The Decade of Disaster: What if the Franco-Prussian War Escalated? (relaunched)
- Thread starter Disraeli2004
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IMO, within yours framework there is not too much difference (from the Russian perspective) between "small" and "greater" Germany and whatever are potential disagreements they are easy to fix, especially as long as Bismarck maintains his indifference to the Balkans and Ottoman Empire in general, which are the Russian primary interest (however stupid). Why would Bismarck suddenly develop an interest to that region, which is truly irrelevant to Germany in pretty much each and every aspect?
Russia (as in OTL) repudiates the Paris Treaty but in your TL pleasing Britain is not an important factor of the Russian foreign policy so rebuilding of the Black Sea fleet can start in 1872.
In the mid-1870s when the Balkan crisis happens (in OTL) Russia would expect a friendly neutrality from Germany (and perhaps supply of the new artillery pieces which in OTL went to the Ottomans, even if too late and too few) and that's pretty much it. Austria is still under German occupation and Hungary under Russian (honestly, I did not quite get why would AII be interested but its is your TL
) so its agreement is not required (ditto for the case of it being incorporated into Germany) and that's pretty much it. The same goes for the prolonged OTL international talks preceding the War of 1878-78: with Austria out of the picture and Britain pretty much internationally isolated even Gorchakov would not be spending few years trying to build up "European concert". Bismarck should be happy because Russian engagement on the East keeps it from paying too much attention to the West and the Russian version of "Drang Nach Osten" (expansion to the CA and Far East) is to Germany's benefit. Where is a ground for a serious conflict?I also find it very interesting that we've killed the Louisoix branch of the House of Bonaparte almost in one quick motion.
Germany does have interests in Russia's eastern european holdings - Ukraine, for instance - and if they stay allied with Russia, they're going to need to find somewhere else to put those interests. Which means they'll start aiming in the direction of the Balkans anyway, even if not that far.
Well Gladstone managed to screw this up. Put humanitarian treatment in the Rheinland ahead of blocking a unapposable Russo-Prussian domaniance of Europe, publically showed his unwillingness to fight in front of the nation he was meant to deter and did the politcal equivalent of screaming insults down a megaphone at the Ottomans to keep destroying any other option he had.
Still I'm not sure where this is going now. Prussia(Well likely Greater Germany) has no real need or want to expand into Russia beyond maybe more of Poland but they will likely be busy digesting their gains for decades so but if a mute point there.
Well either way Germany will be more of an industrial powerhouse, Austria-Hungary is pretty much a non-entity/puppet state and Russia has no more meaningful opposition when they look towards the Balkans and Causacus.
EDIT: Even if Germany and Russia comes to blows to defeat the other, unless every other European jumps on to crush the victor I'm unsure how a German or Russian dominated Europe will be avoided.
Still I'm not sure where this is going now. Prussia(Well likely Greater Germany) has no real need or want to expand into Russia beyond maybe more of Poland but they will likely be busy digesting their gains for decades so but if a mute point there.
Well either way Germany will be more of an industrial powerhouse, Austria-Hungary is pretty much a non-entity/puppet state and Russia has no more meaningful opposition when they look towards the Balkans and Causacus.
EDIT: Even if Germany and Russia comes to blows to defeat the other, unless every other European jumps on to crush the victor I'm unsure how a German or Russian dominated Europe will be avoided.
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I dunno, because it seems like either way, the alliance with Russia isn't going to last given that Germany would have interests in the east than anywhere else. They have no reason to go to the Balkans, no reason to antagonize Switzerland or to antagonize the Low Countries (which would piss off Britain by the by). Plus they've gotten what they wanted out of Denmark and has no reason to go after Scandinavia anymore. That being said, as Lord Terra stated, Germany will need time to digest their new conquests, especially if Austria and Bohemia join Greater Germany, so while I could see relations souring, I don't see Germany looking to antagonize Russia too much in the immediate future.
At this point, I'm 100% confident that Gladstone's political career is over before it truly reached its epoch. Which admittedly, is a big deal given that he was practically the leader of the Liberals for a generation IOTL. Of course I'm curious as to see how the Libs will recover from this.
I'm not even sure what a Russian dominated Europe would look like, compared to a German one (all I have to do is boot up Kaiserreich, lol) but at the very least, the Balkans and Hungary will be predominantly Russian in influence, though I doubt Hungary will become an outright puppet state unless again, Germany annexes Austria and Bohemia.
