The eagle's left head

[Nuraghe]

I am actually thinking whether the despotate would(or could) conquer all of italy or just the southern portions. If the latter, I am just crackling thinking about the future where the Italians nationalists are trying to see if a united Italy includes a very greek southern italy.

it is unlikely that the Despotate will want to conquer all of Italy north of Naples, indeed at this moment it is already engaged on several fronts at the same time, furthermore the Po Valley is highly urbanized and extremely populous ( so much so that it is the region with the most inhabitants in Europe for square kilometer, and if we compare it in proportions it becomes the second largest after France ) so where does the court of Syracuse get the men from to control, defense, administer and hypothetically assimilate the population ? ( nowhere, because they wouldn't have the means to do it ) this is why I think it more likely that the Lascarides will want to gain control of all the territories south of Campania, transform Naples into a glorified Duchy of Langobardia Minor ( aka a part of the territories of south in the hands of the Lombard elite of the 7th/11th century ) their ally, potentially separate Spoleto and the other old regions of the Altavilla kingdom and give this a their Latin vassals and then try to cultivate good neighborly relations with the rest of the states of the peninsula, so as to be able to concentrate elsewhere , such as in the Balkans and Asia Minor and continue the process of integrating the new possessions within their state, because I believe that trying to push themselves to conquer the whole peninsula could extend them too much and potentially put them at risk with continuous squabbles having to deal with an immense, perpetually irritable Latin population ( just think of the same population of Naples in TL, I doubt that after decades of conflicts against the Despotate, they are dying to be governed by the hated "Greek-Sicilian heretics" 😜😇, quite the opposite, they are craving revenge ) and I don't want to start imagining the religious problems that something like this would create, in particular if a non-Catholic power ends up controlling Rome, Nah much better for Syracuse to continue the didivi et impera, it is to leave the region alone as long as it does not represent a threat to itself

Oh at least I think this might be the author's idea for future developments, right @Lascaris ?



P.s

I think it more likely in this scenario that an emperor might be more inclined to support the ideas of the Italian ruling class for the creation of a local electorate for HRE ( considering that both Henry VII, Albert I and Ludwig IV were extremely favorable to this in OTL, but for external factors have never been able to delve deeper into the issue to make it feasible ) especially given that the Pope is not present on the peninsula, and the Angevins are in " full civil war " and therefore the strongest stronghold of the Guelph faction is falling to pieces, this certainly will not mean a complementary Italy north of Amalfi under total HRE control, but rather an ingenious compromise between the elites of the peninsula and the imperial government that satisfies the two parties, leaving local autonomy intact but still allowing some form of imperial authority albeit by indirect ( through the electorate )

 

[Whiteshore]

I could see them conquering Crimea and propping up a christian Ukraine state too, or use it to trade with Russia if Moscovy rises ittl.

Speaking of which, for all we know, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania ends up becoming Orthodox instead of Catholic ITTL. After all, most of their subjects were already Orthodox from taking Ruthenia.

 

[Vince]

That one I guess:

The philoshopher Emperor

Ah I had fond memories of reading such an in-depth TL about Byzantium. It was very well written. I also liked the Entente Bosporus landing succeeding TL (I can't remember the name) and the Sealion Fails TL.

Now who would win in a battle against each other: Theodore IV from the Philosopher Emperor or Andreas I from Age of Miracles?

 

[X Oristos]

I think it more likely that the Lascarides will want to gain control of all the territories south of Campania, transform Naples into a glorified Duchy of Langobardia Minor ( aka a part of the territories of south in the hands of the Lombard elite of the 7th/11th century ) their ally, potentially separate Spoleto and the other old regions of the Altavilla kingdom and give this a their Latin vassals and then try to cultivate good neighborly relations with the rest of the states of the peninsula

That seems the most likely case. I doubt the Sicilians will have ambitions beyond Apulia and Basilicata. Campania and Abruzzo would make excellent buffer states between Sicily and the rest of Italy. However, I see the Lascarids being active in Spoleto and Romagna to support local signori against the Pope and the Venetians. Ancona is also a major trade partner of Apulia, importing grain and fine olive oil for its soap industry. I can see the Lascarids supporting a Malatesta Ancona or later on a free commune.

