Yeah, this isn't gonna end well for the elder Humph, is it? First concealing his bladder cancer from voters, then an attempt to get the veep out in a fashion that, with hindsight, is going to be blatantly kicking him down the line of succession, and his son being appointed to his old Senate seat - this is a very bad look which seems to be heading to blow up in his face right before he dies.
The President Lay Dying: A TLIAW
- Thread starter Vidal
- Start date
No reason to believe that, based on hundreds of thousands of case histories.
August 3, 1977
August 3, 1977
Hubert Humphrey needed a new Vice President. Jimmy Carter had just signed the letter:
Dear Mr. Secretary:
I hereby resign the Office of Vice President of the United States, effective at noon tomorrow, August 4, 1977. It has been an honor to serve the American people in this role, and I look forward to the work that lies ahead.
Sincerely,
Jimmy Carter
In truth, the frustration had been mounting since December 1976, not long after President-elect Humphrey tried to convince Jimmy Carter to become Secretary of State instead of Vice President. Just days after Carter rejected his offer, the incoming Vice President received word that there would not be a desk for him in the West Wing. Instead, like other Vice Presidents, he would be relegated to the Old Executive Office Building. Carter was upset by the news and went to the president-elect directly. Surely it was a mistake, Carter reasoned, but Humphrey did not placate him. Instead, he said it was for the best. It was better for Jimmy to be with his staff and team — and besides, Humphrey had too many staffers to spare an office for the VP.
Shortly after the inauguration, Carter went to Humphrey and asked for some kind of a role in the Panama Canal negotiations. After all, he reasoned, Humphrey had implied he was the best man for the job once before. Humphrey shook his head. “Jimmy, that’s really for Cy Vance and State to take the lead on. Too many cooks in the kitchen — that sort of thing.” He offered a weak smile.
International incidents often called the President to the White House Situation Room. Carter, though sometimes invited, came short of attending “all of them” — as he’d been promised.
In fact, it seemed the White House wanted Carter in Washington as little as possible. He was sent off to the Midwest for roundtable meetings with farmers. They sent him South to meet with governors there. If a local Democratic club in North Dakota invited the president, Carter went instead. In a sense, the Vice President didn’t mind. He figured all of these meetings were only helping him prepare for a presidential run in eight years — and given Humphrey’s increasingly frail presence, Carter privately speculated if he would even run again in 1980.
Hamilton Jordan was none too pleased. As Chief of Staff to the Vice President, he was supposed to be in on a number of the policy and planning meetings happening in the West Wing. He attended only two for the duration of Carter’s vice presidency. Carter raised the issues with the president directly at one of their weekly lunches. His team was out of the loop, Carter said, and if Carter was going to help with advancing the president’s agenda, they needed to be involved in those conversations. Humphrey nodded in agreement but the invitations never came. Jordan’s calls to Sherman and other members of the White House senior staff went ignored. He complained to one Senator, “They don’t give a damn about us.” Stu Eizenstat, a policy adviser to Carter, complained to a friendly Congressman that John Nance Garner’s description of the vice presidency — that it wasn’t worth a bucket of warm piss — was generous. “It’s not even worth a bucket of cold piss.”
Rosalynn Carter sensed her husband’s frustration, especially in March after he returned from a cabinet meeting. He’d come to the gathering with a lengthy policy memo for each cabinet secretary with his ideas on how he could aid each of their departments. Humphrey thanked him, but proceeded to ignore a host of Carter’s suggestions when the topic turned to energy. The White House was advancing legislation to form a Department of Energy, and Carter hoped to be involved in the process. Though Humphrey disregarded Carter’s ideas for energy policy, he did enlist Carter’s help in crafting the Department.
At their final “weekly” lunch — in mid-March — Humphrey asked Carter to take the lead on the initiative. “I want you to craft the Department of Energy into everything you think it should be. Take meetings on the Hill — do whatever you think. We’ll support you all the way,” the president said. Carter was thrilled. It finally felt he was out of the doghouse.
But then came the leaks.
They started in the Gossip columns with headlines like “Carter sidelined.” They depicted the Vice President as bumbling, his staff as inept, and his ideas as ignored. Then, they graduated into the specter of “real news.” One article in the Post said it was on good authority that the president, frustrated with his choice of a partner, had already resigned himself to the fact that Carter would be dropped from the ticket in 1980. A host of “senior White House officials” said that Carter’s “embarrassing performance” as Veep had rendered him “toxic” to Humphrey’s future. Carter couldn’t believe it. Not only was he angry, frustrated, and in disbelief — he was hurt. He had long admired Humphrey, and when he tried to reach out to the President to correct the record, to ask if he really had been doing something wrong or if the President could control his staff, he was rebuffed.
