The most unlikely war of all: USA versus....Israel?

[reddie]

This is potentially the sort of thing that could kick off such a war, though still highly unlikely (it worked for the Spanish-American war, anyway):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

Assuming this happened in the 60s, what would American-Middle East relations look like these days? I think a US-Israeli war would send history spiralling into god only knows what direction. How the heck would the USSR deal with this?

 

[Cherico]

it would have been the greatist mistake of Isriali history
they would have to wed themselves firmly to the soviet union to
survive after a stunt like that.
The good news is that the islamic world will like us a whole lot more.

 

[reddie]

it would have been the greatist mistake of Isriali history
they would have to wed themselves firmly to the soviet union to
survive after a stunt like that.
The good news is that the islamic world will like us a whole lot more.

A hardcore Socialist Israel?

Wow. That would still make Israel a flash point for war, and potentially a big one: USSR-USA.

I think it's easy to assume in such a scenario that the Shah is not going to be deposed in Iran, and that Saddam Hussein is going to remain our "friend" for quite a while...

 

[Alcuin]

This is what happened. As the Wiki said, the USA insisted it had no ships in the area. Israel is perfectly entitled to assume that the USS Liberty was not an American ship (since the Americans had said they had no ships in the area) and to attack it, as they had said they would try to sink any unidentified ships.

Once it becomes clear, Israel can apologise (as they did in OTL) and pay reparations.

I find it hard to make this a casus belli without an earlier PoD.

I also believe that, if American-Israeli relations had broken down as a result of this, Israel would be more likely to side with Yugoslavia than the Soviet Union. Certainly we could have seen a socialist Israel but not a hardcore member of the Soviet bloc. There was too much History there.

 

[Sheltie]

This is potentially the sort of thing that could kick off such a war, though still highly unlikely (it worked for the Spanish-American war, anyway):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

Assuming this happened in the 60s, what would American-Middle East relations look like these days? I think a US-Israeli war would send history spiralling into god only knows what direction. How the heck would the USSR deal with this?

Youre forgetting one important thing: Public support. With the Span Am war Hearst had riled up Americans enough that the war was seen as necessary.

 

[Riain]

Just as a matter of interest, the US often uses Israel as the opponent/target in it's deployment/invasion wargames for the Middle East. The reasoning being that if they can beat the first class opponent/target in the region they can beat all comers.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

This was a joke in the 1970s when Israel's economy was in exceptionally poor shape, that they should declare war on the US and the US would then rebuild the economy a la Japan and West Germany. Then someone asks what happens if Israel wins...

 

[freivolk]

I mean I read somewhere, that Eisenhower was so pissed of by the Attak from Israel against Egypt in 1956 that he actually though about a military intervention. Propably without the presidental election, he would act this way. So maybe let the Suez-Crisis happen some time later.

 

[Alcuin]

This was a joke in the 1970s when Israel's economy was in exceptionally poor shape, that they should declare war on the US and the US would then rebuild the economy a la Japan and West Germany. Then someone asks what happens if Israel wins...

Same as in The Mouse That Roared when the Duchy of Grand Fenwick defeated the United States.

 

[David S Poepoe]

This is what happened. As the Wiki said, the USA insisted it had no ships in the area. Israel is perfectly entitled to assume that the USS Liberty was not an American ship (since the Americans had said they had no ships in the area) and to attack it, as they had said they would try to sink any unidentified ships.

Once it becomes clear, Israel can apologise (as they did in OTL) and pay reparations.

I find it hard to make this a casus belli without an earlier PoD.

I think a good punishment would have been to have sunk two of there warships, if they had them. A Superpower can't have any minor powers getting swell heads. A regular 'butcher and bugger' sort of campaign would have taught Israel a lesson or two.

 

[Bill Cameron]

An actual declared war is tough. Despite all the combat it's forces have been involved in, the US hasn't officially declared war WW2. Having the US and Israel shooting at each other is something far easier to manage.

