The Rhineland Accident of 1935

The Rhineland Accident of 1935

On March 7, 1935, token units of the small German army entered the demilitarized zone of the Rhineland. The Versailles Treaty provided that the area, German sovereign territory, had to remain demilitarized. As long as it remained so, the military situation along the border line between Germany and France did not favor German adventurism; with a demilitarized Rhineland, France could quickly counteract against the key German industrial region of the Ruhr. But should the Germans deploy military units and build fortifications in the Rhineland, the security France had gained through Versailles would be seriously impaired.

France was under a caretaker government, preparing for general elections. But its most important weakness was in the fact that its much-vaunted army was an unwieldy machine. Its mobilization plans took 15 days to make it ready for war.
The French wanted to react, but they quickly realized they would be alone. The Belgians, who would be even more threatened than them by such a move, were switching back to neutrality right there and then. The British were committed to help France in such a case, but they saw the move as a statement of sovereign rights the Germans were entitled to.

Even so, the French government decided to act. In the meeting of March 8, the Prime Minister Sarraut, until then a rather obscure French politician, was adamant. Reportedly, he said: "With Hitler in power it's either now or later. Better now, than later, with their guns in the Saarland". Notwithstanding the precarious situation and the opposition of some of his own ministers, he ordered a partial mobilization and the entry of just about any available first units in German territory for the following day.

The French acted very cautiously. On March 9, token forces – anyway, they couldn't muster much more – showed up at the border posts in the Saarbrücken area, and their officers informed the German border officials that later in the day, they would have to cross. At that time, the German troops were nowhere near the area; the closest ones were 60 kilometers away. At midday, shots were exchanged across a bridge, but the toll was a few wounded men on either side. Elsewhere, the German border guards stood down and let the French in.

Meanwhile, the French diplomacy was at work. The ambassador in Berlin informed the Germans that the violation of the treaty wouldn't be tolerated. The British were required to do their duty under the Locarno agreements. The Poles were informed, even though their intervention would be called for only in case of German aggressive actions against French territory proper.

Back in Berlin, Hitler was livid. He had just announced the Reichstag his move, saluted as a triumph. Now he had to face the fact he had no army to speak of to send in. At the moment, he had about 15,000 men slowly moving across the Rhineland, mostly on bicycles, with almost no artillery support. He had about two dozen of modern fighters available. He could order the general mobilization, but that would bring about the same decision by the other powers, France, Britain and Poland at least, possibly Czechoslovakia as well. For the time being, he ordered his troops to stop where they were.

On March 10, the French advanced just seven kilometers across the Saarland. They were in no hurry, and wherever possible they managed to extract guarantees or deals from local authorities or the local police. Even so, two soldiers were killed at Völklingen, presumably by franc tireurs, another firefight erupted at St. Ingbert against border guards, and the French advance party began finding improvised obstructions on the road to Kaiserslautern. No organized resistance was taking place, however.
The French mobilization had begun, but it would take time to get into full swing, even on a partial basis.Nevertheless, the French had managed to push the first tank company across the streets of Saarbrücken, and had photographers ready to document that exploit.
The British government met on that day, but came to no decision as to the French request for support.

On the morning of March 11, the French vanguards were ordered to stop. They were in Homburg, still within 20 kilometers from the border. The French government made a public plea with the Germans not to risk another European war with this violation of their international commitments. Meanwhile, the newspapers of Europe had the photos of the French tanks in front of a German Rathaus.
In the early afternoon, there was the first engagement between the opposed armed forces. Up to that moment, the French had took casualties from border guards, policemen or civilians, all acting upon their own initiative. But over Saarbrücken, a German recon airplane was shot down by a French fighter.
The British cabinet took its decision and publicly announced it would back the French. The Poles stated they were mobilizing eight divisions.

That evening, Hitler met with his ministers and generals. His nerves were playing up, and it showed. The War Minister von Blomberg and General von Fritsch basically said that they had told him so. They reminded him he had been warned that if the French had chosen to oppose the move, the German army wouldn't stand a chance to win a war. They firnly insisted their units had to be withdrawn.
Late in the night, such orders were issued.

- What happened then?
 
Hitler will have been made a fool of and will either become considerably weaker politically speaking or be overthrown. There is even a decent chance that his influence in the Nazi party will be greatly weakened.
 
Hitler will have been made a fool of and will either become considerably weaker politically speaking or be overthrown. There is even a decent chance that his influence in the Nazi party will be greatly weakened.

Of course - the Germans have been under Nazi rule for years, respecting their tough-guy posturing, but Hitler's first actual action results in the military castration of Germany. There's no way he'd survive an embarrassment like this.
 
or he would brood over his miscalculation and recognize that he must have a much stronger, much more prepared germany, and will not rush into war. he might actually not interfere as much in the army and he might actually think things through before he goes ahead and makes a move.

this could be a more frightening scenario than in OTL.
 