In truth, not all of these calls went unanswered because Humphrey didn’t want to speak to Carter. Many went unanswered because he couldn’t. For hours — sometimes even days — at a time, the president was confined to his bed in the Residence. Shades were tightly drawn as he writhed in excruciating pain. His body was riddled with cancer, and he was taking less than the recommended chemotherapy so as not to arouse public suspicion.
His staff advanced his issues for him. Humphrey fretted that there would be no one there who would sign the bills when they passed. Muriel Humphrey would later write that her husband’s fear that Carter would “decimate” his legacy was unfounded and implanted in his brain by advisors who were always suspicious of Carter. “In truth, my husband loved his first vice president. He respected the remarkable feat Carter accomplished during the 1976 primaries. But the men giving advice convinced him that if Carter succeeded him, all of their hard work would be for not. I believe those men killed my husband.”
Deeply unhappy, Carter called in his old pollster, Pat Caddell. The way Carter saw it, he had a political problem. His mind still focused on getting to the Oval Office, he needed a political answer. Carter deputized Caddell to run extensive national polling as well as an Iowa focus group based on those results.
He did not like what he heard back.
Carter, who had been viewed more favorably than Humphrey, Ford, and Dole during the ’76 campaign, was now struggling. Voters, for the first time since Caddell had polled Carter, had a more unfavorable impression of him than favorable. Just over half of Democrats expected to vote in 1980 said they were “Unlikely” or “Not at all likely” to consider Carter for the presidential nomination. Voters who identified as liberal disapproved of Carter’s job performance 2-1. It was a stunning turn.
The focus group provided them with more answers. Many of the Iowans had caucused for Carter. Why didn’t they want to again? Those who had cooled on Carter were clear: He wasn’t his own man anymore. He had gone to Washington and become one of “them.” One voter told Caddell that it seemed all Carter did was Humphrey’s bidding. Another chimed in, “And from what I read, he doesn’t even do that well.”
When Caddell returned with the results in the Summer of 1977, Carter, Ham Jordan, and the rest of the team looked on with dread. In that moment, it seemed Carter’s political future was dead. Carter wanted to know what everyone thought he should do.
Jordan offered, perhaps, the most sensible solution. Instead of waiting for the White House to tell them what to do, they should put Carter out front on the issues. Instead of clearing his statements and interviews with the West Wing, they should have Carter on Meet the Press advancing his own ideas. It would show he was his own man, and it would force the president to engage with him. Carter wasn’t interested. “I’m not doing that to the president,” he said. Besides, Carter reasoned, it would burn all his bridges with Democratic elected officials in town.
“You don’t have ‘em anyway,” Jordan shot back. Carter moved on. He wasn’t going to do it.
Pat Caddell, true to form, provided the group with the most radical idea: If Carter wanted a shot at the presidency in 1980 or 1984, he had to resign as Vice President and go back to Georgia. “Run for Governor in 1978.” Jordan reminded him there was already a Democratic governor of Georgia who would — for the first time in the state’s history — be eligible to run for a second term. Fine, Caddell said. Senate. Again, Jordan pointed out that Sam Nunn, a popular new Senator, would be running for a second term.
“Tell Humphrey to make him Vice President instead,” Caddell offered. He was only half-kidding.
Carter waved it off. “If I do that, I look like a quitter.”
Caddell shrugged. “Mr. Vice President, all I can say is that soon you need to find a way to distinguish yourself from Humphrey. You need to take a pronounced lead on an important policy issue. You need to do something to win back these voters, because with these numbers, there’s no way Humphrey keeps you on the ticket in 1980. And then you’re finished.”
Message received.
History may have unfolded differently if Pat Caddell hadn’t become such a creature of the Washington party scene, but as fate would have it, Caddell enjoyed the evening of the Fourth of July with a buxom brunette who just happened to work as the Executive Assistant to the Deputy Chief of Staff. After their romp, Caddell got up to use the bathroom while his company for the night tried to find a cigarette in her purse. When she couldn’t locate one, she headed over to Caddell’s desk to see if he had one — and that’s when she saw it: A copy of the poll that Carter had commissioned. She’d taken notes for her boss at a meeting with Chief of Staff Sherman where they discussed the “Carter Problem” — they were trying to find a way to replace the Vice President.
