How long would the USSR have survived if the attempt to overthrow Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991 had succeeded? What role would a hardliner-ruled SU play in today's world?
The Coup Succeeds.
- Thread starter metalstar316
- Start date
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Nothing Sadder in an Alternative History website then people who don’t think an alternative is possible.
I was a University student in 1989 and remember watching the Chinese student protests in Tiananmen Square and other cities in China.
At the time we thought that this was a definitive moment in history, that here was a real popular people’s revolution taking place.
Democracy HAD come to China!
Things didn’t turn out quite that way did they?
Ok, so let’s run with the Coup succeeding and Gorbachev being “retired”, much as Nikita Khrushchev was after the Cuban missile crisis.
You have an infinite number of possibilities.
You could have another very conservative but highly corrupt leader like Leonid Brezhnev gaining power, in which case the Soviet Union would probably blunder along as before, slowly but steadily declining. The Soviet leaders relying on brute force to stay in power without the fig leaf of legitimacy.
Or you could have a Russian Deng Xiaoping. A technocrat that is economically liberal but politicly conservative.
There are a couple options for you.
I was a University student in 1989 and remember watching the Chinese student protests in Tiananmen Square and other cities in China.
At the time we thought that this was a definitive moment in history, that here was a real popular people’s revolution taking place.
Democracy HAD come to China!
Things didn’t turn out quite that way did they?
Ok, so let’s run with the Coup succeeding and Gorbachev being “retired”, much as Nikita Khrushchev was after the Cuban missile crisis.
You have an infinite number of possibilities.
You could have another very conservative but highly corrupt leader like Leonid Brezhnev gaining power, in which case the Soviet Union would probably blunder along as before, slowly but steadily declining. The Soviet leaders relying on brute force to stay in power without the fig leaf of legitimacy.
Or you could have a Russian Deng Xiaoping. A technocrat that is economically liberal but politicly conservative.
There are a couple options for you.
If most of the Russian military was against the coup to me the most likely result of it suceeding are another Russian civil war. I read an old book called Hot Spots that has such a scenario with Red coup supportors going up against Green Yeltsin supportors. A Russian civil war would be nasty and proabably mean more breakaways and a lot less feelings of happiness at all the velvet revolutions but I doubt the Reds could win such a war.
By the summer of 1991 the USSR was pretty much doomed, although it still wasn't apparent to everyone. If you want a successful coup that maintained the USSR it would have to have happened prior to 1989
But assuming the 1991 coup goes ahead and Yeltsin's and the Russian people's protests are crushed the most likely result is civil war resulting in not only the independence of the various soviet republics but also quite possible the disintergration of russia itself
The coup plotters just didn't have any support outside a small hard line circle. In essence the difference between Tiananman Square in 1989 and the protests against the Coup in 1991 was that in 1989 the PLA fully supported the Chinese communist party where as in 1991 significant parts of the Red Army, including elements sent to crush Yeltsin supported Yeltsin and the Russian People instead of the coup plotters. The moment russian soldiers sent to crush the protesters instead turned their tanks around and offered them for the defence of the protesters the coup had failed. The only question then was whether the plotters would recognise this and surrender (as they did in OTL) or whether they fight on and cause a civil war
They could always be Upper Volta with nukes so it have to fall due to inside pressure. And that is a interesting process. The way I see it, people ask for as much as they are allowed. When the crackdown comes, they get crushed. (As a consequence, I don't really take the word from people living in an dictatorship supporting their goveerment.)
So how long until the opposition bounce back? Some form of will bounce back quickly of course but if the coup-makers acctually manage to pull of the coup, they would have/need better support from the guys with the guns. And hence, they may manage to keep power to present day.
Of course, I dubt they have the power to do somethig good with the economy and want to avoid rocking the boat.
So how long until the opposition bounce back? Some form of will bounce back quickly of course but if the coup-makers acctually manage to pull of the coup, they would have/need better support from the guys with the guns. And hence, they may manage to keep power to present day.
Of course, I dubt they have the power to do somethig good with the economy and want to avoid rocking the boat.