The Future Kaiser Wilhelm II Dies Young

[MagicalRabbit]

What if the future Kaiser Wilhelm II dies young, say between 1870 and 1880 (due to some illness/disease, a very severe fall down the stairs, or something else)?

Obviously this would mean that Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich would become Kaiser in 1888; that said, how exactly would Heinrich's rule have been different than Wilhelm's?

My educated guess would be that, without a withered arm and an insecurity complex, Heinrich would do a better job of governing than Wilhelm. To elaborate, Bismarck might or might not eventually still get fired (Bismarck's behavior during the anti-socialist bill fiasco actually was a decent reason to fire him), I doubt that Heinrich would have done that much to advance democracy and constitutionalism in Germany due to the opposition of the Prussian military and Junkers, and I doubt that Heinrich would have agreed to increase the size of the German Navy to the extent that Wilhelm did. In regards to foreign policy, I would think that Heinrich would have tried harder to maintain friendly relations with Russia (by renewing the Reinsurance Treaty, et cetera) and with Britain (again, by not building up Germany's navy, by not behaving aggressively in foreign affairs, et cetera). German-French relations are probably still strained due to Alsace-Lorraine (any attempts by Heinrich to resolve this problem would have probably been blocked by the German military).

Anyway, in this scenario, I think that there would have been different alliance combinations in comparison to real life. In fact, once Russia's power begins increasing more and more, I could see Heinrich creating alliances between Germany and Britain, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan in an attempt to control and encircle Russia. World War I might or might not eventually occur in this scenario; however, with the rise of Russian power, if World War I does not already occur, then I could see World War I breaking out in the late 1920s or 1930s after Germany realizes that it needs a war to break out soon in order to defeat and weaken Russia and after Germany exploits a foreign crisis to cause war to break out (in fact, this is what actually occurred in real life in 1914, though with a more favorable alliance system for Germany, I think that the "point of no return" for Germany would have been much later in this scenario).

Thoughts on this?

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Also, as a side note, if Heinrich (in this scenario, Kaiser Heinrich (the First)) still marries Princess Irene, then there is a possibility that his eldest son would be a hemophiliac, which might create problems if Heinrich does not manage to successfully change the succession law(s) to the German throne.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

For what it's worth, though, I could imagine some World War I scenarios in the 1910s in this timeline as well (especially if Kaiser Heinrich (the First) doesn't secure an Anglo-German alliance yet). For instance:

Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph passes away in 1917. When the Ausgleich comes up for renewal that same year, Franz Ferdinand's anti-Hungarian views cause the Hungarians to oppose a renewal of the Ausgleich and to try seceding from Austria-Hungary instead. The Hungarians appeal to Russia for military assistance. After getting France's approval for sparking a general European war and after becoming convinced that Britain will remain neutral in this scenario's World War I, Russia agrees to militarily intervene on the side of the Hungarians. In turn, this causes Germany to declare war on Russia and France to declare war on Germany. Britain, Italy, Romania, and Japan initially remain neutral in this scenario's World War I while Serbia and Montenegro join this war on the Franco-Russian side and while the Ottoman Empire joins the war on the German side.

At the start of this scenario's World War I, the Russians (and their Serbo-Montenegrin allies) make significant advances in Galicia and in Hungary. Meanwhile, Germany successfully repulses a French invasion of Alsace-Lorraine and Russian invasions of East Prussia and Silesia. After its humiliating defeat in (this scenario's) Battle of the Frontiers, France regroups and bides its time before launching any new offensives against Germany in Europe. However, France does launch some successful invasions of German Togo(land) and of German Kamerun (Cameroon). Meanwhile, back on the Eastern Front, German and Austrian forces are able to inflict a crushing defeat on the Russians and Hungarians at Budapest and slowly begin advancing on the Eastern Front. After a year or two of combat fighting, Germany and Austria successfully clear the Russians (and their Serbo-Montenegrin allies) out of all of Hungary and also proceed to fully occupy Serbia and Montenegro. Afterwards, Germany and Austria are able to convince Romania to enter World War I on their side. Meanwhile, France launches another major offensive in Alsace-Lorraine after a year or two of preparations. The German forces there are initially caught off-guard and are pushed back into the Saar(land). However, German reinforcements from the East allow the German forces in the West to push the French back into France and to advance into French Lorraine up to the French border forts, which the Germans refuse to try taking (at least for the time being). Afterwards, Germany resumes its focus on the East and launches a massive offensive which allows Germany and Austria to recapture Galicia and to capture Poland, Lithuania, and all of Latvia up to Riga.

