The eagle's left head

[galileo-034]

Now, Alexios is getting very old I surmise. He has survived two Lascarid Despots and is now serving under a third. Will he make it to serve under a fourth ?
He is a giant. The man has been leading the Despotate armies from one victory to another for the past forty years now...

 

[Andristan]

Another old Roman tradition is usurpation, and if Theodore goes down soon, maybe we get a usurper to claim the despotate with ERE backing, but my main point is that with the succession kinda in the air as it were, the realm is gonna be rather unstable, especially if little Alex rolls poorly and gets the plague and dies.

 

[galileo-034]

Another old Roman tradition is usurpation, and if Theodore goes down soon, maybe we get a usurper to claim the despotate with ERE backing, but my main point is that with the succession kinda in the air as it were, the realm is gonna be rather unstable, especially if little Alex rolls poorly and gets the plague and dies.

Usurpation usually happens within a context of social, political and military instability, when the ruler is incompetent on top of it.
So far, the despotate has had 56 years of stable, steady handed, competent, governance. Alexandros and both his sons have been competent. Theodore, even with the whole Adrienne affair, has proven to be a capable administrator and military commander.

Even if Alex exits early, there are clearly a pool of competent people around to take the mantle up, and there is no inner crisis that would foster a climate of wannabe usurpers.
After Alexandros the Younger, due to their family ties with the Vatatzes, Alexios Philantropenos and his line stand to inherit the Lascarid realm; and after forty years spent to mold the Lascarid military according to his vision, and training its cadres, there is little question whether or not they would support Michael (Alexios' son) claim, and his descendance after him.
I don't believe Alexandros the Elder was short-sighted enough to not consider the possibility of Ioannis childless marriage endangering his work and make a proviso for his half-brother Alexios and his line inheriting the despotate if neither Ioannis nor Theodoros had heirs, and if such dispositions had been taken by Alexandros, I suspect they would have been renewed by Ioannis, and in an era where infant mortality was a thing even in the nobility, it's probable he would have kept and updated it even after Alexandros the Younger's birth, and Theodoros has little reason to change it either. If Theodoros ever has a daughter, it's probable he would marry her to a son of Michael to solidify that legitimacy (since it does not seem Alexandros the Elder had a daughter to marry to Michael himself).

 

[JosefBelz]

Yeah, one cannot underestimate just how much inheritance and lineage mattered for the long term planning of a state. With the level of shown competence in the Lascarid ruling strata, I cannot imagine them not planning for every eventuality. It would, in my opinion, go against their demonstrated characterization.

On the matter of Philantropenos, I'd expect his lineage to be intricately linked to the Despotic one. Cousins growing up as brothers, familial bonds and dynastic ties would be kind of a given if there were enough daughters. Though due to lacking the latter, we may have to settle for the first two.

The idea of Alexandros the Younger doing a funni with Joanna of Naples would be endlessly amusing and such a fun thing to read. Kinda going into too many things going well for the Despotate, though. Regardless, with a track record of stability, peace, good management and expansionism, I don't really see a crisis coming with an early death of Theodore. Though who knows, a Time of Troubles is always an untimely death away.

 

[Quinkana]

Not likely. For as important Athens' potential and place is, the political center of gravity is still in Sicily, closer to the Angevin overlords of Naples. Sicily remains the core of the Despotate.

I meant it as 'the balance of power shifting to Greece' instead while Sicily is still very much part of the empire which allows the Lascarids to tax people and make money off of them.

So, now he is dead, with no heir of his body, who gets Achaia? it was the dowry of his wife, if I recall correctly. Does Robert move against his loyal southern vassal try to reclaim his sister/cousin(?)'s dowry and give it to another noble? What does Maria herself do, return to her family's Neapolitan court, hang out with her husband's family, re-marry? This could be the implosion of the Vatatzes miracle, especially if Robert wants Achaia back and Theodore refuses to give it up.

Tbf Alexandros ii kinda is Ioannis' heir originally so you either believe that Alexandros ii takes it all or you kick the Lascarids out, which is very hard to do considering how entrenched the Lascarids already are at this point.

