@Mayukh raised some concerns about China and Asia, so I might as well make a map to show how the Spanish are doing there.
The Jaguar's Roar - An Aztec Timeline
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tbf you can have the danes take it away from the hands of the portugese especially if the danish and french fight the portugese at the same time, straining their resources, and the fleet sizes and the ppl involved in those battles are very small otl, so it wouldn't matter as much.
I could see an expulsion of Portuguese settlers in Acadia much like how the french were expelled from acadia in otl.
Oh wow, actual Spanish influence in the East Indies? Interesting and I never seen it done before, plus having a Spanish Indonesia sounds fascinating.
tbf having a spanish sulawesi and papua new guinea and another power that rules from Java to Malaya for example would be fun, with borneo being split between the two powers. Or a single power controlling all of borneo. SEA borders are quite malleable tbf because they were just wholesale colonised, and largely depends on the european players at the end (19th century).
It's probably ASB, but I wanna see a surviving New Courland.
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It was "very" technically, considering that became the name of the Hydrographic Basin
Don't the Portuguese have exactly the same problem ITL? With the loss of Brazil occurring due to how far apart the Portuguese Empire is. They have territory from North America to China. Not only that, but Spain has more than 7 times the population of Portugal. As a whole, Portugal treated the new world until the discovery of gold with a certain lack of interest, in the 16th century at otl there were 45 thousand for the new world. If the number were the same (which I think is unlikely) each colony would receive about 22,000 (if immigration is divided equally). Portugal unfortunately in my opinion does not have the strength (or numbers) to colonize two colonies at the same time. The big factor was that Portugal had a single colony that concentrated all immigration to the new world. (Even so, in 1700 the population of the colony had 300 thousand, exploding only with the gold fever)
The spanish really got lucky with the fact that the philippines are a stronghole of catholicism in asia. If they treat the Filipinos well, they will have the manpower to secure the Indonesian region without having to send too many people to Asia. Unlike the Dutch, the Spanish will treat Muslims in Indonesia badly for sure. But assuming they are excluded from the bureaucracy, army/navy and part of commerce they will be too weak to do anything. With the seats mostly held by Filipinos and the highest posts mostly held by Spaniards. They already have a port in China and are colonizing Taiwan (which will probably have more Filipinos than Spaniards). Filipino Knights in Crusades against Islam in Indonesia.
ok that made me laugh. as a whole north america can look like europe with diverse peoples and religions fighting for control. Danish, Spanish, Portuguese, natives and anyone else entering the region. (Scotland or England maybe).
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The River Plate and New England are both malaria-free regions, which allows for big population growth by insane birth rates. A good comparison would be New France, as for Portugal losing either of its colonies, it could happen but it's not that likely. Differently from New France, there isn't just one big power (England) in the Eastern Seaboard, there are two other colonies that will come into conflict with each other (Denmark and Spain, with the Danish core in OTL NYC being closer to Spanish Ajacan than to Terra Nova).
For South America, losing the basin of the Prata river would be terrible for the economy of Portugal, and I see no reason why the country wouldn't fight tooth and nail to keep this region under their control.
I know we are all getting hyped for how the alternate colonization of America goes, but I personally just hope we see some of the Native nations of North America survive. The 5 civilized tribes, the various Plains Confederations, maybe the Cree or Sioux go full Ghenghis Khan and form a massive steppe empire in the central USA with the introduction of horses and guns.
The Portuguese already had the Inquisition in Goa, so it's not too farfetched the idea of the even more zealots Spaniards basically making Indonesia catholic by the way of the sword, especially as conversion will be seen as a way of social advancement, not only that but the fact the Spanish managed to defeat and conquer the Sultanate of Manguindanao means their hold in the Philippines will be much more secure and basically be a forward base towards subjugating the whole of the very rich and valuable East Indies
This is a possibility if Denmark doesn't fall into decay like OTL. We may also have several small colonies in North America
Yes, Spanish Indonesia is a first for me. very different and unique
The Baltic kingdom?
