Crud. I forgot Baker. You're right, he'd be the guy. He'd then lose, and I imagine Reagan would win in '78 though I may be wrong.
Frankly I think there would be a special election, but I can see the argument against. Anyway my (expanded) version of events:
No 25th Amendment means Nixon would resign earlier—he has no VP and for all his faults Nixon never meant to divide the nation. In both 1968 and '72 he choose to run quite principled, he likely could have had 2-5 million more votes in '68 if he hammered Johnson on the flipping of the Vietnam peace and he very carefully and deliberately stayed away from Wallace voters. To be fair Humphrey could have jumped on Ann Chennault (who was not being run by Nixon) and probably won in '68.
Anyway. With Agnew gone on 10 October 1973 let's say Nixon realizes he has no VP and with no 25th Amendment in place he talks to Carl Albert. Nixon resigns for the good of the nation and Carl Albert, in his last act before resigning from Congress, announces that 1974 will see a special election and calls on Congress to conduct the constitutional changes required. This will become this timeline's version of the 25th Amendment.
Carl Albert becomes president of the United States on the 8th of November, 1973 (symbolism
and nominates (under the RNC's urging) one Howard Baker to Vice-President of the United States.
By the end of the November the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution has been passed[1] and a special election to the presidency will be held in 1974 and for every 4 years following that.
President Carl Albert then resigns from office, and President Howard Baker is sworn on.
The New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucus are mere months away.
By default Howard Baker is the leading Republican candidate. Both the Draft Reagan and Draft Rockefeller movements run into the candidates complete unwillingness to run following Watergate. Howard Baker accepts the bullet for the party and goes down into defeat with his head held high.
On the Democratic side we have:
Humphrey, Muskie, Draft Kennedy, McGovern (he's now validated in his '72 Nixon corruption charge), Henry 'Scoop' Jackson (he ran in both '72 and '76 and did ok both times), Frank Church
As
Tgibbs says the 'safe' candidate has a huge lead. Humphrey or Muskie most likely, but I could see Church and Jackson both doing well and being likely VPs.
The thing with Humphrey is that he's a loser and an old 'New Deal' liberal at this point in time. This will probably hamper him.
Muskie has the 'crying' thing to get over from '72.
Neither Church or Jackson are that well known.
McGovern got his ass kicked in '72.
Kennedy has scandal.
Are there any other national Democratic figures at this point in time? Carter's I still can't see (again I agree with
Tgibbs in his being a high up there VP candidate) and Jerry Brown who I'd see as one of the leading guys isn't California Governor yet.
Carl Albert won't run. Speaker O'Neill just became Speaker so he's probably fine where he is.
Hmm… Actually what about Morris 'Mo' Udall? He did well in 1976, he's liberal enough to win the primary and a much more modern liberal than Humphrey as well as a better speaker than Muskie (who'd be another good VP match for him), he's from Arizona… I like him. He may well win.
Anyway.
Whoever the Democratic nominee is he'll in 1974. Easily.
1978 is another matter. Here Reagan will surely win the Republican nomination and if Mo Udall is the Democratic nominee he's rather liberal for the times (with no anti-Nixon boost). He may not run, and if he does he may be Johnson'd in the early primaries and withdraw.
[1] The 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution covers the resignation or death of a sitting President with no Vice-President.
In short: the Speaker of the House will assume the office of the Presidency. He will then nominate for the Vice-Presidency a candidate chosen by the National Committee for the Party of the previous President.
The President will then resign. The Vice-President will assume office, nominate a Vice-President (see below) and serve out the reminder of the term.
Vice-Presidents may now be nominated by a sitting President with no Vice-President as long as he is under no reasonable threat of criminal charges or impeachment hearings—if he is he may not nominate a Vice-President.
There will be a special election on the 8th of November, 1974 for the office of the President of the United States.
There will be no further special elections except under extraordinary circumstances and all future US Presidential elections will occur every four years from 1974 onwards.
