The Norman Conquest of England failing, and effects on the continent.

A few threads on this topic have been done some years ago, but they either derailed or focused on discussing England, so lets assume that William is killed at Hastings and the House of Godwin remains on the throne for a while. What would be the implications on continental Europe?

The big one is France, where I've heard it said that the absence of the Angevin Empire would speed up centralisation, or would slow it down due to a lack of foreign threat. From what I gather, even before the Angevins grew into a substantial threat, centralisation was taking place under Louis VI and the marriage of Louis VII and Eleanor, but it is also unclear if Phillip Augustus, or a figure in his place, would have been able to easily seize all that Norman land and get the French realm to support him without the Angevin threat. Thinking closer to the scenario, the Duchy of Normandy is likely out of the fight for a generation, with the chaos that would ensue after William's death probably inviting Duke Conan of Brittany to invade.

Another region people often mention is Scandinavia, with dynastical, cultural and blood ties probably entailing an interest in that region, although I'm not sure there is any precedent of that from the West Saxon Kings. There's also Iberia and Germany, which I don't believe would be substantially impacted by a lack of Norman England, unless I am missing something.
 
A few threads on this topic have been done some years ago, but they either derailed or focused on discussing England, so lets assume that William is killed at Hastings and the House of Godwin remains on the throne for a while. What would be the implications on continental Europe?

The big one is France, where I've heard it said that the absence of the Angevin Empire would speed up centralisation, or would slow it down due to a lack of foreign threat. From what I gather, even before the Angevins grew into a substantial threat, centralisation was taking place under Louis VI and the marriage of Louis VII and Eleanor, but it is also unclear if Phillip Augustus, or a figure in his place, would have been able to easily seize all that Norman land and get the French realm to support him without the Angevin threat. Thinking closer to the scenario, the Duchy of Normandy is likely out of the fight for a generation, with the chaos that would ensue after William's death probably inviting Duke Conan of Brittany to invade.

Another region people often mention is Scandinavia, with dynastical, cultural and blood ties probably entailing an interest in that region, although I'm not sure there is any precedent of that from the West Saxon Kings. There's also Iberia and Germany, which I don't believe would be substantially impacted by a lack of Norman England, unless I am missing something.


if we consider that England's so-called " Norman ties " date back at least 36 years before William, I don't see why, without a successful invasion, England shouldn't be interested in what happens in France ( certainly the ability to intervene will obviously smaller than Otl, but the ties will remain ) as regards the Normans it is probable that many of them will be reused by the Altavilla in their conquests ( therefore a greater Norman presence in Africa and Southern Italy and Greece compared to Otl, especially because the Norman presence in these places predated William's campaign by at least 30 years or so ) and considering the expansionist aspirations in the "Byzantine" empire and in the north of the peninsula, it is probable that we will see a first nucleus of the kingdom of Sicily which is much stronger and in full expansion ( I believe that the first areas affected will be Umbria and the Marche, with perhaps some contingents scattered between Tuscany and the Po Valley but quite disconnected from royal control ) while the rest can go to fight in Iberia or even for the Emperor himself ( even if I see it as a difficult scenario ) obviously without forgetting their possible job offer for the Pope or for Matilde of Canossa
 
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French centralisation or not could indeed go both ways.
Would the Norman conquering sprees be completely stopped by that? If so, effects on Southern Italy are relevant.
Effects on the HRE would be indirect (depending on effects on France and, to a lesser extent, Italy).
Ireland would look considerably different, I would think.
 
There's also Iberia and Germany, which I don't believe would be substantially impacted by a lack of Norman England, unless I am missing something.
It is far down the track but it would have a strong impact on the Albigensian crusade, I don't think in such a world would the rulers in Occitania think to defy the King of France, in fact the Catalonia region could come under the sway of France instead of Aragon.

Eleanor of Aquitaine would not annul her marriage with the King of France, not the least because Henry II would be a mere duke 11 years her junior who unlike our timeline also had no prospects but because the Plantagenets would be butterflied as Henry I would never be born and without being Kings of England then the same marriages would not take place anyway therefore no Plantagenets.
 
