The fate of the Balkans if the Ottomans lose their European possessions a century earlier?

[Rufus]

Let‘s say the Ottoman Empire gets dismantled by a Franco-Russian alliance in the early 19th century, or they suffer a major defeat against the Austrians and/or Russians in the late 18th century and are forced to give up all their European territories - it doesn‘t matter how, the point is that the Ottomans are driven out of Europe sometime between 1770 and 1820.

My question is, what happens to all those territories afterward? Would powers like Austria and Russia just gobble up everything by themselves? Or would the European powers try to establish a bunch of independent Balkan Kingdoms? Did concepts of ‚Bulgaria‘, ‚Rumania‘, ‚Serbia‘ etc. even exist in the general consciousness back then, before the rise of modern nationalism?

Remember: in this scenario there were no popular anti-Ottoman revolts or revolutions by the various peoples of the region as happened IOTL. Instead the Ottomans are driven out militarily by foreign powers.

 

[Letum]

Bulgaria, Serbia and Wallachia were all kingdoms well before the Ottomans came around so their concepts existed indeed. However, completely independent kingdoms are unlikely since nobody is interested in bits of other empires gaining independence lest some of their own ethnicities get ideas.

Ultimately the result depends largely on the power balance of Europe at the time and wgaw each power wants. Russia would want to prop up friendly orthodox vassals and claim the straits. Austria would want to expand territorially into the nortern balkans. France might well be interested in grabbing attractive (strategically and culturally) Greek lands. Britain will want to stop everyone else from getting anything.

If enough imperial powers collaborate, you may get some kind of partition of territory between them that largely meets their respective strategic desires. If not, or if someone like Napoleon is involved, you may get up some strong local client state to be a counterweight to all other powers, possibly even an artificial revival of Eastern Rome (though more like the Latin Kingdom in flavour).

 

[funnyhat]

My guess - most of it falls under Austrian/Russian control (either directly or as protectorates) but an independent Greek state is established as a neutral compromise (somewhat like OTL but possibly including the straits). The great powers then spend the next century trying to gain influence over Greece and it may finally lead to conflict.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Let‘s say the Ottoman Empire gets dismantled by a Franco-Russian alliance in the early 19th century, or they suffer a major defeat against the Austrians and/or Russians in the late 18th century and are forced to give up all their European territories - it doesn‘t matter how, the point is that the Ottomans are driven out of Europe sometime between 1770 and 1820.

My question is, what happens to all those territories afterward? Would powers like Austria and Russia just gobble up everything by themselves? Or would the European powers try to establish a bunch of independent Balkan Kingdoms? Did concepts of ‚Bulgaria‘, ‚Rumania‘, ‚Serbia‘ etc. even exist in the general consciousness back then, before the rise of modern nationalism?

Remember: in this scenario there were no popular anti-Ottoman revolts or revolutions by the various peoples of the region as happened IOTL. Instead the Ottomans are driven out militarily by foreign powers.

Greeks are better off than Albanians, Serbs, Bosnians and Bulgarians. Large German migration South of the Sava River. The Russians use the Greeks as vassals bulgaria is likely divided between Russia, Austria and and the new Greek State.

 

[alexmilman]

Let‘s say the Ottoman Empire gets dismantled by a Franco-Russian alliance in the early 19th century, or they suffer a major defeat against the Austrians and/or Russians in the late 18th century and are forced to give up all their European territories - it doesn‘t matter how, the point is that the Ottomans are driven out of Europe sometime between 1770 and 1820.

My question is, what happens to all those territories afterward? Would powers like Austria and Russia just gobble up everything by themselves? Or would the European powers try to establish a bunch of independent Balkan Kingdoms? Did concepts of ‚Bulgaria‘, ‚Rumania‘, ‚Serbia‘ etc. even exist in the general consciousness back then, before the rise of modern nationalism?

Remember: in this scenario there were no popular anti-Ottoman revolts or revolutions by the various peoples of the region as happened IOTL. Instead the Ottomans are driven out militarily by foreign powers.

The OTL mess will start a century earlier so there will be much more time for it to become even more messier.

The "concepts" had been there. The problem was that nobody could tell for sure how they should be implemented in the terms of the borders. You can start with the Danubian Principalities. Should Walachia and Moldavia be a single state and if so, which part is going to the Russian Empire? Should Transilvania remain with Hungary? The issue is not 100% resolved even today. "Bulgaria" sounds nice but the borders of the historical one had been changing over time. "Greece" - seemingly simple but are we talking "classic Greece" (no Macedonia, no Constantinople), "Greece with Macedonia" (AFAIK, they are still arguing about true ethnicity of Alexander) or "Byzantine Empire" (at least Constantinople is in)? "Serbia" - the same problems with the neighbors (see "Yugoslavia" ) and not 100% clear relations with Hungary (Vojvodina), etc.

In OTL Austria was routinely going for the direct annexation scenarios while Russia tended to support an idea of the independent states or autonomous principalities within Ottoman Empire on condition that Russia retains the right to interfere (including military occupation) at will.

 

[Atterdag]

The Ottomans themselves probably grow stronger as they don't have to spend resources fighting Serbia, Romania, Greece ect.

 

[Socrates]

Greeks are better off than Albanians, Serbs, Bosnians and Bulgarians. Large German migration South of the Sava River. The Russians use the Greeks as vassals bulgaria is likely divided between Russia, Austria and and the new Greek State.