As she flipped through the pages, her eyes caught a memo from Caddell summarizing the numbers — and what actions Carter should take. She slipped a copy of that into her purse and slinked back to the bed before Caddell emerged from the bathroom.
When she returned to work, she provided her boss with the memo. He read Caddell’s recommendations and suddenly an idea came to him. He knew how they were going to fix their Carter problem.
Racing to Sherman’s office, the deputy plopped the memo down and said just three words: “Secretary of Energy.”
Sherman was confused. “What are you talking about?”
“We make Carter Secretary of Energy. Look, here. It’s a memo from Carter’s pollster. Look at the summary of recommendations. Carter’s numbers are down. He needs a policy portfolio. He needs to set himself apart from Humphrey. Create his own image. It’s all there. We offer him Secretary of Energy. He’s practically designed the entire Department. He and Eizenstat have been sending off memos for weeks with ideas for federal energy policy. Deregulation — all of that. It’s perfect.”
Sherman wasn’t so sure. “I can’t imagine more of a demotion.” He shook his head. “I don’t think it’ll work.”
“Listen to me, boss. He is looking for an escape hatch. If we give him this…”
Sherman agreed to take it to the president.
The president loved the idea. In fact, he wanted to see Carter right away! But there was just one hiccup — Carter was in Texas for a meeting with Governor Briscoe. As luck would have it, that wasn’t much of a problem at all.
Briscoe was full of ideas for Carter to take back with him to Washington, most notably: Deregulation of the natural gas industry. He had brought a staffer to talk through it all with Carter — to get into the weeds — but make no mistake: This was issue number one for Briscoe. He needed it done, and he needed Carter to push Humphrey and Humphrey’s friend Scoop Jackson (Chairman of the relevant Senate committee) to change their minds about the issue.
On the plane back, Carter was excited. Here was an issue he could take to the president, and it would have the added benefit of endearing himself to natural gas-producing governors and states. (Not that Carter really needed help with these states — they were his bread and butter.)
The next day, Carter and Humphrey met in the Oval, and before Carter could brief the president on his meeting with Briscoe, Humphrey laid it on thick. Who did Carter think should be Secretary of Energy? He’d interviewed some of the possibilities. Carter tossed around names. Humphrey dismissed them all. “I don’t trust them. I’m trying to get this employment bill through Congress — I need someone who doesn’t need training on the job!”
Then, Humphrey danced his way towards the idea of Secretary Carter. Before he got there, Carter cut in with Briscoe’s thoughts about natural gas. Humphrey adopted Carter’s trademark grin and changed the subject.
“Jimmy, I’m just so sorry about how these first few months have gone. I want you to know I’ve come down on my staff. We fired a secretary who had made up some of that bull in the papers.” Carter thanked him.
“You know I value you and your expertise. Nobody has been smarter on these energy issues than you have been. Would you think about being Secretary? I just don’t trust anyone to do it, and if we don’t have a Secretary of Energy who can really show the strength of that Department and make it into something real, I’m afraid the Republicans will come in after us and tear it all down.”
At first, Carter felt miffed, but as Humphrey slowly paced the office, Carter thought more about it and couldn’t believe his fortune. Inaugural Secretary of Energy. A policy platform on one of the premier issues of the day. He’d be a separate and distinct voice from Humphrey. He could re-establish himself. He wouldn’t be flown off to faraway lands to negotiate with tribes and parliaments; he’d be on TV every day talking to the voters about the most important issue on their minds. Finally, a break.
Carter didn’t say yes on the spot, but he did promise to think about it. Humphrey thanked him.
Hamilton Jordan laughed Carter out of the room. “You want to be Secretary of Energy? Boss, it’s not even a job yet!”
Carter explained that — as he saw it — that was the beauty of it. He could make into a powerhouse role. He’d be given carte blanche on an issue Americans were thinking about every day. It was exactly what he needed. Jody Powell backed up Jordan, so the Vice President called in three more voices: Caddell, Eizenstat, and Rosalynn.
Caddell argued it was exactly what Carter needed from a political standpoint. It gave him back authority. It gave him a platform to distinguish himself from the issues. Jordan interrupted. He’s still going to be Humphrey’s Secretary of Energy, he reminded the room. Caddell waved it off. “He can say whatever he wants.” Jordan was in disbelief. This kid had no idea how any of it worked.
“No precinct captain picks up a call from the Secretary of Energy!” Jordan roared.
