THE BLACK AND THE GRAY

[nikkythegreat]

Somehow Russia lost the least.
Keeping my eye on what would happen in East Asia, now that Japan controls most of the Islands there and also perhaps be the big boy of the pacific while China has the meanest land force in the area.


And I'm also interested with Texas-Confed-Chihuahua.

 

[FleetMac]

Okay, first of all, I gotta say I this ATL is really growing on me. Granted, at times it can seem a tad....far-fetched (although not impossible), but the effort and research you've put into it more than makes up for that fact! I usually don't go for alt-Confederate scenarios due to two reasons;

1) The issues with whether the CSA could survive in the modern world as a functioning state, especially given the economic advantages of the Union during the war, and

2) The fact that every alt-CSA seems to end up turning into a de facto Nazist death camp state, or a Draka clone, or just plain vicious towards African Americans and other non-whites, which I feel is inaccurate and unfairly simplistic.

This, however, seems to break both those molds quite refreshingly, and as a Southerner myself, I must confess to a small degree of satisfaction at seeing Dixie not only survive, but progress and advance as a modern and tolerant state

Anyway, with all the accolades out of the way, a few questions:

1) So would it be fair for one to conclude that, now that Texas is beaten, the Mexican majority will be the ones running the show once the US/CS hands off the reigns? It would seem fair to me, given how much they've suffered thus far, and how much more of them there are than Anglo and black Texans.

2) So now that nuclear weapons have hit the stage in a big way, how exactly will NASATO employ their "atomic shield"? IIRC they are just barely producing viable nuclear weapons, I don't know how they plan to deploy and (theoretically, one would hope) use them at this point.

3) What is the status of Spanish in the Caribbean states, and in Texas' former territories? I understand that the states of OTL's Northern Mexico are now Anglo dominated, but I'm not sure WRT rest of it.

4) Demographically, how is Oklahoma sitting? Is it still a Native American-dominant state, or has that been altered given all the meddling that they've endured since the War of Secession?

5) While one can see the relevant legislation occurring in the USA as in OTL, what's the Confederate stance towards opiate and cannabis legalization? Given the fact that each state would have it's own laws overriding most Confederate ones, would we see a patchwork of different rules regarding their use (medicinal or recreational both)? Or would the temperance movement lead to overall banning of those substances in a manner similar to that of the USA?

and finally,

6) We haven't seen or heard much from South America other than that a few states have joined NASATO...have they just been largely outside the butterfly effects of the POD, or has anything interesting happened down there beyond Guyana joining the CSA?

 

[robertp6165]

Okay, first of all, I gotta say I this ATL is really growing on me. Granted, at times it can seem a tad....far-fetched (although not impossible), but the effort and research you've put into it more than makes up for that fact! I usually don't go for alt-Confederate scenarios due to two reasons;

1) The issues with whether the CSA could survive in the modern world as a functioning state, especially given the economic advantages of the Union during the war, and

2) The fact that every alt-CSA seems to end up turning into a de facto Nazist death camp state, or a Draka clone, or just plain vicious towards African Americans and other non-whites, which I feel is inaccurate and unfairly simplistic.

This, however, seems to break both those molds quite refreshingly, and as a Southerner myself, I must confess to a small degree of satisfaction at seeing Dixie not only survive, but progress and advance as a modern and tolerant state

I'm glad you're enjoying it.

Anyway, with all the accolades out of the way, a few questions:

1) So would it be fair for one to conclude that, now that Texas is beaten, the Mexican majority will be the ones running the show once the US/CS hands off the reigns? It would seem fair to me, given how much they've suffered thus far, and how much more of them there are than Anglo and black Texans.

Well, the number of Mexicans in Texas proper never was a majority. It was only a majority in the Republic of Texas as a whole because it annexed all of Mexico.

In Texas itself (that portion which has been annexed by the Confederacy), whites and blacks still make up a majority if they cooperate. That might change if there is a significant flight of whites and blacks from Texas to Chihuahua following annexation by the Confederacy.

In the territory which became the Republic of Chihuahua, Mexicans originally made up a majority, but after nearly a century of heavy European immigration and Texan colonization, Mexicans no longer form a majority there. This Anglo-Black majority might well increase, again, if there is significant flight from Texas itself, following its annexation by the CSA.