The idea of Alexandros the Younger doing a funni with Joanna of Naples would be endlessly amusing and such a fun thing to read. Kinda going into too many things going well for the Despotate, though. Regardless, with a track record of stability, peace, good management and expansionism, I don't really see a crisis coming with an early death of Theodore. Though who knows, a Time of Troubles is always an untimely death away.

I think it'd be something that would actually be a detriment to the Lascarids. Why tie yourself to a rapidly failing state when you can focus on the falling ere (if things go as per otl)?

Also Louis the great is a more important ally that the Lascarids can't afford to piss off (and seriously a marriage between a daughter of Louis and Alexandros would be better) considering that other than Benevento and Aquila the Lascarids wouldn't want much (they could claim the whole thing due to prior claims but otherwise it's pointless).

 

[Quinkana]

Or some prominent officer of the Lascarid army, say a scion of either Philantropenos/Tarchaneiotes or Asen families, could be proclaimed despot by their men, in good old Roman fashion, and be backed up by most of the civil aristocracy, or the merchant communities of Messina, Monemvasia and Chios, who would have much to lose from the status quo evaporating.
I think that we are past that point where the Despotate has ceased just being the Lascarids' thing and has taken a life of its own.

EDIT: Here, the imperial government in Constantinople is just not credible enough: simply put, the Despotate is, anachronistically, outgunning the empire by a large margin. It's difficult contemplating an empire that could just be the Despotate's vassal if the Despots hadn't had more pressing matters, suddenly absorbing the Lascarid realm, when it should be the other way around.

EDIT 2: I cited Philantropenos and Asen because they featured prominently.
Wiki says Alexios had a son Michael, who became general, and Andronikos Asen, who has passed into Lascarid employment and conquered Phocis for them, had two sons Manuel and John, also military commanders. I suppose each three will be of the generation trained by Alexios' to shape the officer corps of the Lascarid military and succeed him.

Tbf I think the Lascarids would be able to pull from the sons of Philantropenos or other noble families in the region (any local hellenised Sicilian officers?) to build legitimacy from them.

Frankly the Lascarids must be pretty popular to the common Greek peasant in the Balkans. They gave been reversing centuries of frankokratia and being the only long standing Greek state in southern Italy. I think they would want them to be the next Roman empire by taking over what Andronikos iii is ruling rn (not to mention stuff like proper economic policies makes a huge difference).

 

[galileo-034]

I meant it as 'the balance of power shifting to Greece' instead while Sicily is still very much part of the empire which allows the Lascarids to tax people and make money off of them.

Which can't happen as long as the Angevins rule in Naples and half of Sicily, and before have signifcantly expanded further eastwards (ie direct control of Constantinople and a good portion of western Anatolia, an opportunity that won't arise before the Timurid invasion, so mid 15th century at best). The Ionian sea is the the core of the Lascarid realm, at the crossroads of communication lines between Sicily, Calabria, and Greece, and with all the trade routes it encompasses. Syracuse is bound to remain the capital as long as the Ionian sea remains the core of the Despotate.
Athens only start to make sense if that core moves east; for the time being, it's just going to be the regional/secondary capital of Lascarid Greece.

Also Louis the great is a more important ally that the Lascarids can't afford to piss off (and seriously a marriage between a daughter of Louis and Alexandros would be better) considering that other than Benevento and Aquila the Lascarids wouldn't want much (they could claim the whole thing due to prior claims but otherwise it's pointless).

Not as if they did think about avoiding to piss off the Serbs back in 1317.
The same reasoning Ioannis applied back then might as well apply to the Hungarians.
No common border (the Serbs and the Byzantines stand between them and Lascarid Greece), and not much of a navy (my understanding is they otherwise relied on Venetians, with whom they at times disputed control of Dalmatia) to threaten the Lascarids.
Without benefit of hinsight, there is nothing that make the Hungarians any worth caring about as an ally or an enemy for the Lascarids. The Serb threat is not yet a thing, not even yet the Lascarids' (again, Byzantine Macedonia and Thessaly stand between Skopje and Larisa).
For the time being, those the Lascarids do bother about, that affect their interest in one way or another : the Angevins of Naples, the Hospitalers, Genoa and Venice, Aragon, Constantinople, the Turkish beyliks on the Ionian coast. And that's pretty much it for the time being I'd say.