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I don't see why, without a successful invasion, England shouldn't be interested in what happens in France ( certainly the ability to intervene will obviously smaller than Otl, but the ties will remain ) as regards the Normans it is probable that many of them will be reused by the Altavilla in their conquests ( therefore a greater Norman presence in Africa and Southern Italy and Greece compared to Otl
England won't totally stay out of France, but it's nothing like a looming threat or anything like the Angevins. I do agree with the point that many Normans would see the Duchy collapse into civil war between Odo and William's sons, opt to leave and conquer something else, leading to an inceased presence in Italy or Greece, which could possibly tip the balance of any close calls during the Norman invasions of Greece. If not then it probably wouldn't be of much significance.

It is far down the track but it would have a strong impact on the Albigensian crusade, I don't think in such a world would the rulers in Occitania think to defy the King of France
The Albigensian Crusade saw capetian authority over Southern France increase dramatically, so that could maybe see some southern French state become powerful, at least for a bit.
 
Harold could marry off Gytha to some powerful-ish count/duke, or son? Lands within the family means a lot
Harold's main concerns post victory in hastings would have been probably with the North of England and Denmark, so Gytha might be married to powerful Northumbrian family or one of Sweyn's sons as to deter an invasion. That's as much as I can see for her.
 
Thinking a bit back on the point with Aquitaine, that Duchy was notably decentralised and hard to control, so I'm not sure if it would entail a quicker French centralisation. Currently leaning towards the idea of the process taking a longer time due to inability to seize swathes of land and how French duchies would be far more cautious of the increasingly powerful crown.
 
Conan II of Brittany doesn't die - he is believed to have been poisoned at William's orders - and probably goes on with his project of expanding Brittany's borders eastward back to what they were under Kings Erispoë's and Salomon's reigns. Given Robert Curthose's reputation, he might be successful in annexing part of Normandy. He'd also marry (maybe one of William's daughters?).
 
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Apropos Greece: does the Varangian guard fill up with underemployed Normans instead of exiled Saxons?

it is hardly, much easier for them to be co-opted by their regionals in southern Italy, given that the ties and news of what Robert the Guiscardo and the other Brothers Altavillas are up to arrived very easily even in Otl England, so I see why they attract many more Normans here in seeks lands and fortunes under their service ( in fact it would be a very normal development ) even if it should be considered that the first Normans arrived in Italy as mercenaries of the Byzantines, before deciding to do things on their own ( so everything is possible )
 
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What would be the implications on continental Europe?
The first and most important is the fact that England has remained outside the European continent for even longer. OTL culture of the English high class was French, ITTL will remain Anglo Saxon (the same with the language of the kingdom). The country will have a culture more similar to Scandinavia and will probably focus more on that region due to cultural reason (especialy denmark).
The big one is France, where I've heard it said that the absence of the Angevin Empire would speed up centralisation, or would slow it down due to a lack of foreign threat.
Angevian hindered the centralization of the French kingdom. Delaying this centralization for a few centuries. ITTL France will probably be centralized around the 13th century (probably around 1250 instead of OTL 1450). ITTL France will begin to expand to Italy, Germany and the Low Countries in the 13th century.

At the same time, a stronger France increased the possibility of French crusaders conquering Egypt (between the 5th, 6th and 7th crusades). It will make France a lot of money until they are expelled from the region by the Mongols (so in we will probably have a Mongol kingdom in Egypt,which makes an Ottoman rise difficult). What could also happen is that the French manage to hold Egypt against the Molgols, less likely but possible. Portugal has the possibility of remaining part of Castile, with them losing without English support the war of 1383. And some other things.

OTL English elite that made England OTL power has its origins in the Norman nobility and I don't know if the Anglo-Saxons will make the same military and cultural decisions as OTL. TTL England is a German/Scandinavian country so I think looking at those countries would be the best idea to compare behavior
West Saxon Kings.
I think this will depend on the king, considering it is an elected position.
There's also Iberia and Germany, which I don't believe would be substantially impacted by a lack of Norman England, unless I am missing something.
No portugal is a big chance.
 