I think it more likely in this scenario that an emperor might be more inclined to support the ideas of the Italian ruling class for the creation of a local electorate for HRE ( considering that both Henry VII, Albert I and Ludwig IV were extremely favorable to this in OTL, but for external factors have never been able to delve deeper into the issue to make it feasible ) especially given that the Pope is not present on the peninsula, and the Angevins are in " full civil war " and therefore the strongest stronghold of the Guelph faction is falling to pieces, this certainly will not mean a complementary Italy north of Amalfi under total HRE control, but rather an ingenious compromise between the elites of the peninsula and the imperial government that satisfies the two parties, leaving local autonomy intact but still allowing some form of imperial authority albeit by indirect ( through the electorate )

I have some reservations on that potential development. I think that Venice won't reach its OTL power and influence, even though it will still be a prosperous city. It will be easier for the Visconti to completely dominate not just Lombardy, but the whole of Padania. If such development takes place, then I expect the Visconti to put pressure to the Emperor to give them the Iron Crown. I doubt they will be inclined to become simple electors or remain dukes.

given that in a few year, the Crown of Aragon would be at war with Castile and involved in the Castilian civil/dynastic war (that conflued in a Iberian spillover of the HYW with French, Navarrese and English involvement).

Frankly I see Aragon pivot to African trade and crusading against Granada and eventually the Moroccans to secure sea lanes to do the African trade. After all, the Tunis gold dust trade that would make the Lascarids rich for now would defo be something the Aragonese crave, and make them want to sail to Africa to trade for the gold dust themselves.

IIRC, politically, it was so, but aside that even if independent they always counted with main branch backing,economical and commercial such possessions, were the keystones in baser to which the Aragonese Naval tradition/power and the economical and financial Barcelona based oligarchy came to be so important both for Aragon and later for Spain...

Sicily was a major market for the Catalans. Along with the Genoese, they controlled 80% of the islands trade. Sicily was also a major market for catalan and valencian textiles, the most important export of the Crown of Aragon. The Catalans have also lost the markets of the OTL duchies of Athens and Neopatras. We know that they exported textiles among other merchandise to Greece. There is another development though: Occitania, another traditional trade partner of Catalonia is currently torn apart by the HYW. At the same time, without having friendly ports at Athens, I would expect the trade with the Levant to be in smaller volume that in OTL when the Crown of Aragon was the third most important player after Venice and Genoa.

Overall, the aragonese trade is suffering and indeed the only traditional markets left are Maghreb and Granada. This is a map of the aragonese consulates in 1385. The importance of Sicily cannot be understated. The trade with the Maghreb was dominated by Valencia and Mallorca. Since that was the case, how any more catalan and valencian textiles could the Maghreb absorb?

At the same time, with the Venetians having stopped their atlantic expeditions and the Genoese and Catalans at each other's throats, the Atlantic Trade is open to the Sicilians who have the right combination of export products. While we have mentioned english wool there is another import item that will be of importance: madder from Flanders.

In any case, the Crown of Aragon will be neutralized as a threat until at least 1366. By that time, I expect the Despotate to have properly integrated Basilicata and Apulia and it will be quite secure.

 

[Nuraghe]

That seems the most likely case. I doubt the Sicilians will have ambitions beyond Apulia and Basilicata. Campania and Abruzzo would make excellent buffer states between Sicily and the rest of Italy. However, I see the Lascarids being active in Spoleto and Romagna to support local signori against the Pope and the Venetians. Ancona is also a major trade partner of Apulia, importing grain and fine olive oil for its soap industry. I can see the Lascarids supporting a Malatesta Ancona or later on a free commune.



