The eagle's left head

[X Oristos]

Odds are, considering Lajos' character, that the Hungarians will leave the Lascarids to fend for themselves.

And it will be only fair - after all Theodore made peace with Louis of Taranto and let the Hungarians alone to deal with the mess. A very expensive mess.

Having said that, I doubt that Alexandros will see it that way - he has a bigger ego than his father and was also recently defeated by the Venetians. At some point. I expect to see a rapprochement or detente between Syracuse and Naples. I doubt the Hungarians will get any help in Italy in the future. I also expect the basileus to deal directly with the Camponeschi and not through their official overlord. After all, Alexandros has a lot of daughters to arrange marriages and Abruzzo will be a key partner.

Moreover, Abruzzo has a good reason to be relatively hostile to Venice: the Venetians were doing their best to ensure that Venice was the entrepôt of the Adriatic. Therefore, they were trying to dissuade ships from trading directly with the eastern coast of Italy, Abruzzo included.

Since this war had not been in defense of an existential threat, Alexandros II will likely find it hard - politically - to raise the subvertio generalis, very hard to convince the parliament to consent to it without a significant backlash. Take new loans from Genoese banks is less risky, politically speaking, so more likely I think.

Was privateering something yet in this era? If Alexandros cannot raise too many ships without raising taxes sky-high or huge loans, he could encourage/incentivize private actors to prey Venetian shipping on his behalf and pay themselves in loot.

The other solution is internal loans from the burgher elite. The peasants wouldn't care about a war with Venice. But the burghers will have the opportunity to become the dominant mercantile power in the Mediterranean. It is a stakeholder group with a lot to gain by digging deep in their pockets. In any case, they can enforce the creation of a bank to protect their rights and ensure that the Basileus pays them back.

Privateers were a thing and Michael Palaiologos used pirates/corsairs in his policy and so did the Genoese and the Catalans. By that time, most of the venetian trade was carried by cogs or in general round ships. The galleys would carry spices and silk, but most of the merchandise needed more spacious holds. Geography dictates that sicilian corsair fustas will make a killing.

In the 14th century they were also letters of marque. To quote "Piracy and the Venetian State- The Dilemma of Maritime Defence in the 14th century":

The letter of marque was similar to patents granted to corsairs, but it was issued to a specific individual in response to a particular incident and valid only for a limited time. The reprisal could allow him to assault either the particular vessel which had originally attacked him or all vessels originating from the aggressor's territory

Alexandros can very cheaply acquire dozens of Genoese pirates corsairs by providing letters of marque. With Apulia and Corfu as bases, they can strangle the venetian finances. More importantly, if Padua stays in the war, the corsairs will seriously disrupt the venetian grain trade - a grave danger. I expect the Venetians will dedicate a portion of their remaining galleys to escort the ships carrying grain from Marche, Abruzzo and hungarian Capitanata.

 

[galileo-034]

I expect the Venetians will dedicate a portion of their remaining galleys to escort the ships carrying grain from Marche, Abruzzo and hungarian Capitanata.

Which means fewer ships to deal with the imperial Lascarid navy, eventually. That's a good way to boost your numbers without spending any coin.

Longer term, one question begs answer: with over 7,000 crusaders besieging Rhodes, who is left defending Cyprus ?
Or put otherwise, if the Lascarid fleet emerged victorious and crusaders became stranded on Rhodes, what is preventing Alexandros from just rolling over the island of Cyprus in a fell swoop?
Timing is of the essence I surmise. Rhodes is a tough nut to crack, and I guess Pisani's victory at Kos means that they are cut off, for now. At this point, the Lascarids have had about ten years of peace to build up its defenses - Rhodes itself has been conquered for 19 years though; it's reasonable to assume they can hold long enough for a Sicilian fleet to return come the spring of 1366. If the Lascarids regain control of the sea at this point, then the crusaders become stranded. And if Rhodes still resists at this point, things could go very wrong for them.

 

[Basileus_of_the_Hellenes]

Chalkis, June 1365

The fleet of Vettor Pisani entered the straits breaking the siege. It was about time as the defenders were coming close to the end of their tether. If the siege had continued for a month or two more Chalkis would had likely surrendered.

Did Buas pull a Licario in the months before Pisani's arrival and captured other parts of Euboea or was solely focused on Chalkis ?

