The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)

1.21: The Ottoman Revolution
XXI: The Ottoman Revolution
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Siege of Belgrade (1687)

Following Max Emanuel’s victory at Sabac, the immediate question was whether the Christian army should continue its withdrawal to the safety of Slavonia and Hungary or if it turned around for Belgrade. With the army of Sheitan Ibrahim shattered, the Ottomans no longer had any major field army in the northern Balkans. In other words, no Ottoman army existed that could inhibit the siege of Belgrade or threaten a relief of it. Although Belgrade retained a strong garrison and stout defenses those alone could not ensure its safety against the zealous and large Christan army of Charles of Lorraine and Max Emanuel. Naturally, the young Elector of Bavaria was inclined to take advantage of this rare window. If the Christians postponed a siege until the next campaign season then certainly they got time to reorganize but so did the Ottomans. Even if Max Emanuel had just smashed Sheitan Ibrahim’s army to pieces, it had been a tough and unlikely victory. Just days before, Sheitan Ibrahim had chased the Christians away from besieging Belgrade. If the Christians gave the Ottomans time to rebuild their army then maybe next year the Ottomans would defend Belgrade and know not to chase any further. In Max Emanuel’s mind, the Christians needed to strike Belgrade immediately while the Ottomans remained in disarray and disorder. Any delay risked catastrophe. Max Emanuel’s superior, Charles of Lorraine held the opposite opinion. The Christians may have defeated Sheitan Ibrahim but the cost was great. Many soldiers were wounded and some supplies had been lost in the mess of battle. All of which added to the penalties of attrition that a campaign incurred. The Christian army although intact was battered and it needed to recover before attacking the citadel of Belgrade. A special concern of Charles’s was the lateness in the season. Charles feared that the Christians were risking starting a siege that they could not finish before the weather became unfavorable. In which case the Christians would be throwing away lives for progress that they would forfeit anyways. Finally, with Sheitan Ibrahim’s army broken and Sheitan Ibrahim in chains, Charles doubted that the Ottomans would be putting another grand army in the field within the next year. The Ottomans had lost three grand armies in the course of five years, it was unthinkable that they could muster a fourth grand army in so little time as half a year. This line of thought became the center of debate between the two commanders. Max Emanuel was inclined to think that the fact that the Ottomans had kept building and losing armies was evidence of their unending manpower. Charles understood these losses to be unsustainable and thought that they were at or close to the Ottoman breaking point.

In the end, the debate was resolved by the intervention of others. The majority of subordinate commanders sided with the hero who had just saved the Christian army at Sabac rather than the man who watched the battle from across the river. Even though Sabac had ended in victory for the Christian army, many officers took issue with Charles of Lorraine’s command heading up to and during the battle. Chief among these officers was Ludwig Wilhelm of Baden who had consistently drawn himself closer to Max Emanuel and in opposition to Charles of Lorraine. Facing pressure from below, Charles of Lorraine gave in and consented to turn the army around [1]. However, Charles made it clear that he was uncomfortable with the idea. Charles reminded his subordinates including Max Emanuel of the month, August. The season was late and the army could not maintain a siege into the winter this far from their supply bases. September was the latest that Charles was willing to stay on this side of the Sava. If Belgrade did not fall by then, then Charles would order the withdrawal. When the Christians returned to Belgrade, Charles first attempted to negotiate the capitulation of Belgrade. The governor of Belgrade, Ibrahim Pasha, refused. Sure, the Grand Vizier was in chains and there was no hope for relief, but Ibrahim Pasha cared not. He had been tasked by the Sultan with the defense of Belgrade and he would offer a strong and honorable one whether a relief army existed or not. With grunts of frustration, Charles of Lorraine instructed his soldiers to dig siege lines and set up their artillery batteries. With prayer, Charles hoped that this show of force would convince Ibrahim Pasha to surrender, but it did not. Instead, the governor did just as he promised by organizing an impressive defense of Belgrade. Although there was no chance of relief, Ibrahim Pasha just like Charles knew that time was on the side of the Ottomans. With each sortie that knocked down a cannon or filled in a trench, he stole a day away from the Christians. All he had to do was steal enough days to buy winter’s respite.

After five weeks of siege, the Christians looked like they needed at least two weeks to break through Belgrade’s defenses. Those two weeks would take the siege into October, which Charles of Lorraine remained vehemently against. As it was, Charles wanted to leave already. The siege was not going to force Belgrade’s surrender anytime soon so Charles saw no point in wasting more time and resources. Max Emanuel refused to give up just yet. Charles had promised Max Emanuel until the end of September and Max Emanuel held him to that promise. However, the Bavarian had to accept the reality that Belgrade was not going to surrender before October and the siege was still some time away from breaking the walls down for an easy assault. But still holding on to the tingling of glory and triumph that he felt at Sabac, Max Emanuel could not bear to back down. If Belgrade would not surrender and if an easy assault was not at hand, then Max Emanuel would charge across the field and scale the walls by hand if he had to. He lusted for victory more than he ever lusted for his wife or any of his prettier mistresses. An inordinate desire to be great ebbed through the young man and that sensation drove him to request permission to launch an assault against Belgrade. Charles and even Ludwig Wilhelm were surprised by Max Emanuel’s request. Belgrade’s defenses were still too much intact for an assault. Thousands would die and even that did not guarantee victory. Charles shied from the thought of sending those men to death and did not wish to command any officer to lead such a horrific attack. But Max Emanuel was firm in his desire to have Belgrade assaulted. The citadel needed to fall. The Ottomans could not be given the opportunity to regroup and rebuild, Belgrade was the second city of B’s and its conquest would open the whole of the Balkans up to the introduction of Christianity. The Christians needed to take Belgrade, Max Emanuel needed to take it. And if Max Emanuel’s words were not enough evidence of his conviction then his request to personally lead the assault certainly was. Hesitantly, Charles of Lorraine gave in to Max Emanuel's unrelenting nature and authorized the attack.

At 4 am on September 25, 1687, the assault of Belgrade commenced at the command of Elector Max Emanuel. From three sides, the Christian soldiers attacked. One consisted of the Swabians led by Ludwig Wilhelm of Baden, another was a band of Austrians led by Jean Louis de Bussy Rabutin, and finally, there was Max Emanuel’s own Bavarians. The cover of darkness did not prevent the Ottomans from recognizing the attack and opening fire on all three divisions of the Christian assault. However, the earlier sermon of Marco d’Aviano combined with a speech by Max Emanuel gave the Christians the necessary fervor to push through the hail of enemy fire and reach the walls of Belgrade. Under the unrelenting volleys of Ottoman fire, the Christians scaled the walls of Belgrade and busted their way through the first line of Ottoman defenders. Through a force of will more so than anything else the Christians plunged through the Ottoman defenses and ripped them apart. However, just as the first Ottomans fell away and scampered backward, the Christians looked forward to discover a secondary wall that the Ottomans had built during the siege. At the sight of this second wall, the Christians' energy slackened, and then as the Christians were still processing their nearest obstacle the second wall’s defenders opened fire and tore through the Christians who were still scrambling over the first wall. Jean Louis de Bussy Rabutin had three bullets pass through his chest. As Rabutin and other orders were slain, the Christians grew disordered and Ibrahim Pasha ordered a counterattack determined to drive the Christians off Belgrade’s first wall. At that moment, the Christian assault might have fallen apart completely.

Instead, Max Emanuel charged to the very front of his soldiers and then jumped into a band of Ottomans after climbing up the rumble of Belgrade’s first wall. Surrounded by Ottomans, the Bavarian elector was unfazed. In a frenzy of Christian zealotry and individual glory-hunger, Max Emanuel cut through everyone around him and cleared the way for more of his men to reach the top of the wall and reestablish Christian control of it. Covered in cuts, Max Emanuel ignored his own blood and continued to lead his men from the front. Together, Max Emanuel and his soldiers stormed through the Ottoman counterattack and chased them onto the second wall. Ibrahim Pasha rushed more men to the second wall while pulling back his counterattacks against Rabutin and Baden’s divisions. Desperately, Ibrahim Pasha tried to stabilize his defense around the second wall. But desperation was not enough to stop the man in the blue coat. Max Emanuel continued to hack through Ottomans with his sword only stopping to throw punches and kicks. The fearsome elector was a sight of awe and inspiration for his men, just as he was during Sabac. The Bavarian soldiers simply overpowered and outmuscled the Ottomans in front of them. Eventually, the Ottomans broke and started to retreat through the city, but Max Emanuel was unrelenting and chased them through the streets. Only once Ibrahim Pasha had fallen behind the citadel’s walls did Max Emanuel have to pause. But that is all Max Emanuel was doing, pausing. Once his men had regrouped before the citadel’s walls, Max Emanuel gave the order for an assault against the untouched and unbroken citadel. Despite the rush with which Max Emanuel organized this assault, the Christians found their way onto the citadel walls. By this point, Ibrahim Pasha understood that nothing better than massacre awaited him if he continued to resist Max Emanuel. The governor of Belgrade hoisted a white flag to stop the fighting and then exited his hiding place to throw himself at the feet of Max Emanuel. Without condition, Belgrade surrendered to the Elector of Bavaria.

