The C.S.A. Collapses - Now What?

Nevermore

I've been seeing many threads on AH.com that suggest that if the C.S.A. were to potentially win the American Civil War, that they'd be quite likely to devolve into a third world nation (though when that is seems to vary, if it's thought at all) at one point; people seem to be rather polarized as to an independent American South's potential to hold itself together - it's either going to do somewhat well, or it's going to fall apart.

So, let's say that the C.S.A. does collapse at some point (perhaps they get an early victory, say, in 1861 to 1862, so national identity isn't as strong). What parts of the former C.S.A. (the original 11 states as we can't really be sure if they'd be expansionists) are likely to secede? Texas seems to always be a very popular one especially if they discover their vast reserves of oil which would make them very wealthy in the right context.

Might we get a rump C.S.A. from this dissolution, too? Perhaps some states still choosing to band together? Would the United States run to grab some states, perhaps propping up some puppets if they weren't considered salvageable? The idea of a Republic of Florida is something I've heard before, which might be a bit interesting... :p
 
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Wendell

I don't think that Virginia would be certain to remain part of the CSA. It always was the northern state of the Rebels, and perhaps the U.S. government manipulates Richmond to eventually achieve the reentry of the old dominion into the Union.
 

MerryPrankster

I'm brainstorming for a steampunk novel right now, so I've been putting a lot of thought into this...

The Upper South seceded because they didn't want to join the Federal war against the states that had already seceded.

They might rejoin the Union at some later date if the whole slavery-planter thing doesn't work out.

Tennessee is a biggie--the Confederacy had to have an army of occupation in the eastern third of the state to keep them under control.

If the Confederacy tries to milk the Texans' oil wealth too much, they might try to go their own, and based on their size, they might be able to make it stick if Richmond gets violent.
 

Raymann

Banned
MerryPrankster said:
Are there any states along the Gulf besides Lousiana where "Creoles" live in significant numbers?
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Well, I am Creole so I guess I'll answer. :)

Southern Mississippi does as well as Southeast Texas (i.e., Beaumont, TX). Texas would have had a greater Louisiana back then although Mississippi would have had less.

New Orleans remember was the capitol of Louisiana and economic heart of the Deep South. Louisiana leaving the Confederacy would have lead to significant economic pressure for Texas and (to a lesser extent) Mississippi to do so also.
 

Faraday Cage

Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee as the less fervently Confederate upland/Appalachian South would make an interesting association; as would Texas-Louisiana (and I guess Arkansas and Oklahoma territory). That would leave as the core Confederacy Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina.

The Virginia Confederacy would industrialize more quickly (?), the Texas Confederacy would have Louisiana's economic weight along with Texas' room for population expansion (and eventual wealth in petroleum), and the core Confederacy would have king cotton (among other things?).
 

MerryPrankster

Would the upland Confederacy express any interest in rejoining the Union, given it was the least "Fire Eater" of the two regions?

Perhaps they split off, try to rejoin the Union, and are rejected. They form their own confederacy as an interim measure, much like the Republic of Texas did prior to its annexation.
 

Melvin Loh

hmmm, well if all of the different CSA states suddenyl decided they didn't wanna be part of the same club anymore cos they didn't want their states' rights cont'd to be interfered with from Richmond- the broke away to become their own statelets- I think either the North would face the same problem, as many Unionists feared, of the Union being dissolved as other regions (such as the Copperhead Mid-West0 broke away to do their own thing- or alternatively, Washington deciding to covertly entice these ex-CS southern states back into the fold...
 

AmIndHistoryAuthor

Banned
Southern Texas, the Nueces strip, would probably rejoin Mexico if there wasn't a strong military effort to keep it either part of the CSA or a newly independent Texas.

The western panhandle would want to become part of New Mexico (assuming NM hadn't been taken by the CSA). IOTL it took the threat of force and a congressional compromise they didn't care for to make it part of Texas.
 

