The Ruins of an American Party System: From 1920 Onward

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Hmm in reading about LaGuardia, it looks like he was a big-time internationalists. That bodes well for any major wars that pop up between now and when he's not president anymore. :p


He also sounds ridiculously (managerially) authoritarian...
 
Hmm in reading about LaGuardia, it looks like he was a big-time internationalists. That bodes well for any major wars that pop up between now and when he's not president anymore. :p


He also sounds ridiculously (managerially) authoritarian...
Olson didn't give any opinions of international affairs as far as I can find, so he'll probably follow others advice.

La Guardia is an internationalist, and authoritarian, though not as authoritarian as Long or radical as Olson.

Parley Christensen was very anti-fascist, so he might press for intervention to stop fascism. He was a bit friendly with the Soviet Union in OTL, so he probably would not care about Communism.

George Norris in OTL was an isolationist turned internationalist by the rise of the Nazis, so he could change his views.

Huey Long hated Hitler, so if Hitler were in power, he would probably be an internationalist. Nazi Germany is not going to happen in this TL though.

The Lafollettes and the old guard of the Progressives are all staunch isolationists.

I am pretty sure all of the Socialists in this time were very anti-war. At least Norman Thomas was a pacifist, I know that...
 
Is Dorothy Day doing anything exciting in this timeline? To Day, business failed to provide the public with enough jobs at a decent wage, while the government failed to treat the public with dignity and respect that they deserved. In a 1944 editorial, she characterized the New Deal as "Cake and Circuses" for providing temporarily relief without structural reform. It would be interesting to get her views on the Progressives.

With Father James Renshaw Cox's influence, I imagine she would have an even larger platform than OTL when she kicks off the Catholic Worker movement.
 
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Is Dorothy Day doing anything exciting in this timeline? To Day, business failed to provide the public with enough jobs at a decent wage, while the government failed to treat the public with dignity and respect that they deserved. In a 1944 editorial, she characterized the New Deal as "Cake and Circuses" for providing temporarily relief without structural reform. It would be interesting to get her views on the Progressives.

With Father James Renshaw Cox's influence, I imagine she would have an even larger platform than OTL when she kicks off the Catholic Worker movement.

Currently, she's in the beginning stages of organizing the Catholic Worker movement like OTL. She voted for Olson enthusiastically, and is probably part of some Silver Shirt conspiracy theory as proof that the Progressive Party is run by Papist Jewish Communists.
 
I haven't been around that much, but I have to protest this section.
Wouldn't it be far easier to simply blackmail those businessmen involved with any plotting rather than murdering them? Its not as if Hoover's services were incapable of finding dirt on public figures, and a simply threat by him to air their dirty laundry would have been enough of a signal for these men, who may have thought of themselves as potential saviors, to back down for the moment being until things got really desperate. It also doesn't help to take down a number of the most prominent titans running the American economy, would in fact destabilize it and cause further recesses as the leadership is restructured to replace these figures. It just seems a bad plan all around when there are other options present.

As for MacArthur, I don't really see suicide being in character for him, nor do I see him being assassinated if that is what really happened. At worst he is blackmailed out of the service and replaced, though then the Progressives will want to put him on trial for the events in Washington. Certainly would provide a better story, not to mention a polarizing divide among some Americans depending on the side they take.



 
I haven't been around that much, but I have to protest this section.
Wouldn't it be far easier to simply blackmail those businessmen involved with any plotting rather than murdering them? Its not as if Hoover's services were incapable of finding dirt on public figures, and a simply threat by him to air their dirty laundry would have been enough of a signal for these men, who may have thought of themselves as potential saviors, to back down for the moment being until things got really desperate. It also doesn't help to take down a number of the most prominent titans running the American economy, would in fact destabilize it and cause further recesses as the leadership is restructured to replace these figures. It just seems a bad plan all around when there are other options present.

As for MacArthur, I don't really see suicide being in character for him, nor do I see him being assassinated if that is what really happened. At worst he is blackmailed out of the service and replaced, though then the Progressives will want to put him on trial for the events in Washington. Certainly would provide a better story, not to mention a polarizing divide among some Americans depending on the side they take.