Here’s a thought- the efflux of fleeing Norman’s are less likely to go to Italy, where the spoils are already divided more or less, and more likely to go to Anatolia.

This could strengthen the position of Roussel De Balliol such that he’s able to install John Doukas as emperor, with himself as the first official Grand Domestikos. Johns great nephew constantine remains junior emperor and thus marries Helena, daughter of Robert Guiscard- she brings with her italo-norman troops that solidify the norman supremacy in Byzantium and help recover Anatolia east of roussel de balliols principality of ancyra. The doukas dynasty becomes culturally Norman/ the court of Constantinople becomes dominated by new Norman noble families which eventually replace the doukas.

The core of Norman power in the Mediterranean shifts to Constantinople, and because Norman Italy and Norman Romania are so militarily entwined, Norman Italy becomes a vassal of Constantinople.
 
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Well their seems to have been a balance of power between the Duke of Normandy, Duke of Brittany, Count of Anjou, Count of Flander's and the French crown

When the male lines of those families start dying off and leaving the Plantagenets and Capet house remaining it provided a great boost

To the centralisation of authority in the House of France

It things did not change then most likely it would have taken longer but by the late rule of Philip I of France and Louis Vi they got control of their own crown lands

As for the British isles that would eventually be brought under England's control with the king of Scots Malcolm the third

Placed on the throne by the English

Also the Danish where still lunching attacks on England until mid 1080s
 
France will probably be centralized around the 13th century (probably around 1250 instead of OTL 1450).
If you ask me, France had 2 'centralisations'
First one was in the 1210s with Philip Augustus definitively beating King John and establishing Capet dominance, the second one was the victory in the Hundred Years War, which allowed France to finally turn outwards to external goals. It'll probably take a bit longer for Capet to assert itself over the other Northern French states (Anjou, Normandy, Blois, Flanders), but i think you are right in saying the French will be able to start pursuing the Low Countries and Italy much sooner. Given the French population at the time, that's quite a scary idea.
This could strengthen the position of Roussel De Balliol such that he’s able to install John Doukas as emperor, with himself as the first official Grand Domestikos. Johns great nephew constantine remains junior emperor and thus marries Helena, daughter of Robert Guiscard- she brings with her italo-norman troops that solidify the norman supremacy in Byzantium and help recover Anatolia east of roussel de balliols principality of ancyra. The doukas dynasty becomes culturally Norman/ the court of Constantinople becomes dominated by new Norman noble families which eventually replace the doukas.
It makes sense that many Normans might try their hand at a conquest of Greece. It might be a bit hard to make the Greeks swallow Catholicism, so I'm not sure there will be a thorough Norman takeover like in England. What I am seeing, however, is greater Norman presence in Eastern Rome causing more turmoil, in a vital time where Pechenegs and Seljuqs are looming over the Empire. Chances are, this will shave some centuries off the lifespan of the Byzantines.
 
I'm one of those people I suppose the OP mentions who focused on England itself in other recent threads, though I do think I said a fair amount about Europe in general and northwest Europe in particular as broad zones. It seems only logical that if the POD is the failure of the Hastings landing then we should be kind of Anglocentric in our gaming it out afterward since England itself is far and away the most drastically ATL place after all.

Leaving the most obvious stuff about England as given then...

I assume William failing to win in Kent probably means he himself is killed off along with a whole lot of the other Normans and Fleming lords he recruited, and thus Normandy and Flanders are in some chaos as an immediate knock on. I have not bothered to look up the contemporary King of France but I assume he was no Philip Augustus, but perhaps he would be immediately involved, attempting to weigh in on the hooraw in Normandy itself to try to tighten Paris's degree of control over the wayward duchy. If in fact the Bretons do seize opportunity to move in, that's another motive for any Parisian king to intervene because any territory Brittany captures is lost to France since Brittany I gather was not subordinated to Paris at all. The French king would thus be backing someone he hopes to have a stronger hold on than he had on William, but will accept only modest increases in control, or practically none at all, if it means the Bretons are held in check.