There's the Liberty Incident mentioned previously. Give that vessel a CAP from a nearby carrier and you'll have USN and Israeli planes tangling with each other. Another potential flash point could the 1956 Suez Crisis.

Israel tried to grab the Sinai during the Crisis and was forced by political means to withdraw. Egypt had been up to that old Arab trick of arming and training feyhadeen in Gaza then looking the other way and proclaiming innocence when they raided into Israel. Naturally, after grabbing the Sinai, Israel wasn't going to simply hand it back over to Egypt without any strings attached. There were going to have to be peacekeepers to (hopefully) stop the raids from beginning again.

Just who would be the peacekeepers was another problem. Egypt obviously didn't want Britain or France involved. Israel didn't want the US in there (It's 1956 remember, current US-Israeli relations have their begnning after 1967) and didn't want the USSR or anyone from that Bloc in the region either. Some Canadian statesman - whose name I sadly cannot remember - came up with the solution and invented peacekeeping as we know it today.

He suggested that troops from nations who "didn't have a dog in the fight" should be used and that the UN would have command of them. Accordingly, troops from various nations who were fortunate enough not to care less about the issues swirling around the crisis were brought in and Israel withdrew.

Instead of the OTL solution, what if US troops were among those brought in to monitor Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai and what if someone got frisky? We could have firefights between US and Israeli troops while the guns and planes of the 1956 USN add to the fun.


Bill

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Bill, the scenario doesn't work simply because peacekeepers won't be sent until after Israel has agreed to withdraw and the Israelis aren't likely to get frisky over soil they are already leaving.


freivolk, wouldn't that also require threatening war with France and the UK(Israel's partners)? As it is Eisenhower completely screwed the crisis, after his useless Secretary of State actually caused the whole affair, so further mistakes might not be unreasonable.


David, I doubt too many outside Israel would be impressed by sinking one or two of Israel's antique destroyers which, ironically, were due to be scrapped once the Sa'ar class missle boats entered service.

Of course, when the US, to avoid bad feelings with our new anti-Soviet ally, is forced to pay for another squadron of missle boats or some such and very quietly slip reparations to the families of any Israelis killed...

 

[Bill Cameron]

Bill, the scenario doesn't work simply because peacekeepers won't be sent until after Israel has agreed to withdraw and the Israelis aren't likely to get frisky over soil they are already leaving.

Grimm,

Israel may have agreed to wirthdraw, but they hadn't yet done so and wouldn't complete their withdrawal for over four months. This is the bit from Wiki about the activities of the United Nations Emergencey Force which was specifically created for peacekeeping the Suez Crisis. (Granted it's Wiki but it does jibe with what I remember reading from other sources.)

The mission was directed to accomplish its mission in four phases:

- In November and December of 1956, the force facilitated the orderly transition in the Suez Canal area when British and French forces left.

- From December of 1956 to March of 1957, the force facilitated the separation of Israeli and Egyptian forces and the Israeli evacuation from all areas captured during the war, except Gaza and Sharm-el-Sheik.

- In March of 1957, the force facilitated the departure of Israeli forces from Gaza and Sharm-el-Sheik.

- Deployment along the borders for purposes of observation. This phase ended in May of 1967.


It seems the OTL peacekeepers over a period of four months first separated Israeli and Egyptian forces in the Sinai, then assisted with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from nearly all of the Sinai, and then finally helped Israeli forces evacuate the two remaining parts of the Sinai they still held.

Four months is plenty of time for an Israeli force to get 'frisky' with US troops in an ATL peacekeeping mission. How about Israelis chasing Gaza feyhadeen while the evacuation there was on hold and bumping into US troops instead?

As I wrote initially, an actual war would be tough to pull off. A shooting incident that escalates for a day or two - especially in the 1950s before sat-comms put the President at the shoulder of every US commander down to 2nd Lt. - might be easier to manage.


Bill