Frankly the Lascarids must be pretty popular to the common Greek peasant in the Balkans. They gave been reversing centuries of frankokratia

That sounds like way more than the 128 years from the sack of Constantinople to the surrender of Larisa...

Besides, there are still the Angevin holdings in southern Epirus/Aetolia/Arcanania.

 

[galileo-034]

I think it'd be something that would actually be a detriment to the Lascarids.

It certainly would 'complicate' things a bit.
Theodore's rescue of Adrienne didn't have any 'big' consequence (well, if we don't count their conquest of Byzantine Morea because of Andronikos II's reaction).
But an affair with Joanna, involving a state directly bordering the Despotate, having a claim over it as overlords... Plus vengeful Hungarian Angevins, opportunistic Venetians and Serbs lurking in the shadows...

But then again, Paris eloping with the queen of Sparta and bringing all of Greece's furor behind them was hardly the best thing to happen to Troy.
We might not have had a medieval Illiad with the rescue of Adrienne, but I just want to say there is another opportunity with Alexandros and Joanna. Only that here, the Lascarids can actually stand to their foes and hope to win.

 

[X Oristos]

By the way, one of the Byzantine aristocrats that I guess would have moved to Syracuse, could have been John Tarchaneiotes. In OTL he became one of the laders of the lascarid/arsenite party, even though he was a nephew of Michael VIII. He is the uncle of both Alexios and Alexandros' wife. It would make sense to have acoompanied his niece to Syracuse when Andronikos came to power and let her go. Or he may have followed Alexios in 1295. I don't know if he had any children, but if so, the House of Tarchaneiotes/Philanthropenos could be an extensive one after almost 4 decades.

 

[Valin Arcadius]

Can we get a family tree for the Lascarids, so we can get a clearer picture of how at risk they are of going exinct.

 

[Avrorrange]

By the way, did the families of Alexandros I‘s nieces(daughters of Theodore II) bother to immigrate to the Two Sicilies? A number of them didn’t marry too highly and I suspect Alexandros would have welcomed them given he needed as many kinsman as possible.

 

[Lascaris]

A few comments can be made.
With the fall of Orsini Epirus & Aetolia, it seems the Frankokratia is well and truly dead. What is left ? Lusignan Cyprus, Hospitaler Rhodes, and then the possessions of Genoa and Venice ? Theodore and Andronikos have well and truly partitioned Greece between themselves.

And the Angevin holdings in western Greece of course.

Would be Theodore I, Despot of the Two Sicilies. Theodore has precedence over his son.

That's correct.

Keep in mind that IOTL Nikephoros managed to come back and restore Epirus, and considering how this TL has been developing so far, the same could happen here.

The problem is that there is no more room for expansion and easy successes for the ERE. Epirus has been conquered, the south is under the control of a troublesome vassal and the northern neighbours are too strong. The empire can enjoy a few years of peace and reform but then what?

Then either one of its neightbours will feel strong enough to attack it or the empire will feel strong enough to attack. If all goes well internally of course.

Also where did Peter go? Is he in Robert's or in the court of the Aragonese rn?

As shown in the last entry... Albania.

Hmm, the hundred years war commences as per otl.

This is a Greek/Sicilian TL...

Jesus Ioannis dying like that is extremely unfortunate, but Theodore becoming the despot for a bit before his son is interesting. Theodore probably would be leading the despotate in Athens instead, and his focus would be on the Balkans and not on Sicily, especially as he attempts to rebuild the devastated lands he had taken (before the black death, but still).

Theodore was born in 1290. If he lives to 70 he would be ruling to 1360...