New England yes, The Plata River region has problems that make it difficult for the population to explode. The pampas itself is wonderful for agricultural production, the rest is ok (most of the Argentine OTL is desert). If the lack of malaria and good terrain were the main factors, Argentina would have maintained its population advantage over Brazil and not lost it as it happened. Argentina in 1800 had 500 thousand, Brazil had 3.6 million (for comparison the USA had a smaller population in 1700, +-250 thousand. But it surpassed Brazil in 1800, more than 5 million). First, because there was more than a century of war before the natives lost (the Spanish would win anyway, and the Portuguese would theoretically win if left alone. Nobody wants to immigrate to a war zone.), second, it's a long way off ( ridiculously far) with closer options (such as the colony in north america), third the population explosion that occurs in north america does not occur in argentina even in otl the region is much safer and receives more immigrants (than portugal ever could assure). The pampas region is a complement of an empire but by itself it cannot flourish, the Argentines flourish being part of the British Empire. Argentinean population growth occurs with mass immigration in the 19th and 20th centuries (the region is friendly to Europeans, but does not show the characteristic of population explosion seen in the USA)
It wouldn't be, because there's no trade with the Incas, in the long run Portugal will exchang things for silver. But the meat of the Portuguese economy came from India and China, with Portugal only focusing on America with gold from Brazil. Silver will be a good incentive, but not something to die fighting for (gold is worth it, silver not so much despite being quite valuable). Trade with the Incas was going to be a complement to the Portuguese economy (nothing like simply putting a one-fifth tax on gold production and watching the coffers fill up). If portugal fight tooth and nail to keep this region they have a great chance of going bankrupt, what allowed portugal to function in the 17th and 18th century in particular (after losing the colonies in asia) was the ridiculous amount of easy money that the colony brought .
Portugal will have to play with much more care than in the OTL, they are much weaker (they won't have the magic of gold and sugar to boost/fix the economy) and the neighbors who are stronger are hungrier (for example, Spain doesn't it has gold and is expanding rapidly in indonesia where portugal has important ports like the straits of malacca). Portugal, if it does not make the right choices, has the chance of having its empire torn apart (not to mention the great chance of falling into a union with Spain due to how consanguineous the Portuguese family is. After all, the Habsburgs got into the habit of marrying cousins through of the influence of the Iberians). I really like portuguese wanks but while the situation looks good on the map overall it's way, way worse for them than on the OTL. TTL portugal is currently a medium sized fish in a pond with two very voracious big fish at the moment. This without having the possibility of more fish entering the lake.
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I've been campaigning for months to have a native khaganate (the one I think is more dangerous would be the Iroquois)
recently converted peoples are more zealous, that's why I think the philipinos will be the meat of this Spanish expansion in Indonesia. Since they are going to be the majority of the army and navy in Asia.
Yes. The island of Tobago was briefly colonized by Courland in the 1600's. Extremely unlikely for it to have survived IOTL, and - re-checking its history - I see that the POD makes it even unlikelier for it to have occurred ITTL at all. ah, well.
Tbf I'd think Portugal would want the silver to trade with China because China did like their silver. I can also see Portugal expanding to Rio re Janeiro for the gold there.
Tbf in the short term Portugal's population size really isn't that big of a deal, rather it is the amount of ships and population growth in the river plate probably was stifled due to Spanish colonisation policies, which could be averted if the Portuguese had a different policy on colonisation. Also in scenarios where Portuguese north America is taken and it's ppl banished I could see them settling in the south American colony and boosting the size of the colony while the river plate colony continues to grow. I also don't think being a warzone is that big of a deal, the US was colonised while native states tried to destroy them.
I do agree that Portugal would either lose the Acadian or the river plate colony tho, they are spread too thin to continue doing something like this.
Yeah definitely, especially if they become less and less interested in German politics and focus on holding their island pocessions and creating a great navy.
yeah tbf portugese canada is a fun prospect indeed.
so we'd get french plate antarctique then? still a fun prospect, and a combo between brazil and argentina is horrifying.
Maybe it falls into a union with some stronger country like denmark and sweden. They will have more chance to succeed
Yes china was a silver addicted goblin until very recently.
The region is already controlled by France (which in itself does not mean that it is not conquerable), but the problem is that it is a hugenot colony. Being the region that France will dump its Protestants (or at least a good part of it). If Portugal wants to conquer the region, it has to do it within 10 years. After that the region will be flooded with Protestants (hundreds of thousands in the first decades if expulsion/exile occurs). France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion (a very violent war). The amount of Protestants in France was very large, about 10% (or +- 2 million, pre religious war). I don't know if all these people would go to Brazil, but given the opportunity, I think that a part (something around 30% to 50% of the 2M) would go to the colony over decades. With Protestants being a large minority in the colony in the longo run.