Once again, Max Emanuel won a significant victory. In the course of six hours, Max Emanuel conquered Belgrade and gained for Christendom the most important fortress in the northern Balkans. Max Emanuel’s victory was not without bloodshed. More than 3,000 Christians were sent to Heaven, but in sacrificing their lives in the name of their lord, they killed 6,000 Ottomans and earned the surrender of 7,000 more. Among the lost Christian souls were Jean Louis de Bussy Rabutin, Feldmarschall Lieutenant Graf von Scharffenberg, Feldmarschall Lieutenant Count von Thurn-Valsassina, and Field Watch Master Count von Furstenberg. All of which were excellent soldiers. The wounded were even more numerous and just as illustrious in name and deed. Max Emanuel had put his body on the line to take Belgrade and it showed with the numerous wounds he took. Still, the victory was a triumph for the Christian cause. With Belgrade in hand, the Christians secured another immense depot of Ottoman war supplies. Belgrade’s was even greater than Buda’s because when the Grand Vizier Sheitan Ibrahim marched north he had brought enough food, ammunitions, and guns so that it could support his army of 60,000 men. These captured goods would be more than enough to feed the Christian army and answer Charles of Lorraine’s concerns about surviving the winter. Furthermore, after the news of the capture of Belgrade, the garrisons of Smederevo and Galamboc just abandoned their posts and fled. Neither garrison wished to be the next victims of the unstoppable “Blue King” as the Ottomans named Max Emanuel. The Christians occupied both towns in the absence of Ottomans. Even if Belgrade was a costly victory, it was a grand one that only added to the growing renown of the Elector of Bavaria.

In the weeks that followed Sabac and Belgrade, the Ottoman position in Slavonia, Hungary, and Transylvania, for the most part, completely collapsed. Ludwig of Baden was tasked with securing Belgrade and overseeing repairs to the fortress, General Johann Heinrich von Dunewald went west to sure up control of the region by conquering Petrovaradin, Sremski Karlovci, Ilok, and Zvornik. In each place, only minor Ottoman resistance was found. The destruction of Ibrahim Sheitan’s army and the capture of Belgrade were critical setbacks for the Ottomans in the Balkans. Meanwhile, Charles of Lorraine and Feldmarschall Count Aeneas Sylvius von Caprara returned to Hungary to clear away the last of the Ottoman garrisons at Palota and Eger. However, Charles of Lorraine chose against going northeast to restart the siege of Munkacs as Count Caprara wanted. Munkacs was a relevant fortress not only because of its strategic control of part of Upper Hungary but also because it hosted Imre Thokoly’s wife, Ilona Zrinyi. Even with Imre Thokoly in Ottoman chains, Thokoly remained an important symbol for the Hungarians, and possession of his wife and children would be important in controlling Thokoly. Despite this opportunity, Charles of Lorraine denied Caprara’s wishes to take Munkacs. Charles of Lorraine’s resources and energy had been worn thin by the long campaign in the south and Charles only had enough of each to focus on one more target in late 1687 - early 1688. For Charles of Lorraine, the target had to be the Principality of Transylvania [2]. While Belgrade guarded the Danubian highway into Hungary, Transylvania controlled the Carpathian highway. If Charles could master this second highway then Hungary would be closed to any Ottoman counterattack and any lingering Ottoman or Hungarian resistance to Austrian dominance would wither away. For this reason, Charles bore down on Transylvania with his army and threatened to overrun it. In Transylvania, the Hungarian patriot, Prince Mihaly Apafi recognized that the Ottoman cause was lost so unlike the custodian of Belgrade, Apafi did not attempt some futile defense. Instead, Prince Apafi agreed to come to terms with the Austrians. Under the condition that he and his son after him be allowed to rule Transylvania, Mihaly Apafi made peace with Emperor Leopold and permitted Charles of Lorraine’s army to enter Transylvania.

While his colleagues were given a chance to add to their own legacies, the hero of both Sabac and Belgrade, Max Emanuel returned to Germany. Exhausted by months of successive campaigning and injured by repeated brutal fighting, Max Emanuel was in incredible need of recovery and time away from the front. Naturally, Max Emanuel stopped at Vienna on his way home. Besides being in need of convalescence, Max Emanuel also wanted to experience the praise and sit in the admiration of the Imperial court. After all, Max Emanuel was a veritable hero of Christendom. The Imperial court and foreign ambassadors doted on the Elector of Bavaria during his stay in Vienna. Hermann of Baden commended the general while the Comte de la Vauguyon lionized the elector. Practically everyone celebrated Max Emanuel, but only practically everyone. A select few offered only superficial thanks to Max Emanuel and chief among them was Max Emanuel’s own father-in-law, Holy Roman Emperor Leopold. Even after Max Emanuel had conquered the heart of Hungary and the bulwark of the Balkans for him, Emperor Leopold still kept Max Emanuel at a distance. The Emperor refused to give any credence to Max Emanuel’s thoughts of having sole command of the eastern war. Nor did Leopold entertain Max Emanuel’s hopes of completely independent command from Charles of Lorraine now that the Balkan front was openly opened up by Belgrade’s fall. Leopold could not even deign to award Max Emanuel with the title of Imperial Feldmarschall, a title that many of Max Emanuel’s subordinates held, or a recommendation to the King of Spain for induction into the Order of the Golden Fleece, which Prince Eugene of Savoy had been given. Emperor Leopold thanked his son-in-law for doing his duty and would do no more. Dissatisfied with Leopold’s ingratitude, Max Emanuel retreated to Munich with Leopold’s daughter, Maria Antonia, and chose to spend the winter there rather than at the vibrant Viennese court.

The reason that the Christians were able to push on all fronts while one of their foremost heroes went home was that the Battle of Sabac had terrible consequences on the Ottoman home front. Even though the defeated Grand Vizier, Sheitain Ibrahim, would surely have been executed upon his return to Constantinople, his survival until Constantinople would at the very least have ensured the army’s survival. Instead, with his capture and with Ibrahim Pasha being holed up in Belgrade, the remnants of the Grand Vizier’s army were disorganized and completely leaderless. Without a Grand Vizier to lead the army, the lower-level commanders stepped up and became responsible for regathering the army. Among these commanders, five colonels, Kucuk Mehmed, Mulazımbai Ahmed, Kethuda-yeri Colak Huseyin, Ebu Yusufoglu Hamza, and Baltaci Kurdish Huseyin, rose to become the most important. Throughout the army, men were complaining about the poor execution of the war by Mehmed IV and his Grand Viziers, but of greater concern to them were the months of pay that they had not yet received. All of that gold had been captured by Max Emanuel either at Sabac or Belgrade. The five colonels listened to these complaints and the solution that they purposed went beyond mere desertion or even mutiny. The five colonels suggested that the army march on Constantinople and make its voice heard by dragging Sultan Mehmed IV out of his palace and replacing him and his menacing advisers with a new sultan and a new Grand Vizier who could restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire. A revolution was at hand.

As these five colonels and the army descended on Constantinople, Mehmed IV realized their violent intent and commanded that they stop and return to the front. They did not. Instead, they continued their march as far as Adrianople. All that prevented them from going further and attacking Constantinople was their decision to name one of the pashas who was in the army, Abaza Siyavush Pasha, as their main leader. Abaza Siyavush was able to calm the army down by explaining that violence was not necessary, at least not as a first recourse. The army could present a petition to the Sultan of all their grievances and if they were not heard, then and only then might they need to take stronger action. The petition asked specifically for three things, first, all the owed pay would be given to the army immediately, second, the current advisers of the Sultan would be turned over to the army, and third, Abaza Siyavush would be named as Grand Vizier. When Mehmed IV received this petition his advisers pointed out the danger the army presented and urged him to send the gold for their back wages and to ask Abaza Siyavush to become Grand Vizier. However, the advisers pleaded for their own lives and Mehmed IV’s compassion prevented him from sending these men to their deaths at the hands of the army. Mehmed IV knew that his protection of the advisers would add to the aggravation of the rebels. He hoped that his other concessions would be enough to cool their tempers, but he knew that they might not. In need of protection, Mehmed IV reached out to the commander of the sekban (peasant levies) of Anatolia, Yegen Osman Aga. Mehmed IV gave Yegen Osman a marriage to his daughter and control of the Sanjak of Karahisar-i Sahib. In return, Yegen Osman brought 4,000 soldiers to Constantinople. However, once Yegen Osman arrived in Constantinople he became aware of just how dire Mehmed IV’s position was. Support for the Sultan was at a nadir and Mehmed IV was powerless against Yegen Osman. The Anatolian chieftain put his greed above his loyalty as he demanded more money and then successively coerced appointments as sercesme (security chief) of Karahisar-i Sahib and beylerbey of Rumelia. Yegen Osman was quick to abuse those posts and extort his subjects with ridiculous taxation.