Not likely. For as important Athens' potential and place is, the political center of gravity is still in Sicily, closer to the Angevin overlords of Naples. Sicily remains the core of the Despotate.


Then I guess we'll arrive to the question of Alexandros the Younger's bride sooner than later.
As you said, only Ioannis had any claim to Greece in the eyes of the Angevins, through his wife Maria's rights. But it's not like the Angevins can simply reclaim Greece from the Lascarids, and they simply don't have the resources for it.

That is a potential problem obviously. Particularly since we are in the era western dynastic rulers took such things seriously. But by the same token it doesn't necessarily translate to immediately beginning a war. Edward III and Philip VI are an obvious example here...

And since you said Charles had three daughters (did I read right ?), instead of the two OTL (Maria was born posthumously, so I guess the third is an ATL daughter born in the early 1330s), that offers a face saving solution to both sides, to have Alexandros marrying one of Joanna's sisters and through her maintain Lascarid rights over Greece.

Maybe but that wouldn't necessarily be a solution. Why? Because Charles is not the only member of the house of Anjou here. His aunt was given as dowry the claim to the principality of Achaea that Charles II had conveniently stripped off Isabella of Villeardouin. So Maria has a claim here. His OTHER aunt is Catherine of Courtenay with wife of the late Philip I of Taranto. Who so happens to be titular Latin empress of Constantinople. And thus technically claims... all of the lands outside Peloponnese the Vatatzes brothers went and conquered and of course to be suzerain of the principality of Achaea as well. And Catherine aside from having her own influential court and lands in Naples also happens to have an elder brother... a certain Philip VI king of France.

So, now he is dead, with no heir of his body, who gets Achaia? it was the dowry of his wife, if I recall correctly. Does Robert move against his loyal southern vassal try to reclaim his sister/cousin(?)'s dowry and give it to another noble? What does Maria herself do, return to her family's Neapolitan court, hang out with her husband's family, re-marry? This could be the implosion of the Vatatzes miracle, especially if Robert wants Achaia back and Theodore refuses to give it up.

Robert or some of his relatives will likely want Achaea back. Good luck prying it out of Theodore without a war and winning said war.

We already read about Robert's reaction to the whole affair when he learned of Alexandros' birth, and that was pragmatic enough: they waited so far, they would wait a little bit further, so in essence, just wait the Lascarids out.

Robert was by all account very capable. How he treats Theodore now remains to be seen.

If the Lascarids die out, the ERE will probably just walk into the Peloponnese and say MY LAND. The locals will probably agree. The Angevins essentially have no legitimacy amongst the population of Achaea. Even their claims over the Latins of the region was dubious. The Angevins might have a bit more luck in Southern Italy and Sicily, but I suspect the local Greeks will just tell them to screw themselves.

The local Greeks were empowered for the first time in decades if not a century under Alexander. OTOH they are the majority only in parts of Lascarid Italy.

EDIT 2: I cited Philantropenos and Asen because they featured prominently.

Asen is back to Constantinople his son in law is Kantakouzenos after all...

Wiki says Alexios had a son Michael, who became general, and Andronikos Asen, who has passed into Lascarid employment and conquered Phocis for them, had two sons Manuel and John, also military commanders. I suppose each three will be of the generation trained by Alexios' to shape the officer corps of the Lascarid military and succeed him.

Michael has shown up already commanding Lascarid forces I believe.

If Theodoros ever has a daughter, it's probable he would marry her to a son of Michael to solidify that legitimacy (since it does not seem Alexandros the Elder had a daughter to marry to Michael himself).

There are techical issues here. Michael and Theodore are first cousins. Their children would be second cousins. Sixth degree relatives. The orthodox church technically prohibits marriages up to the seventh degree. Now the church did tend to turn a blind eye for second cousin marriages at the village level, but for royals would require a dispensation, famously or infamously the marriage pact between Michael IX and Thamar of Epirus was scuppered because the patriarch had objections due to consaginuity and Andronikos II did not press him to give a dispensation...