I have some reservations on that potential development. I think that Venice won't reach its OTL power and influence, even though it will still be a prosperous city. It will be easier for the Visconti to completely dominate not just Lombardy, but the whole of Padania. If such development takes place, then I expect the Visconti to put pressure to the Emperor to give them the Iron Crown. I doubt they will be inclined to become simple electors or stay dukes.







Sicily was a major market for the Catalans. Along with the Genoese, they controlled 80% of the islands trade. Sicily was also a major market for catalan and valencian textiles, the most important export of the Crown of Aragon. The Catalans have also lost the markets of the OTL duchies of Athens and Neopatras. We know that they exported textiles among other merchandise to Greece. There is another development though: Occitania, another traditional trade partner of Catalonia is currently torn apart by the HYW. At the same time, without having friendly ports at Athens, I would expect the trade with the Levant to be in smaller volume that in OTL when the Crown of Aragon was the third most important player after Venice and Genoa.

Overall, the aragonese trade is suffering and indeed the only traditional markets left are Maghreb and Granada. This is a map of the aragonese consulates in 1385. The importance of Sicily cannot be understated. The trade with the Maghreb was dominated by Valencia and Mallorca. Since that was the case, how any more catalan and valencian textiles could the Maghreb absorb?

View attachment 893199

At the same time, with the Venetians having stopped their atlantic expeditions and the Genoese and Catalans at each other's throats, the Atlantic Trade is open to the Sicilians who have the right combination of export products. While we have mentioned english wool there is another import item that will be of importance: madder from Flanders.

In any case, the Crown of Aragon will be neutralized as a threat until at least 1366. By that time, I expect the Despotate to have properly integrated Basilicata and Apulia and it will be quite secure.

actually you are right in saying that the Milan of the Viscontis will have a greater opportunity to consolidate its conquests compared to Otl, but there are still strong local actors who will prevent it from obtaining full control of the region ( the Verona of the Scaligeri is still a formidable actor, even more so if Venice is slightly castrated, then we obviously have Florence, Savoy ( albeit to a lesser extent ) and Rome ( I don't think the Papacy will be able to stay out of Italy for longer than OTL, considering that the first missions to recover control over the heritage of San Peter date back to the 1340s, then culminating with the successful campaigns of Cardinal Albernoz ) without forgetting that even beyond the Alps the situation can become less chaotic ( for example the Wittelsbachs can manage to maintain control of the empire, or an ATL Charles IV manages to have a more capable successor ) therefore for Milan to accept the role of Elector is not a loss, but rather the opposite, because in this way both the Visconti dynasty and their conquests are legitimized in one fell swoop, preventing their adversaries from attacking them to try to steal them of the territories, finally this recognition would be the confirmation from the imperial side that Milan de facto " governs " Italy ( the maximum achievable according to the laws of the HRE and obtained peacefully ), the real question here now is another, who will control Romagna and its surroundings ( because Bologna in Otl was able to resist Milanese control and was also highly coveted by the Este family, so whoever managed to maintain it could use it as a base to expand in the region, and would certainly obtain the support of the anti-Visconti faction )

 

[Valin Arcadius]

You know thinking on the Visconti, if things go similar to OTL, and if Alexander II and Blanche have a grandson born around the early 1370s as the second in line to the Despotate it opens up the possibility of a marriage alliance with rather fascinating long-term implications, in the form of Gian Galeazzo Visconti's daughter Valentina. while the short-term geopolitical implications of a friendly power in northern Italy cannot be discounted for the Despotate, the minor stipulation in her dowery, (one no one thought would amount to much at the time) when she married Louis of Orleans IOTL, and presumably Alexandros's grandson ITTL provides a far more interesting long-term possibility. I speak of course of the clause that stipulated that in the absence of male heirs, Valentina and her descendants would inherit the Visconti dominions. Which is the casus belli on which her grandson Louis XII of France claimed the Duchy of Milan and embarked on the Italian Wars, presuming that the despotate (or rather the empire, as most of us expect it to turn into at some point in the next century) isn't tied up in other conflicts(a big if I know) and able to press its claim you have a viable foundation to bring most if not all of Italy under their control. Especially if they keep pushing that united Greco-Roman identity that seems to have been gaining traction in the despotate over the last few decades.

