The Divergence of Destinies: A TL

PROLOUGE

The Tsar sat in his grand office at the Winter Palace in Saint Petersburg. The Palace had been built by Peter the Great. Since 1732, it was the seat the Russian monarchs, but now it looked like that was all about to change. France had reached a common peace with Germany in 1917, which cost France Morocco, Madagascar and its claims to Alsace-Lorraine. Britain had been inactive in the war against Germany since France’s peace and Italy’s successful drive into Austria. Russia had been left to face the brunt of the German offensive into Poland. While the Russians had managed a successful counter-offensive in the summer of 1917, it was quickly beaten back because of the inability by the Russian Imperial Army to consolidate its gains. Warsaw had fallen in September and the Centrals looked well on their way to capturing Minsk. Was it really all worth it? Nicholas didn’t want war. He has said so to his cousin, Willy, the Kaiser of Germany. In the telegrams just before the beginning of the war, Nicholas had stipulated that he wished for Germany to assist Russia in ending this “ignoble war [against] a weak country”. Kaiser Wilhelm replied that he too “[wished] that peace should be maintained”. However, he still defended Austria, which shocked Nicholas. “Beg you to explain this divergency!” the Tsar exclaimed. In the following telegram, the Tsar stated how he relied upon Germany as “mediator” and to place “pressure on Austria to come to an understanding with us [Russia]”. In the Kaiser’s reply, it is clear that he was now fed up with Nicholas and stated that “the whole weight of the war of the decision lies solely on your shoulders now, who have to bear the responsibility for Peace or War.” It is this statement that would form the basis for the Treaty of Weimer signed in June 1919.

Nicholas now faced disaster. Russia was now collapsing around him. On October 24, the Russian Imperial Navy was preparing to engage a German fleet in the Baltic Sea, just off the coast of the Swedish island of Gotland. The naval order of October 24 was what was to become the trigger for the revolt that would become known as the Riga mutiny. During the night of 29-30 October, sailors anchored in Tallinn refused to obey orders and revolted against the orders of the Tsar. This was followed on November 3 by a mutiny by the sailors in Riga. The sailors began chanting the slogan “Peace and Bread”, demanding the release of political prisoners, the end of the war and the improvement of food provisions. The revolution had begun. Russians began protesting in Helsinki, Moscow, Minsk, Kiev, Sevastopol and Rostov. Nikolai Golitsyn, Chairman of the Council of Ministers and Mikhail Rodzianko, Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Empire, agreed that a social revolution needed to be prevented and that order must be upheld at all costs. Golitsyn noted that Rodzianko had declared that “if the Tsar does not abdicate, the social revolution is unavoidable. But I do not want it, indeed I hate it like sin”. Whether or not Rodzianko meant it is another matter.
Tsar Nicholas now sat in his office at the Winter Palace with the notice of abdication in front of him. He clutched his quill in hand and signed his signature at the bottom of the paper that read;

I herewith renounce for all time claims to the Russian Imperial throne.

At the same time I release all officials of the Russian Empire, as well as all officers, non-commissioned officers and men of the navy and of the Russian army, from the oath of fidelity which they tendered to me as their Emperor and Commander-in-Chief.

I expect of them that until the re-establishment of order in the Russian Empire they shall render assistance to those in actual power in Russia, in protecting the Russian people from the threatening dangers of anarchy, famine, and foreign rule.

Nicholas raised his quill from the paper. It was over. The largest and most sprawling empire in the whole of the world, was gone. Nicholas stood, handed the deceleration to Golitsyn and walked from the room. He embraced his wife, and children. Golitsyn informed the disgraced Tsar that he had arranged for transport to Denmark where they could seek refuge.

The Russian Empire had ceased to exist.
 
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Just to keep things straight

France: signed peace with Germany, seem very lenient (probably add Luxemburg and some demilitarizated zone)

UK: formally at war but not actively fighting in the continent (probably thinking to exchange the captured colonies for Belgium, if not she will keep it...plus Congo)

Italy: succeed in advanced into Austria, so no Caporetto due to the Russian counteroffensive (maybe signed a separate peace with Germany with Berlin giving up piece of Austria so to end that particulary nuissance.)