Faraday Cage

Melvin Loh said:
hmmm, well if all of the different CSA states suddenyl decided they didn't wanna be part of the same club anymore cos they didn't want their states' rights cont'd to be interfered with from Richmond- the broke away to become their own statelets- I think either the North would face the same problem, as many Unionists feared, of the Union being dissolved as other regions (such as the Copperhead Mid-West0 broke away to do their own thing- or alternatively, Washington deciding to covertly entice these ex-CS southern states back into the fold...
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If that happened would the Union slave-states on the border join with the Virginia/Upland Confederacy?
 

Tyr

I'd think some sort of 'Negro Republic' would be a strong possibility somewhere. With heavy British and US support of course.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
I think it depends on the exact circumstances of the breakup.

Texas is an obvious one to become an independent republic (again), perhaps including Oklahoma.

Virginia I think would most likely go it alone: it's big enough to survive as an independent state even with the USA looming over it, and I don't think it would be quick to rejoin the USA thanks to the whole West Virginia thing. Maybe if the two were reunified a la Germany...

As for the rest of the CSA, it depends if they've got around to abolishing slavery or not. If so, they might well break up into independent states, some of which might try to rejoin the USA (Kentucky, if it's part of the CSA in this generic scenario, is the obvious choice). On the other hand, if slavery still exists, they might stick together as a rump CSA - or a looser confederacy of independent states - to help preserve themselves against what might be sanctions or other international disapproval directed at them, somewhat like apartheid South Africa.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Tyr said:
I'd think some sort of 'Negro Republic' would be a strong possibility somewhere. With heavy British and US support of course.
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I don't know. Blacks in the south had strong regional identities which I think makes it less likely that all the blacks would be rounded up and placed in a single segregated state while all the whites within that region would be evicted. After all, in OTL a lot of those blacks who had escaped via the Underground Railroad to Canada came straight back after the Civil War - partly of course because they thought Reconstruction would be lasting, but when you think about it it's a huge risk, and it's mainly because they had familial and historical connexions to the local area.
 

Wendell

Thande said:
I think it depends on the exact circumstances of the breakup.

Texas is an obvious one to become an independent republic (again), perhaps including Oklahoma.

Virginia I think would most likely go it alone: it's big enough to survive as an independent state even with the USA looming over it, and I don't think it would be quick to rejoin the USA thanks to the whole West Virginia thing. Maybe if the two were reunified a la Germany...
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Virginia may also be relative easy for the Union to pick off militarily were it to leave the CSA.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Wendell said:
It is across the river from Washington, and would restore full U.S. control over the Chesapeake Bay.
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A point, but if the Virginians don't want to rejoin, trying to rule over them would be a hassle. I tend to think under those circumstances the US would invade, quickly defeat Virginia, and then impose a peace settlement just ceding the strategic areas to them (perhaps adjoining them to West Virginia) and demilitarising Virginia as a puppet, as that avoids most of the awkward issues.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Thande said:
Yes, but by this point, would they even want it?
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I think so. Look at East-West Germany; North-South Korea; etc.

I grant you Britain resigned itself to losing the American colonies in short order, but this seems a different order.
 

Tyr

Thande said:
Texas is an obvious one to become an independent republic (again), perhaps including Oklahoma.
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Oklahoma is a interesting one.
I'm fond of the idea of a independant United Tribes of America (or some such)
Oklahoma was Indian territory, the 5 civilized tribes....they would like to be alone if it were feasable I'd think.


Thande said:
I don't know. Blacks in the south had strong regional identities which I think makes it less likely that all the blacks would be rounded up and placed in a single segregated state while all the whites within that region would be evicted. After all, in OTL a lot of those blacks who had escaped via the Underground Railroad to Canada came straight back after the Civil War - partly of course because they thought Reconstruction would be lasting, but when you think about it it's a huge risk, and it's mainly because they had familial and historical connexions to the local area.
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Putting it that way it does sound rather bad.
But I was thinking more a area which is very majority black is set apart as a southern black,freed slave homeland ala Israel.
All blacks don't have to go there of course.
 
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