Food for the thought,

 

[Lascaris]

Ah I had fond memories of reading such an in-depth TL about Byzantium. It was very well written. I also liked the Entente Bosporus landing succeeding TL (I can't remember the name) and the Sealion Fails TL.

Sealion Fails was by Steven Rogers I was just hosting it on my site back then.

Now who would win in a battle against each other: Theodore IV from the Philosopher Emperor or Andreas I from Age of Miracles?

Andreas I is Alexander the Great with PTSD... Theodore IV is Philip of Macedon. Or Mehmet II I suppose.

 

[Vince]

Sealion Fails was by Steven Rogers I was just hosting it on my site back then.

Andreas I is Alexander the Great with PTSD... Theodore IV is Philip of Macedon. Or Mehmet II I suppose.

I vaguely remember you saying that about Sealion fails the last time you brought this up in AoM. It's kind of difficult to find the old 90s-era GeoCities pages anymore to confirm if you don't get the google search near perfect.

 

[Nuraghe]

You know thinking on the Visconti, if things go similar to OTL, and if Alexander II and Blanche have a grandson born around the early 1370s as the second in line to the Despotate it opens up the possibility of a marriage alliance with rather fascinating long-term implications, in the form of Gian Galeazzo Visconti's daughter Valentina. while the short-term geopolitical implications of a friendly power in northern Italy cannot be discounted for the Despotate, the minor stipulation in her dowery, (one no one thought would amount to much at the time) when she married Louis of Orleans IOTL, and presumably Alexandros's grandson ITTL provides a far more interesting long-term possibility. I speak of course of the clause that stipulated that in the absence of male heirs, Valentina and her descendants would inherit the Visconti dominions. Which is the casus belli on which her grandson Louis XII of France claimed the Duchy of Milan and embarked on the Italian Wars, presuming that the despotate (or rather the empire, as most of us expect it to turn into at some point in the next century) isn't tied up in other conflicts(a big if I know) and able to press its claim you have a viable foundation to bring most if not all of Italy under their control. Especially if they keep pushing that united Greco-Roman identity that seems to have been gaining traction in the despotate over the last few decades.

Food for the thought,

certainly this is very interesting and ending up with an heiress like that would appeal to many, but for something like this to happen, it means that north of the Despotate things continue almost exactly like Otl, which is really very unlikely, certainly nothing prevents that there may be some succession struggle in the coming decades, but not necessarily in Milan, and finally thinking with a clear mind, I don't think that the Milanese ruling class will want to find itself governed by a "Greek-Sicilian heretic" who claims to be a Roman ( albeit in Greek ) and rules from Syracuse, it would be a perfect recipe for disaster

 

[Alkmaion]

Well, @Laskaris, you really keep me guessing. For a good while I thought that the Vatatzes would go for Constantinopel, but I am leaning more into the possibility that they will let the Palaiologos dynasty fall and errecting a new empire after them. Whatever will happen, I think it will be good

 

[galileo-034]

Something comes to mind. Wasn't Nikephoros Gregoras, the latest newcomer to the University of Syracuse, the first to propose a calendar reform that would be adopted IOTL in the 16th century?
I sense a Gregor(i)an calendar is not far away from adoption by the Lascarids and the anti hesychast church.

 

[Quinkana]

Well, on Navarre, asides that due to the marriage alliance the Vatastez /Lascaris would, if wished and would happen an interregnum, in position to claim ,I'd suppose that they'd be in friendly terms with Navarre. And, about Sardinia, actually, still isn't controlled nor it would be so until the next century.

I don't see the Lascarids directly taking control, but they could get a cadet branch derived from anges and alexandros' children to be the new rulers. Hell, Adrienne probably could get her and her husband to inherit the Navarrese throne of they play their cards right. That's how the Lascarids claim their legitmacy in the despotate.