“Ham, they don’t pick up for the least popular Vice President since Aaron Burr, either!” Caddell turned nervously to Carter. “No offense, Mr. Vice President. It’s not your fault.” Carter waved him off.
Eizenstat, the brainiac and policy whiz of the group, wanted Carter to do it if for no other reason than they could really make a difference — write legislation, influence Senators and Congressmen, execute the policies.
Rosalynn wanted her husband to be successful and for him to be happy. She thought only one opportunity afforded him both.
After a few days of tireless deliberation, Jimmy Carter decided he was doing it. He would be the nation’s first Secretary of Energy. Humphrey was thrilled, throwing his arm around Carter at the press conference. The papers heaped universal praise. It was an issue Carter had been studying as Vice President, and it solved a political problem for Humphrey. Everyone was a winner. Now, they said, the president just needed to appoint Carter’s replacement.
He would, but, more dramatically, he had to reveal some painful news.
I am not sure I understand Carter’s reasoning. If HH is in such obviously poor health, it would make infinitely more sense to tough it out as VP. After all, he is just a heartbeat away.
As well, I question the plausibility of Humphrey effectively concealing his illness. His declining physical appearance will be obvious, and I don’t see how he spends days in bed without his Presidency being consumed by an inferno of media speculation.
These two factors make it very difficult for me to see Carter quitting.
As well, I question the plausibility of Humphrey effectively concealing his illness. His declining physical appearance will be obvious, and I don’t see how he spends days in bed without his Presidency being consumed by an inferno of media speculation.
These two factors make it very difficult for me to see Carter quitting.
Deleted member 139407
Yes, he would be able to get to the presidency, but he won’t be able to stay there come 1980 if he doesn’t fix his relationship with the voters and fix the image that he has lost. Not only has he given off the appearance of a needy official trying to get the attention of Daddy Humphrey, but President Humphrey himself has not disclosed his illness, which is something directly in the public’s interest; given that this is fresh off of President “I’m not a crook” and President “Pardon the crook”, Vice President Carter is facing insurmountable odds to be re-elected against ANY Republican nominee simply because he tied himself to Humphrey’s cancer-stricken wagon. In short, he truly does need an out, an effort to save face, and come into his own as a capable leader come 1980. The Energy Department, in this timeline’s Carter’s mind, is that out.
This is fair, and I address it in next chapter, but maybe should have included here as well. Humphrey's appearance takes a toll after the surgery, but he has started to rebound by March -- putting back on weight, etc. He is not undergoing chemotherapy, so while the cancer is putting him in pain, he is not experiencing some of the more pronounced side effects of cancer treatment, notably hair loss. This sort of mirrors Humphrey's appearance IOTL. Carter notes in his WH Diary that HHH looks "near death" in December of '76, but then, a few months into '78, he remarks that Humphrey looks far better than he did back in December, and even that he expected Humphrey to have more time in him than he'd thought.
As to your point about his schedule, I think the Seventies were an interesting balance between Television Age and Social Media Age. Humphrey is rallying for some public appearances -- press briefings, cabinet meetings, etc. He's taking some staff meetings in private study in the Residence -- and he's reaching out to Congressmen and Senators via phone. Plenty of presidents have kept a light work schedule.
I would also argue that with something like this a patient is bound to have "good weeks and bad weeks" -- there are enough times when Humphrey can go a few days of an active schedule to allay concerns. Then, he may spend a day or two in bed but working via phone only to resurface for a public appearance and a heavy work day in the Oval. This kind of a roller coaster of his condition helps him keep questions and concerns at bay.
Admittedly, this was not my intention, but I think you raise interesting points that some historians and scholars inevitably would ITTL: "Carter must've known and only wanted to spare himself the fall out..."
Deleted member 139407
I mean, he also did know the President was on his way out physically based on his “He looks like death,” comment. He just didn’t know it was cancer. If that gets out that Vice President Carter (if he had stubbornly stayed on) had suspiscions of the Health of President Humphrey and didn’t invoke the 25th in a hearing in front of Congress, his re-election in 1980 has about a snowball’s chance in the Sahara.
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IMO it's more likely that Carter would be able to play the victim card ITTL; he was deliberately not told of the president's cancer and it's not like his diary is going to be freely available, at least until a few decades after 1980. And as for re-election, Carter's resignation to go be Energy Secretary certainly means any 1980 run from him isn't gonna be a reelection; and there's no way in hell Humphrey makes it to 1980 to run again. Could haunt Humphrey's successor's re-election, but not for Carter or Humphrey.
