/North African adventures (which means an earlier Barbarossa), and/or
2. Kept his focus on Moscow during Barbarossa
Could that knock the Soviets out of the war? If so, Nazi Germany might last long before disappearing under a wall of atomic fire...
Marc A
Let's say if Hitler:
1. Declined to bail out Mussolini's Balkan/North African adventures (which means an earlier Barbarossa), and/or
2. Kept his focus on Moscow during Barbarossa
Could that knock the Soviets out of the war? If so, Nazi Germany might last long before disappearing under a wall of atomic fire...
Marc A