IIRC, at this date, and if not butterflied, the king of Aragon has taken possession of the Island (along with the Counties of Cerdanya and Roussillon) and defeated the ousted monarch reconquest attempt killing him in the Battle of Llucmajor. So, I'd suppose that if the Despotate would ever needed to stir troubles for Argon or pay back them,.. Then, I'd guess that financing the heirs in the exile means to make effective their claims to the throne of Mallorca, would be the more easy and effective way to do so...

Currently the pretender is locked in a prison so it'd be a bit hard to move against (in otl) maybe Lascarid agents mount a prison break or something, as Joanna funded the original battle idk if things would go similar to otl too.

We defo would see Sardinia being the place where the Aragonese and Sicilians first try to exert influence over.

Speaking of which, for all we know, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania ends up becoming Orthodox instead of Catholic ITTL. After all, most of their subjects were already Orthodox from taking Ruthenia.

tbf true, but it requires the ruling class to want to be closer to the ppl they rule, which considering that Lithuania is very much a landlord dominated state I don't see that happening.

Maybe PLC becomes more successful ittl, but otherwise I don't see it happening.

I could see the Lascarids putting a cadet branch in Trebizond and kartvelia tho, would help them consolidate the Black Sea.

That seems the most likely case. I doubt the Sicilians will have ambitions beyond Apulia and Basilicata. Campania and Abruzzo would make excellent buffer states between Sicily and the rest of Italy. However, I see the Lascarids being active in Spoleto and Romagna to support local signori against the Pope and the Venetians. Ancona is also a major trade partner of Apulia, importing grain and fine olive oil for its soap industry. I can see the Lascarids supporting a Malatesta Ancona or later on a free commune.

Tbf I think the Sicilians could claim all of Naples as the kings of Sicily, but I don't see them doing so under the rule of Theodore.

I defo see them conquering the lands they hold rn and waiting for the opportunity to claim all of Naples, especially Alexandros ii or his descendants, as he would care a lot more about crowns and succession. He is the ruler of a rapidly growing and stable nation after all...

I have some reservations on that potential development. I think that Venice won't reach its OTL power and influence, even though it will still be a prosperous city. It will be easier for the Visconti to completely dominate not just Lombardy, but the whole of Padania. If such development takes place, then I expect the Visconti to put pressure to the Emperor to give them the Iron Crown. I doubt they will be inclined to become simple electors or remain dukes.

Yeah I agree, the Visconti would be able to act a lot more freely with the Lascarids acting against the Venetians, and the Visconti and the Lascarids have similar goals while not having a lot of things to quarrel over.

Sicily was a major market for the Catalans. Along with the Genoese, they controlled 80% of the islands trade. Sicily was also a major market for catalan and valencian textiles, the most important export of the Crown of Aragon. The Catalans have also lost the markets of the OTL duchies of Athens and Neopatras. We know that they exported textiles among other merchandise to Greece. There is another development though: Occitania, another traditional trade partner of Catalonia is currently torn apart by the HYW. At the same time, without having friendly ports at Athens, I would expect the trade with the Levant to be in smaller volume that in OTL when the Crown of Aragon was the third most important player after Venice and Genoa.

Overall, the aragonese trade is suffering and indeed the only traditional markets left are Maghreb and Granada. This is a map of the aragonese consulates in 1385. The importance of Sicily cannot be understated. The trade with the Maghreb was dominated by Valencia and Mallorca. Since that was the case, how any more catalan and valencian textiles could the Maghreb absorb?

At the same time, with the Venetians having stopped their atlantic expeditions and the Genoese and Catalans at each other's throats, the Atlantic Trade is open to the Sicilians who have the right combination of export products. While we have mentioned english wool there is another import item that will be of importance: madder from Flanders.

In any case, the Crown of Aragon will be neutralized as a threat until at least 1366. By that time, I expect the Despotate to have properly integrated Basilicata and Apulia and it will be quite secure.

Yeah I defo see the Lascarids pushing for Atlantic trade for now, as the Catalans are weakened and the Venetians won't be moving in that direction.