When the army received Mehmed IV’s response, Abaza Siyavush tried to tell them that this was what they wanted. However, the five colonels railed against the idea of the advisers remaining in place just so that they could send the army to its doom and defeat again. At their urging, the army broke camp and resumed its march toward Constantinople. Every step of the way, Abaza Siyavush tried to calm them down, but nothing could quiet their tempers now. Nor did Yegen Osman impede their march as he instead used his soldiers to loot his territories for all their worth. When the army finally reached the walls of Constantinople, Abaza Siyavush was able to stall its attack on the city. The soldiers agreed to give Abaza Siyavush one last opportunity to reason with the Sultan and secure their final demand. However, once Abaza Siyavush left the army, the colonels began to undermine him. They claimed that Abaza Siyavush was one of their enemies, that he was in league with the advisers, and that he would also have to be killed along with Sultan Mehmed IV. However, the army still wanted a veneer of support from the upper echelons of Ottoman leadership, so they tried to return to an old favorite, the Koprulu family. The army invited Koprulu Fazil Mustafa Pasha, to join them and advise them. Fazil Mustafa like Abaza Siyavush pointed out that there were alternatives to violence. However, Fazil Mustafa’s alternative still amounted to deposing and imprisoning Mehmed IV. Fazil Mustafa also worked very hard to restore the army’s favorable opinion of Abaza Siyavush, who was the brother-in-law of Fazil Mustafa.

With the army agreeing that the execution of the advisers and a peaceful deposing of Mehmed IV was enough, Fazil Mustafa entered Constantinople and met with the local garrison and several of the statesmen. Fazil Mustafa made it clear that if they failed to meet the demands of the army that Constantinople would be attacked and a violent overthrow of Mehmed IV was inevitable. Together, these soldiers and statesmen delivered the army’s request for Mehmed IV to abdicate. At this point, with soldiers at his door, Mehmed IV finally gave in and surrendered himself into their custody while turning over the official seals of governance. Mehmed IV was soon after imprisoned while his brother Suleiman was taken out of prison and proclaimed Suleiman II. Abaza Siyavush was allowed to keep his new title of Grand Vizier, but the old advisers of Mehmed IV were all summarily executed. Their heads along with news of Mehmed IV’s abdication were sent out to the army.

After Mehmed IV’s abdication, the army was led into Constantinople by Abaza Siyavush as if he was a glorious conqueror rather than an upstart rebel, in November 1687. While Abaza Siyavush went to the palace to convene with the new sultan, the army meet among itself. The Sipahis decided to get rid of their leader Kucuk Mehmed because he was no longer to their liking. After chopping Kucck Mehmed’s body up, the Sipahis looked to the other colonels for leadership. Meanwhile, the Janissaries named Fetvaci Huseyin as the representative of their issues. Together, the Janissaries, Sipahis, and other Ottoman soldiers spread out across Constantinople and forced their way into the manses of the rich elite. Those individuals who were smart paid the soldiers exorbitant amounts to avoid violence. Those who did not had their homes plundered and their families abused or even killed. This violence was only stopped when the new Sultan Suleiman II and his Grand Vizier Abaza Siyavush called for the army to assemble and receive culuc bahsisi, the customary gift of gold from a new Sultan to the army. For this purpose, nearly 8,000 bags of gold amounting to 1/4 of the treasury’s purses were distributed among the army in Constantinople and the border garrisons. For an empire that had built three grand armies in half a decade, this was an incredible expense that the treasury alone could not support. Suleiman II had to melt down much of the palace’s silverware, swords, and some thrones, as well as force a tax out of Constantinople's richest individuals to fulfill the culus bahsisi.

Having paid the army, Abaza Siyavush and Suleiman II expected that the army would finally quiet itself and submit obediently. However, throughout the end of 1687 and the beginning of 1688, the army continued to act as a hostile occupation force in Constantinople. In an effort to discipline the army, Abaza Siyavush captured and executed the leader of the rebellious Janissaries, Fetvaci Huseyin. Abaza Siyavush expected that this show of force would remind the army of who was in charge, but it did not. The army did not allow this execution to intimidate it and instead allowed the execution to rile its anger. The immediate retaliation of the army saw them attack the house of the loyal Janissary chief, Harputlu Ali Aga. After they slew him, the army continued to attack loyal members of the government, slaying Derferdar Huseyin Pasha a few days later. Finally, the army surrounded Abaza Siyavush’s new palace. After a day-long siege, the army broke in and shot Abaza Siyavush. In their ecstasy of violence, the army first mutilated Abaza Siyavush’s wife and the members of her harem before looting all the rich homes around them. Anyone caught in the streets became a victim of violence. Murders, rapes, and looting occurred all over Constantinople and Suleiman II had to fear for his life.

The army’s abusive behavior continued until religious leaders of the Ottoman Empire, the Ulema met and raised the Sacred Standard in the late spring of 1688. The Ulema called on the good Muslims of the Ottoman Empire to unite and suppress the army. This religious call was heeded by the army itself and their leaders agreed to end their rebellion. With the rebellion presumably finished, the new Grand Vizier, Ayasli Nisanci Ismail Pasha, demanded that the army turn over the rebellion’s leaders so that they could be punished. The army responded by erupting into rebellion once again. At this point, Suleiman II had learned that firmness and edicts could never control the army. The only way to avoid his own deposing was to placate the army and give in to the army’s wishes. As punishment for Ismail Pasha’s failed effort to suppress the army, Suleiman had him removed and exiled. In his place, the meek and non-offensive, Tekirdagli Bekri Mustafa Pasha, was made Grand Vizier. Under Bekri Mustafa the rebellion of the army finally came to an end. Although the army was finally subdued, the Ottoman Empire’s problems were far from over. By this point, the months of insurrection and chaos at the heart of the Ottoman Empire had left its governance in complete disorder. Across the empire, local governors were acting insubordinately and some were even in open revolt against the Sultan. Chief among those governors was Yegen Osman Pasha. Throughout the revolution, Yegen Osman concentrated on plundering the lands awarded to him rather than helping his benefactor, Mehmed IV, or supporting the Sublime Porte. As things settled down, Yegen Osman, refused to recognize the new Sultan while obviously hinting at his desire for more titles, income, and powers. In this manner, Yegen Osman was not different from any other rebellious upstart. However, with his command of Rumelia and Sofia as well as more than 10,000 personal soldiers, Yegen Osman was the most dangerous of all the governors. Not even on the doorstep of Constantinople was the new Ottoman government safe. All the while, the Christian army had been given time to recover its strength from the difficult Battle of Sabac and the harsh Siege of Belgrade. While the Christians had expanded, recovered, and consolidated, the Ottomans had teetered and jumped from one crisis to the next.

[1] This is another episode where Max Emanuel's official role as second-in-command plays a role in creating a more aggressive Ottoman campaign than under Charles of Lorraine. In OTL, following the Battle of Mohacs in 1687, Charles of Lorraine refrained from chasing after Belgrade due to the casualties sustained in the reason, the supply situation of the army, and his confidence that he would take it anyways. In TTL, Charles of Lorraine has those same concerns, but Max Emanuel as second in command is able to champion a different viewpoint. He is aided in this confrontation mainly by Ludwig Wilhelm of Baden whose relationship to the President of Hofkriegsrat is vital in forcing Charles of Lorraine's hand.
[2] In OTL, Mohacs and Belgrade occurred in separate years with Caprara going after Munkacs and Charles going after Transylvania in the wake of Mohacs. In TTL, Belgrade occurs directly after Sabac, which has a marked effect on the resources of the Imperial army in 1687. Simply put the Imperial army does not have the resources and time to pursue both Munkacs and Transylvania as it did in OTL. Instead, Charles chooses to focus on Transylvania and ignores Munkacs, which has limited military value at this point. The result is that Munkacs limps on for at least another year.
 
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And Max does it again! The Turk Slayer!

And i'm very dissapointed with his lack of reward For such exceptional service.

Although the Ottoman crisis cheered me up
 
Surely the next Grand Vizier will turn things around :closedtongue:

Also, gotta say, the balls on that Bavarian are something else. But I suppose it comes with being young and ambitious
 
A great victory for Manuel but sadly it seems he isn't appreciated by the person who actually matters, makes me wonder if he'll stay mad for long.

Man the Ottomans just can't catch a break huh? Losing Belgrade and essentially being kicked out of Hungary not to mention the army rampaging and essentially strong bending the civilian government, they will have at least decades of turbulence before they can recover.

I also imagine Louis XIV as well as his ministers have probably been spooked by these stunning victories against the Ottomans, they're probably rethinking their approach towards the HRE's army given it's display on the Balkans, mainly to not underestimate them.
 
And Max does it again! The Turk Slayer!

And i'm very dissapointed with his lack of reward For such exceptional service.

Although the Ottoman crisis cheered me up

Surely the next Grand Vizier will turn things around :closedtongue:

Also, gotta say, the balls on that Bavarian are something else. But I suppose it comes with being young and ambitious
Max is certainly having his moment. He’s gaining renown for himself and carving out his own image. This isn’t too different from OTL, but it’s definitely more intense. In OTL, Max Emanuel was considered the hero of Mohacs and was lauded as such but Charles of Lorraine was able to also take part in the battle and share in Max Emanuel’s glory. Here, the river holds Charles back and we see Max Emanuel get to take the sole limelight.

A great victory for Manuel but sadly it seems he isn't appreciated by the person who actually matters, makes me wonder if he'll stay mad for long.

