The new Canaanites: a history of the Dutch-nation-in-exile

[reddie]

I had the idea of the forces of Spain finally solving their problem with the troublesome northern provinces by simply shipping off the rebellious Protestants and then trying to establish full hegemony over the Netherlands and Frisia via Catholic settlement. My first idea was to have the Spaniards expel the Dutch/Flemings into the remote parts of New Spain (in OTL, the sparsely-populated part of Mexico north of the Rio Grande), but that seemed too massive an undertaking for the mid-1500s.

But then I remembered an easier option: Capetown. Only problem was, Capetown wasn't founded for decades after the Dutch Republic was declared in 1588.

But I'll assume that somebody founded a town on the site of Capetown. A Portuguese colony we'll call Boa Esperança. Founded in 1488, Boa Esperança has never been particularly successful, mostly serving as a stop-over point for Portuguese traffic between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. It has been eclipsed by Portuguese ports farther east, one on the site of OTL's Durban and the other on the site of OTL's Beira, Mozambique. The city has been especially in decline since the Portuguese put down a rebellion of Angolan slaves that lasted from 1522-1533; by now they're willing to sell their Cape colony.

So, South Africa gets a much larger input of European colonists, and much earlier, with a 100,000 or so Protestants exiled there.

I refer to them as "the new Canaanites" because I see these people losing the "New Jerusalem"-type ideation of OTL's Calvinists, whether English or Dutch. The Calvanist Boers in OTL usually felt themselves "Chosen by God," but these people have just had their asses kicked and tossed out of their own country. They approach SA with a rather different mentality than the real-world Calvinist settlers did.

What happens?

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

How would 16th century ships carry thousands if not millions of people thousands of miles to another continent which Spain had little to no control over and even less interest in? I fail to see why they would do this and how they could. The Spanish Netherlands had a Protestant population of several million by the mid 16th century, and so how would Spanish galleons (who could hardly use the area around the Netherlands at the time because of English and Dutch harrassment) get there and then transport these millions of people to South Africa. Let alone the logistics of such an undertaking, the fact is that with disease and other maritime dangers, most of the people would have died in transit. Therefore, the Spanish have not only depopulated the Netherlands, but somehow committed genocide.

Technologically it's impossible and from a strategic standpoint it makes no sense. Those highly educated and very affluent Protestants were the people the Spanish wanted-they wanted the merchants and the commerce from the Netherlands because they'd pay lots of taxes. Why else do you think they'd want the sodden piece of bog? The place is strategically unimportant for the Spanish (it's not near any other their other areas of influence) and without those people you'd remove the land would be pretty much worthless.

 

[Valdemar II]

Honestly they wouldn't need to, they would only need to deport a few tens of thousand firebreathers, and the rest would fall in line. The problem are that they would need to conquer Netherlands first which they failed at in OTL, plus more likely if they conquered Holland, they would likely just slaugther a lot of Protestant out of hand, the rest would flee to around Europe.

Through the effect of that would be interesting too, Netherlands was a century to two ahead of the rest of Northen Europe in agricultural advances, it was in the forefront of craftmenship, the spread of a Dutch dispora of tens to hundred of thousands, could push a earlier agricultural revolution among the Protestant states of Northen Europe, while at the same time make room for a earlier and stronger urban industries among them too. The question are when it happens, if it happen in the late 16th century Denmark, the Hansetic League and England are likely the main ones whom benefit from it, while if it happen in the early 17th century, Brandenburg, Gottorp, Pfalz, Hessen and England are likely the main benefactors.

The effect are going to be interesting, a collapse or lack of the Dutch Republic would mean that someone else would need to take their position. We would likely see a competion between Denmark, the Hansetic League and Gottorp over taking their position as the main Baltic trading power, while England would likely end up taking the Dutch position in the Americas and Far East a century earlier. In the Baltic trade I lean to Denmark winning out, simply because it can military crush its competitors and it strategic position mean that it can cut them of from trade between the Baltic and North Sea, through Hamburgs pragmatism and good position may mean that it end up dominating the North Sea trade, especially because it was quite willing to let immigrant settle in their town, even if they didn't follow the True Faith (High Lutheranism). If Hamburg are also willing to expand into the Bishoprics of Bremen, Verden and Lübeck, it's in a good position to create a new mini-Netherlands.

 

[EMT]

Ignoring everything else, I think the East Indies may well still remain Portuguese. Anglo-Portuguese alliance, right?(If it means anything at all in this scenario).