Well, honestly the biggest winner is Italy here, while all the side bleed and spent a lot of money and blood with France Empire falling and A-H going the way of the dood, she had conquered Rome and part of the irredente still hold by Wien (how much of that we will see but just Trieste and probably Trento to be added to Rome is an enourmous shoot of popularity for the goverment) very cheaply, at least if you compare it with the other nation.
The weakness of France and the chaos due to the consequences of the war will probably tempt the Italians to increase their influence in Tunisia and even attempt a takeover.
Regarding Dalmatia, well at the time the % of italians was greater than in the aftermath of WWI due to the Hapsburg anti-italian politic having a lot less time to change the situation, said that, they remain a minority in overall Dalmatia, having a majority only in some place like the island of Veglia and the city of Zara, Sebenico, Spalato/Split and Trau so with all the confusion some of this cities can rise and ask annexation to the Kingdom of Italy, Regia Marina can land some soldiers as quick as possible and try to present to the rest of Europe the fait accomplit
The weakness of France and the chaos due to the consequences of the war will probably tempt the Italians to increase their influence in Tunisia and even attempt a takeover.
Regarding Dalmatia, well at the time the % of italians was greater than in the aftermath of WWI due to the Hapsburg anti-italian politic having a lot less time to change the situation, said that, they remain a minority in overall Dalmatia, having a majority only in some place like the island of Veglia and the city of Zara, Sebenico, Spalato/Split and Trau so with all the confusion some of this cities can rise and ask annexation to the Kingdom of Italy, Regia Marina can land some soldiers as quick as possible and try to present to the rest of Europe the fait accomplit
dcharles
Banned
At first I thought that said "British arrogance casual."
Which I guess is a more avant-garde way of saying the same thing.
I could actually see Italy using further chaos in the A-H domains to take Dalmatia, probably eventually siding with whomever that opposes France for Savoy, Nice and Corsica.
While Italy can take military Dalmatia, it's also a question of diplomacy and the conquest of Roma has already caused some controversy, probably less than OTL due to the general situation still going on full annexation spreee...at least without some strong ally
Perhaps so, but I can definitely see Italy, at least for now, positioning its foreign policy to claiming those lands.
In the late XIX there was no German interest in Ukraine, not to mention Poland and Baltic provinces: Germany was quite capable of producing enough food for its population and there was always a possibility to buy more from Russia: within the described scenario Germany may even have a positive trade balance with Russia due to the export of its industrial production.
As for the area of German interests, the main interest and effort would be obviously in keeping France down. An idea that nation can’t survive without expansionism is rather questionable (no offense).
It's not questionable. Given that a lot of countries nowadays have survived without expansionism, that theory is completely debunked.
That being said however, as Kylia said, back then, expansionism and conquests were on a the minds of many, the idea that their countries should be that "empire under the sun" if you were a great power, or if you aimed to achieve national unification (Germany, Italy, Romania, Yugoslavia and even then that one is a bit iffy IMHO) then the only way to achieve it in some people's eyes was by right of conquest. Granted I also find it to also be not entirely the case either even in the 19th century (the Benelux and Scandinavian countries to cite examples)
Did Italy take avantage of the fall of Austria (to take Tirol, Fiume, Istria and Dalmatia) ?
I generally agree with your points but in this specific case we are talking about expansionism at the expense of a very powerful (and pretty much only) major ally and into the territories which had nothing or very little to do with Germany geographically or culturally and had very limited economic value. The Poles and Ukrainians aside, even in the Russian Baltic provinces the German and Germanized population was a minority: the peasants and lower classes in general had been speaking the native languages. To start a major war with a purpose to get more Poles, Ukrainians or Latvians while risking the French attack on the West? How could this pass for a national unification? As an additional factor, the public opinion in Germany has to be reconditioned to switch from an image of a comrade in arms who pretty much saved Germany at the time of crisis (both in 1813 and in 1872) to one of a malicious enemy. Based on what?
As far as the expansionism in general is involved, the fashionable thing at that time were colonial acquisitions regardless of their profitability. The most “logical” (within the contemporary mindset) thing to do for Germany to confirm its greatness would be to do what WII was doing later in OTL: start getting the colonies. In this exciting activities the competitors were Britain and France, not Russia.
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