Man the Ottomans just can't catch a break huh? Losing Belgrade and essentially being kicked out of Hungary not to mention the army rampaging and essentially strong bending the civilian government, they will have at least decades of turbulence before they can recover.

I also imagine Louis XIV as well as his ministers have probably been spooked by these stunning victories against the Ottomans, they're probably rethinking their approach towards the HRE's army given it's display on the Balkans, mainly to not underestimate them.

The French will definitely be rethinking many things. Chief among them may be their opinion on Max Emanuel.
 
Max is certainly having his moment. He’s gaining renown for himself and carving out his own image. This isn’t too different from OTL, but it’s definitely more intense. In OTL, Max Emanuel was considered the hero of Mohacs and was lauded as such but Charles of Lorraine was able to also take part in the battle and share in Max Emanuel’s glory. Here, the river holds Charles back and we see Max Emanuel get to take the sole limelight.
And very happy he did!
 
I'm not an expert on this period, so I'm very curious to see how Max Emmanuel's story keeps developing. The way he was snubbed by the Emperor seems like a big sign of things to come, will he perhaps end up working against the Emperor in some major way in the upcoming wars.
 
I'm not an expert on this period, so I'm very curious to see how Max Emmanuel's story keeps developing. The way he was snubbed by the Emperor seems like a big sign of things to come, will he perhaps end up working against the Emperor in some major way in the upcoming wars.
i certainly hope that Max and Leo can reconcile because the latter really needs the former!
 
Impressive. The campaign of '87 will surely be well remembered. Seems like the Balkans will be a powder keg. IOTL the capture of Belgrade was sort of a signal for Serbs and Bulgarians to revolt. With the Ottomans in chaos and Yegen Osman pillaging Rumelia will we be seeing the Christian population launch revolt in the coming year?
 
Impressive. The campaign of '87 will surely be well remembered. Seems like the Balkans will be a powder keg. IOTL the capture of Belgrade was sort of a signal for Serbs and Bulgarians to revolt. With the Ottomans in chaos and Yegen Osman pillaging Rumelia will we be seeing the Christian population launch revolt in the coming year?
Serbs maybe but Bulgaria had both big convert rates in their population as well as being close enough to mainland Anatolia that crushing it in the crib would be easier, Serbia meanwhile is not as loyal and is quite open to an Holy League attack
 
Serbs maybe but Bulgaria had both big convert rates in their population as well as being close enough to mainland Anatolia that crushing it in the crib would be easier, Serbia meanwhile is not as loyal and is quite open to an Holy League attack


I fully agree, it is true that there can be a Bulgarian uprising at the same time as a Serbian one but unlike the latter, its proximity to Ottoman Thrace is harmful to its very existence, let alone a success (Constantinople can / will have to intervene immediately in case of a dangerous revolt so close to the capital) but I believe that even in Greece there may be turmoil once the news of the Imperial victories reaches the citizens (I can see a revolt in the Maniot peninsula and anti-Ottoman resistance movement in Achaia supported by Venice
 
I wasn't thinking that there would be successful revolts, just that they would happen. Drawing the comparison to the Karposh revolt or the Chiprovtsi revolt of the alleged Tarnovo revolt of OTL. And like IOTL the Bulgarians may be too deep into Ottoman territory to succeed. But we'll see what happens. As always I eagerly await the next installment.
 
I wasn't thinking that there would be successful revolts, just that they would happen. Drawing the comparison to the Karposh revolt or the Chiprovtsi revolt of the alleged Tarnovo revolt of OTL. And like IOTL the Bulgarians may be too deep into Ottoman territory to succeed. But we'll see what happens. As always I eagerly await the next installment.
Ottomans may make some privileges or two for them in order to calm them down, which depending on what it is as well as Orthodox Christians have their grievances with Catholics, might make them more loyal to the Ottomans or at the very least, avoid domination from Catholic Vienna.
 
Very well researched timeline and I really like the thoughful examination of the butterflies! Well done!

To add my two cents:

The Parliament traditionally dreaded one thing: a standing army. Now the Catholic King has established a small standing army. A catholic standing army. An irish catholic standing army. An irish catholic standing army that is stationed across the Channel beyond Parliament's overview and one that is funded by the Most Catholic King.

Between the initially more successful Monmouth Rebellion and the establishment of the Irish Brigade, James is at the same time stronger and faces a potentially much tougher opposition. I think that when it comes to an Orangist Invasion he much more secure than in OTL. Firstly, the Dutch know he has a small catholic army in Flanders and his commander is a Catholic Frenchman who won't abandon James. At the same time, if Willem invades he faces the prospect of the Anglo-Spanish Axis drifting in french orbit. The so valuable buffer of Spanish Netherlands instantly evaporates. Even if he wants his crown, the Estates General might not be enthousiastic at the prospect of losing the flemish buffer.

While a dutch invasion is much less plausible, at the same time, the chances of a civil war are increased. The Parliament will be much alarmed and I doubt they would provide the funds for a foreign war. Having the "autocrat" embark upon a continental war would mean that the Crown will increase the standing army. And who knows whether after the conclusion of the war the standing army returns home and does not disband? The protestant opposition will fight tooth and nailto avoid the expansion of the royal army via a continental war and Spain simply lacks the fiscal capacity to provide that high subsidies.

Lastly what about Louis? His constantly offensive strategy was thought at purely defensive from his point of view. Recent events have shown that if the Germans are united, they can achieve triumphs. The main danger has shifted eastwards. While there is no doubt that he desires the rest of the Spanish Netherlands, I think it will make sense that the imperial threat takes precedence. Under these circumstances, England having a defensive alliance with Spain can be useful. Judging his moves til this point, it is easier for him to have some understanding with James than with the Emperor. And considering the aforementioned jacobite actions, James will need a constant stream of subsidies to deal with an obfuscating Parliament. Spain doesn't have the capacity for both high and regular subsidies.
 
I'm not an expert on this period, so I'm very curious to see how Max Emmanuel's story keeps developing. The way he was snubbed by the Emperor seems like a big sign of things to come, will he perhaps end up working against the Emperor in some major way in the upcoming wars.
i certainly hope that Max and Leo can reconcile because the latter really needs the former!
Max is a key member of the Imperial army as it stands. He provides a decent chunk of soldiers and all of these soldiers are well-maintained, which not all princes can manage. Additionally, Max has a major connection to Saxony and a lesser connection to Cologne (he's not on perfect terms with his uncle). These makes him a crucial piece of Imperial politics one way or the other. For the Emperor, Max's army and Max's relationship with Saxony are probably his two most important traits. Against France, the Emperor needs every soldier he can get and Max controls a good number of soldiers. The Emperor no doubt understands this, but his issues with Max are on a more personal level. Max continually insults the Emperor by mistreating his wife. Even though Max isn't abusive toward Maria Antonia, his constant affairs are an affront to Maria Antonia and her father. On top of that, the distance he keeps from her and her exclusion from the Bavarian government are both things that her marriage to Max was supposed to guarantee. Outside of this marital issue, Leopold just doesn't like Max's ambition. Leopold feels threatened by it and doesn't want to empower Max too much. The thing is that Leopold might need Max's soldiers, but Leopold can find plenty of serviceable and good generals within the Empire.
What's James II of England and William of Netherlands point of view of holy Roman empire destroy Ottoman Armies
William is naturally excited. William views France as the biggest threat and with every victory over the Ottomans, the Austrians gain more security in the east. William's hope is that once the Austrians secure Hungary that the Austrians will turn west to deal with the French threat.

James II is also favorable to the Austrian victories. As a Catholic and a Christian, James II celebrates the advance of Christendom back into Hungary.
Impressive. The campaign of '87 will surely be well remembered. Seems like the Balkans will be a powder keg. IOTL the capture of Belgrade was sort of a signal for Serbs and Bulgarians to revolt. With the Ottomans in chaos and Yegen Osman pillaging Rumelia will we be seeing the Christian population launch revolt in the coming year?
Serbs maybe but Bulgaria had both big convert rates in their population as well as being close enough to mainland Anatolia that crushing it in the crib would be easier, Serbia meanwhile is not as loyal and is quite open to an Holy League attack
I fully agree, it is true that there can be a Bulgarian uprising at the same time as a Serbian one but unlike the latter, its proximity to Ottoman Thrace is harmful to its very existence, let alone a success (Constantinople can / will have to intervene immediately in case of a dangerous revolt so close to the capital) but I believe that even in Greece there may be turmoil once the news of the Imperial victories reaches the citizens (I can see a revolt in the Maniot peninsula and anti-Ottoman resistance movement in Achaia supported by Venice
I wasn't thinking that there would be successful revolts, just that they would happen. Drawing the comparison to the Karposh revolt or the Chiprovtsi revolt of the alleged Tarnovo revolt of OTL. And like IOTL the Bulgarians may be too deep into Ottoman territory to succeed. But we'll see what happens. As always I eagerly await the next installment.
Ottomans may make some privileges or two for them in order to calm them down, which depending on what it is as well as Orthodox Christians have their grievances with Catholics, might make them more loyal to the Ottomans or at the very least, avoid domination from Catholic Vienna.
A major piece of the OTL revolts was that the Imperial army said that they would come and help them. The Imperial army made promises of support, not all of which were fulfilled, and this gave the Christians the courage to revolt even in Thrace. So going forward, the leadership of a Balkan campaign will be key in determining whether there are revolts or not. If the leadership is not friendly toward the potential rebels then the revolts may be avoided. In most scenarios leadership probably would be supportive, but it depends. There are definitely some potential commanders who are most conservative and some who are more aggressive. Overall, I think the current composition of the command is mainly aggressive.
Very well researched timeline and I really like the thoughful examination of the butterflies! Well done!

