The Bucolic War (172 - 175 AD) succeeds in restoring an independent Egypt

[Sarthak]

In 172 AD, tensions over taxation and the increasing imposition of Latin and Greek over traditional Egyptian spheres of life led to the Bucolic War led by Isidorus, a Native Egyptian Priest. Whilst most records on this war are sparse, the records that do remain paint a panicked Rome, as this revolt nearly kicked Rome out of Egypt, conquering most of the Romance Province of Egypt barring the Sinai and Alexandria and its outskirts. It was only the shrewd military campaign led by Avidus Cassidius of Syria that managed to stamp down on the rebellion and according to Dio Cassius basically all of rural Egypt outside of the highways and major cities in Egypt continued to be run by the remnants of this revolt until ~185 AD despite having been defeated in battle a decade prior.

So what if against all the odds, Isidorus managed to kick the Romans out and retain Egypt's independence being crowned the new Pharaoh in Memphis? What would be the consequences?

 

[Marc Anthony]

One way to achieve this would be to to have Marcu Aurelius die early on in the Marcomanic wars or of the plague thus leading to a succession crisis.

Anyway, the result would be more nativist revolts across the empire

 

[Mildtryth]

In 172 AD, tensions over taxation and the increasing imposition of Latin and Greek over traditional Egyptian spheres of life led to the Bucolic War led by Isidorus, a Native Egyptian Priest. Whilst most records on this war are sparse, the records that do remain paint a panicked Rome, as this revolt nearly kicked Rome out of Egypt, conquering most of the Romance Province of Egypt barring the Sinai and Alexandria and its outskirts. It was only the shrewd military campaign led by Avidus Cassidius of Syria that managed to stamp down on the rebellion and according to Dio Cassius basically all of rural Egypt outside of the highways and major cities in Egypt continued to be run by the remnants of this revolt until ~185 AD despite having been defeated in battle a decade prior.

So what if against all the odds, Isidorus managed to kick the Romans out and retain Egypt's independence being crowned the new Pharaoh in Memphis? What would be the consequences?

I don't think their prospects will be too good in the medium-long term - they'll still be surrounded by Rome on two sides and Rome will definitely try to take it back once they get themselves together. they can't simply just let a challenge like that go unanswered or unavenged, and that's not even getting into the disruption on Rome's grain supply that's sure to happen.

 

[Sarufiyyun]

I doubt that Isiodorus would have much success maintaining Egypt's independence in the long-run. Rome is still at the height of its power and there's a likely chance that any ambitious Roman emperor or general will re-take it.

But that's not interesting and I personally like interesting scenarios, even if albeit implausible. We have to keep in mind that Egypt by the time of a successful Isidoran "restoration" would have spent five centuries under the rule of the Argeads, Ptolemies and Romans. This is a Hellenized Egypt and not a restoration of the ancient Egypt from the days of King Tut. Even if he is crowned Pharaoh in Memphis, his centre of power will most likely be in Alexandria. The Roman imperial cult and its temples would be re-dedicated to the Pharaoh and Serapis and Isis to a much lesser degree. One reform I do see is ending the formalized status and privilege that the citizens of Alexandria enjoyed over the rest of Egypt such as being exempt from the poll tax. Since Egypt is likely to be in ruins after a successful revolt, Isiodorus and his successor would need to milk as much money from the Hellenized Egyptian social elites. Of course, to make sure they and the native Egyptian priesthood have SOME sort of say in the restored kingdom's affairs, I'm sure installing some sort of Egyptian gerousia/boule/senate is in the cards.

 

[Oracle of Sobek 𓆋]

Assuming everything goes right, Rome is riven by internal strife for a generation or two, and Isidorid (?) Egypt prospers...

Like @Sarufiyyun pointed out, Isidorid Egypt is part of the broader Hellenized world. That said, it still has a robust native culture at this point... The Egyptian priests are still literate in hieroglyphs (Isidorus will likely assume the throne as "Petiese" /pꜣ-dꞽ-ꜣst/ - the Egyptian semantic-match to the Greek name); the Greeks will still speak their language, which will remain prestigious. But what we in OTL call "Old Coptic" (so, Coptic - but with a few extra Demotic-derived letters) is almost certainly going to be the primary administrative language of the new Pharaonic regime... It will be the vehicle for an Egyptian literary revival, both for native Egyptian religion and philosophy AND for Egyptian Christianity...