Yeah, one cannot underestimate just how much inheritance and lineage mattered for the long term planning of a state.

The 100 years war just start on such grounds...

 

[emperor joe]

That is true..my grandfather married his second cousin way back in the mid1940s and the church didn't bat an eye... Anyhow we Cypriots are already a bit inbred so a little more wouldn't hurt a little... But nowadays the church requires a DNA test if the marriage is between two Cypriots

 

[Serpent]

That is true..my grandfather married his second cousin way back in the mid1940s and the church didn't bat an eye... Anyhow we Cypriots are already a bit inbred so a little more wouldn't hurt a little... But nowadays the church requires a DNA test if the marriage is between two Cypriots

Didn't know that lol, imagine trying to marry and finding out that you're relatives with your girl...

We don't have that here in Greece

 

[galileo-034]

There are techical issues here. Michael and Theodore are first cousins. Their children would be second cousins. Sixth degree relatives. The orthodox church technically prohibits marriages up to the seventh degree. Now the church did tend to turn a blind eye for second cousin marriages at the village level, but for royals would require a dispensation, famously or infamously the marriage pact between Michael IX and Thamar of Epirus was scuppered because the patriarch had objections due to consaginuity and Andronikos II did not press him to give a dispensation...

Aren't the Lascarids supposed to be "Catholics" (that old thing about Michael VIII and the council of Lyon if I remember correctly)? And the bishop of Syracuse is still a Basilian, right? So, that would be a matter for the Pope to decide.
Then, how far apart again were Joanna and Louis of Taranto in the family tree ? Or Joanna and Andrew ? ^^

Maybe but that wouldn't necessarily be a solution. Why? Because Charles is not the only member of the house of Anjou here. His aunt was given as dowry the claim to the principality of Achaea that Charles II had conveniently stripped off Isabella of Villeardouin. So Maria has a claim here. His OTHER aunt is Catherine of Courtenay with wife of the late Philip I of Taranto. Who so happens to be titular Latin empress of Constantinople. And thus technically claims... all of the lands outside Peloponnese the Vatatzes brothers went and conquered and of course to be suzerain of the principality of Achaea as well. And Catherine aside from having her own influential court and lands in Naples also happens to have an elder brother... a certain Philip VI king of France.

Oh, that sounds ominous.

But with what's coming between France and England, I'm not sure Catherine's ties will be of great help, except for some meddling by the Pope perhaps... Past that, that would be claim against claim. For now, Catherine's claim is mostly an empty, pipe dream, as empty as her claim to the Latin Imperial title, and it will remain so unless she has the full support of Naples for a war against the Lascarids, which I'm certain neither Robert nor Charles will desire.

If Joanna still maries Louis after Andrew's murder though... But then, that will put the Lascarids on the side opposite Joanna's, in alliance with the Hungarians.

 

[emperor joe]

Didn't know that lol, imagine trying to marry and finding out that you're relatives with your girl...

We don't have that here in Greece

The DNA is for the thalassemia stigma not if you are related or not

 

[Avrorrange]

So, who would young Alexandros marry? I am guessing Joanna’s younger sister Maria now?That is the easiest way to resolve the Achaea problem, but also another powder keg.

 

[galileo-034]

So, who would young Alexandros marry? I am guessing Joanna’s younger sister Maria now?That is the easiest way to resolve the Achaea problem, but also another powder keg.

I'd say more probably the third sister that wasn't born OTL. Lascaris usually keeps dynastic butterflies to a minimum and Maria's marriages were pretty consequential IOTL.

 

[Lascaris]

So, who would young Alexandros marry? I am guessing Joanna’s younger sister Maria now?That is the easiest way to resolve the Achaea problem, but also another powder keg.

There are at least three royal candidates I have so far thought of. An Angevin match is just one of the three. 😇

 

[galileo-034]

There are at least three royal candidates I have so far thought of. An Angevin match is just one of the three. 😇

Oh ... Bets are off folks x)

Just curious, does 'royal' cover Byzantine princesses?