To add my two cents:

The Parliament traditionally dreaded one thing: a standing army. Now the Catholic King has established a small standing army. A catholic standing army. An irish catholic standing army. An irish catholic standing army that is stationed across the Channel beyond Parliament's overview and one that is funded by the Most Catholic King.

Between the initially more successful Monmouth Rebellion and the establishment of the Irish Brigade, James is at the same time stronger and faces a potentially much tougher opposition. I think that when it comes to an Orangist Invasion he much more secure than in OTL. Firstly, the Dutch know he has a small catholic army in Flanders and his commander is a Catholic Frenchman who won't abandon James. At the same time, if Willem invades he faces the prospect of the Anglo-Spanish Axis drifting in french orbit. The so valuable buffer of Spanish Netherlands instantly evaporates. Even if he wants his crown, the Estates General might not be enthousiastic at the prospect of losing the flemish buffer.

While a dutch invasion is much less plausible, at the same time, the chances of a civil war are increased. The Parliament will be much alarmed and I doubt they would provide the funds for a foreign war. Having the "autocrat" embark upon a continental war would mean that the Crown will increase the standing army. And who knows whether after the conclusion of the war the standing army returns home and does not disband? The protestant opposition will fight tooth and nailto avoid the expansion of the royal army via a continental war and Spain simply lacks the fiscal capacity to provide that high subsidies.

Lastly what about Louis? His constantly offensive strategy was thought at purely defensive from his point of view. Recent events have shown that if the Germans are united, they can achieve triumphs. The main danger has shifted eastwards. While there is no doubt that he desires the rest of the Spanish Netherlands, I think it will make sense that the imperial threat takes precedence. Under these circumstances, England having a defensive alliance with Spain can be useful. Judging his moves til this point, it is easier for him to have some understanding with James than with the Emperor. And considering the aforementioned jacobite actions, James will need a constant stream of subsidies to deal with an obfuscating Parliament. Spain doesn't have the capacity for both high and regular subsidies.
I definitely agree that James has this parallel track of both being stronger and being guaranteed more opposition. James has his loyal brigade in Flanders, James has a trusted general at his side, and James has a foreign alliance. But James's brigade is also a source of fear and anger for many Englishmen. It's a dagger constantly hanging over them and threatening their freedom. Besides that the dagger also suggests mandatory participation in a continental war. Even if there a good deal of English who are opposed to Louis XIV and his Catholic agenda, the English would prefer the freedom of mobility, it's just their inclination. Meanwhile, James's Catholic French general has denied other English officers their opportunity at rising. Feversham was non-offensive as the head of the army because he was a Huguenot and because his head trauma basically precluded him from political intrigue. And of course as an original piece of the Restoration, Feversham was well-established and naturalized. In contrast, Roncherolles is a new Catholic Frenchman who seemingly came out of no one. He stole opportunities away from English officers such as John Churchill, and he suggests a militant Catholic takeover. Finally, the foreign alliance is contentious. There is plenty to like about a Spanish partnership: better access to Spain's trade, a partner in the Americas and Europe, and ports across the Mediterranean. But the issues are also plenty, chiefly, there's a fear that Spain might be used to bring Catholicism back to England (this is not without foundation as the Spanish are supportive of a Catholic England even if they don't intend to push that agenda). A tangent of this fear is a suspicion that James might disinherit both his Protestant daughters and hand England over to his youngest, Catholic daughter, and her Catholic Spanish fiancee.

I'm not sure an Orangist invasion can be completely ruled out. If there is a popular undercurrent in England against James then they need a rallying point and preferably a leader. The English just lost the core of any Commonwealth-esque movement with the collapse of Monmouth's cause. Monmouth would have been at the heart of any such movement and without that heart, Cromwellians can't organize their movement.

Without that option, the next option is a Protestant heir for James. Legally, Mary is still heir and of course she is a Protestant. However, her husband, William does have political complications to worry about. As you point out, James has his Spanish alliance that is sealed with a betrothal to the heir of Spain and that was championed in Madrid by the mother of that heir. James's connection to Spain is not unreal. It has weight and William does need Spain to fight France. Fighting France without Spain is an almost guaranteed defeat. Although Spain may be a shadow of its greatness, Spain presents the only real possibility of a multifront war against France. Although the Dutch and Germans can challenge France from the north and northeast, the south and southeast avenues are controlled through Spain. A Pyrenean campaign can only happen through Spain and an Italian campaign just isn't realistic without Spain. Milan is a major crossroads and Savoy likely won't abandon France without the close support that Spain an offer. Without those fronts, France can focus completely on the north and east and the Dutch know very well what a focused French army is capable of. So William has to carefully weigh any attack on James against the risk of losing Spain. That will also factor in the States General's support of an invasion. Without the support of the States General, William's odds of launching an invasion of much smaller. So he'll need to overcome their fears, which have to be heightened by the Anglo-Spanish alliance. Of course, a question is, does William feel the need to depose James or does he believe that Spain can bring England into the war against France. William believes English participation is necessary to defeating France. If Spain can guarantee English participation then a lot of William's desire to depose James goes away. William would have two major motivations for deposing James, A) he doesn't trust James's government of England, B) his succession is at risk. If Spain brings England into the war against France, then A is gone. And for now, B seems to be in an okay spot.

The other Protestant heir would be Anne and George of Denmark. George is definitely more liked by the English then William. George as a personality is more approachable for the English and he also has the advantage of having lived in England for years at this point. However, there are definitely many English who are opposed to jumping Mary's place in the succession. Justifying deposing a monarch in favor of his legal heir is significantly easier. Likely any rebellion that rallies around Anne and George would take more of a regency-look to it. Like William tried to claim during the Glorious Revolution, this would be more of a situation where James keeps the titular crown but trusteeship of the government is seized by Anne and George under the guidance of parliament. Anne by herself will not be the one to volunteer herself for such a plot. Anne will not act without George, so the main question becomes can George be the rallying figure for a coup / civil war? Would George even be willing to do so? Historically, he was content to be on the sidelines and only intervene in rare cases. George was a pivotal member of the OTL Orangist conspiracy. George chose to do so against the wishes of his older brother, the King of Denmark, but did so because he considered James to be a threat to the Protestant faith. So it's possible that George might be so aggrieved by James's rule that he is pushed toward being the champion of a revolt. But he's definitely the second option to William.

I think with Luxembourg in hand, Louis feels less compulsion to conquer the Spanish Netherlands. Or at least less rush. For now, the Spanish Netherlands can serve as a buffer, while Luxembourg acts as a French citadel in the north. The German border is a little less secure. Realistically, Louis only needs a few more pieces of Germany to make a strong border. The main issue is getting what he has captured so far permanently recognized as French. But you are right, Louis may see an avenue through England to avoid conflict with Spain. Louis definitely doesn't want to fight both England and Spain. He'd willingly fight Spain, but he doesn't need the added complication of England. However, his first target does seem to be the Emperor and his primary enemy would probably be William. Spain was chastised recently enough that Louis is willing to ignore it, if Spain is willing to stand on the sidelines. But relations with Spain are horrendous, so Louis would have to work through England to get to Spain. However, in doing so he may put James's crown at risk. Franco-English relations will not go over well in England or at The Hague. French diplomacy might scare William into invading England to stop France from stealing England and Spain. William would have to gamble on Spain letting him get away with it. Or maybe William would have to seriously set up a regency where he is the regent and James remains as titular king. There's a lot of complications for William and James.
 
Max is a key member of the Imperial army as it stands. He provides a decent chunk of soldiers and all of these soldiers are well-maintained, which not all princes can manage. Additionally, Max has a major connection to Saxony and a lesser connection to Cologne (he's not on perfect terms with his uncle). These makes him a crucial piece of Imperial politics one way or the other. For the Emperor, Max's army and Max's relationship with Saxony are probably his two most important traits. Against France, the Emperor needs every soldier he can get and Max controls a good number of soldiers. The Emperor no doubt understands this, but his issues with Max are on a more personal level. Max continually insults the Emperor by mistreating his wife. Even though Max isn't abusive toward Maria Antonia, his constant affairs are an affront to Maria Antonia and her father. On top of that, the distance he keeps from her and her exclusion from the Bavarian government are both things that her marriage to Max was supposed to guarantee. Outside of this marital issue, Leopold just doesn't like Max's ambition. Leopold feels threatened by it and doesn't want to empower Max too much. The thing is that Leopold might need Max's soldiers, but Leopold can find plenty of serviceable and good generals within the Empire.

William is naturally excited. William views France as the biggest threat and with every victory over the Ottomans, the Austrians gain more security in the east. William's hope is that once the Austrians secure Hungary that the Austrians will turn west to deal with the French threat.