With the French central government using banishment to the colony as a way to remove troublesome nobles (or anyone) from the nation (be they Catholic or Protestant). I think the first nobles to feel this new form of punishment will be the Hugenot nobles who were against the centralization of the realm, so the colony will have an aristocracy from an early age. In addition, the king can use the carrot and stick tactic. While they are being expelled from the metropolis they could leave with most of the monetary wealth (excepting of course a slight tax for the royal house something around 10%) in the colony were they could practice their religion without persecution in addition to being able to make a lot of money more than they can imagine. With production of things like sugar, cattle, drugs from the Sertão, brazilwood, precious minerals (like gold and diamonds) and if they conquer the pampas (a high production of grains like wheat and a bigger boom in livestock)
Not only that how the king can allow them to participate in the merchant marine in the colony, in building infrastructure (probably using slaves) and in the production of ships. In OTL during the 16th century In Colonial Brazil, the bad economic situation of Portugal, allied to the lack of interest in the application of resources for the development of a colony that did not seem to provide the imagined financial return, led to a very precarious system of land routes. Connections between captaincies were made by sea, in long and dangerous journeys, using a wide range of vessels. Much because of this factor, the captaincies developed around seaports. Despite this, not even this single transport solution received large investments from the Crown for its expansion. Portugal only directed resources towards fortification works, against invaders. I don't think France will do it, So the colony will probably have better land paths. The first European-type vessels were built in Rio de Janeiro in 1531. Over time, small shipyards were built on the edge of Guanabara Bay. Coastal and aquatic trade was carried out through the following vessels: brigantines, galleys, faluas, alvarengas, sloops, barges and canoes. In the 17th century, Brazil would have built the largest ship in the world, according to reports in the Portuguese newspaper Mercúrio Português. Salvador Correia de Sá e Benevides had the galleon Padre Eterno built at the tip of Ilha do Governador (still in Guanabara Bay). The construction of large ships in Rio was consolidated with a frigate factory, managed by Sebastião Lamberto. So the colony has great potential as a secondary shipyard for France
I don't because in OTL the Portuguese colony was used from the rest of South America and when it came into contact with other colonies, the population was already large enough to protect itself from invaders (as in the expulsion of the Dutch by the colonists). Both Portuguese colonies will have friction from the beginning and as they are very far from each other they cannot help each other which forces the metropolis to focus on one of the two. So whichever Metropolis chooses will survive.
This demands a change in Portuguese colonization in the 16th century because, for all of Spain's shortcomings in setting up and organizing colonies, it was better than how Portugal organized the colony in that century. The Portuguese crown didn't want to spend money investing in the colonies in the Americas so they werre kind of drifted and survived on their own merits.
Yes, there can be only one.
Dermark rules of waves?
That's why I think the colony in North America will survive and the one in South America will have problems in the long run. The best thing for Portugal is to have a colony in America, being able to focus on one thing on that continent.
There's even a flag:
Yes it will be a nation of weight in the long term. But France will be the metropolis, which makes independence difficult. If France is smart, the colony becomes a domain. France with the resources of Brazil and Argentina is a beast. France was the richest and strongest nation in Europe until basically after Napoleon. I don't know how stronger this france is, but it's going to be the richest nation in europe by a good margin.
Considering how the French have all but expelled the Spanish from the peninsula, will get income from Brazil in the form of sugar (and later) and gold and will avoid the Religious Wars, it'll be the most powerful country in Europe, especially given their Habsburg rivals won't be able to count on the gold of Mexico and Peru and will have to make do with what they have
a bigger Denmark would be cool, but considering the Portugese seem to take Canada I hope the Portugese conquer New Scania because a bigger Portugese Canada would be good for the colony. Denmark holdng Sri Lanka and mucking about in SEA would be fun too. I want Portugese Canada to rule the Great Lakes with a mix between a Portugese and Iroquois population.
Exactly.
tbf I could definitely see the Huegenots successfully getting the French off their backs if they have a good leader really, especially if the European powers like England and other colonising powers try to kick the french out especially after France conquers the Plate colony from the Portugese. It really depends on what the author wants, and I could see the Huguenots making their own nation out of argentina and southern Brazil, with the French still controlling Northern Brazil.
French Southern Cross flag here we come lmao.
the flag is a bit weird as I don't think they'd use maple syrup the same way as otl, but defo something would work out.
I could see everyone just stop fighting each other to kick t france and trying to get their colony to split off from france so the other european nations could have a crack at the market of the huguenot colony.
On other things I'm really interested in how the tawantinsuyu would evolve. Considering they would be quite isolated from the other nations I could see them being a nation that can evolve to deal with the European nations. Maybe they get allies in the English and other powers?