At this point in time, large-scale riots and demonstrations break out in Russia. Eventually, these large-scale riots and demonstrations turn into a full-blown revolution which results in Russian Tsar Nicholas II getting overthrown and in Russia becoming a republic. Shortly afterwards, Japan enters this scenario's World War I on the Austro-German side (and quickly captures northern Sakhalin) while Russia and France both quickly sue for peace. However, this Russian Revolution strengthens the hawks in Germany and allows them to gain Kaiser Heinrich's ear. Anyway, Kaiser Heinrich responds to the Russo-French peace feelers by presenting his own peace plan:

-Austria-Hungary's pre-World War I borders will be restored and Austria-Hungary will be allowed to annex both Serbia and Montenegro.
-Germany will acquire (as puppet states) Poland, all of the Baltic states, and Finland from Russia.
-Romania will acquire Bessarabia and Bukovina from Russia.
-The Ottoman Empire will acquire oil-rich Azerbaijan from Russia.
-Japan will acquire both northern Sakhalin and the Kamchatka Peninsula from Russia.
-Germany will acquire all of French Lorraine (including resource-rich Briey and Longwy) and the city of Belfort from France.
-France will withdraw from German Togo(land) and from German Kamerun (Cameroon) but be allowed to keep all of its pre-World War I colonies.
-France and Russia will pay some reparations to Germany and have some limits on the sides of their militaries.
-France will demolish all of the border fortresses near its eastern border.
-The Franco-Russian Alliance will be cancelled.

While both Russia and France initially reject this German peace plan, they change their mind after a new German offensive in the East results in a German capture of Riga, Tallinn, and Minsk and in German troops reaching the outskirts of Kiev. Indeed, at this point in time, both Russia and France conclude that they have lost (this scenario's) World War I and thus accept an armistice based on Kaiser Heinrich's peace plan. Shortly afterwards, Kaiser Heinrich's peace plan is converted into the 1921 (or 1922, depending on when exactly World War I ends in this scenario) Treaty of Potsdam.

There--how exactly was that?

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Also, for the record, I posted this thread here because even though this event itself occurs before 1900, many of the consequences of this event would occur after 1900.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Anyone?

 

[elektro]

Interesting scenario!

Not sure the French would be willing to accept territorial losses, it looked like borders were basically unchanged at the armistice on the western front. Status quo antebellum plus French renunciation of claims on German alsace-lorraine and reparations seems more plausible.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Interesting scenario!

Thank you very much!

Not sure the French would be willing to accept territorial losses, it looked like borders were basically unchanged at the armistice on the western front. Status quo antebellum plus French renunciation of claims on German alsace-lorraine and reparations seems more plausible.

With Russia already in chaos and revolution, though, I don't think that France would actually have much of a choice in the matter of territorial losses.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Also, to clarify, in this scenario of mine, Germany adopts an East-first strategy due to the fact that Russia's Great Military Program is already completed by that point in time. In addition to this, though, as I think that I've already stated above, Kaiser Heinrich would probably invest more in the German Army and in the German Air Force as opposed to in the German Navy (as opposed to Kaiser Wilhelm II in our TL).

 

[MarkA]

In 1880 the then Prince Willie fell from a light skiff into Potsdam Lake when the wife of the British ambassador was teaching him to scull. He was saved from drowning (he could not swim because of his arm) by two embassy staff who had accompanied Lady Ampthill.

Would his brother really be less interested in building up the German navy? He was a naval enthusiast and was a professional naval officer. There may not have been such a great change.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

In 1880 the then Prince Willie fell from a light skiff into Potsdam Lake when the wife of the British ambassador was teaching him to scull. He was saved from drowning (he could not swim because of his arm) by two embassy staff who had accompanied Lady Ampthill.

Unfortunately, though, Prince Willie needs to die in this scenario of mine.

Would his brother really be less interested in building up the German navy? He was a naval enthusiast and was a professional naval officer. There may not have been such a great change.