Vice versa--might not Harold of England come in to the mess himself? On one hand the English are exhausted, having fought off two major invasions in just a handful of weeks, so definitely not in 1066. Harold has got to consolidate his own control--but success against both Harald Hardarada and William the Bastard must be to his credit. Certainly the English have a major beef and score to settle with their trans-Channel neighbors who have treated them so badly; Denmark is after all farther off.

So English entanglement with the Continent might be a thing anyway, despite the lack of the very tight tie the Normans imposed OTL. Say the English decide to pony up some surplus force to ally with the Bretons (the English sure don't owe the King of France any favors either after all, nor the Holy Roman Emperor who was supposed to be the overlord of Flanders) with speculative agreements they can have pieces of Normandy and as much of Flanders as they can take on versus the Emperor--or even possibly in connivance with the Emperor, who might take the opportunity to engage with France on France's eastern and northern fronts while conceding the English some holdings on the mainland the better to get a stronger grip on Antwerp itself for instance.

Even if the English decide the smarter thing to do is remember their grievances but let things ride, as I said elsewhere, in the long run however much "purer" English Anglo-Saxon culture remains, it will evolve and in a manner that brings ties to the entire Continent in proportion to practical opportunity. I don't believe there is some sort of DNA based bias to tie the English northward to Scandinavia particularly; such ties are matters of opportunities that come up on both sides. Fundamentally, the Scandinavian north is peripheral and poor, albeit factors like controlling the strait into the Baltic can amount to quite a lot of wealth and revenue, which is why Denmark is pretty much guaranteed to dominate that sphere. Certainly there are pre-existing ties the Normans overwrote OTL, but they are as much negative as positive.

Broadly speaking, English opportunities and threats alike will come from south of Kent as much as north of it, and to the north the Low Countries are at least as important as Scandinavia. Meanwhile the center of High Middle Ages civilization in Western Europe is southward to the Mediterranean, Rome as center of Latin rite Catholicism, north Italy as the primary zone of incipient proto-capitalist manufacture and trade--the major overland branch of trade then runs far east through the Alps to the Rhine and Danube, but of course southern France is a major center as well. On the way to the Med by sea are the Iberian realms trying to oppose the generally divided realms of Muslim Andalusia. Nearer to hand, south of apparently politically potent but poor Brittany, are the same French domains that OTL anchored the Plantagenet empire--it is entirely possible various French lords will seek alliances piecemeal with the English, and the English, even if they shrewdly estimate the cost-effectiveness of aggressive conquest for the English crown on their own hook is rather poor, reciprocal relations with southwest French duchies and counties for both political and economic gain might suit them well. Certainly the crops of the French southwest Atlantic coast regions, such as Bordeaux wines, are reciprocal to what can be grown in England.

If England manages to fight off other opportunistic conquest attempts, as seems fairly likely, English people will still have a strong sheaf of interests drawing attention southward in Europe as much as northward. Whatever their relations with Flanders for instance, the straight east across the North Sea ties of developing industry there linking to England as wool producer and of other goods too I suppose will probably develop much the same, with the same effects and tensions.

What about the Crusades? A devotee of the Strong Butterfly would of course suppose everything is different in Europe a hundred years later, but I prefer to think of history as largely driven by deep currents and mere chaos as such is something we can disregard as much as we want to, being bound only to account for hard cause and effect knock ons. Messing up France in the decades after the ATL failed Conquest attempt would be largely damped down by the end of the century--a lot would be different in detail but perhaps the overall situation in France and Flanders (where most of the First Crusade came from) might be similar enough that the Pope's call for a volunteer armed pilgrimage to Jerusalem in aid of the recent alliance with the Eastern Emperor would be heeded much the same. If so, the lack of English involvement is not a deviation from OTL, whereas by the time a call for a Second Crusade rolls around, perhaps the English will participate much as the Plantagenets did OTL. Anyway, with or without English lords being involved, we can expect the Crusades to go largely as they did OTl, give or take random changes here and there.