Well Hitler had not yet gained his cult of personality with in the military, as he had no victories under his belt. In this matter I wonder what Britain will do. For France is posturing, and from what I know of the time is acting in a manner a portion of its own government is against. I could see this go down as an "incident" and not lead to war. No one wanted war in 1935, the British and French still had the scars and memory of the First World War in their mind, and Hitler was not ready to fight yet.

You'd have one of two things occuring.

The first is Hitler backing down which makes him loose face, but I do not see him being overthrown as Germany is in an economic recovery, and people have jobs. The French get a nice little photo of them enforcing the treaty, but this could backlash against them easily. For by forcing the Germans to step down France is seen as the aggressive one. True a treaty says Germany should not do it, but in the 1930's many found the German peace terms somewhat harsh, and unfair. It is like someone shooting at you for going onto your porch. Of course the opposite is true and France is seen as maintaining the balance of Europe, but I doubt the that.

The second is another nation intervining. Perhaps Britain, the League of Nations, or even Italy asking to sit down an talk. If another nation gets involved to talk, I can see Germany coming out ahead. No matter what one says about Hitler the man was good at politics. Would a nation really think France is in the right by sending in the military to keep the Germans out of their own land? So maybe this can lead to Hitler getting an earlier victory by having global recognition of Germany being right.
 
Depends on how astute a politician you think Hitler and the rest were.
You seem to have three possibilities and strategies to my mind.

1. Hitler and the rest panic about it, deliver some poor speeches in the Reichstag and so on, come across looking very foolish and possibly get kicked out of office. This just makes this debacle look as humiliating as it was. Hitler might have been insane, but he hadn't got where he had by being stupid. Its likely he would swallow his pride and react.

So there are two other strategies. They both involve acquiessing to the situation and withdrawing all forces from the Rhineland.

2. While acquiessing to the French, press upon the British the unfairness of the whole thing and try to seperate Britain and France. Britain may not be too keen on Germany occupying the Rhineland but images of French tanks in the area, reports of people dead and chaos are likely to be equally concerning. Press the arguement that the last time France entered the Rhineland (okay it was the Ruhr but nevermind) Germany's economy went through the floor and such could open the door to communism. With not little fortune the British will fall for this hook line and sinker. They shall call off the French and establishing better relations with the Hitler government. Whether or not Britain can call of the French is debatable if they are in full swing but if the British oppose the move then France shall be alot less confident.

The British are still willing to believe that France has the aim to be the European hegemon and that her defensive fears are groundless.

Option 3. That of basically blaming France, Britain and the League of nations (possibly if embarking on strategy 2 above focusing on France). If Hitler can portray the incident as less a personal humiliation and more a massive over-reaction on the part of the french, people may well rally to him and the government since there are no other options. The impositions of Versailles were certainly not popular and this is the most recent incident of them being enforced.

Ultimately going into the Rhineland was extremely popular. Hitler was popular. Most Germans will want to blame the French rather than their government. It would be very easy for a government as adept at propaganda as the Nazi's to spin it that way.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Likely something like what happens when the male lion shows weakness. Some other younger lion, or lions, come along and rips the weakling to shreds.
 
Thank you everyone for replying. Interesting insights.
Before commenting on your ideas, I'd notice they all deal with the political internal and international outcomes. But what about the military situation? If the area is demilitarized again, how this will influence the next steps? Is a new attempt, not with a bluff but with some real force behind it, in the cards?
 

Redbeard

Banned
Thank you everyone for replying. Interesting insights.
Before commenting on your ideas, I'd notice they all deal with the political internal and international outcomes. But what about the military situation? If the area is demilitarized again, how this will influence the next steps? Is a new attempt, not with a bluff but with some real force behind it, in the cards?

I think the political situation is so radically changed that the isolated military importance of a demiltarized zone is negligible.

In OTL Hitler aquired his "magic" by again and again winning his gambles although warned by experienced generals and diplomats. In this ATL there is nothing magic about Hitler, he's just a plebarian corporal who obviously hasn't got a clue about statesmanship.

I doubt he will survive, but no matter who is in charge in Germany, gambling with international affairs is unlikely for many years to come. Anschluss is unlikley, but not impossible. It depends of the Italian stance, but in this ATL Mussolini will probably feel senior partner for longer and have less motivation to hand over Austria to Germany. I also guess the Austrians would be less likely to join the Nazi failure. Munich and Poland are impossible, and any signs of German rearmament are likely to be responded to immediately.