Russia: fucked up
 
THE COST OF PEACE: PART ONE

The iconic photograph of Berlin Peace Conference is that of Kaiser Wilhelm and Emperor Karl flanked by their Chancellors, Prince Max of Baden and Heinrich Lammasch, respectively. Also seen in this photo are King Ferdinand I of Romania, Tsar Boris III of Bulgaria standing just to the left of Prince Max. Also in attendance at the opening of the Berlin Peace Conference were Prime Minister David Lloyd-George of Great Britain, Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau of France, Prime Minister Vittorio Orlando of Italy, King Peter I of Serbia, Prime Minister Hara Takashi of Japan, and King Nicholas I of Montenegro, though for most of them it was only a ceremonious invite at the request of Prince Max to show respect to their recently defeated enemies. The foreign ministers of the respective listed countries spent the rest of the Berlin Conference trying to convince the German and Austrian governments to be less harsh to the defeated Russian state, now mockingly referred to as the ‘Ryazan Republic’, and to try and achieve their own territorial interests. Serbia and Montenegro had been invited to represent the Slavic minorities now launched into insurgency to gain their independence from Austria-Hungary. The French Foreign Minister, Stéphen Pichon and British Foreign Secretary, Lord Curzon, were the most vocal of the observer diplomats. There were several issues raised on the agenda for the Berlin Conference. Germany wished to impose further punishments upon France, break Belgium, make demands from Britain and most importantly, dismember what had ceased to be the Russian Empire. Austria wanted territorial concessions from Serbia and Montenegro, bring about Italy’s humiliation and put down the Slavic revolts. Bulgaria sought to impose demands upon Greece while Romania wished to take Bessarabia from Russia. But at the same time the observer delegates wanted to sway the Centrals from disassembling Russia, breaking the Balkans and giving grief to the Italians.

In the opening days, the issue of reparations was raised. The Austrians demanded that Russia bear the brunt of the payment, by so too the Italians should cough up money for their invasion of Tyrollia. The Germans too called for reparations. Prince Max had promised the Reichstag that he would secure the equivalent of $300 billion in reparations from the Russians. He stated that “the issue of reparations should be dealt with as soon as possible, not just to compensate the victims for losses … it is what is right”. Wilhelm stated that the “Austrians, Bulgarians, Romanians and the Germans, all want to be compensated for the war”. Pichon stood and turned to face the Kaiser and demanded that Germany compensate the French and the Belgians; “the war has brought innumerable destruction to northern France and Belgium, and the Germans have the audacity to demand money from France and Belgium! Germany should be made to compensate France and Belgium!” Here too, Lord Curzon called for Britain to receive material payment from Germany for the deaths of it soldiers. The Italian foreign minister, Sidney Sonnino, was advised not to demand reparations. Lord Curzon meet with Kaiser Wilhelm sometime between 20 and 23 January to discuss the issue of reparations. The Kaiser stated that while he “regretted the losses suffered by Britain”, he would be unable to convince the Reichstag into giving Britain anything, for it was perceived in Germany that Britain had lost the war. Lord Curzon relayed the content of this meeting via telegraph to Lloyd-George. In it he stated that “while the Kaiser was courteous, he was clearly immovable from his stance”. Lloyd-George needed some kind of assurance that Germany would accept Britain’s position, so he suggested in his reply to Curzon that “in order to avoid another brutal naval war, Germany make an agreement to limit their dreadnaught possession”. In his diary, the Kaiser notes that after his second meeting with Curzon, that he was prepared to limit Germany’s naval capabilities on condition that the British support whatever the Germans decide to do about Russia. Curzon eventually had the Kaiser modify this to the question of Poland only. Just when it seemed that Germany and Britain was to reach an agreement, Peter of Serbia approached Curzon to push the Germans to place pressure on Austria-Hungary to discuss the establishment of “a untied Slavic state”, as Curzon stated in his message back to London. Curzon raised the question of the Slavs when he meet with Prince Max. Prince Max, personally, found the Austrian Emperor very irritating and supported the idea merely to spite him. The conclusion of the Yugoslavia Question would happen in March. After much talking between diplomats, it was decided that Russia would be liable to pay nearly 80% of all reparations demanded by the Treaty. To this, Germany claimed 50% as they had lead the brunt of the Russian front, Austria-Hungary was entitled to 35%, Bulgaria 10% and Romania 5%. Austria then claimed 100% of reparations from Italy. It was also decided that France was able to claim no more than $50 million in reparations from Germany – in effect taking a small cut of payment from Russia – while Britain was excluded entirely.