In the long term tho I do wonder, bc I could see the Aragonese conquering Granada and the North African coast to capture the african market, do some colonisation and to lock the Lascarids out from the Atlantic in the guise of crusading. A bunch of African crusades between the Lascarids and the Aragonese would be a fun way for the story to move towards.

You know thinking on the Visconti, if things go similar to OTL, and if Alexander II and Blanche have a grandson born around the early 1370s as the second in line to the Despotate it opens up the possibility of a marriage alliance with rather fascinating long-term implications, in the form of Gian Galeazzo Visconti's daughter Valentina. while the short-term geopolitical implications of a friendly power in northern Italy cannot be discounted for the Despotate, the minor stipulation in her dowery, when she married Louis of Orleans IOTL, and presumably Alexandros's grandson ITTL provides a far more interesting long-term possibility. I speak of course of the clause that stipulated that in the absence of male heirs, Valentina and her descendants would inherit the Visconti dominions. Which is the casus belli on which her grandson Louis XII of France claimed the Duchy of Milan and embarked on the Italian Wars, presuming that the despotate (or rather the empire, as most of us expect it to turn into at some point in the next century) isn't tied up in other conflicts(a big if I know) and able to press its claim you have a viable foundation to bring most if not all of Italy under their control. Especially if they keep pushing that united Greco-Roman identity that seems to have been gaining traction in the despotate over the last few decades.

Food for the thought,

frankly a Visconti marriage would do wonders for the lascarids. It would make the Lascarids a lot more accepted within the European community, and allow the Lascarids to dictate who gets on the throne of the Visconti if the family dies out. It'd be cool if the Montferrats get on the Iron throne if the Visconti gets the iron crown.

Well, @Laskaris, you really keep me guessing. For a good while I thought that the Vatatzes would go for Constantinopel, but I am leaning more into the possibility that they will let the Palaiologos dynasty fall and errecting a new empire after them. Whatever will happen, I think it will be good

Frankly we know that the Lascarids will stay in Syracuse for quite a bit, but I think they still should conquer Constantinople. The City is way too important for the security of the balkans, and also allow the Lascarids to push into the Black Sea and interact with Trebizond and kartvelia and have access to the Black Sea trade.

I do see the Lascarids letting the ERE fall though, especially as the Turks become stronger and stronger in the Balkans.

 

[Xenophonte]

Currently the pretender is locked in a prison so it'd be a bit hard to move against (in otl) maybe Lascarid agents mount a prison break or something, as Joanna funded the original battle idk if things would go similar to otl too.

You are right, but, shouldn't be so hard, if after being imprisoned there a bit more than a decade, he managed to escape from the Castle, either by his own means or with help from inside presumably from islanders sympathetic to his cause...

 

[Quinkana]

You are right, but, shouldn't be so hard, if after being imprisoned there a bit more than a decade, he managed to escape from the Castle, either by his own means or with help from inside presumably from islanders sympathetic to his cause...

It should be possible, but he still waited ten years, which is quite a while...

I do think its possible, they just need to ensure that Aragon isn't looking when they do it.

 

[galileo-034]

IIRC, at this date, and if not butterflied, the king of Aragon has taken possession of the Island (along with the Counties of Cerdanya and Roussillon) and defeated the ousted monarch reconquest attempt killing him in the Battle of Llucmajor. So, I'd suppose that if the Despotate would ever needed to stir troubles for Argon or pay back them,.. Then, I'd guess that financing the heirs in the exile means to make effective their claims to the throne of Mallorca, would be the more easy and effective way to do so...

Currently the pretender is locked in a prison so it'd be a bit hard to move against (in otl) maybe Lascarid agents mount a prison break or something, as Joanna funded the original battle idk if things would go similar to otl too.

Given the circumstances in which the battle happened, I'd think it more likely it has been butterflied. Not only the chances James III and Joanna meet in Avignon and make common cause are reduced since the TTL marriage of Joanna and Louis of Taranto has been less 'controversial' in spite of Andrew's murder; then, being fully engaged against the Lascarids, there is no fleet James III could rent or be lent to reconquer his kingdom, so I'd say both he and his son are still free, counting their days in the relative safety of Montpellier, their last fief which he would not have to sell to fund an invasion he cannot launch.

