Indeed, France will be able to play nice with the other Italian states(especially it's allies Naples and Venice) and play the role of good Christian kings by sending money and troops to help the anti Ottoman coalitions out.
How kind of the French to help against the Ottomans, they are truly protectors of the Italians.It's a great deal for the French, it's cheaper than going to war with the Ottomans and it uses a lot less manpower. Not only that but it can also be used as a card with the Austrians. Promising help against the Ottomans (being able to play the good Christian king) and at the same time trying to expand into the hre.
This is bad news for Charles V because the French are going to be focusing on conquering the Burgundian Inheritance and without the drains from constant Italian wars and the lack of gold and silver from the New World, Charles is gonna be facing a Sisyphean task to keep them from taking over the place.
Yes, the chronic lack of money will only increase with more wars with France. This lack of money will make the Spaniards focus on new forms of production to increase revenue. The first is to increase sugar production in the Atlantic islands, but I think this will encourage the Spanish to massively produce sugarcane in the Caribbean to try to balance the accounts. They already have experience since beginning of the 15th century the Spanish and Portuguese began production of sugar in earnest in the Madeira, Azores (1439), the Cape Verde Islands (1462), and São Tomé and Principe (1486) using slaves (mostly bought from the kingdom of Kongo). So the Caribbean sugar boom will start sooner. In addition, they have the unique opportunity to save the Aztecs and ask for gold and silver in exchange for protection (probably in addition to helping the Aztec empire expand).Besides that, there is also a colony in the Philippines to trade with China. Besides maybe starting to expand in indonesia to try to get more access to spices.
The Austrians, on the other hand, will have a lot of trouble generating resources, so probably, as you said, they will depend more on HRE. Perhaps the Austrians will change their capital to Prague with an almost absolute focus on the Holy Empire or do the opposite and concentrate their efforts on having greater control of Bohemia and Hungary. Basically doing something like the austro hungarian empire earlier.
The French just took control of Brazil in 1532. Unlike the Portuguese, the colony will probably not have the hereditary captaincies that were created in 1534. In otl the captaincies failed, this failure can be explained by a combination of factors, such as the administrative inexperience of many grantees ( did not have a central government), the lack of internal communication and the difficulty of communicating with Portugal, the scarcity of resources to promote the development of the captaincies, conflicts with the indigenous people, among other things. The Portuguese Crown then realized that it was necessary to centralize power in the Colony. For this, was created the General Government, a centralized system in which the General Governor had authority and power over the entire Colony.Knowing the French, the colony began with a central power but with several private expeditions such as Blancard's to extract Brazilwood and other tropical products. In about 10 years the french will start producing sugar and then we will basically have the french and spanish producing all the sugar in the world,
He'll probably split his realm earlier, giving the German parts to his brother and Spain to his son as to better focus on them, which means that we'll see a Austria looking at the HRE instead of the Ottomans
yes that means problems for the rest of europe, because if austria manages to make the HRE functional the country will be very, very powerful. I think maybe Hungary will in the long run have another Habsburg king being separated from the Austrian Habsburg empire, serving as a buffer state between the Ottomans and Austrians. Thus having three separade Habsburg kingdoms: Spain, Austria and Hungary.