Deleted member 139407
All true! In terms of the 1980 thing, I was primarily speaking about it in terms of if Carter stayed on. However, looking back at my original message, that didn’t come off fully (especially in the last sentences of my original post).
So, yeah, no way Secretary of Energy Carter gets the nom in 1980. In all likelihood, that goes to the soon-to-be-announced Vice President. However, in 1984 is where Secretary Carter has better chances.
Apologies for the confusion.
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I want to start by saying this is a fantastic idea for a TL I've never read before. It's totally plausible. I've been reading a lot about Humphrey in 1976. I'm not sure there was ever a year that was Humphrey's year. David S. Broder makes a good point that a man who can be beaten by John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, and George McGovern might just not be cut out to be President. But the American people needed a cheerleader of sorts in 1976 and that's Humphrey. The idea of him concealing his cancer, going with Carter, and then having to deal with the fallout is pretty inspired stuff.
But I will say, I'm not totally sure that I buy Carter's logic in leaving his position knowing that Humphrey is going to die, especially in that media climate. Let's say Hubert Humphrey dies of cancer. Even if he conceals it from the American people, the media climate was pretty different in the late 1970's but it's still going to be favorable towards a President dying of cancer. There's going to be some kind of farewell address where he says goodbye to the American people. There's still going to be some kind of outpouring of support towards a public servant of over thirty years. And Jimmy Carter would get to be the person who heals the nation, which is... I mean... probably the best use of his talents, right? Like, it's really hard to imagine a better time for a sermon than after a President dies.
I know you're saying that he looks much better, but by the late 1970's, every single President since Truman had concerns about not making it through a term. Eisenhower had concerns about his health. Kennedy obv. Johnson didn't run for reelection. Nixon resigned. Ford had assassination attempts. Why wouldn't Carter say "You're not pushing this cracker from being a hair's breadth away?" Also, IRL Carter certainly had more concern about doing the right thing while in office rather than the politically expeditious thing. Why would this Carter be any different?
(Also, I think you really cracked a terrific scenario.)
I actually think it's very plausible for Carter to not realize the extent of Humphrey's illness. As I see it, if Humphrey is starting to look better, isn't saying anything about his health, and there's no particular reason to think he's deliberately concealing anything… it's easy enough to reason that his aged appearance is just, well, age. "Did Humphrey always seem so frail? Well, I suppose his age is catching up to him, now." ITTL, Humphrey is inaugurated a few months shy of his 66th birthday, and while 66 might not sound that old these days — what with an octogenarian in the White House — in 1976, this actually makes Humphrey the third-oldest president at time of election.
That Carter is also desperately looking for an out, and Humphrey is dangling a dream portfolio in front of him, also goes a long way in explaining why Carter isn't thinking long-term.
That Carter is also desperately looking for an out, and Humphrey is dangling a dream portfolio in front of him, also goes a long way in explaining why Carter isn't thinking long-term.
Thank you!
I don’t think he knows HHH is going to die. HHH looks horrible after his surgery, but with that months in the past, he’s put on some weight again and looks more or less as he did throughout much of 76.
HHH has not revealed — even to Carter — that he has cancer.
Thank you, again! I appreciate the comment.
This is essentially my thinking. After HHH puts on some weight post-surgery and initial treatment, Carter may be thinking, gosh, Humphrey looks tired, but he doesn’t really have a reason to think it’s anything more than wear and tear from the presidency. It’s worth noting that there’s some 6-8 months between “Humphrey looked to be on death’s door” and Carter’s resignation. In that time, the president’s made a bit of recovery.
Nobody is suspecting “The president occasionally looks pale, etc. therefore he’s concealing a terminal illness” — so when Carter gets what he deems a good political opportunity, he takes it.
Yeah, they poll for the possibility HHH doesn’t run again, but that’s more a matter of covering all their bases. You’ll notice when Caddell makes a final characterization of how bad the numbers are, he doesn’t say, “You’ll lose the 1980 primary…” He says, “You’ll get dropped from the ticket…” because that’s the assumption they’re all working under — that HHH will be the nominee in 1980
I do like this—obviously Humph can’t tell Carter “yeah you might become President if you stay on as Veep and I don’t want that because I hate your policies”, so we get this passive-aggressive situation where the administration are pissing in Carter’s face and telling him it’s raining.
My hunch is that Humphrey’s going to choose Sen. Dale Bumpers to replace Carter. Like Carter, Bumper’s a southerner, but he’s also more of a New Dealer than Carter.