 

[Janprimus]

Ignoring everything else, I think the East Indies may well still remain Portuguese. Anglo-Portuguese alliance, right?(If it means anything at all in this scenario).

It depends from 1581 king Philip II of Spain was also king Philip I of Portugal....

More general speaking a lot of Dutchmen (even including Flemish and Walloon) were still Catholic, in fact I'm a decendant from them (from the OTL Dutch part of Brabant (North Brabant)).
So the Netherlands would have remained Dutch, but it would have been a Catholic Netherlands, so like a larger Belgium or more specific Flanders. Probably less prosperous, but without the Republic places like Antwerp could develop further. IOTL the Republic hindered the development of the Southern Netherlands, something Belgium remembered... These united (Burgundian) Netherlands would have been less prosperous than the OTL Republic, but more prosperous than the OTL Spanish Netherlands.

 

[Valdemar II]

It depends from 1581 king Philip II of Spain was also king Philip I of Portugal....

More general speaking a lot of Dutchmen (even including Flemish and Wallon) were still Catholic, in fact I'm a decendant from them (from the OTL Dutch part of Brabant (North Brabant)).
So the Netherlands would have remained Dutch, but it would have been have been a Catholic Netherlands, so like a larger Belgium or more specific Flanders. Probably less prosperous, but without the Republic places like Antwerp could develop further. IOTL the Republic hindered the development of the Southern Netherlands, something Belgium remembered... These united (Burgundian) Netherlands would have been less prosperous than the OTL Republic, but more prosperous than the OTL Spanish Netherlands.

I agree, beside that we would likely see a weaker Holland, and a much stronger Brabant. Of course a interesting effect would be that in case of Spanish victory we would see a much greater centralisation of the Netherlands and a absolut state.

 

[Petete123123]

Well, but if we suppose that those 100.000 who go to Cape are the more hardcored calvinists, then I see it more possible.
Also, how much will their population be by 1800 and by 1900?

 

[Rakhasa]

There are two problems for even a small settlement.

First, we are talking of sixteen century Spain. Inquisition Spain; Protector of the Catholic Faith Spain. Heretic subjects do not get a nifty colony for themselves; they repent and return to the true faith or they die.

Second, the division of the colonies. Spain was not a kingdom, it was a Crown. The difference (in spanish) is than a crown is made of several kindoms. Portuguese and Catalan, for instance, did not have the rigth to colonize "Spanish" (actually Castillian) America, nor did they pay taxes for it. Africa belonged to Portugal, not Castille or Aragon, so king Philip would not exile the dutch to capetown.

It'd be better to settle for a self-exile of a few thousand after Spain finally wins -and it would fit the "woe, the Promised Land is Lost, but one day well return!" spirit you want to give the exiles.

As a plus, with that they would manage to keep an important percentage of the Dutch navy and commercial fleet (the ships used on the flight), wich would give the exiles some defense (and income) the first crucial years.

 

[Flame]

Well, but if we suppose that those 100.000 who go to Cape are the more hardcored calvinists, then I see it more possible.
Also, how much will their population be by 1800 and by 1900?

Well if say a 100,000 protestant/calvinist Dutchmen are exiled to South Africa, and the Spanish are able to transport them there unhindered, and most of them survive the journey over there, there would still be the problems of the lack of supplies from Europe, diseases and native raiding, all of which would again greatly diminish their numbers, leaving maybe 20,000 (correct me if I'm wrong). And if those 20,000 somehow are able to get a stable food supply and are able to build houses and such, they could probably reach a few million in 300 years.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Given the tiny Boer population as late as the 19th Century it becomes clear that there simply was no appeal among large numbers of people to move to that location at any point between first discovery in the late 15th Century and the takeover by the British during the Napoleonic Wars.


Neither would South Africa be capable of maintaining a navy and merchant marine remotely on the scale of what Holland had. We're talking perhaps all of ten thousand people by the mid-18th Century, well after this POD.


In comparison the American colonies expansion was supported by the United Kingdom consistently and, despite substantial numbers of immigrants and a birthrate which soon astounded Europe, it took nearly a century to reach a quarter of million in population.

 

[Max Sinister]

In Gurps Alternate Earths 2, there's a TL where England becomes Catholic again (no Glorious Revolution), and France conquers the Netherlands, so many Calvinists emigrate to South Africa, which thus gets a bigger white population and extends further north. (Not sure whether this makes sense, after all the African diseases made settling further north difficult.)