The territory which became the re-established Republic of Mexico, however, was heavily majority-Mexican, and not very much European or Texas immigration into that territory ever occurred due to the constant instability there. So that territory definitely is ruled by Mexicans.

So, depending on how much flight there is from Texas to Chihuahua, Texas might well end up being a Mexican Majority State within the Confederacy, or might secede and be a Mexican-Majority Republic later on.

2) So now that nuclear weapons have hit the stage in a big way, how exactly will NASATO employ their "atomic shield"? IIRC they are just barely producing viable nuclear weapons, I don't know how they plan to deploy and (theoretically, one would hope) use them at this point.

Well, I assume right now they are pretty much in a panic and building nukes as fast as they can. Doctrine for their use is still in the early stages of development. Right now its more a matter of "I have them too, so leave me alone" than anything else.

Eventually something probably along the lines of NORAD...including an early warning system for atomic attack by bombers or missiles, and possibly some sort of ABM system, will come into being.

3) What is the status of Spanish in the Caribbean states, and in Texas' former territories? I understand that the states of OTL's Northern Mexico are now Anglo dominated, but I'm not sure WRT rest of it.

The Confederacy has followed a fairly tolerant policy, based on the States Rights position that the education system and language policy of each State is the State's responsibility rather than the national government's. I imagine that Cuba and Puerto Rico have established systems which recognize Spanish as the first language and English as a second language. But being part of a majority English-speaking country, they would ensure that their education system included mandatory instruction in English, so their citizens would in large part be bi-lingual. But nearly everyone in Cuba and Puerto Rico would still speak Spanish as their first language.

As for Texas, I imagine a much more intolerant policy would have been followed and forced assimilation would have been the rule. In the areas of Texas Proper and Chihuahua, it may well be that very few people still speak Spanish even as a second language by now. In the area that became an independent Mexico once again, the instability there likely prevented large-scale assimilation, and most people there speak Spanish and only Spanish.

4) Demographically, how is Oklahoma sitting? Is it still a Native American-dominant state, or has that been altered given all the meddling that they've endured since the War of Secession?

The legislation by which Oklahoma was admitted to the Confederacy recognized the unique nature of Oklahoma and included provisions to limit white migration to the State (I'll add that as an Additions and Corrections in a future update). So I see it as still majority Native American.

5) While one can see the relevant legislation occurring in the USA as in OTL, what's the Confederate stance towards opiate and cannabis legalization? Given the fact that each state would have it's own laws overriding most Confederate ones, would we see a patchwork of different rules regarding their use (medicinal or recreational both)? Or would the temperance movement lead to overall banning of those substances in a manner similar to that of the USA?

I imagine the patchwork scenario of sometimes conflicting State laws would apply, and the laws might actually be a bit more liberal than in OTL. In OTL the laws largely originated out of white fears about what "blacks hopped up on reefers" might do. In the ATL, the blacks have achieved a higher level of trust within society so the laws might be more liberal as a result.

and finally,

6) We haven't seen or heard much from South America other than that a few states have joined NASATO...have they just been largely outside the butterfly effects of the POD, or has anything interesting happened down there beyond Guyana joining the CSA?

I'll probably do an Additions and Corrections about that.

 

[robertp6165]

Somehow Russia lost the least.

That's true. I think the Pact of Steel Powers are finding themselves somewhat overextended in occupying the territories they took in the Third Great War and the idea of absorbing more territory just didn't appeal to them.

Keeping my eye on what would happen in East Asia, now that Japan controls most of the Islands there and also perhaps be the big boy of the pacific while China has the meanest land force in the area.

And I'm also interested with Texas-Confed-Chihuahua.

True...both of those situations ought to be interesting.

 

[FleetMac]

Well, the number of Mexicans in Texas proper never was a majority. It was only a majority in the Republic of Texas as a whole because it annexed all of Mexico.

In Texas itself (that portion which has been annexed by the Confederacy), whites and blacks still make up a majority if they cooperate. That might change if there is a significant flight of whites and blacks from Texas to Chihuahua following annexation by the Confederacy.