Most probably Germany will be politically unstable and not a threat to anyone outside Germany. But of course, if we nevertheless somehow get a heavily rearmed Germany a surprise attack like that in May 1940 will be much more difficult with a demilitarised zone. OTOH the French in 1940 were so convinced that the Germans would do what French planning had planned them to do, that they really didn't look after what actually happened...until it was too late.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Likely something like what happens when the male lion shows weakness. Some other younger lion, or lions, come along and rips the weakling to shreds.

Except ofcourse one could employ the examples of Saddam or Milesovic who managed to last a decade after making a far greater error than Hitler has here. Argueably they might have lasted longer if they hadn't kept making those errors of judgement.

The public at large want to re-occupy the Rhineland. Hitler is unlikely to get kicked out for doing what is popular, he can easilly spin the issue so its not a personal humilation but yet another example of the Versailles-enforcing world hating Germany and Germans for no good reason. It might not be completely true but do you doubt people would believe it?

With regard to the military situation it depends what the French do. If Germany backs down quickly (which would seem a given in your scenario) then France, let alone Poland cannot remain mobilized for any length of time without inccuring significant economic costs and opposition from numerous parties. France will not annex the Rhineland, nor is she likely to occupy indefinately at considerable cost.

You might even see considerable opposition within France to the whole episode. Just why has she undertaken the considerable costs of mobilizing just to kick out a few people on bicycles and let some tank crews fraternize with frauleins over the border? Preparing to fight the war that wasn't would likely have considerable impact on future French politics.

If this situation strengthens France, Hitler will likely have to call off his plans for a year or two. If on the otherhand it just increases political instability in France then Hitler may well be in the Rhineland within 12 months.
 

Markus

Banned
But its most important weakness was in the fact that its much-vaunted army was an unwieldy machine. Its mobilization plans took 15 days to make it ready for war.

Anybody having more information, like how long it took others to fully mobilize or how much of the Army was mobilized within 7 to 10 days?
Not that it will matter in this scenario.

edit: About the PR-effect: Hitler was popular for the peaceful undoing of the ToV, another war with France was most unpopular with the german people.
 
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MrP

Banned
Anybody having more information, like how long it took others to fully mobilize or how much of the Army was mobilized within 7 to 10 days?
Not that it will matter in this scenario.

edit: About the PR-effect: Hitler was popular for the peaceful undoing of the ToV, another war with France was most unpopular with the german people.

Mobilisation plans for Britain in WWI (6 Infantry Divisions, 1 large Cavalry Division) were about a fortnight, including getting them to Mons, I think. The main problem is getting everything ready. If one just needed a rapid reaction force, one could probably have a corps of 2-3 divisions ready in a few days - without its full support element allotment, mind. But don't take my word for it. My stomach is disagreeing with me very vehemently this evening. :(
 
It is possible for Germany to split UK and France over this issue, as in our TL Germany did the same thinng over the navel teaty in 1935 (I think the year is right?).

It could be possible to do the same with Germany taking back the Rhineland, after all the UK did not what another war and also the UK was more worried about Japan at the time.

Hope this helps?

Thanks

Whatisinaname
 

sanusoi

Banned
[FONT=&quot]In that situation, a lot of it would be a gamble. I would expect one of several things to happen

1/ The German Army and Co will have to think carefully about playing the French

2/ The German army appeals to the British government to mediate the conflict

3/ The German government threatens that if their county goes through the sinkhole, Stalin might get his dirty little paws in Germany and thus Ropes might suffer domino effect.

Now no matter what happens, the Germans are going to have to back down somehow, the magic is how they deal with it. If they are clever they can create a victim scenario and play the fiddle for the next decade. Get it wrong and the French might decide to hold Germany to ransom for the next 25 years.

Then again thinking about it, I don't expect the French to do that, opposition parties would consider that as warmongering.

Let's further the ideas of this thread, how will the outside world react to this debacle[/FONT]
 
On March 19, Hitler reappeared before the Reichstag after several days of silence by the German government. He made one of his stirring speeches, rousing the members in the denunciation of the naked French aggression into German territory, against the peaceful exercise of a right every nation had. He rallied the German people around the Führer and vowed the Rhineland would one day return under full German sovereignty."The French warmongers cannot steal from us what is rightfully ours" were his words.
Hitler's popularity spiked again throughout the nation. Germans largely saw the accident as yet another humiliation for they country stemming from Versailles, not as a failure of their government. Several military leaders had a different assessment, but now that they had averted the risk of a reasounding defeat, they would keep silent. Hitler, on his part, would not forget how they had made him swallow his pride.

On March 21, the British Cabinet received the French Foreign Minister Flandin. The British position, made in uncharacteristically direct terms, was that if the French wanted to play these tricks alone, without previous consultation with the British, they should not expect an automatic support by Britain. Attempts were then made at defining a common policy to follow for the future as to the status of the Rhineland, but they failed, save for the agreement that the League of Nations had to take a position on the issue.