England and English culture will evolve in lines fairly close to parallel to OTL overall I think, and by and large western Europe as well. The English language will remain more strongly Germanic but in fact the English showed a propensity to pick up words in their vocabularies pretty readily; this might have been a tendency much multiplied by their forced association with Norman overlords, but I think the language will come much closer to Middle English than one might guess even without that. They might lack a whole bunch of words common to OTL modern English but remarkably many of the more recently borrowed ones, the tendency to use Greek and Latin terms for prestige, along with whatever languages are fashionable in their day--Italian, and probably Parisian French, and Spanish, and eventually Native American and Asian words will be proliferating because that is the kind of things the old Anglo-Saxons were up to already in Alfred's day and generations before. The English will be looking for opportunity wherever they can find it and involving themselves, sometimes to their regret, in Continental affairs as they see fit, or perhaps as would-be foes impose on them from time to time. Thus overall their impact back on the Continent and world beyond will be broadly similar, and thus the overall development of Europe and the world will roll much as OTL, Conquest or not.

I personally would be sad to see some aspects of how England developed lost in a non-Conquest ATL, but by and large, especially with my assumption the broader strokes come out in the wash whether under Norman or Saxon management, I count Harold repelling William (and probably seeing him dead in a ditch at that, I hope) as a victory for basic decency anyway, and perhaps I have a softer spot in my heart for poor Harold than his real character might warrant--but I think of him as a good king bad things happened to, along with his people.

And with or without Norman ties, English people who are better off will still be wanting wines from places like Bordeaux, and exotic goods from the Mediterranean and beyond, and will be scheming to get them, by honest trade when they must, by the sorts of piracy that have comprised so much of English-speaking history when they think they can get away with it.
 
What could also happen is that the French manage to hold Egypt against the Molgols, less likely but possible. Portugal has the possibility of remaining part of Castile, with them losing without English support the war of 1383. And some other things.

If that even happens in the first place - the royal matches would probably be completely different in these circumstances (for example, Alfonso VIII will probaby have a completely different wife). For all we know, León might take longer to be united to Castille or even be united with Portugal instead...
 
I assume William failing to win in Kent probably means he himself is killed off along with a whole lot of the other Normans and Fleming lords he recruited, and thus Normandy and Flanders are in some chaos as an immediate knock on. I have not bothered to look up the contemporary King of France but I assume he was no Philip Augustus, but perhaps he would be immediately involved, attempting to weigh in on the hooraw in Normandy itself to try to tighten Paris's degree of control over the wayward duchy. If in fact the Bretons do seize opportunity to move in, that's another motive for any Parisian king to intervene because any territory Brittany captures is lost to France since Brittany I gather was not subordinated to Paris at all. The French king would thus be backing someone he hopes to have a stronger hold on than he had on William, but will accept only modest increases in control, or practically none at all, if it means the Bretons are held in check.
France would certainly try something. The French King was only 14 in 1066 though, still under the regency of his uncle Baldwin V of Flanders. I suppose Baldwin would agree to secure Normandy, although he did help William invade England OTL, which wasn't in the French King's interests.
Regarding Brittany, depending if Odo of Penthièvre's sons Brian, Alan Rufus and Alan the Black, who took part to the Conquest OTL survived, they would certainly support their cousin Conan in his invasion of Normandy.
 
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It makes sense that many Normans might try their hand at a conquest of Greece. It might be a bit hard to make the Greeks swallow Catholicism, so I'm not sure there will be a thorough Norman takeover like in England.
Most likely is that Catholicism remains an ethnic religion of the Normans in the first few generations, with Catholic bishops being sent over to minister to norman troops fighting in the eastern frontier- unlike orthodox bishops, Catholic ones have to actually be in their sees, meaning they’re likely be able to establish connections with the native orthodox population of eastern Anatolia. A parallel church hierarchy catering to Norman’s would emerge, causing some level of conflict but the emperor himself would remain solidly orthodox.