Would there really be large German migration into the Balkans in the 1800s? Why would Germans go into mountainous, difficult to farm land when they have other options in Poland and America?

 

[Socrates]

Depending on nationalism, I could even see a Greek state being expanded and expanded as a buffer state. The Great Powers could say "well, we can't have Austria or Russia getting this stuff for balance of power reasons, and they're all Orthodox, so let the Greeks have them".

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Would there really be large German migration into the Balkans in the 1800s? Why would Germans go into mountainous, difficult to farm land when they have other options in Poland and America?

Large? Yes. But relatively. I don't expect the Muslim population to stay. What are they going to do empty lands abandoned by Muslim Landowners? Use it with new migrants. There are enough Germans. If they went to far away places like Russia then Bosnia and Serbia are no issue.

 

[cmakk1012]

“Nationalism” a century earlier is completely nonexistent, so the states that are set up may well have an even more overtly religious bent than IOTL. I agree that the Muslims are likely sent packing in horrible ethnic cleansings.

An artificial East Rome is most likely if the Russians are the ones drawing the borders. If it’s the Austrians, I’d expect a bunch of little Habsburg duchies to be established. If it’s some mix of both, one possible peace is “Byzantium” (possibly even with that name, yuck) getting the Straits, Greece, and Bulgaria, and the rest goes to the Habsburgs.

 

[alexmilman]

Depending on nationalism, I could even see a Greek state being expanded and expanded as a buffer state. The Great Powers could say "well, we can't have Austria or Russia getting this stuff for balance of power reasons, and they're all Orthodox, so let the Greeks have them".

We are talking mid-/late XVIII. If Austria and Russia are in an agreement then you already have 2 Great Powers with Britain being forced to support them just to screw France (traditional Ottoman supporter at that time): Russian navy on the Med had been operating with British help. Which leaves Prussia but if we are talking post 7YW it would not go against both Russia and Austria (especially if promised a piece of Poland).

 

[GauchoBadger]

If the OE gets gutted by Tsar Alexander and Napoleon Bonaparte in the early 1810's, i bet the Balkan borders would end up different, especially if Austria has been gutted by that Corsican. I'd expect a two-party division of the Balkans between France and Russia based on geographical lines -- from the top of my head, the Illyrian Departments could be expanded to include Bosnia, which would likely put Serbia in Russia's sphere of influence out of fear.

 

[Skallagrim]

In this time period, Russia explicitly had the aim of "back to Byzantium", and an Austrian-Russian attempt to drive the Ottomans out of Europe was even launched. It went side-ways when the Austrian forces got hit hard by disease. Furthermore, while discussed earlier, it was launched after some delay, and Austria had to abandon the idea to deal with the French revolution and its chaotic results.

If this campaign had been launched a few years earlier, thus also butterflying the OTL disease problems, you get some interesting (albeit very bloody) results. I've entertained the idea of writing out a short scenario about this, even. Austria and Russia hadn't made final agreements, but the general aim was to create/restore some sort of Greek/Byzantine state. The Russian plan was to put Konstantin on the throne there, and somehow arrange to unite the restored "Byzantium" with Russia at the earliest opportunity. Generally speaking, Russia wanted to annex everything up to and including Wallachia directly, whereas Austria would get everything up to and including Serbia. The proposed Byzantine state would presumably include (besides Greece) OTL Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, European Turkey and any Greek-majority regions in Western Anatolia (including, certainly, Constantinople and environs).

Considering the fact that if carried out successfully on a slightly earlier time-table, this whole plan would be complete just about in time for the French revolution to distract all possible objectors to the above outcome, it may just work out as intended. In fact, since Austria will be distracted as well, that'll make it all the easier for Russia to pull the Byzantine state into its own orbit. Russia may even see fit to just blantantly ally with France, just to ensure its own interests are served.

It must be noted that the whole plan was advocated by Prince Potemkin, and in OTL, he actively ordered the massacre of just about every Muslim within the reach of the Russian forces. If this campaign is a complete success, expect the outcome to be very ugly for all Muslims living in the conquered areas. It'll be a "flee at once or get slaughtered" situation.

P.S. -- Russia obviously had designs on Eastern Anatolia as well. The Turks are going to get hit so hard by this that I don't see the Ottoman empire surviving at all. Instead, a Turkish rump state is going to be left, and the Arab regions are going to be going their own way, under the auspices of whoever seizes power first.

 

[Socrates]

We are talking mid-/late XVIII. If Austria and Russia are in an agreement then you already have 2 Great Powers with Britain being forced to support them just to screw France (traditional Ottoman supporter at that time): Russian navy on the Med had been operating with British help. Which leaves Prussia but if we are talking post 7YW it would not go against both Russia and Austria (especially if promised a piece of Poland).

Britain supported France several times in the 1700s and 1800s when it was worried about other powers getting too powerful. This would include Russia getting to the Med or Austria taking massive chunks of the Balkans.

 

[alexmilman]

Britain supported France several times in the 1700s and 1800s when it was worried about other powers getting too powerful. This would include Russia getting to the Med or Austria taking massive chunks of the Balkans.

Russian 1st Med expedition became possible due to the British help. Russian operations on the Med during 2nd coalition were in cooperation with the Brits. Hostility belongs to the later period. The same goes for Austria and the Balkans (not that the Brits could do to much about that region in XVIII - early XIX). Actually, the Brits offered Catherine II Majorca if she agreed to send troops to American colonies.