Well, the conspiracy theory goes that the Businessmen had already began mustering thousands of the Knights of the White Camellia around Washington D.C., and that the coup was on the verge of launching when Snell struck. In the theory, attempting to blackmail them, or ordering their arrest, would be too late, because they were near enough that they could just launch the coup then and there to try to purge Snell, Hoover, and anyone who dared to publish such blackmail material. That left a pre-emptive strike as Snell's best option. Furthermore, many say that a major motivator for Snell was to prevent the knowledge of a supposed coup from going public, and a public scandal, arrest, or failed coup would lead to the information getting let out, and that he feared, not without some justification, that that would allow Olson the excuse to flat-out declare martial law and imprison all of the titans of industry regardless of their guilt.

Conspiracy theories abound about MacArthur's death. The matters were sealed as National Security, and were destroyed later.

Generally, the timeline is often considered to be vaguely this:

Hoover to Snell: You have 24 hours to save American democracy and keep it quiet
Snell to Miller: Damn, what do I do?
Miller to Snell: Whatever is necessary.
Snell to Hoover: Kill them all
 
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Floyd Olson said:
We are assembled during the most critical period in the history of the Nation. An army of unemployed; some 5 million homeless and wandering boys; millions of abandoned farms; an ever-increasing number of mortgage foreclosures; and tens of million of people in want and poverty are evidences not only of an economic depression but of the failure of government and our social system to function in the interests of the common happiness of the people. Just beyond the horizon of this scene is rampant lawlessness and possible revolution. Only remedial social legislation, national and state, can prevent its appearance.

Floyd Olson walked the entire length of the inaugural parade. His advisors recommended that he not due so, due to the risk of assassination; indeed, two men, both members of the Silver Legion, were arrested during the inauguration for plotting to assassinate the President-elect. However, Olson wanted to be with the people, and wanted to send a message that he was not an elite like the previous presidents. He gave his radical speech, to the cheers of the crowd below and the horror of Wall Street, and set about creating his administration. Most of Olson's left-wing cabinet nominations were approved by the Senate; Max Hayes as the nominee for Secretary of Labor provoked a fight, but in the end, once it became clear that Olson would not compromise, the moderate Progressives fell in line and nominated him. He even gave the Socialists and Commonwealthers a few low-level, not cabinet appointments as a show of support for the coalition (Olson declined to give any position to the opposition).

The first decision of the Olson Administration was where to draw the "Red line". While it was clear that the House majority was large enough that they would have no trouble there, the Senate majority was narrow enough that a few moderate Progressives could block the whole agenda. Some on the far left counseled that Olson declare that his mandate dictated that the entire Radical Platform be implemented immediately, and any obstruction would be met with martial law. However, Vice President La Guardia convinced Olson that abusing martial law would ultimately fail. He reasoned that there were two parts of the Radical Agenda: the immediate economic relief, and the more radical long-term improvements to American society. The Vice President convinced Olson that martial law should not be used to implement the radical long-term agenda, and that it should only be used to ram through immediate economic relief.

Most of the immediate economic relief was not that controversial. The Republicans agreed that a massive public works project was necessary; they thought that the 20 billion dollar budget of the American Employment Agency was too high. Most of the most vicious opposition came due to Olson's refusal to allow any government jobs project to segregate its workers, but possessing a large enough majority to ignore the South, Olson did so, much to the displeasure of the Southern Progressives. The GOP wanted a dramatically more limited Agricultural Relief Act, but decided not to block the Progressives' plan to bail out farmers, and buy the surplus crops (which were distributed to the poor, stored, or burned). The Republicans had already given up on the Gold Standard, and let Olson's treasury department move the United States to a fiat currency. They allowed a massive reduction to tariffs The Republicans had in fact adopted a matching plan to the Progressives: they figured that obstructing everything would just provoke martial law, so they decided to give the Progressives the issues which would result in the greatest public support for martial law, and fight them on the more radical, less popular issues.

There was one issue in the immediate economic recovery that the Republicans and Moderate Progressives refused to compromise on: the financial recovery. Olson called for the nationalization of the entire financial system by the United States government, a move that barely gained a majority of the Progressive Senators in support. The President was infuriated, and threatened to declare martial law. Huey Long shouted at his fellow Senators that "a mob is coming here in six months to hang you damned scoundrels, and I'm undecided whether to stick here with you or go out and lead them". Afraid either of Olson or the people, Congress did pass a series of wide-ranging banking regulations. This satisfied the President enough to not nationalize the financial system yet (he was confident that after the midterms, he would be able to get a Radical majority in the Senate and get it through with the rest of the Radical agenda)