Things probably settle with the Norman’s after having firmly established themselves in the Roman political class then converting to orthodoxy in the manner of the visigothic conversion from Arianism to Catholicism, but this might not extend to the Normans of southern Italy- depends how integrated they become with the Normans of Constantinople.



Fundamentally, the Scandinavian north is peripheral and poor, albeit factors like controlling the strait into the Baltic can amount to quite a lot of wealth and revenue, which is why Denmark is pretty much guaranteed to dominate that sphere. Certainly there are pre-existing ties the Normans overwrote OTL, but they are as much negative as positive.
On the other hand, the same could be said of wales and ireland- I could imagine easily an atl where in the same way that we talk otl of England expanding into its peripheral poor Celtic fringe as a far more logical thing than continental holdings, in the atl they talk of England logically expanding into its North Sea fringe as far more logical than trying to contest things in France. I do agree that English kings might be interested in any opportunities that arise for French holdings, I just don’t think they’re super likely given how hotly contested the region is- Angevin holdings in France stemmed from their position as French nobles integrated in the French marital system in a way that Anglo Saxon England just isn’t. If the English are feeling powerful enough to try their hand at a non peripheral region, Flanders is where they’ll spring for, not Bordeaux.



If in fact the Bretons do seize opportunity to move in, that's another motive for any Parisian king to intervene because any territory Brittany captures is lost to France since Brittany I gather was not subordinated to Paris at all.
The allegiance Brittany owed Paris was not functionally any more or less than Normandy or Flanders in this period- if you’re strong enough to force their submission, they’re your vassals. Brittany is still a ducal title which inherently places them underneath the royal French umbrella. I do think Brittany and Flanders are the big winners for the moment, though who knows how long that’ll last.





The English language will remain more strongly Germanic but in fact the English showed a propensity to pick up words in their vocabularies pretty readily;
This is where I have to disagree quite strongly actually- old English showed a strong tendency to calque Latin terms rather than using the loan, and Latin loans tend to come from the proto-west Germanic period when they were still on the continent. Especially given old English’s status as the richest literary language (second to Latin) in Western Europe before the 1100s, I think not only is old English likely to remain both resistant to loans and much more morphologically conservative due to the artificial influence of the literary language, its also not unlikely to spread to Scandinavia in monastic/liturgical contexts.
 
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What a big post, I'll share some thoughts.
Certainly the English have a major beef and score to settle with their trans-Channel neighbors who have treated them so badly
I think an English retaliation is an interesting idea. I think this would take the form of the English sending out ships to pillage the Norman Coast, perhaps, in a twist of irony, until the Normans pay them to leave. But I think there's a non-zero chance they might see an advantage worth the cost in a friendly Duke and get properly involved.
I don't believe there is some sort of DNA based bias to tie the English northward to Scandinavia particularly
I think I agree that association with Scandinavia will decline, but rather slowly, may take until the 1300s before England is definitively over it's Scandinavian ties. Hell, some English sources were going on about the Danes coming back as late as the mid 1200s, even if such a threat didn't exist.
to the north the Low Countries are at least as important as Scandinavia.
I think that in such a timeline, most English interaction with the continent will come from the Low countries, especially Flanders which will develop the same important economic ties. To tie together the topic of Scandinavia and the Low Countries, in the 1080s the Danish and Flemish were allied and had planned to invade England together, which only didn't occur because Canute IV had bigger problems internally, like getting killed by rebels.
but I think the language will come much closer to Middle English than one might guess even without that.
Absolutely, the simplification of the English language that we see in Middle English was already under way way before the conquest, only that this process would be a bit slower and slightly less far-reaching due to the English retaining their own written standard and more association with Scandinavia and the Low Countries.

I think in general, England will be a "North Sea" country rather than a Western European country or a Northern European one. As you said later, there will always be ties to France, but I what's important in this ATL is that they won't be anything special, they have relations to France like how Germany and Iberia have them. This would leave the French mostly on their own and set France down a vastly different trajectory - perhaps, in the French mind, England is a place where people who have to flee France end up and occasionally gave minor aid to some political players in some conflict only remembered by those really into their medieval history.
 
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