an interesting question would be the following: what happen if there is an armistice on the continent, but UK and USA refuse to sign it? Not much that the Germans can do against UK, much less against the USA.
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The most important thing would be that the blockade would still be in place, therefore the shortages would stay on.
However, how could that happen? Does that mean that the US and the British do not accept the armistice, yet retreat from the continent? OR do they fight on? Or do they just stay there and blockade?
Germany has to keep garrisons in Northern France at least, and Belgium; must bolster its puppet states in the Baltic (plus Ukraine); and ultimately has to demobilise before everything goes down the drain (if victory means that Germany becomes a garrison state, I don't think the kaiser can wave away the internal tensions so easily).
I think occupying France wouldn't be that hard. Just occupy some fortresses, parts of the channel coast and the coal fields around Lille. I don't think that France would revolt very fast after loosing such a desastrous war. The same would be true for Belgium. With the east, I don't think the occupied countries (with the exception of Poland) would be very hostile to the Germans. There would be some German princes ruling, autonomy like never before under the tsar, protection against the Reds...
For some years Germany wouldn't face many problems here.
The is also a strong likelihood of red insurrections (most likely aided and abetted by the Soviets, but not necessarily so) in France, Italy, Austria and Hungary, which would spill over into Germany.
These insurrections would probably be the most important problem. I don't think there would be some in victorious Germany, but there'd be many in France and the other countries which have lost - quite as OTL. And of course the Generals and the Kaiser would be eager to destroy them. That's difficult, yet on the other side it could ironically help German control over the continent. Parisienne bourgeousie wouldn't be that worried about the German army executing Communist rebels in Paris. If there really would be a danger of France becoming a bolshevik state, we'd even see French volunteers fighting alongside Germany for the new French kingdom.
A very chaotic time-line: I doubt very much that one might say: "and after the triumph in 1918, the kaiser lived a long and prosperous life, governing a rich German empire", but everything and (almost) anything might happen.
Hehe, very true. I think one could say that "and after the triumph in 1918, the German Empire ruled Europe undisputedly for 3 years, in which the yet ever victorious German Army smashed all communist uprisings, but then...".