Interesting pod where Bose has managed to cause a massive uprising and India's elite are being forced to back or loose all their support.
On the topic of Pakistan, I feel jinnah would see the way the wind is blowing and begin to plot the best way to turn. Indeed it's not the worst environment for it, the Bengal famine so recent means the idea of provinces having a degree of autonomy would be quite popular.
Plus in some ways the awkward bits of their current situation benefits the league. The British indian occupation of iran to supply soviet aid needs the league's support given it's their stronghold plus the idea of border changes could grant them popularity.
After all iranian balochistan was apart of indian administration till 1924. Add in the likelihood that burma will be apart of india well the idea of a super majority is reduced both by the need of unity and the recent additions that could be brought from Iran and Burma.
Since the muslims are also quite sympathetic to Bose, the clamouring for partition is not too great. Added to that the fact that the Golden temple has been destroyed, the ruling Unionist Party, has made it a rallying point to unite Punjabis(since even the Muslims of Punjab are upset with Governor Glancy). So the League's influence in Punjab is also being eaten into. Bengal is a war zone and the pro-league government there is going to fall soon enough.
Well Tojo seems to be very pragmatic in this story with the cascading strategic defeats in the Pacific and the stalemate in China, I can't really blame him, also wasn't it just 300,000 men that Bose asked for?
I would think that Tojo would be enthusiastic with helping Bose to topple the British Raj and score a massive propaganda victory that the Japanese Empire desperately needs after the recent defeats off the Philippines Sea and the Strategic Bombing campaign of Japan that is scheduled to start by late 1944.
Also if we combine that 300k number with the current IJA force we got half million men, so somewhere around 600k.
The Philippine Sea and strategic bombing has not started yet, although, Japan will increase emphasis on India when it sees the navy start to lose ground, especially after the Philippine Sea debacle.
Are the British going to deflate D-Day and beating Hitler and the source of V-2 rockets and subs that can hit Britain to hold on to India? Or stay on task in Europe with the forces gathered there, consolidate where they can in Asia, and build up for later revenge when Hitler is done?
Churchill wants vengeance upon the Indians, but the narrative of the war in Europe is firmly in USA's hand. So for the allies Germany remains the topmost priority.
Personally I am more interested in Muslim League and reactions of Jinnah.
What is your plan about U. Muthuramalingam Thevar?
They are stuck rn. In OTL they supported Britain to get a piece of India as Pakistan, but now the support for Pakistan is evaporating with the success of Netaji. If they don't support the British, they'll be jailed. If they do, and Bose wins, then the people will come for them.
Jinnah s trying to steer a neutral course and will try to curry favour with whomsoever emerges the winner.
As such, I don't have anything in mind for Thevar, but post-war he can emerge as Netaji's man in the south, over Congress' Rajagopalachari.
What is Mountbatten up to? Still CC of Southeast Asia? He could recruit a few prince state leaders.
He is supreme commander in SE Asia. But there soon might be a change in the Viceroy's office after the disaster in Amritsar.