Many Republicans hoped that cooperation could allow them to influence Olson; they suggested that they would back his tax increases if he also cut government spending by slashing the pay of government workers and pensions. However, Olson refused to do so. He publicly declared that he did not care about deficits or the rising national debt, and he in fact endorse Keynesian levels of spending, meeting with the famous British economist. He rammed through even higher tax increases on the rich, over Republican opposition. The Republicans were infuriated by these actions. They had not filibustered the immediate economic relief, they had compromised on banking regulations and taxes and public works programs, they had allowed Olson to appoint avowed Socialists to his cabinet, and they were met with a purely partisan, non-compromising response. The Republicans met, and decided that they had compromised enough. The American people would see the Republicans efforts, and they would see Olson's stubborn radicalism. From May 9th, the Republican Party decided to go scorched-earth and obstruct the entire Radical agenda to the best of their ability.
 
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Oh boy. The GOP is playing this pretty well actually, Olson's rammed down his First New Deal* and social unrest is probably ebbing as a result, now they can try to obstruct him from here on out. Granted, this can seriously backfire in a year and a half electorally, but I guess they are too afraid of "creeping socialism".

I'd be curious as to Olson's cabinet and brain trust aside from Hayes/Keynes/La Guardia, which under FDR's OTL term was immensely important.
 
Question: From an economics perspective, why's Olson actually raising taxes on the rich now?

Given that it's in the middle of the Great Depression, I expect interest rates on governmental bonds to be extremely low (IOTL, an issue of $500 million in 3.25% bonds was oversubscribed 6 times around this time), so given that the point is to get aggregate demand back up, there's no real reason in the short term (as Keynes would doubtlessly point out) to spend political capital on raising taxes on the super-rich. The government doesn't need more revenue now, and raising taxes on the super-rich would hurt aggregate demand by a nonzero amount, even if the relevant fiscal multiplier is tiny. It makes sense in the long-term, of course, but not in the middle of the depression.

It may make more sense (if Olsen and Keynes are canny enough) to use the proposed tax increases as a negotiating card, and agree to drop them in the current Congress in exchange for more public works programs or etc., which would actually help the problem of ending the depression. Then return to the question in two years when the economy's hopefully recovering and higher taxation on the rich makes more economic sense.
 
(I have to say it's pretty hilarious to see Long constantly threaten Congress with lynch mobs.)

Hehe. That's an allohistorical quote from OTL of course.

Huey Long: Like Ted Stevens of the modern era, prone to making threats when he doesn't get his way. Except befitting of the different times, while Ted Stevens constantly threatened to resign, Long instead threatens Congress with lynch mobs. Much more effective, wouldn't you say?
 
Class warfare "Those who have taken, now they must give!" etc.

Fair enough, and I can believe that of Olsen; it'd be nice though if a willingness to listen to Keynes on spending and stimulus also translated into a willingness to listen to Keynes on other issues.

But that's not the Floyd Olsen you're going for, I presume.

Just for reference, how big is the New Deal-analogue Olsen is pushing? Like compared to FDR's New Deal. And how big is the deficit?


The average federal deficit IOTL was quite small - about 3% of GDP I believe - during this period, and the national debt level barely budged.

Debt1929-50.jpg
 
Does anyone have any cabinet suggestions for Olson? I already have Hayes as Secretary of Labor, and Wallace as Secretary of Agriculture like OTL.
 
Does anyone have any cabinet suggestions for Olson? I already have Hayes as Secretary of Labor, and Wallace as Secretary of Agriculture like OTL.
Frances Perkins might be a good choice for a Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare analogue if Olson creates it. Maybe Robert Mosses can get a gig as well? He was a friend of Perkins and was fairly Progressive early in his career.
 
Frances Perkins might be a good choice for a Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare analogue if Olson creates it. Maybe Robert Mosses can get a gig as well? He was a friend of Perkins and was fairly Progressive early in his career.
Olson does intend to create a department of Health to run his planned universal healthcare system. I'll put her as Postmaster General for now, with Olson having promised her either the eventual Healthcare position once it is created or Secretary of Labor once the elderly Hayes retires, whichever comes first.

Moses will be in charge of a division of the American Employment Agency that has to do with construction projects.

Current Cabinet:

President: Floyd Olson
Vice President: Fiorello La Guardia
Secretary of State:
Secretary of the Treasury:
Secretary of War:
Secretary of the Navy:
Attorney General:
Postmaster General: Frances Perkins
Secretary of the Interior: H. F. Samuels
Secretary of Agriculture: Henry Wallace
Secretary of Commerce:
Secretary of Labor: Max Hayes
 
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