In the territory which became the Republic of Chihuahua, Mexicans originally made up a majority, but after nearly a century of heavy European immigration and Texan colonization, Mexicans no longer form a majority there. This Anglo-Black majority might well increase, again, if there is significant flight from Texas itself, following its annexation by the CSA.

The territory which became the re-established Republic of Mexico, however, was heavily majority-Mexican, and not very much European or Texas immigration into that territory ever occurred due to the constant instability there. So that territory definitely is ruled by Mexicans.

So, depending on how much flight there is from Texas to Chihuahua, Texas might well end up being a Mexican Majority State within the Confederacy, or might secede and be a Mexican-Majority Republic later on.

So just to make sure I understand;

-People of Mexican descent in Texas proper have largely been replaced more by Anglo and Black colonial influx and movement, instead of by the recent anti-Latin pogroms, and further action by the Confederacy may dictate their relative standing there, and

-Chihuahua is a Anglo-Black dominated state sandwiched between Old Texas and the Republic of Mexico, who may end up as a haven for the "old breed" of higher-station people in exile from Texas?

Well, I assume right now they are pretty much in a panic and building nukes as fast as they can. Doctrine for their use is still in the early stages of development. Right now its more a matter of "I have them too, so leave me alone" than anything else.

Eventually something probably along the lines of NORAD...including an early warning system for atomic attack by bombers or missiles, and possibly some sort of ABM system, will come into being.

Fair enough. Even if it's just a cobble-work of old fashioned gravity bombs and large-caliber shells, that's still a deterrent against outside aggression; you may not be able to hit their factories and cities, but you can make any military enterprise on their part into a bloodbath, fast.

On a side note, if you DO work ABM into an alt-NORAD framework at some point, you'll be one of my new favorite people

The Confederacy has followed a fairly tolerant policy, based on the States Rights position that the education system and language policy of each State is the State's responsibility rather than the national government's. I imagine that Cuba and Puerto Rico have established systems which recognize Spanish as the first language and English as a second language. But being part of a majority English-speaking country, they would ensure that their education system included mandatory instruction in English, so their citizens would in large part be bi-lingual. But nearly everyone in Cuba and Puerto Rico would still speak Spanish as their first language.

As for Texas, I imagine a much more intolerant policy would have been followed and forced assimilation would have been the rule. In the areas of Texas Proper and Chihuahua, it may well be that very few people still speak Spanish even as a second language by now. In the area that became an independent Mexico once again, the instability there likely prevented large-scale assimilation, and most people there speak Spanish and only Spanish.

Very interesting. English would IMO end up being a sister tongue in Cuba and Puerto Rico in the long run, but I don't see Spanish ever disappearing either, due to Confederate policy toward states' rights (which this would definitely fall under). Guyana would fall under the same policy too, one would think.

Regarding Texas, you make good points. I would postulate, however, that the Texan Civil War and the Mexican massacres may spark a sort of neo-Chicano movement out of the rebel fronts; whether this means artificial re-adoption of Spanish there, is anyone's guess.

The legislation by which Oklahoma was admitted to the Confederacy recognized the unique nature of Oklahoma and included provisions to limit white migration to the State (I'll add that as an Additions and Corrections in a future update). So I see it as still majority Native American.

I'm starting to see a weird trend here, where the USA gets about the same amount of immigration from Europe as in OTL, but the Confederacy is/has been immensely multi-cultural across race lines; you have a whole state dedicated to Native Americans, several Latino states, one state with a huge East Indian population (Guyana), and blanket acceptance/tolerance of blacks at a relatively higher level than in OTL. Was all of that planned?

I imagine the patchwork scenario of sometimes conflicting State laws would apply, and the laws might actually be a bit more liberal than in OTL. In OTL the laws largely originated out of white fears about what "blacks hopped up on reefers" might do. In the ATL, the blacks have achieved a higher level of trust within society so the laws might be more liberal as a result.

