The Soviet Union Annexes Manchuria

Tetsu · Nov 4, 2005

What might have happened if Stalin decided to create a Manchurian SSR after August Storm? How might this affect politics in East Asia, then and now?

Max Sinister · Nov 4, 2005

Depends whether he wants Mao to conquer the rest of China or not. If the latter, things get really interesting. If the former, Mao might end as the governor (what'd be the correct title?) of the Manchurian SSR... if Stalin doesn't purge him. If the former, mao will somewhen demand Manchuria back from Russia. Maybe they give it back, if the relations are good enough, maybe war ensues (when did China get nukes?)

Tetsu · Nov 4, 2005

Actually, I like the idea of Mao being made a puppet governor of the Manchurian SSR.

Anaxagoras · Nov 4, 2005

If Stalin did this, why wouldn't he also annexx North Korea?

Romulus Augustulus · Nov 4, 2005

Hmm...I think that Manchuria as a puppet People's Republic, with a nationalist south (Manchuria, or the puppet PRC, might also include Xinjiang and Tibet, although those might be different Soviet puppet states) is more plausible than a Manchurian SSR.

Ooh...I can see the Korean War boiling over in a really bad way with that situation...

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

I don't think Tibet as a Soviet Puppet state is plausible, myself...

Romulus Augustulus · Nov 4, 2005

Hmm...perhaps the Soviets and their Chinese puppets conduct an invasion? Xinjiang? Probably...this would leave the ROC with the southern part of "China proper."

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

Romulus Augustulus said:
Hmm...perhaps the Soviets and their Chinese puppets conduct an invasion? Xinjiang? Probably...this would leave the ROC with the southern part of "China proper."

Xinjiang is likely, but Tibet is most definately in the southern area... The only way to invade it would be to invade through Xinjiang, and I don't see any reason the Soviets would want it if they're not taking the far more valuable lands of Southern China (The only reason the PRC took Tibet was because they wanted to reunite "historic China")

Wendell · Nov 4, 2005

Giving Xinjiang (Dzhunguria), Mongolia, and (northern) Manchuria to the U.S.S.R. directly would be interesting, and not necessarily imposible if timed right. Might India get Tibet?

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

Wendell said:
Giving Xinjiang (Dzhunguria), Mongolia, and (northern) Manchuria to the U.S.S.R. directly would be interesting, and not necessarily imposible if timed right. Might India get Tibet?

The USSR could easily take all of Manchuria... Probably affects NK dynamics, with the DPRK being more dependent on the USSR and might end up falling at the same time the Warsaw Pact does (which would result in a better TL, assuming the Warsaw Pact still falls here)
India getting Tibet... I don't know, Tibet was often in the British Sphere of Influence, but I would say absent the PRC invasion, Tibet will be a independent, somewhat backwards, region of the world known for high mountains, monks, and the Dalai Lama. Probably in the Indian "sphere of influence" along with places like Nepal and Bhutan though...

Romulus Augustulus · Nov 4, 2005

Maybe a sort of Second Great Game plays itself out as part of the Cold War, with the Soviet Union, India, the ROC and the US competing for influence in Tibet and environs?

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

Romulus Augustulus said:
Maybe a sort of Second Great Game plays itself out as part of the Cold War, with the Soviet Union, India, the ROC and the US competing for influence in Tibet and environs?

Tibet is worthless, though.

Wendell · Nov 4, 2005

Imajin said:
The USSR could easily take all of Manchuria... Probably affects NK dynamics, with the DPRK being more dependent on the USSR and might end up falling at the same time the Warsaw Pact does (which would result in a better TL, assuming the Warsaw Pact still falls here)
India getting Tibet... I don't know, Tibet was often in the British Sphere of Influence, but I would say absent the PRC invasion, Tibet will be a independent, somewhat backwards, region of the world known for high mountains, monks, and the Dalai Lama. Probably in the Indian "sphere of influence" along with places like Nepal and Bhutan though...

I was just postulating about a possible South Asian power inclusive of Kashmir, Tibet, and OTL's Bharat, but perhaps with Princely states surviving?Nepal and Bhutan as Princely states, perhaps?

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

Wendell said:
I was just postulating about a possible South Asian power inclusive of Kashmir, Tibet, and OTL's Bharat, but perhaps with Princely states surviving?Nepal and Bhutan as Princely states, perhaps?

Hm, well that's worthy of it's own possible AH... though I would say such a state could arise, you'd have to marginalize the idea of having a Pakistan emerge. With that gotten rid of, you could have the British decide to form an "Indian Federation", that Tibet falls into orbit of (to escape the Communists)

Wendell · Nov 4, 2005

Imajin said:
Hm, well that's worthy of it's own possible AH... though I would say such a state could arise, you'd have to marginalize the idea of having a Pakistan emerge. With that gotten rid of, you could have the British decide to form an "Indian Federation", that Tibet falls into orbit of (to escape the Communists)

Why not still have a Pakistan?

Nicole · Nov 4, 2005

Wendell said:
Why not still have a Pakistan?

Because a Pakistan can really only arise if the princely states are gotten rid of, and if the princely states are gotten rid of Nepal and Bhutan won't join, and Tibet definately won't be interested in joining a pure Republic (Tibet was a theocracy under the Dalai Lama, after all)

Wendell · Nov 4, 2005

Imajin said:
Because a Pakistan can really only arise if the princely states are gotten rid of, and if the princely states are gotten rid of Nepal and Bhutan won't join, and Tibet definately won't be interested in joining a pure Republic (Tibet was a theocracy under the Dalai Lama, after all)

Hyderabad was still a princely state AFTER Pakistan left.

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy · Nov 5, 2005

I don't see why the Soviets would annex Manchuria. In OTL Mao gave them use of those ports and railways that Imperial Russia once controlled, and that was good enough. Taking Manchuria would soon alienate China as a rule, Stalin was only as greedy as he could get away with.

A more plausible scenario would be the Mongols taking Inner Mongolia. I know the Communist Chinese were concerned about this possibility in 1945, when the USSR and Mongolia invaded Japanese Manchuria.

Thande · Nov 5, 2005

I see Tibet as being a workable puppet state if and only if India ends up being more firmly aligned with the USSR than OTL.

I don't think the USSR would annex Manchuria unless it looked as though Mao was on the brink of completely losing the Chinese Civil War and this was the only way to salvage any sort of Communist gain in the region - which again strikes me as unlikely.

Romulus Augustulus · Nov 5, 2005

Imajin said:
Tibet is worthless, though.

Yes, but it's well positioned and it has uranium. And gold. You'd need much more aggresive governments than in OTL to jockey for position like that in Tibet, though...