Less interested? Maybe not. Less willing? Very possibly Yes. After all, significantly expanding the German Navy probably means angering Britain and also means wasting money that could otherwise be used on the German Army and later on the German Air Force as well.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Indeed, given the fact that Heinrich probably had a better psychological state than Wilhelm had, I would think that, unlike Wilhelm, Heinrich would probably (and thankfully) let pragmatism trump emotions and desires.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Depending on when Wilhelm dies, it would be quite interesting, as, the later he dies, the less time you have Heinrich to be raised as Kronprinz. Whatever the case, you can imagine that Heinrich's career as a marine officer is kaputt as soon as his brother dies (hetook the naval officer examination in October 1880, and attended the German naval academy from 1884 to 1886).

Next problem. Bismarck. He was out of his depth by the late years of 1870s, so, getting rid o him isn't quite a shame. What it was awful was

a) having Wilhlem messing around, but that has been "fixed"
b) that Bismarck's sucessor were not real seasoned politician-statesmen, but civil servants

Would Heinrich pay attention to his advisers in a greater degree that his late bro did? That's the key question.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Depending on when Wilhelm dies, it would be quite interesting, as, the later he dies, the less time you have Heinrich to be raised as Kronprinz. Whatever the case, you can imagine that Heinrich's career as a marine officer is kaputt as soon as his brother dies (hetook the naval officer examination in October 1880, and attended the German naval academy from 1884 to 1886).

Next problem. Bismarck. He was out of his depth by the late years of 1870s, so, getting rid o him isn't quite a shame. What it was awful was

a) having Wilhlem messing around, but that has been "fixed"
b) that Bismarck's sucessor were not real seasoned politician-statesmen, but civil servants

Completely agreed with all of this.

Would Heinrich pay attention to his advisers in a greater degree that his late bro did? That's the key question.

Yes, I think that he would. Thus, the crucial question here is this--exactly what difference(s) in comparison to our TL would doing this result in?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

 

[MagicalRabbit]

Also, though, would Heinrich's regal name be Heinrich (I), Wilhelm II, or something else entirely?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

 

[Lindseyman]

I would assume that he would be Heinrich I. However he held his brother in greater respect OTL than was reciprocated so he may well have chosen Wilhelm as his regnal name (it was his second name after all).

 

[MagicalRabbit]

I would assume that he would be Heinrich I. However he held his brother in greater respect OTL than was reciprocated so he may well have chosen Wilhelm as his regnal name (it was his second name after all).

OK; that makes sense.

Also, though, do you have any thoughts about this scenario of mine in general?

 

[Lindseyman]

All seems very reasonable so far. Heinrich was much more stable than Wilhelm , he seems to have been a far better diplomat as well (for instance being well received in the US and being the first non Chinese Royal to visit the Imperial Court).

Relations with the UK may well have been more amicable but it would all depend on his attitude towards naval build up (OTL he did become a Grand Admiral and he did have an aircraft carrier built for use in the Baltic which would suggest an interesting change of emphasis!). However in this scenario he spends much less time in the Navy. It really depends on his advisors.

 

[MagicalRabbit]

All seems very reasonable so far. Heinrich was much more stable than Wilhelm , he seems to have been a far better diplomat as well (for instance being well received in the US and being the first non Chinese Royal to visit the Imperial Court).

Completely agreed.

Relations with the UK may well have been more amicable but it would all depend on his attitude towards naval build up (OTL he did become a Grand Admiral and he did have an aircraft carrier built for use in the Baltic which would suggest an interesting change of emphasis!). However in this scenario he spends much less time in the Navy. It really depends on his advisors.

Let me say this--even if Kaiser Heinrich decides to significantly expand the German Navy in this TL, he will probably do it in a less brash and boneheaded manner and thus probably have Britain react much less negatively to this German naval expansion in comparison to our TL. After all, chances are that Kaiser Heinrich is going to be less impulsive about German naval expansion and thus seek a mutually acceptable agreement with Britain about German naval expansion.

Also, though, in regards to World War I, I can see either having World War I break out sometime in the 1910s, 1920s, or 1930s in this TL or having World War I never break out at all in this TL. Indeed, a lot depends on the specific political atmosphere and on various political developments in this TL.