With the reparations question settled, the Kaiser moved on to putting more demands on France. Prince Max approached Curzon to demand that Britain remain neutral in what Germany was to demand. Curzon stated to Boris of Bulgaria that, “the Germans have some plan for France, and I am uncomfortable with this”. On February 18, Kaiser Wilhelm read off a list of demands he was to impose on France. These include “a demilitarised zone in Franche-Comte and Champagne-Ardenne, the recognition of the German integration of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and restriction of the French armed forces”. Ferdinand of Romania noted in his diary that “[the Kaiser] looked very pleased with himself after reading off his demands of France. He looked equally pleased to see the shocked expression of [Pichon] afterwards”. Pichon was understandable mad. He had negotiated the peace with Germany in 1917, and had managed to get out of that fairly lightly – losing only two of its colonies – but this was too far for Pichon. The next morning he departed Berlin in protest to the Kaiser’s demand. Curzon is reported to have rolled his eyes and said “[Pichon] is a fool who doesn’t understand that Germany is in the dominant position and that France has no standing”. Pichon then received a telegram from Curzon when he stopped in Frankfurt reading that “your exit from the conference shows that France considers itself equal to Germany in post-war Europe. I regret to inform you that your position is forever compromised after the Peace of 1917, and instead of hoping for demands to be made, you should compromise. France can survive without military in Champagne, and Luxembourg”. It is clear that Curzon had since given up on trying to push Germany into going easy on Russia, having stated that “the mad man cannot be stopped from dismembering the Russians”. Pichon returned to Berlin on February 24 and met with Prince Max that same evening, saying that “France can accept the demilitarised zone, on the condition that Germany maintain a DMZ in the Rhineland for 15 years at the same time”. This, Prince Max believed, was acceptable to Germany and so took this proposal to the Kaiser. However, the Kaiser refused to allow for the establishment of a DMZ in the Rhineland. In order to circumvent the Kaiser, Prince Max took the French proposal to the Reichstag the next morning, who agreed to establish a DMZ on the condition the French back down about Russia. By the beginning of March, the British and French had accepted that saving Russia was no longer the priority and protecting themselves was the major factor to deal with. Russia, from this point was doomed.

Between March and late April, the Conference would deal with the rest of minor issues. Belgium would surrender two-thirds of Belgian Congo and transfer Rwanda and Burundi to Germany. The northern section of Belgian Congo was to be occupied by Britain and France, while the south-eastern section was to go to Germany. Belgium would keep the south-western section. Serbia was granted Bosnia and Croatia to establish Yugoslavia in exchange for Serbian admission of complacency in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Emperor Karl was unhappy about surrendering Croatia and Serbia, but was due compensated from Russia. The Austrians backed down as the rising tensions of ethnic minorities in the Empire lead to the reform of the structure in 1920, and the plans were being drawn up in early 1919. The Austrian parliament was glad to be rid of the Slavs. Montenegro was forced into annexation to Yugoslavia. Greece was to surrender Greek Macedonia to Bulgaria, Russia was to give Bessarabia to Romania, Japan was denied any territory as were Australia and New Zealand, Portugal surrendered Mozambique.
 
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