The causes and effects of a Cyprus Conflict in the Mid 60s?

[Time Enough]

So in the immediate aftermath of Cyprus’s independence, in 1963 - 64 inter communal violence would flare up. In Turkey, the minority government of Ismet Inonu was currently in a coalition with the Nationalist, Republican Villagers Nation Party and under consist threat of coups decided to start planning an invasion. This would be stopped by Lyndon Johnson sending a letter to Inonu due to worry’s of a conflict starting between two NATO allies.

Meanwhile Greece was beginning to enter political turmoil due tensions between the new King Constantine II and Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou who’s hodge podge liberal party of the Centre Union was seeing tensions emerge between different factions, particularly the more conservative factions and Georgios son Andreas who was a Socialist. The King pondered and planned several different Coup ideas during the period of 65 to 67 when the Colonels Couped the government just before the 67’ election.

So in this period of turmoil and uncertainty, it’s surprising that the Cyprus conflict didn’t flare up into full on invasion/war. There are certainly the figures who could have taken advantage of it.

So here is my proposition to you, how do you think a possible Greek-Turkish conflict over Cyprus could have occurred in the Mid 60s and additionally the aftermath of such a conflict on both local and internationally?

 

[Lascaris]

Papandreou managed to slip, with tacit American support a Greek infantry division in the island. Meanwhile Turkey in both major crises in 1964 and 1967 had no landing fleet, it start being built after the crises by Demirel's government and no airborne capability to speak off Turkey had in 1974 a two battalion strong airborne brigade and a force of helicopters but these are again a post 1964 development. So the Turkish air force can bomb Cyprus at its hearts content but on the ground you have the Cypriot national guard plus that regular Greek division facing off TMT, the Turkish Forces Cyprus 650 men and whatever landing force Turkey can create from scratch, plans were I understand to take Bosporus ferries and barges move them to Mersina and load them with men and just the movement would take about 10 days.

So my verdict? Assuming no all out war between Greece and Turkey, the Greeks have a large advantage in numbers and firepower on the ground, they are actually much stronger in absolute terms in 1964-67 than they were in 1974 with more men, more artillery and nearly three times the armor (including relatively modern M-47s instead of barely moving T-34s as in 1974). The Turkish air force is not sufficient to overcome that extend of an advantage, and won't even operate unopposed unlike again 1974. Greeks win this one.