By the end of March, both the French and Polish units had demobilized. The French made an announcement that they would withdraw their troops from German territory as soon as the German government made a public commitment to comply with Versailles. On the ground, their troops had crept back to a token occupation of the Saarbrücken area only.

Hitler of course made no such statements; on the contrary, in early April he went on record once again saying that Versailles had to be "entirely reviewed, one way or another". German propaganda played up the shootings that had taken place, portraying the civilians, border officials and policemen who had taken arms against the invader as true Volkisch heroes. German motorized troops were deployed just out of the demilitarized zone and ostentatiously earmarked as "Gruppe Rheinland". They were actually in battalion strength for the time being.
Both the French and the German army staffs and officership renewed their interest in motorized troops, professional units, and rapid-deployment forces. A booklet by a French officer, de Gaulle, titled "Vers l'armée de métier" ("Towards a professional army"), which had been published a year before, became the fad in the French army. The French staff began studying the possibility of keeping a standing motorized unit on the border. At the same time, French generals and politicians had a greater worry: what amounted to an occupation force still sitting across that border. Withdrawing it while the Germans were making no mystery of their intentions could be seen as having achieved nothing; but keeping it there indefinitely was very unpalatable.

In that time frame, Germany and Britain began talks with a view to a sizable update of the naval terms of the Versailles treaty. The move was made by Germany, but the British were interested in avoiding an expensive naval escalation and deemed that the Versailles conditions were unrealistically harsh anyway. But coming right after the Rhineland accident, these meetings were widely seen as a sign of a growing rift between France and Britain; a rift the German propaganda played up, helped by the French complaints about them.
Meanwhile, the organs of the League of Nations began the laborious procedure for reviewing the events and passing their judgement. It was evident from the beginning that these were unlikely to support France, given the British position and the attitude of the smaller neutral states. In this case, they were well represented by Belgium, which, while being even more threatened thatn France by German troops in the Rhineland, still had nothing to say about them.

In May, the French elected a leftist government, headed by Léon Blum. His Front had been successful in the impressive feat of campaigning with a denunciation of the inept management of the Rhineland accident, while at the same time advocating a firm opposition to Nazi Germany. It was thus unclear what, in practice, his government would do about the problem.
In this same month, the French troops in Saarbrücken were victims of minor sabotages and two small ambushes by unidentified shooters. In Germany, sordid rumors circulated about French soldiers, maybe of Jewish blood, raping German maidens. British and Italian diplomats increased the pressure on the French for a withdrawal. There was the thorny issue of how to run the small area, also given the total lack of cooperation by local authorities. For instance, half a dozen youths had been detained for sabotaging French property or vehicles, and nobody knew what to do with them, given that the French did not want to set up a military occupation administration.

- What happened next?
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Well Goebbels is going to have to try to spin it as a victory, either by saying its what they wanted to happen afterall (I don't think they made any prior announcements about their intention, did they?) or by playing up French aggression for internal consumption

The Olympics is coming the next year...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I see France withdrawing, the French gov can't realy do anything else !!

Germany still gains control of the Rhineland with both UK and Italy support, this may change the UK's view of Germany (well in the short therm anyway!!) and with the navel agreement with the UK will not harm Germany's postion.

Might even help with Austria though I don't in the long term it will help with Chezkslovakia etc.

But I do think the UK may move slightly closer to Germany and any from France.

Thanks

Whatisinaname
 
The real issue is what happens if the Rhineland continues to not be held by German troops. Not only would the Rhineland be exceptionally vulnerable in 1939 if German troops have to be rushed in at the same time as the much larger French army but this means not even the slightest work done on defenses.
 
The real issue is what happens if the Rhineland continues to not be held by German troops. Not only would the Rhineland be exceptionally vulnerable in 1939 if German troops have to be rushed in at the same time as the much larger French army but this means not even the slightest work done on defenses.

In fact. Glad to see we agree. That's why I asked posters about their comments on the military situation.
But given both my own impressions and the feedback, it seems unlikely the situation in 1939 will still be like that (unmilitarized, unfortified Rhineland).
This is not to say the divergence goes back to the OTL fold.
 
It is quite likely that Hitler would be removed from power as a result of the Rhineland mess. There were quite a few elements in the German army and Intelligence group that were hostile to Hitler. It is quite likely that the Military would stage a coup and install a temporary military government. In order to gain stability I believe that the military would re-establish the Monarchy. It is quite possible that one of the Kaiser's Grandsons would be installed on the throne since there were objections to the Kaiser or his son bing the ruler of Germany.
 
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