The most likely time for a post WWII military coup in a Western country?

[ennobee]

If you disregard the situation in the states of the Warsaw Pact, and also the Franco-dictatorship in Spain (as it started before WWII), the only time a Western country had its government overthrown by the military was the 'Rule of the Generals' in Greece from 1967 to 1974. Still, popular culture and also a good deal of threads in this forum believe that a good deal of Western countries at one time or another were pretty close to a military takeover.

So disregarding what Alien space Bats would have to flap their wings in order for a military coup to succeed, I am looking for the period in time in which the most of people would think: "If tomorrow the military would step in and place this country under martial law, I do not think I would resist. It can't be worse then the mess we're in now". Again, the coup would not have to succeed. It even does not have to happen at all. I am only interested at what time a western country, any western country, would be at the highest risk (or more neutral, the highest probability) for the military to step in and take over.

So what would it be? The anti-war protests of the late 60's, early 70's? The crack, crime and AIDS crisis of the 80's? The financial meltdown of 2008? or the Communist scares of the early 50's?

Also, I made the poll fit explicitly for any and all Western countries because the main historical and cultural events tended to affect all of the Western sphere, albeit sometimes in different forms. The economic downturn of the 1970's and the 1980's capitalist counter-reformation happened in the US as well as Western Europe and at the same time Martin Luther King marched on Washington, German students marched to expose the NAZI pasts of their professors.

I will post my own ideas later on. For now let me hear yours.

 

[Blurgle]

Why is there no option for "absolutely never", surely the overwhelmingly most likely answer?

 

[Download]

In real life some parts of the French Foreign Legion and the French Army tried to coup in 1962 or 1963 (I think). Then would have been the best time for a potential coup.

 

[ennobee]

Why is there no option for "absolutely never", surely the overwhelmingly most likely answer?

Because even if there would never be a real chance for a military coup, there were times in which it was more likely then others and other times in which it was less. Even if the real chances would always be between zero point one and zero point zero zero five, 'Absolutely never' wold imply that every time had exactly the same chance of 'zero'.

 

[Sam R.]

*cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_de_Gaulle#1958:_Collapse_of_the_Fourth_Republic
*cough*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_de_Gaulle#May_1968
*cough*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution

I'd say, as historically, 1958, 1968 and 1974.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

I voted 1958, which IIRC was when France went from 4th to 5th Republic, and ask what his position with the Army was, becasue it seems like since he was called on there it would have been a pretty logical time if he went in as military leder. Of coruse, I don't know a lot of the details, just sketchy parts from reading almanacs when younger that I recall.

 

[Plumber]

Belgium in 1950 is also a good candidate. I could see Nixon or Reagan supporting an Italian Pinochet if the communists had won an election.

 

[ennobee]

Belgium in 1950 is also a good candidate. I could see Nixon or Reagan supporting an Italian Pinochet if the communists had won an election.

I was thinking about the fifties in Belgium too, more particularly about the period of 1950-1951-1952 where the country was constantly ln the brink of anarchy over the question about what to do with king Leopold III after some controversial choices he made during the war. However I thought the 1968 period just as likely as the protests had a strong Flanders -against-Walonia component to it, so a military takeover to preserve 'the unity' was a bit less impossible then on other times. Also, although Belgium has an army of draftees, it also has a strong core of professional soldiers, many of them with their desire to serve passed on from father to son. Also, like France, the regular police only has jurisdiction inside their own city. All national policing was done by the 'gendarmerie' which was considered a branch of the military, and a very self-contained one on top. In fact I can see a coup starting in the Gendarme forces more easily then in the regular army.

Overall however I think the early-to-mid sixties were the time where a military coup had the biggest chance. For all its anarchy, the events of 1968 proved that people were willing to take to the streets for their rights and were not afraid of the police or military. After 1968 every military would know that a powergrab would lead to massive protest that would not be easy to subdue. Before 1968 though, there were unrests and conflicts as well, and with every year WWII was farther awaw, people tended to forget more and more about the horrors of military occupation, especially when compared to the chaos going on right before their noses.