I second this question as well! Did the rest of Euboea fall, leaving Chalkis as the only Venetian holding in 1364?

Syracuse, April 1365

A squadron of thirteen galleys sailed off to join the fleet further to the east. More ships could had been raised. But this, unlike previous wars was one of choice. Alexandros so far was avoiding to either raise the subvertio generalis or new loans. After all so far it did not appear to be necessary...

Hm, how close was Alexandros to clearing all the loans taken in the last war @Lascaris? I'm assuming roughly a decade of peace helped things considerably, along with the integration of new conquests and peoples? Do you have a rule of thumb for the income that Syracuse is pulling in, perhaps based on population size or based on the OTL Ottoman income for Hellas? I'm sure trying to gather economic sources for the 14th century isn't the easiest, if it's anything like trying to get maps of it.

Constantinople, October 1365

Ioannis V was convinced by the Venetian bailo to join the war against the Sicilians with the Venetians promising Ioannis subsidies for half a dozen galleys and to return to him land lost to the Sicilians in the past...

Perhaps, but, besides that the Sicilian Basileus would have other priorities and more meaningful enemies to defeat/punish for their attack and Ioanis even if a bother, Alexandros' fellow Basileus contribution to the war, or actual or future menace, compared to the rest, it wouldn't be meaningful enough.
So, I don't think probable that in the aftermath of what would appear that will be a bloody war, that, at these times, Alexandros would be probable to have enough resources and time, as for spare, in a more or less prolonged siege of Constantinople...
Which, even if successful wouldn't provide to the Sicilian Basileus with nothing but one more place and a highly symbolic one, also, to defend. But, without giving him any more resources to pay for its defense.

I agree wholeheartedly with @Xenophonte here; Ioannis V won't be gaining any territories in this war, in fact, I'd argue that he will lose any islands in the Sea of Marmara & the Aegean that he still holds to Alexandros most likely. Alexandros will want to make sure that Methone, Corone, Euboea, Rhodes, Crete, Kos, and the Hellenic Peninsula are all secured first. Then he's gonna most likely seek vengence on Cyprus next, maybe after taking Tenedos and the other ERE islands in the Aegean.

Honestly, I mainly wonder if we will see Alexandros pick up Attaleia on his way to 'reconquer' Cyprus... Will the first step into Anatolia be from the South instead of the West in Smyrna? Or I'm wrong and Attaleia falls to the Turkish tribes surrounding it, while its garrison is pulled back to Cyprus, and Anatolia is forsaken of a Hellenic presence for decades yet...

 

[Basileus_of_the_Hellenes]

Honestly, I mainly wonder if we will see Alexandros pick up Attaleia on his way to 'reconquer' Cyprus... Will the first step into Anatolia be from the South instead of the West in Smyrna? Or I'm wrong and Attaleia falls to the Turkish tribes surrounding it, while its garrison is pulled back to Cyprus, and Anatolia is forsaken of a Hellenic presence for decades yet...

Disregard my own comment! Alexandros already controls the mines on the mainland near Lesbos...

 

[Quinkana]

Which means fewer ships to deal with the imperial Lascarid navy, eventually. That's a good way to boost your numbers without spending any coin.

Longer term, one question begs answer: with over 7,000 crusaders besieging Rhodes, who is left defending Cyprus ?
Or put otherwise, if the Lascarid fleet emerged victorious and crusaders became stranded on Rhodes, what is preventing Alexandros from just rolling over the island of Cyprus in a fell swoop?
Timing is of the essence I surmise. Rhodes is a tough nut to crack, and I guess Pisani's victory at Kos means that they are cut off, for now. At this point, the Lascarids have had about ten years of peace to build up its defenses - Rhodes itself has been conquered for 19 years though; it's reasonable to assume they can hold long enough for a Sicilian fleet to return come the spring of 1366. If the Lascarids regain control of the sea at this point, then the crusaders become stranded. And if Rhodes still resists at this point, things could go very wrong for them.

tbf I have an inkling that we may see Cyprus fall if the main crusading force fails to destroy the New Roman Empire in detail. After all, Venice could still hole up in the Adriatic (no matter how economically costly it is due to Venice being a trade power: Venice would be on its death door too if that is the case) while the fall of Cyprus wouldn't be as scary for the Europeans than the others.