James II is also favorable to the Austrian victories. As a Catholic and a Christian, James II celebrates the advance of Christendom back into Hungary.





A major piece of the OTL revolts was that the Imperial army said that they would come and help them. The Imperial army made promises of support, not all of which were fulfilled, and this gave the Christians the courage to revolt even in Thrace. So going forward, the leadership of a Balkan campaign will be key in determining whether there are revolts or not. If the leadership is not friendly toward the potential rebels then the revolts may be avoided. In most scenarios leadership probably would be supportive, but it depends. There are definitely some potential commanders who are most conservative and some who are more aggressive. Overall, I think the current composition of the command is mainly aggressive.

I definitely agree that James has this parallel track of both being stronger and being guaranteed more opposition. James has his loyal brigade in Flanders, James has a trusted general at his side, and James has a foreign alliance. But James's brigade is also a source of fear and anger for many Englishmen. It's a dagger constantly hanging over them and threatening their freedom. Besides that the dagger also suggests mandatory participation in a continental war. Even if there a good deal of English who are opposed to Louis XIV and his Catholic agenda, the English would prefer the freedom of mobility, it's just their inclination. Meanwhile, James's Catholic French general has denied other English officers their opportunity at rising. Feversham was non-offensive as the head of the army because he was a Huguenot and because his head trauma basically precluded him from political intrigue. And of course as an original piece of the Restoration, Feversham was well-established and naturalized. In contrast, Roncherolles is a new Catholic Frenchman who seemingly came out of no one. He stole opportunities away from English officers such as John Churchill, and he suggests a militant Catholic takeover. Finally, the foreign alliance is contentious. There is plenty to like about a Spanish partnership: better access to Spain's trade, a partner in the Americas and Europe, and ports across the Mediterranean. But the issues are also plenty, chiefly, there's a fear that Spain might be used to bring Catholicism back to England (this is not without foundation as the Spanish are supportive of a Catholic England even if they don't intend to push that agenda). A tangent of this fear is a suspicion that James might disinherit both his Protestant daughters and hand England over to his youngest, Catholic daughter, and her Catholic Spanish fiancee.

I'm not sure an Orangist invasion can be completely ruled out. If there is a popular undercurrent in England against James then they need a rallying point and preferably a leader. The English just lost the core of any Commonwealth-esque movement with the collapse of Monmouth's cause. Monmouth would have been at the heart of any such movement and without that heart, Cromwellians can't organize their movement.

Without that option, the next option is a Protestant heir for James. Legally, Mary is still heir and of course she is a Protestant. However, her husband, William does have political complications to worry about. As you point out, James has his Spanish alliance that is sealed with a betrothal to the heir of Spain and that was championed in Madrid by the mother of that heir. James's connection to Spain is not unreal. It has weight and William does need Spain to fight France. Fighting France without Spain is an almost guaranteed defeat. Although Spain may be a shadow of its greatness, Spain presents the only real possibility of a multifront war against France. Although the Dutch and Germans can challenge France from the north and northeast, the south and southeast avenues are controlled through Spain. A Pyrenean campaign can only happen through Spain and an Italian campaign just isn't realistic without Spain. Milan is a major crossroads and Savoy likely won't abandon France without the close support that Spain an offer. Without those fronts, France can focus completely on the north and east and the Dutch know very well what a focused French army is capable of. So William has to carefully weigh any attack on James against the risk of losing Spain. That will also factor in the States General's support of an invasion. Without the support of the States General, William's odds of launching an invasion of much smaller. So he'll need to overcome their fears, which have to be heightened by the Anglo-Spanish alliance. Of course, a question is, does William feel the need to depose James or does he believe that Spain can bring England into the war against France. William believes English participation is necessary to defeating France. If Spain can guarantee English participation then a lot of William's desire to depose James goes away. William would have two major motivations for deposing James, A) he doesn't trust James's government of England, B) his succession is at risk. If Spain brings England into the war against France, then A is gone. And for now, B seems to be in an okay spot.

The other Protestant heir would be Anne and George of Denmark. George is definitely more liked by the English then William. George as a personality is more approachable for the English and he also has the advantage of having lived in England for years at this point. However, there are definitely many English who are opposed to jumping Mary's place in the succession. Justifying deposing a monarch in favor of his legal heir is significantly easier. Likely any rebellion that rallies around Anne and George would take more of a regency-look to it. Like William tried to claim during the Glorious Revolution, this would be more of a situation where James keeps the titular crown but trusteeship of the government is seized by Anne and George under the guidance of parliament. Anne by herself will not be the one to volunteer herself for such a plot. Anne will not act without George, so the main question becomes can George be the rallying figure for a coup / civil war? Would George even be willing to do so? Historically, he was content to be on the sidelines and only intervene in rare cases. George was a pivotal member of the OTL Orangist conspiracy. George chose to do so against the wishes of his older brother, the King of Denmark, but did so because he considered James to be a threat to the Protestant faith. So it's possible that George might be so aggrieved by James's rule that he is pushed toward being the champion of a revolt. But he's definitely the second option to William.

I think with Luxembourg in hand, Louis feels less compulsion to conquer the Spanish Netherlands. Or at least less rush. For now, the Spanish Netherlands can serve as a buffer, while Luxembourg acts as a French citadel in the north. The German border is a little less secure. Realistically, Louis only needs a few more pieces of Germany to make a strong border. The main issue is getting what he has captured so far permanently recognized as French. But you are right, Louis may see an avenue through England to avoid conflict with Spain. Louis definitely doesn't want to fight both England and Spain. He'd willingly fight Spain, but he doesn't need the added complication of England. However, his first target does seem to be the Emperor and his primary enemy would probably be William. Spain was chastised recently enough that Louis is willing to ignore it, if Spain is willing to stand on the sidelines. But relations with Spain are horrendous, so Louis would have to work through England to get to Spain. However, in doing so he may put James's crown at risk. Franco-English relations will not go over well in England or at The Hague. French diplomacy might scare William into invading England to stop France from stealing England and Spain. William would have to gamble on Spain letting him get away with it. Or maybe William would have to seriously set up a regency where he is the regent and James remains as titular king. There's a lot of complications for William and James.
Love the tangled diplomacy here, it's all on edge and the floor feels like it's made out of eggshells as just one seemingly normal and rational move like a French diplomatic mission towards England would be enough to cause severe responses that could ignite at least a minor war or at worst, start a massive all out war in Western Europe
 
1.22: Return to the Holy Spirit
XXII: Return to the Holy Spirit
AmeriqueSeptentrionale-sanson-1662.jpg

Sanson's 1664 map of North America,
representing the European understanding of the continent before Rene Robert's 1682 expedition

At the beginning of 1688, the verdict on Rene Robert Cavelier was returned from Spain. If Rene Robert swore allegiance to King Carlos II and joined the next expedition to find the Rio del Espiritu Santo then he would be granted a royal pardon and permitted to live in the Spanish empire. This arrangement would have been no better than Monclova’s previous offer, which Rene Robert had rejected. But if Rene Robert’s help resulted in the re-discovery and Spanish settlement of Espiritu Santo then the rewards could be boundless. Firstly, Rene Robert was guaranteed a lifetime annuity and land in the new colony to compensate him for his lost properties in New France. Although no colonial government post was offered, Rene Robert was not barred from the possibility. But the greatest boon above all others was an allusion to a career for Rene Robert as a Spanish explorer. Fundamentally, Rene Robert was an adventurer. Private and retired life in Mexico City was even more horrible than imprisonment for Rene Robert. Meanwhile, the excitement of a new colony could only last so long before Rene Robert would feel as if he was withering away. Rene Robert needed to search, find, and uncover a new world. He was a pioneer and that is the only life he knew to live. Of course, any further employment of Rene Robert would come at the discretion of the Viceroy of Nuevo Espana and could be blocked at any point by the Consejo de Indias, but Spain was giving him a chance to pursue his dreams and that was enough. Monclova who was serving out his last year as viceroy of Nuevo Espana sealed Rene Robert’s commitment to Spain with two promises. First, Rene Robert would not be expected to fight his home country, France, while in Spanish service. If it should come to that then Monclova would allow Rene Robert to stand back so long as he did nothing to aid the French. Second, Monclova gave Rene Robert his word that if Rene Robert again found the Rio del Espiritu Santo that he would have a place amongst Nuevo Espana’s explorers for the remaining duration of Monclova’s term as viceroy.

default.jpg

Franquelin's 1684 map of Rene Robert's La Louisane,
representing the French understanding of North America following Rene Robert's 1682 expedition

With Rene Robert in Spain’s employ, the Norman finally opened up and spoke honestly about his expedition. In a twist of fate, this conversation took place over a copy of Rene Robert’s map of the Rio del Espiritu Santo. Even though Rene Robert had destroyed his map before his colony’s downfall, the original and several copies existed in France. As part of Rene Robert’s efforts to gain approval for his expedition, he had worked with cartographer Jean Baptiste Louis Franquelin to produce a depiction of La Lousiane and the great river as he understood it. A copy of this map was secured by the Spanish ambassador to London, Ronquillo, despite French safeguards, and then a copy of that copy was forwarded to Monclova in the Americas. In a meeting with Martin de Echagarai and Juan Enriquez Barroto, Rene Robert went over the map and his beliefs about the Rio del Espiritu Santo (or Colbert Riviere as he had called it). Based upon his measurements during the 1682 expedition down the great river, Rene Robert estimated the mouth of Rio del Espiritu Santo to be around the 27th northern parallel. This estimation went against the previous depictions of the mouth being at the 30th parallel. The only river on the previous maps at the 27th was the Rio Escondido on the northwestern bend of the Gulf of Mexico. The first question that Echagarai and Barroto had was “What about the bay?” Rene Robert held that the Bay of Espiritu Santo did exist around the 30th parallel as previous maps suggested. Rene Robert just disagreed that the mouth lay there rather than the Rio Escondido. According to Rene Robert’s measurements, the bay was too far north. Furthermore, when Rene Robert communicated with the natives around the river, they all pointed to the southeast when asked where they got their salt. If the river emptied into the Bay of Espiritu Santo then the natives would have pointed directly south. Putting all of this together, Rene Robert had hypothesized that the great river traveled from Illinois before turning southwest and finally southeast again where it took the place of the Rio Escondido [1].