Christianity is a rising cultural force in this Egypt, and the Mediterranean world more broadly. This POD arrives just in time to seriously derail the life-and-times of Origen, which could have massive ramifications for the development of orthodox Christianity as a whole. This also holds true for the Desert Fathers, whose impact beyond Egypt's borders may now be far more muted.
I don't think the Isidorid regime would stem the rising Christian tide within Egypt. In fact, if Christians are seen as disruptive elements within Roman society, small-scale deportation and migration to Egypt - which may well be friendly to Christians - could manifest. Isidorid Egypt could easily beat Armenia to the punch in becoming the first officially Christian state, should it be politically expedient or demographically inevitable. However, with Egyptian culture experiencing a simultaneous renaissance (and the aforementioned disruptions to early Christian history more broadly), there's a good chance this Egyptian Christianity turns out more Gnostic... Imagine an Isidorid Pharaoh calling a Council of Šenesēt (Chenoboskion/Nag-Hammadi), and signing off on a Coptic Bible that could include things like the Books of Enoch, Gospel of Thomas, Apocryphon of John, Gospel of the Egyptians, Apocalypse of Adam, "the Thunder, Perfect Mind"... That's the sort of weirdness we could be in for.

 

[Raferty]

I don't see how the Romans can allow this to stand - the political security of Rome was dependent on Egyptian grain. I would imagine even had Isidorus succeeded in driving out local Roman forces and repelled initial attempts to defeat them, the Romans would try again repeatedly until successful

 

[Sarthak]

Assuming everything goes right, Rome is riven by internal strife for a generation or two, and Isidorid (?) Egypt prospers...

Like @Sarufiyyun pointed out, Isidorid Egypt is part of the broader Hellenized world. That said, it still has a robust native culture at this point... The Egyptian priests are still literate in hieroglyphs (Isidorus will likely assume the throne as "Petiese" /pꜣ-dꞽ-ꜣst/ - the Egyptian semantic-match to the Greek name); the Greeks will still speak their language, which will remain prestigious. But what we in OTL call "Old Coptic" (so, Coptic - but with a few extra Demotic-derived letters) is almost certainly going to be the primary administrative language of the new Pharaonic regime... It will be the vehicle for a Egyptian literary revival, both for native Egyptian religion and philosophy AND for Egyptian Christianity...

Christianity is a rising cultural force in this Egypt, and the Mediterranean world more broadly. This POD arrives just in time to seriously derail the life-and-times of Origen, which could have massive ramifications for the development of orthodox Christianity as a whole. This also holds true for the Desert Fathers, whose impact beyond Egypt's borders may now be far more muted.
I don't think the Isidorid regime would stem the rising Christian tide within Egypt. In fact, if Christians are seen as disruptive elements within Roman society, small-scale deportation and migration to Egypt - which may well be friendly to Christians - could manifest. Isidorid Egypt could easily beat Armenia to the punch in becoming the first officially Christian state, should it be politically expedient or demographically inevitable. However, with Egyptian culture experiencing a simultaneous renaissance (and the aforementioned disruptions to early Christian history more broadly), there's a good chance this Egyptian Christianity turns out more Gnostic... Imagine an Isidorid Pharaoh calling a Council of Šenesēt (Chenoboskion/Nag-Hammadi), and signing off on a Coptic Bible that could include things like the Books of Enoch, Gospel of Thomas, Apocryphon of John, Gospel of the Egyptians, Apocalypse of Adam, "the Thunder, Perfect Mind"... That's the sort of weirdness we could be in for.

It is perhaps a good time to mention that Isidorus threatened to expel and did expel the minuscule number of Christians from all lands he conquered and was the reason why Alexandria's demographics suddenly had a large and noticeable Christian minority from the previously barely noticeable one which led to Alexandria organically becoming a Christian majority in 300 AD. Anyway, Christianity did not take off in Egypt outside of Alexandria until the early to mid 200 ADs until Pope Heraclas of Alexandria came around. In 172 AD, outside of Alexandria, Christianity was basically absent in Egypt. Without the support of the other patriarchates, as it got historically due to being in the same country and Isidorus and his supporter's hardline pro-Cult of Ra/Aten stances, it's hard to believe Christianity would flourish in Egypt. Especially because Isidorus had allied with the Egyptian Jews who hated the Alexandrian Christians as well.