But seriously I think even with the Hungarians leaving after extracting what they want from Venice Venice will have a very bad time especially if the Genoese join in. At this point the Venetians are already not doing very well even though a lot of ships are still being used to supply the Dalmatian cities, but as arta is retaken by the Lascarids already the Lascarids blockading them becomes a lot more plausible, even if it would be a lot more expensive for Alexandros II. If the Genoese come in Venice is done. They will have to submit to the basileus or they will die.

Disregard my own comment! Alexandros already controls the mines on the mainland near Lesbos...

wait when did the lascarids control any bit of anatolia?

 

[Xenophonte]

wait when did the lascarids control any bit of anatolia?

Phokaia was taken in April 1356

 

[Quinkana]

Phokaia was taken in April 1356

oh ye thx for reminding me, having a foothold in Anatolia is important at the end of the day.

 

[Avrorrange]

I have a question . How many people are defending Cyprus right now?

 

[Whiteshore]

Agreed, think how this looks to the average citizen of the empire, the Palaiologoi are siding with the very republic that destroyed the empire against the descendent and heir of one of the men who helped restore it, as he tries to free their fellow countryman from said republic all the while the Ottomans are running rampant in the Balkans.

Meaning John V has signed his death warrant and ensured the Lascarids can be restored to the throne of Constantinople.

 

[Avrorrange]

Suppose the Lascarids land a force in Cyprus, can they expect a revolt by the native Greeks?

 

[Xenophonte]

I have a question . How many people are defending Cyprus right now?

I'd suppose that very least that there would have been left the troops garrisoning the Island fortress/castles and main cities and/or if existed) the royal guards. Also, I'd guess that if an emergency like an invasion or a mass revolt,that if possible, that all or part of the garrison of Attaleia in Anatolia, could be called back to the Island...

 

[Avrorrange]

I'd suppose that very least that there would have been left the troops garrisoning the Island fortress/castles and main cities and/or if existed) the royal guards. Also, I'd guess that if an emergency like an invasion or a mass revolt,that if possible, that all or part of the garrison of Attaleia in Anatolia, could be called back to the Island...

Assuming the navy is intact to carry the troops back…If the fleet got destroyed, seems like the Franks of Cyprus are very screwed.

 

[Valin Arcadius]

I have a question . How many people are defending Cyprus right now?

Not enough...

 

[Avrorrange]

Not enough...

Looks like a good idea to destroy their fleet, leave them stranded with little to no food besieging Rhodes and then attack the relatively undefended but wealthy Cyprus.

 

[emperor joe]

I wonder if there will be a revolt ala re alexis in Cyprus...

 

[X Oristos]

Timing is of the essence I surmise. Rhodes is a tough nut to crack, and I guess Pisani's victory at Kos means that they are cut off, for now. At this point, the Lascarids have had about ten years of peace to build up its defenses - Rhodes itself has been conquered for 19 years though; it's reasonable to assume they can hold long enough for a Sicilian fleet to return come the spring of 1366.

I believe so yes. The island is well-fortified and besides the castle of Rhodes itself, there are the major castles of Lindos, Asclipieio and Monolithos.

I think there is also a possibility for a rift between Peter and the Venetians. The lattter have suffered a lot of casualties and Kallergis has a significant army. They cannot hope to bring Italian mercenaries to Crete, so they have to hire turkish mercenaries. Considering Peter's crusading zeal, I doubt he will be overly fond of sending Turks against christians, even schismatic ones. Moreover, Pisani simply has to at least try and blockade Rethymnon, Souda and Chania, otherwise the venetian position in Crete will deteriorate. I doubt he will go against Chios or Lesvos and leave his compatriots in Crete without naval support. The only target that might distract him is Piraeus itself, where the sicilian fleet is being rebuilt. At the same time, Peter needs to keep blockading Rhodes, since at least the castles of Lindos and Rhodes are strong enough to withstand direct assault. He needs to starve them out and for that reason he needs his fleet around Rhodes. He also cannot afford a multi-year campaign since that's the fullest mobilization of his kingdom. He cannot keep such numbers of men and ships in Rhodes for a long time.

In OTL the Karamanids attacked Corycos in February 1367. If the Karamanids know that Peter has taken all his ships and men-at-arms to Rhodes, they might attack sooner than in OTL. After all, the current campaign is not a raid of few days like the OTL Alexandrian Crusade. Peter's legitimacy is derived by protecting his subjects and he cannot ignore any Karamanid attacks. He also needs to keep paying his garrisons at Corycos and Antalya. When in early 1367 the payment of Antalya's garrison was delayed, they mutinied and threatened to hand over the city to the Karamanids.