748px-Mount_%26_Page_Chart_of_the_Bay_of_Mexico_1700_UTA.jpg

A 1700 Spanish map of the Gulf of Mexico based upon Barotto's original map,
representing the Spanish understanding of the Gulf following Barotto's 1685 expedition

Echagarai was the first to point out the error of Rene Robert’s ways. The Rio Escondido, which he thought to be the end of the Rio del Espiritu Santo, was closer to the 28th parallel than the 27th. The bay around the 27th parallel was instead Laguna Madre. Both of these sites had been investigated for Rene Colony’s colony by Echagarai and Barroto and in neither place did Echagarai and Barroto find evidence of the Rio del Espiritu Santo. The French colony itself was somewhere between the 28th and 29th parallel. Again, Echagarai and Barroto had been given little reason to believe that the river was located there. Nor should Rene Robert considering that he had not found the river after months of living in the region. Overall, Echagarai and Barroto held on to their belief that the Rio del Espiritu Santo had to be near the Bay of Espiritu Santo. In their earlier expeditions, Echagarai and Barroto had found a few bays that they thought could be the Bay of Espiritu Santo but their failure to find the river put each of these candidates into question. With Rene Robert’s revelation that the river turned southeast, Barroto suddenly realized where the river must lie. During Barroto’s expedition with Antonio Romero, they found the “Rio de la Palizada” on a large piece of land jutting into the sea in a southeasterly direction. They had not investigated it further because they had disregarded its potential as the Rio del Espiritu Santo. When Echagarai and Barroto returned to the area they once again ignored it in favor of exploring the bay to the north for a river mouth. However, if the river traveled southeast before emptying out into the Gulf then Palizada became the perfect candidate for Espiritu Santo. To its north there was in fact a bay, clearly the Bay of Espiritu Santo. However, the river’s mouth did not lie on that bay as previously thought. Instead, it shoot past it to the southwest before turning southeast, just as Rene Robert had experienced. Even though this river was around the 29th parallel rather than the 27th parallel, it still aligned with Rene Robert’s suggestion that the mouth was further south than the rest of the north Gulf coast, which lay at the 30th parallel. To confirm this hypothesis Barroto suddenly pulled out his map of the Gulf coast. Echagarai tried to cover it to avoid Rene Robert from seeing what was Spain’s newest state secret, but Barroto brushed Echagarai off and freely shared the knowledge with the Norman. Whatever Rene Robert’s past, he was one of Spain’s explorers now and Barroto felt no obligation to withhold any knowledge from him [2]. After hours of further consultations, Echagarai and Rene Robert were both convinced of Barroto’s hypothesis.

When Monclova was confronted by the three energetic explorers about an expedition to “Rio de la Palizada” he was easily won over. The policy from Spain was still in favor of finding and settling the Rio del Espiritu Santo and Monclova remained determined to fulfill this objective. Ironically, Monclova was so inspired by Barroto’s confidence that he delayed the exploration until a convoy of soldiers, settlers, and supplies could be prepared. By mid-April 1688, the expedition was fully prepared and outfitted. This time Echagarai and Barroto did not stop to investigate every single inlet and bay. Instead, using Barroto’s map they headed straight for the “Rio de la Palizada”. Once they reached it, smaller boats were dispatched to inspect the “la Palizada” closely. Quickly, they realized that the “sunken logs” that Juan Jordan de Reina had spotted were instead mudflats. They were in the midst of a great delta. Pushing past the mud, they finally found the great river that Rene Robert, Barroto, and Echagarai had all spent the last four years searching for. The Spaniards and the Norman spent the next few weeks traveling up the river to find the best spot for a settlement. Rene Robert spotted a high crescent of land on one bend of the river that he felt was perfect for a settlement [3]. Echagarai, however, felt the land was too narrow and instead found a suitable site to the north past several more turns. This site was marked by a red pole that they came to understand marked the boundary between the hunting grounds of two tribes, Houma and Bayagoula [4]. Ultimately, Echagarai as the commander of the expedition decided to make his settlement at this red pole, he named it Santiago de Luisiana. The first part of the name honored the patron saint of Spain while the second part both honored Spain’s heir Luis Carlos and mocked the thwarted French colony of La Louisiane. A second fort was put downriver closer to Rene Robert’s spot to defend any foreign attack against Santiago. Eventually, after Echagarai was satisfied with the colony’s set-up, the explorers returned to Veracruz to report their success to a happy Monclova. To celebrate the man who brought him this success, Monclova submitted a recommendation for Echagarai to be named the governor of the new colony. In the meantime, Monclova used his authority as viceroy to grant Rene Robert the crescent that he had found.

The settlement of Santiago de Luisiana was one of two great success stories for Monclova’s last year as viceroy of Nuevo Espana. While Santiago was a story of exploration and discovery, the other story was of conquest and restoration. When Monclova first arrived in the Americas he did so with a sizable contingent of Spanish soldiers and officers. The explicit purpose of these soldiers was to stomp out the dangerous French thorn. However, when Monclova the soldiers reached Veracruz they learned that someone else (Echagarai) had already accomplished their purpose. Since the French threat was already eliminated, Monclova had a resource that few recent viceroys could afford, hundreds of spare soldiers. At first, these soldiers were put to use in defending and pushing back the Apache. Even though this expedition was led by solid soldiers in the form of Don Diego de Vargas and Captain Francisco Ramirez, it failed to break the Apache threat. At best, the campaign won temporary respite, and at worst it created a “formidable union” of Apache tribes. By the end of 1687, Monclova understood that any additional focus on the Apache would have a wasted effort, which brought back the question of how he should use his reinforcement. That answer arrived in the spring of 1688 when an inquiry cleared Domingo Jironza Petriz de Cruzate, the former governor of Santa Fe de Nuevo Mexico, of any misconduct. Meanwhile, Cruzate’s temporary replacement Pedro Reneros de Posada was deemed to be inefficient, ineffective, and unworthy. The natural conclusion for Monclova was to restore the seasoned veteran of American warfare, Jironza, to the governorship, but more than that, to empower Jironza to make his governorship more than the titular sinecure it currently was. For close to a decade, Nuevo Mexico had been in the hands of the Pueblos while its governors launched occasional raids from El Paso del Norte. In 1688, Monclova sought to an end to that reality and restore Nuevo Mexico to its full extent by putting the Spanish reinforcements under Jironza’s command.

With more than 250 Spanish soldiers, 60 cavalrymen, and a further 200 Native allies, Jironza re-entered Nuevo Mexico. Guided by Pueblos whose tribes had been worst impacted by the increased Apache attacks in the absence of the Spanish, Jironza’s army was able to smoothly transcend the Rio Grande from El Paso to Isleta. The Spanish were able to avoid ambushes mainly because everywhere Jironza went the Pubelos fled. From his scouts, he learned that many of the Pueblos were running to Zia, up the Rio Jemez. Jironza chose to follow them. If the Pueblos made a stand at Zia then Jironza was certain that he could win a decisive victory and re-instill a sense of fear and respect for Spain in the Pueblos. The Pueblos did not disappoint as they failed to concede Zia and instead, Jironza found more than 3,000 Pueblos holed up within the Pueblo town. In no mood for mercy, Jironza did not stop to negotiate with Zia. Instead, he attacked the town directly and immediately. Using ropes and ladders, the Spanish scaled the walls and blasted the defenders off of them. For nearly a day, the defenders of Zia contested the Spanish aggressors. The bravery of the Zia tribesmen saw nearly forty Spaniards wounded and half a dozen killed. However, the better arms and training of the Spanish resulted in close to 800 Pueblo deaths. This number went beyond just the Pueblo warriors. Jironza was ruthless in his punishment of the Pueblos who he saw as Godless rebels. In fact, during the defense of Zia, he willingly ignited parts of the town burning men, women, and children alive. The priests who accompanied the Spanish army saved some of these Pueblos, but all too many perished. That night hundreds of Pueblos abandoned Zia for the mountains to escape Jironza’s delivery of “God’s wrath”. More than a hundred were shot as they fled. Another two hundred were made captives of Jironza’s army.

