The Federal States of America, the north secedes from the Union

[Xen]

What would have happened if the northern states seceded from the Union rather than the southern states? For the sake of argument let us say New England forms its own republic, but the remaining northern states secede and reform a new union called the Federal States of America, the FSA.

Would European nations be more prone to recognize the free soil/industrial states of the north? Would the south try to stop it? Or feel as the north had the right to secede? What event could have led to this turn around? The Gasden Purchase maybe?

 

[Ace Venom]

I have a feeling it would have been unopposed initially. However, Kansas and California might have been left out to dry. If California joins them, then they need the Plains and the West. War results.

 

[Canis Lupus]

However, it would be ironic if the South trys to stop them from seceeding.

 

[Atreus]

Somehow, I see the plains and west going for the FSA. there just isn't that much reason for them to stay with the "USA". Kentucy will be more important to the FSA than to the CSA. I can see some war occuring, but the South will probably be half-hearted at best.

Oh, and if New England is Part of the FSA, the USA is in trouble.

 

[Ghost 88]

Somehow, I see the plains and west going for the FSA. there just isn't that much reason for them to stay with the "USA". Kentucy will be more important to the FSA than to the CSA. I can see some war occuring, but the South will probably be half-hearted at best.

Oh, and if New England is Part of the FSA, the USA is in trouble.

The USA is in trouble with New England being part of it so whats the difference.

 

[zoomar]

If we're talking 1860, I think the "USA" (basically the south) would have let the north go since that would have given them the unquestioned right to retain slavery. In the absence of a civil war, the separation would have been unquestionably legal under what passed for international law and European States would have recognized both the FSA and "USA" This would also have created the clear legal precedent for peaceful succession, possibly leading several possible long term results:

(1) Continued fissioning of the two initial successor states over "minor" disagreements or geographic differences, leading to a balkanized north america.

(2) Solidification of the two successor states. The "USA" would consist of the south and much of the territorial west (which under US law is under national control until states are formed). The FSA would be the north, great lakes states, and the pacific states. If the separation were established peacefully, there would probably be some sort of treaty arrangement ceding a tier of northern territories to the FSA to maintain a land corridor between pacific and atlantic. Both nations would have inherited the notion of manifest destiny: the "USA" expanding south and west into Mexico, the FSA, possibly becoming an annoyance to British North America.

(3) possible later wars between the FSA and USA over the formerly unified western territories

(4) possible recognition by both the FSA and USA that some sort of union was still desireable and the reestablishment of a less-centralized confederation

 

[David S Poepoe]

The FSA would not include the states of the Old Northwest since they had threatened, or at least considered, secession from the Union also. They didn't like slavery, but didn't want the emancipated blacks moving into them as well.

New England has a long history of being secession-minded and at times not entirely pro-US.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

However, it would be ironic if the South trys to stop them from seceeding.

At least a few officers would have; Lee was (in)famous for his convulted opinion of secession; that it was alright if a Southern state did it, but that should a northern state do so it should be suppressed by force. Southern politicians might not decide to do so, but if they did Lee would fight for them.

 

[Max Sinister]

The Southerners might decide, though, that with the Yankees gone, they have control in the Senate again (depends on how many states secede - but even the six NE states would tip the balance). DoD some decades later?

 

[Sgt Detritus]

New England has a long history of being secession-minded and at times not entirely pro-US.

Hartford Convention anyone??

 

[David S Poepoe]

Hartford Convention anyone??

I figured that most of us knew about that and it would be fairly obvious and thereby not necessary to mention it.

 

[TotrueTufaar]

The Southerners would be more than happy to try taking down the North, as usual. They would first overturn all laws against slavery, with the exception of the importation, then invade the North and West.

 

[President Ledyard]

Assuming, as per the OP, that New England breaks away and the rest of the states north of the Ohio and the Potomac decide to break away I just can't really see the rest of the USA (more like CSA) trying to stop them.

Unlike the Northern states, the Southern have less of an economic interest in a greater Union (given all the trade w/ Europe) especially one in which a good chunk of the population is antagonistic to slavery.

Border wars? Sure, I could see that. But if the North didn't put their all into it (a la OTL Civil War) they'd probably be roughly handled by the more military minded Southerners.

 

[Alratan]

If we do see such a scenario, then I wouldn't be surprised if the Pig War went hot, or at least was settled in Britain's favour, with all of the Puget Sound ending up Canadian.

 

[Analytical Engine]

If we do see such a scenario, then I wouldn't be surprised if the Pig War went hot, or at least was settled in Britain's favour, with all of the Puget Sound ending up Canadian.

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