 

[Oracle of Sobek 𓆋]

It is perhaps a good time to mention that Isidorus threatened to expel and did expel the minuscule number of Christians from all lands he conquered and was the reason why Alexandria's demographics suddenly had a large and noticeable Christian minority from the previously barely noticeable one which led to Alexandria organically becoming a Christian majority in 300 AD. Anyway, Christianity did not take off in Egypt outside of Alexandria until the early to mid 200 ADs until Pope Heraclas of Alexandria came around. In 172 AD, outside of Alexandria, Christianity was basically absent in Egypt. Without the support of the other patriarchates, as it got historically due to being in the same country and Isidorus and his supporter's hardline pro-Cult of Ra/Aten stances, it's hard to believe Christianity would flourish in Egypt. Especially because Isidorus had allied with the Egyptian Jews who hated the Alexandrian Christians as well.

Neat! I was not aware of those details... That said, I stand by the broad strokes of my analysis. Early Christianity proved itself very adaptable and slotted neatly into a lot of Mediterranean theological discourse; it'll be near impossible to keep out of the country if Egypt wants to maintain economic links with the broader Roman/Mediterranean world, and just because Isidorus was hostile to it doesn't mean a successor of his won't change their tune.

 

[Lalli]

I don't see any Egyptian revolt succeeding. Romans were really good and ruthless to crush any such attempt even if it would take time. And even if Egypt manages to secede, Romans would take that back later. Probably only good timing would be during Crisis of the 3rd Century and even then if rest of Roman Empire still manage to return together and stabilise on some degree, it will conquer Egypt back.

 

[Sarthak]

Neat! I was not aware of those details... That said, I stand by the broad strokes of my analysis. Early Christianity proved itself very adaptable and slotted neatly into a lot of Mediterranean theological discourse; it'll be near impossible to keep out of the country if Egypt wants to maintain economic links with the broader Roman/Mediterranean world, and just because Isidorus was hostile to it doesn't mean a successor of his won't change their tune.

I mean not really? With a Point of Divergence starting in 172 AD, it is extremely deterministic to say that Rome would still adopt Christianity, especially considering 125 AD - 215 AD was the weakest Christians ever were inside the Roman Empire societally and influentially before they became the state religion.

 

[walmart]

Any chance of a successful conquest of the Levant ?

 

[Lalli]

Any chance of a successful conquest of the Levant ?

No. Egyptians would are lucky if they got even temporary independence.

 

[Sarthak]

Any chance of a successful conquest of the Levant ?

I would say no. Cyrenaica, which was traditionally considered within the Egyptian sphere of life, and also extremely loose with its loyalty to Rome would be a more realistic option

 

[Sarufiyyun]

Assuming that Rome is unable or incapable of reconquering Egypt because of an accelerated Crisis of the Third Century-esque upheaval, I second the option that Isidoran Egypt would look towards Cyrenaica to conquer. Any resurgent Egyptian state would need to build up a navy and maybe look towards conquering Cyprus and Crete. Maybe the Isidorans would make an alliance with the Parthian ruler Vologases IV.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

So what if against all the odds, Isidorus managed to kick the Romans out and retain Egypt's independence being crowned the new Pharaoh in Memphis? What would be the consequences?

The far more interesting consequences here are what this implies for the Roman Empire, which would need to be experiencing a Third century crisis esque type of upheaval to not be able to put down the revolt (and even then the far more powerful Zenobia was defeated during the Third Century Crisis).

Assuming that Rome is unable or incapable of reconquering Egypt because of an accelerated Crisis of the Third Century-esque upheaval, I second the option that Isidoran Egypt would look towards Cyrenaica to conquer. Any resurgent Egyptian state would need to build up a navy and maybe look towards conquering Cyprus and Crete. Maybe the Isidorans would make an alliance with the Parthian ruler Vologases IV.

Vologases IV is in no position to really do anything to the Romans after losing northern Mesopotamia in the 166 war. We don't really seem to know much about his reign after that, but it was marred by at least a few revolts-I don't really think they're in a position to make nay noise until the late 180s at the earliest, and even then, they're pretty weak-Septimius Severus did not really have much trouble with them. They are basically on their own for 20+ years.