At this point of the war, the ones who need a decisive battle are the Venetians. The more they are delayed in the Aegean, the worse the financial situation of the Serenissima gets. With 20 galleys sent east, the metropole has only 17 left - even after a general muster. Even in the best case, where they hire a lot of mercenaries to deal with Padua - they hired some 6,000 mercenaries in the War of Chioggia if memory serves right, these 17 galleys are too few. They have to contain the sicilian squadron of Corfu (that with some help of the locals can be 6 galleys) and hunt down every corsair fusta operating from Apulia. The Venetians can certainly deal with them, but in that case there won't be any reinforcements sent to Pisani. And even if the Genoese do not enter the war, the threat they pose means that the Venetians cannot empty their Lagoon of galleys and fighting men. Because if all their forces are in the East, then weakness in their home waters would increase the likelihood of the Genoese entering the war.

 

[galileo-034]

Hm, how close was Alexandros to clearing all the loans taken in the last war @Lascaris? I'm assuming roughly a decade of peace helped things considerably, along with the integration of new conquests and peoples?

We only know that when the war with Serbia ended, Lascarid debt amounted to 1.5 million florins, and that a few years before, the year on year budget deficit was in the 300k-400k ducats due to war expenditures.
But aside of spending figures on fortification efforts in Attica and Chios in the 1330s, I don't remember reading about the overall Lascarid revenue.

 

[X Oristos]

It will be interesting the butterflies unleashed and how they have influenced things around Italy.

At this point, Urban V has declared three crusades: One against the marauding bands of mercenaries pillaging France and Italy, one against Bernabo Visconti and one against Alexandros for supporting the Cretan rebels. In OTL, the Pope was encaptured by the prospect of organizing a crusade in the Holy Land. To that end, he went into great lengths: he ended the war against Bernabo, ordering Cardinal Albornoz to stand down- something that the militant cardinal didn't like since he was winning. In order to reach an accomodation with Bernabo the Pope even paid 500,000 florins in return for peace. Then the Pople proceeded in very actively intefering in the brewing conflict between Count Amadeus of Savoy and the Marquis of Saluzzo who was supported by the french-controlled Dauphine.

So the million ducat question is whether a crusade for the venetian colony of Crete is more important to the Pope than the war with Milan and if he is willing to pay 500,000 florins just to be able to assist Venice. If not, then the political situation in Italy would be much different than in OTL. Albornoz continues the war he was winning and most likely John Palaiologos of Montferrat will continue his fight against Milan as a papal ally. He won't be ordered to stand down. The Green Count was about to invade Saluzzo and the French governor of the Dauphine stood by the side of the marquis. Peter of Cyprus is currently besieging castles in Rhodes and he has not been touring Europe to promote a crusade against the infidel. Being a great knight and jouster he did excellent advertising for the crusading cause. Peter's tour was also an excellent excuse for French nobles that weren't happy on having to do homage to the Black Prince. I think it is plausible that these nobles might end up joining the Free Companies in Italy.

It is also interesting to see if the very difficult position of Joanna in Naples has altered her policy in Provence. In 1358 she had ordered the seneschal of Provence to attack John Palaiologos in Piedmont - the Angevins still controlled some fiefs in south Piedmont around Cuneo. However, I doubt that avoiding that attack would have made much difference because the Provencals didn't do much.

 

[Alkmaion]

A taking of Constantinopel is really ill-advised now. From Adrianopel the Osman can cut you off in a heartbeat. The reverse would be better; attacking Gallipoli and severing the connections between Europe and Asia. Though one needs to weather through the current wars first, of course

 

[nickmn]

A taking of Constantinopel is really ill-advised now. From Adrianopel the Osman can cut you off in a heartbeat. The reverse would be better; attacking Gallipoli and severing the connections between Europe and Asia. Though one needs to weather through the current wars first, of course

The Ottomans are a bit beyond impossible to cut the Lascarids off if they take Constantinople.You cant cut off a coastal city when its held by someone with absolute sea dominance against you. The opposite is true actually. All the Lascarids need to sever the Ottoman territories in 2 is a naval base in the sea of Marmara...