With Zia’s resistance broken, Jironza elected not to pursue the Pueblos into the mountains. They would fall back under Spanish control in due time. The more immediate objective was the recovery of Nuevo Mexico’s capital, Santa Fe. When Jironza arrived at the lost capital, he found it still occupied by the Pueblos and in great numbers. Enthralled by his own success at Zia, Jironza once again did not think negotiation was necessary. However, he knew better than rush into assaulting Santa Fe. The settlement had been built by the Spanish to defend against such unsophisticated attacks. Fortunately, Monclova’s soldiers brought with them a set of cannons, both small and big, for Jironza to break down the walls of Santa Fe. From the safety of their camp, well out of distance from the Pueblo archers, the Spanish began to pummel the gate and walls around it with cannonfire. After a few days of work, the gate was gone and the walls beside it were damaged. On the next morning before the sun rose, Jironza made his attack. To start, he renewed the bombardment of Santa Fe, which drove the Pueblo defenders away from the gate area. Under the cover of both darkness and heavy fire, sappers charged forward and placed mines around the gate area. Once the fuses reached their end, explosions ripped away what was left of the gate and the surrounding defenses. Through the rumble, the Spanish soldiers marched in. Despite the greater numbers available to the Pueblos, they ran before their Spanish foe and retreated into the main compound. Jironza snarled at the Pueblo cowardice and ordered his cannons brought up. At point-blank range, the Spanish artillery knocked on the compound’s door while the Spanish musket men cleared the parapets. By the next morning, the cannons and another attack by the sappers reduced the compound’s wall to nothing. Jironza’s soldiers marched in and brought along the small cannons with them. The Pueblos did not stop them at the breach but once the Spanish came into the compound, the Pueblos emerged from the rooftops and the windows with their bows and shoot out their arrows. The Spanish responded with fire and brimstone. After just an hour of fighting, the Pueblos realized the inevitability of their defeat and sought to save themselves from death. Dropping their bows and throwing themselves to their knees while signing the cross over their chest, the Pueblos surrendered. Santa Fe was once more in Spanish hands.

Jironza showed no mercy to the Pueblo leaders. These were the men who had driven out the last Spanish governor to set foot in Santa Fe. He would not risk them doing the same to him. All the leaders and their lieutenants were dragged into Santa Fe’s plaza along with anyone who tried to impede this process, then they were summarily shot. The warriors, women, and children were all reintroduced to Christianity by Jironza’s priests. However, Christianity would not save them from being redistributed among Jironza’s army as servants and concubines. From the survivors, Jironza learned that the original leader of the Pueblo revolt, Popay had since died. So too had his closest subordinates, Alonzo Catiti of the Kewa and El Saca of the Teotho. Another leader, Antonio Bolsas of San Lazaro was among those who Jironza had executed. In the weeks that followed, Jironza focused his military efforts on rebuilding and refortifying Santa Fe, so that it might never be lost again. Traveling to the north, Jironza found that the Pueblos of Santa Ana, Jemez, Sandia, San Felipe, Santo Domino, Cochiti, San Ildefonso, Pojoaque, San Juan, Picuris, and Taos were all quite willing to resubmit to the authority of Spain and will of the Christian God rather than challenge Jironza’s army. At Pircuris, Luis Tupatu, one of the revolt leaders but also a man with Spanish blood, offered his services in keeping the peace so long as Jironza gave his people clemency. In a rare show of generosity, Jironza granted Tupatu’s request. Together, they then traveled to Pecos to negotiate its surrender. The inhabitants of Pecos, however, abandoned their settlement and ran. Jironza waited for a few days for them to return before going back to Santa Fe. Although the core of Nuevo Mexico had returned to Spanish control it was clear that there was still work to be done before the whole of the province was restored. Critically, in the west, the Zuni were preparing for war. With the approach of winter, Jironza chose to wait on fighting that war [5].

Jironza was not the only European to oversee a major attack upon the natives of the American continent. On the other side of North America, the governor of New France, Jacques-Rene de Brisay de Denonville, refused to believe that the Iroquois would hold true to the treaty of peace and amity that his predecessor, Joseph-Antoine Le Febvre de La Barre, had designed. Despite the governor of New York, Dongan, promising to keep the Native Americans on his side of the Saint Lawrence from attacking the Native Americans under French protection, Denonville expected that the Iroquois would attack the French and their allies. For these reasons, Denonville began to plan an expedition against the Iroquois as early as 1686. Denonville’s pessimistic reports of relations with the Iroquois resulted in Minister of Marine Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Marquis de Seignelay, both condoning the expedition against the Iroquois and instructing Denonville to capture as many natives as possible. Accordingly to Seignelay, war was on the horizon in Europe and the navy was in need of galley slaves. Despite Seignelay’s request, Denonville ended up delaying his 1687 expedition when Dongan informed him that Percy Kirke and some Tangiers veterans would be coming to the Americas. Denonville worried that these reinforcements were destined for New York and might come to the defense of the Iroquois. Since Denonville wanted to avoid the complications of English involvement he postponed his campaign until he could discern Kirke’s intentions. Over the rest of 1687, it became clear that Dongan had bluffed Denonville. Kirke’s reinforcement amounted to just one more company of English soldiers and all of these men remained in New England. Although some ventured toward New England’s northern boundary, closer to New France, none entered New York. Thus, despite Kirke’s presence in the Americas, the situation in New York remained unchanged and so too remained the Iroquois situation.

In the summer of 1688, Denonville took advantage of Kirke’s preoccupation with New England and launched an attack on the westernmost Iroquois nation, the Senecas. With 832 troupes de la marine, more than 900 militiamen, and close to 400 Native allies, Denonville and the Chevalier de Troyes marched out of Montreal. Ahead of them, the Intendant de Cahmpigny at Fort Frontenac captured numerous members of the Goyogouins and Oneiouts to avoid knowledge of the expedition’s coming from reaching the Iroquois. Along with them, tens of Neutral Iroquois were captured. All of them were sent back to Montreal in preparation for fulfilling Seignelay’s request. As the invasion force marched in the Seneca lands, the youths of the Seneca assembled an army of close to 800 men, less than half of the size of their French enemies. When this Seneca army of youths attacked the large body of Frenchmen without the assistance of any experienced warriors their resolve did not last long. After a brief struggle, the Senecas were sent into flight. The Senecas lost close to a hundred men, killed and wounded whereas the French had half a dozen deaths and less than two dozen injuries. This lopsided affair demonstrated the impossibility of defeating the French. Afterward, the Seneca burned down their own villages and ran from the approaching French. However, the Seneca left their livestock and crops behind. In their culture, the destruction of food was a sin. The same could not be said of the French. The French stole what food they could carry and then destroyed any food they could not. Hogs were slaughtered and left to rot, storehouses of corn were burned, and entire fields of corn were cut down and left to dry out in the sun. Once the French had exhausted themselves destroying these fields they turned back and returned to New France. In their wake, all that was left was destruction. Immediately, the Seneca began to rebuild but already they were looking to the west with longing, the longing to avenge this great crime against their people.

[1] La Salle's mistake in going to Texas rather than Louisana in 1684 was due to a mismeasurement of latitudes. During the 17th and 18th centuries, explorers had few reliable means of measuring longitude but did have relatively good measures for latitude. As a consequence, explorers often relied on latitude to get their bearings first. This reliance latitude would make someone question why La Salle sailed so far to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi even if he did not know the longitude upon which the Mississippi stood. The reason why was that during La Salle's 1682 expedition down the Mississippi, he damaged his astrolabe, which made his latitude measurements 2 degrees off on average. As a result, La Salle thought he was much further south than he actually was throughout the 1682 expedition. This lower latitude convinced him that the Mississippi was along the Texan coast rather than the north Gulf coast because all the maps suggested that the Gulf coast was further north than La Salle's measured the mouth of Mississippi to be. Based on La Salle's latitudes, his assessment would have been valid, but the measurements were wrong which is why he was horribly misplaced during his 1684 expedition.
[2] Barroto as a personality was very liberal with information. He essentially wanted to help others explore and discover and did not care whether he got credit or not. His map of the Gulf coast was considered a Spanish state secret because it was the first accurate depiction of the coast and was kept completely hidden for more than a decade until a French ship captured a Spanish ship carrying a copy of the map. For these reasons, Barroto willing exposes the map while Echagarai tries to hide it.
[3] This high crescent is of course the crescent city, New Orleans.
[4] This red pole marks Baton Rouge.
[5] As a consequence of Spain's greater reinforcement of New Spain and the discovery and elimination of La Salle's settlement, Monclova has the manpower to order a reconquest of New Mexico during his term. In OTL, only a minor force was sent in 1688. This force still managed to inflict the great tragedy of Zia, but could not take Santa Fe. In TTL, Jironza has a legitimate army, one which is even larger than the army Vargas led in 1692. The reconquest is bloodier from the start due to Jironza's more aggressive and violent personality relative to Vargas. Whereas Vargas was slow to turn toward a regime of fear, that is Jironza's first instinct.
 
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