Yet, now there is that war with Genoa, and I don't see James III not trying to try something. He'd need to find the ships and money for them. Genoa is hard pressed at the moment. And the Lascarids, unless they get openly into the war on Genoa's side, I don't see why they'd be taxing even more their over indebted treasury for that venture.
On the other hand, Theodore has just demobilized half his fleet, and many crews might enjoy gaining some easy coin as mercenaries, if James III can pay for it (not unlike Vignoso mercenary galleys early in the war); and Theodore could both help Genoa indirectly while maintaining naval strength available at someone's else expense. Wait, how much did he sell Montpellier to the French IOTL ?

 

[Vince]

I do see the Lascarids letting the ERE fall though, especially as the Turks become stronger and stronger in the Balkans.

I just can't see the Turks establishing themselves in the Balkans as long as the Lascarid navy can cut them off in the Aegean and isolate any foothold they have.

 

[Whiteshore]

I just can't see the Turks establishing themselves in the Balkans as long as the Lascarid navy can cut them off in the Aegean and isolate any foothold they have.

And on that note, the Timurids smashing up the Ottomans more thoroughly than OTL without a strong foothold in Rumelia wouldn’t really surprise me.

 

[Valin Arcadius]

I just can't see the Turks establishing themselves in the Balkans as long as the Lascarid navy can cut them off in the Aegean and isolate any foothold they have.

Classic EU4 Stratigy.

 

[Vince]

Classic EU4 Stratigy.

Oh I wish to play the Lascarids in EU4 MEIOU.

 

[Quinkana]

Given the circumstances in which the battle happened, I'd think it more likely it has been butterflied. Not only the chances James III and Joanna meet in Avignon and make common cause are reduced since the TTL marriage of Joanna and Louis of Taranto has been less 'controversial' in spite of Andrew's murder; then, being fully engaged against the Lascarids, there is no fleet James III could rent or be lent to reconquer his kingdom, so I'd say both he and his son are still free, counting their days in the relative safety of Montpellier, their last fief which he would not have to sell to fund an invasion he cannot launch.

Yet, now there is that war with Genoa, and I don't see James III not trying to try something. He'd need to find the ships and money for them. Genoa is hard pressed at the moment. And the Lascarids, unless they get openly into the war on Genoa's side, I don't see why they'd be taxing even more their over indebted treasury for that venture.
On the other hand, Theodore has just demobilized half his fleet, and many crews might enjoy gaining some easy coin as mercenaries, if James III can pay for it (not unlike Vignoso mercenary galleys early in the war); and Theodore could both help Genoa indirectly while maintaining naval strength available at someone's else expense. Wait, how much did he sell Montpellier to the French IOTL ?

Tbf I could see Genoa directly attack if they get James of Majorca to fight for them, and it would be a lot harder for james iv of Aragon to fight that. It would drain Aragonese attention back to the western med and give the genoans breathing room.

Lascarid participation is more about how the Lascarids join in, as Aragon and Venice both have reasons to want to restrict Lascarid power. Maybe we see Venetians and Aragonese underestimate Lascarid resolve and attack.

I just can't see the Turks establishing themselves in the Balkans as long as the Lascarid navy can cut them off in the Aegean and isolate any foothold they have.

That is true. But even if that happens, will the Lascarids not just conquer the ERE? They're literally more powerful than the ERE at this point, and reuniting the Empire as one would give the Lascarids more legitimacy even if they stay in Syracuse.

And on that note, the Timurids smashing up the Ottomans more thoroughly than OTL without a strong foothold in Rumelia wouldn’t really surprise me.

Yeah I defo see the Timurids becoming the main power in the ME in the long term, and it'd be cool asf if they manage to hold onto Anatolia, where they stretch from Anatolia to India.