The War That Came Even Earlier: WWII in 1936/37?!
- Thread starter Volsky
- Start date
The Joint Estimate of the Situation in War Plan Red did state that Japan being allied with Britain against the US would be a possibility if Britain decided to go to war against the US.
That rather ignores the Japanese were already distancing themselves from Britain & circa 1920-25 were more closely aligned economically with the US.
It is a prudent thought by military planning staff to look at the possibility of the Japanese returning top a alignment with Britain. Coversely the Japanese would have needed considerable economic incentives from Britain to compensate for their considerable and growing trade with the US being disrupted. Also Britain was a major player in the Concession system and colonial system in China and Asia. That was one of the points of contention between Japan and Britain, and the rest of the Europeans. The concession system in China restricted of channelized trade in China and Japanese efforts to participate suffered from a late start and European obstacles. Neither were the Europeans & specifically the English willing to allow the creation of a Japanese empire at their expense. There were few territories remaining unclaimed near Japan for its own colonial ambitions>. Nations like Britain and Russia lay directly athwart Japans most direct opportunities for a colonial empire.
So, while the half dozen officers in the US War Plans Division could and should look at every contingency no matter how outlandish, the Japanese had some hard economic realities about their allignments to consider.
It is a prudent thought by military planning staff to look at the possibility of the Japanese returning top a alignment with Britain. Coversely the Japanese would have needed considerable economic incentives from Britain to compensate for their considerable and growing trade with the US being disrupted. Also Britain was a major player in the Concession system and colonial system in China and Asia. That was one of the points of contention between Japan and Britain, and the rest of the Europeans. The concession system in China restricted of channelized trade in China and Japanese efforts to participate suffered from a late start and European obstacles. Neither were the Europeans & specifically the English willing to allow the creation of a Japanese empire at their expense. There were few territories remaining unclaimed near Japan for its own colonial ambitions>. Nations like Britain and Russia lay directly athwart Japans most direct opportunities for a colonial empire.
So, while the half dozen officers in the US War Plans Division could and should look at every contingency no matter how outlandish, the Japanese had some hard economic realities about their allignments to consider.
Im curious what Portugals trade in those with Spain might actually have been. I don't know much about Portugals grain or meat production, its fuel production, or tis arms industry.
Conversely many Japanese were put off by Britians opposition to the 'Twenty One Demands'. The Japanese assumed or felt Britian should have provided unequivocal support for Japans effort at expanding its colonial intrusion into China. This and other perceived failures to support Japans expansion caused a rethink of the Japan/Britian relationship. if status as a Brit client state did not bring the British support they felt entitled to then the alignment needed to be reconsidered. Fifteen years earlier many Japanese had the same feeling about less than all out Brit support in the Russo Japanese war.
Thats correct, but it cost years in building momentum.The NSDAP got popular in 1932 and won in 1933, the putsch was completely forgotten by everyone.
Nazi Party election results - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Not only the time in jail, but also the later ban on public speaking.
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Before 1929 his party won't be very popular as the economy is doing fine and he needs a little bit of time to become the n.1 party in Germany.
At the time Portugal was very agrarian, it didn't have any particular resources and the industry wasn't very developed; it doesn't have much to sell to Spain but that would help Portugal because otherwise the Brits will consider Portugal an enemy.
Wolfram had been mined in Portugal from the late 19th Century, but Spain had deposits as well, and its industry did not make large use of it. Looking at some rough numbers the Portuguese fishing industry did export to Europe, including Spain. Doesn't look like a volume enough to be strategically significant.
thaddeus
Donor
a French civil war prompted by and simultaneous to the Spanish Civil War. there could be a resulting French State an authoritarian regime, and a Latin Bloc of Italy, France, Spain, and possibly Vatican City and Portugal.
Germany could grab Austria during the chaos, support their trading partners Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey against Italy and its Latin Bloc partners? a 1937 Italian invasion of Yugoslavia?
I appreciate the feedback from everyone here. As I said in the OP, the...premise...of the entire story was rooted in a war taking place in the mid-1930s in order to showcase the contemporary technology and its meteoric rise as the world barreled toward the new decade.
With that having been the setting while having developed all my characters and plotlines, I've kinda backed myself into a corner.
The main characters were all born between 1911 and 1913, with tertiary characters being +/- 10 years. If I push the story back until the 1940s, then they'd be either in or very close to their 30s which would (I think) make the interpersonal plot harder to wrestle. Perhaps it wouldn't, but I've spent long enough on this that I'd rather not upset everything I've timed just-so in what has become a very finely-tuned plot.
Add to that a long, long list of more minute departures from OTL and some geographic changes for funsies, and I think I might be leaning toward historical fiction rather than alternate history. It appears that a "realistic" WWII setting really has to begin from 1939 or 1940 and basically follow what actually happened; not even Turtledove's Gibraltar plot seems to have as much merit as I once thought.
With that said, it's been nice to read about insights and ideas from everyone. Perhaps I'll post the story as it comes together in the writing subforum.
With that having been the setting while having developed all my characters and plotlines, I've kinda backed myself into a corner.
The main characters were all born between 1911 and 1913, with tertiary characters being +/- 10 years. If I push the story back until the 1940s, then they'd be either in or very close to their 30s which would (I think) make the interpersonal plot harder to wrestle. Perhaps it wouldn't, but I've spent long enough on this that I'd rather not upset everything I've timed just-so in what has become a very finely-tuned plot.
Add to that a long, long list of more minute departures from OTL and some geographic changes for funsies, and I think I might be leaning toward historical fiction rather than alternate history. It appears that a "realistic" WWII setting really has to begin from 1939 or 1940 and basically follow what actually happened; not even Turtledove's Gibraltar plot seems to have as much merit as I once thought.
With that said, it's been nice to read about insights and ideas from everyone. Perhaps I'll post the story as it comes together in the writing subforum.
Vatican City isn't a big fan of ultra-nationalists, Portugal would certainly have strong ties with the Latin Bloc but I don't see Salazar wanting to wage war.
Why would Germany support Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey? Hitler wouldn't see a point in doing that.
Italy wouldn't invade Yugoslavia, Mussolini wouldn't do this with the much more important French Civil War going on, also the Italians would certainly fail if they tried.
thaddeus
Donor
if Germany were the odd man out regarding any Latin Bloc, and Italy had a working relationship with an authoritarian regime in France (which we should remember is not likely to be pro-German), the Nazi regime might ally with the Italian target countries, Yugoslaiva, Greece, and Turkey.
an invasion of Yugoslavia was the military objective Italy had the most detailed planning for, while I agree with your assessment of the outcome the Italian view at the time would almost certainly be different.
Well during the French Civil War Mussolini is probably busy supporting the Nationalists, after the war I cannot predict what Mussolini would do but my guess is that he doesn't attack Yugoslavia