Fascinating scenario, I like how it contrasts with our previous discussion on the topic here:
With these PODs would too are intresting scenarios.
Most used PoD is probably a hardliner coup against Mussolini, resulting in the powerful Italian forces winning the war for their bumbling German sidekicks .
I am not so sure. Usually POD is around some familliar thing like famous battles or assassination attempts. So I would imaginate for Axis victory these being most popular PODs.
1. German victory at Stalingrad.
2. Succesful Mussolini's assassination in 1932 and Farinacci manage to gain power after power struggle.
3. Germany becomes fascist instead nazi (Perhaps Hitler is killed on Beer Hall Putsch).