There's also the economic axe-ing of Cannabis-turned-hemp by textile special interest groups (coughRANDOLPHHURSTcoughDUPONTahem), which I don't see playing out in the CSA. Interestingly enough, it was apparently a MAJOR crop in OTL Virginia and Kentucky, so there's an industrial factor at play here too. I won't comment further on its....recreational use, lest I be labeled a stoner

I'll probably do an Additions and Corrections about that.

Looking forward to whatever comes next

 

[Free Lancer]

a question

what happend to the Grant Corollary? was it discarded when Mexico fell?

 

[robertp6165]

So just to make sure I understand;

-People of Mexican descent in Texas proper have largely been replaced more by Anglo and Black colonial influx and movement, instead of by the recent anti-Latin pogroms, and further action by the Confederacy may dictate their relative standing there, and

In Texas proper, the Tejanos or native Mexicans were never more than a small minority. Texas was virtually deserted when Stephen Austin and company showed up in the 1820s...that's why the Mexican government invited them to come in the first place. The Tejanos haven't been replaced...they and their descendants are still there, but still form only a very small minority. While there has been Mexican immigration since the Second Mexican War in 1874 and the conquest of Mexico in 1905, it has been partially countered by European and other white immigration. So even combined with the Tejano population, the total Mexican population in Texas proper is still outnumbered by whites and blacks in combination.

However, under the Confederacy, more tolerant laws will be in effect, and die-hard Texas nationalists and those who just can't abide seeing Mexicans treated decently may well flee Texas to Chihuahua. If enough of them do that, the balance of population may change, allowing a Mexican majority.

-Chihuahua is a Anglo-Black dominated state sandwiched between Old Texas and the Republic of Mexico, who may end up as a haven for the "old breed" of higher-station people in exile from Texas?

Yes, see above.

Fair enough. Even if it's just a cobble-work of old fashioned gravity bombs and large-caliber shells, that's still a deterrent against outside aggression; you may not be able to hit their factories and cities, but you can make any military enterprise on their part into a bloodbath, fast.

On a side note, if you DO work ABM into an alt-NORAD framework at some point, you'll be one of my new favorite people

We'll see.

Very interesting. English would IMO end up being a sister tongue in Cuba and Puerto Rico in the long run, but I don't see Spanish ever disappearing either, due to Confederate policy toward states' rights (which this would definitely fall under). Guyana would fall under the same policy too, one would think.

Yes, Guyana would also enjoy the right to set its own language policy.

Regarding Texas, you make good points. I would postulate, however, that the Texan Civil War and the Mexican massacres may spark a sort of neo-Chicano movement out of the rebel fronts; whether this means artificial re-adoption of Spanish there, is anyone's guess.

That could happen too.

I'm starting to see a weird trend here, where the USA gets about the same amount of immigration from Europe as in OTL, but the Confederacy is/has been immensely multi-cultural across race lines; you have a whole state dedicated to Native Americans, several Latino states, one state with a huge East Indian population (Guyana), and blanket acceptance/tolerance of blacks at a relatively higher level than in OTL. Was all of that planned?

Well, no, actually. It just all sort of fell into place as a logical progression from the granting of rights to the black population, plus the Confederate belief in State's Rights, which would tend to protect groups which are minorities nationally, but majorities in certain areas.

There's also the economic axe-ing of Cannabis-turned-hemp by textile special interest groups (coughRANDOLPHHURSTcoughDUPONTahem), which I don't see playing out in the CSA. Interestingly enough, it was apparently a MAJOR crop in OTL Virginia and Kentucky, so there's an industrial factor at play here too. I won't comment further on its....recreational use, lest I be labeled a stoner

That's all quite true.

 

[robertp6165]

a question

what happend to the Grant Corollary? was it discarded when Mexico fell?

Basically Texas challenged it when it invaded Mexico in 1905. It being soon after the Great War, the people of the Union were still in shock and were in no position to enforce it. And once Texas had Mexico in its hands, it was a fait accompli, and the Union just never bothered to try to enforce it later. It became, essentially, a dead letter.

 

[FleetMac]

In Texas proper, the Tejanos or native Mexicans were never more than a small minority. Texas was virtually deserted when Stephen Austin and company showed up in the 1820s...that's why the Mexican government invited them to come in the first place. The Tejanos haven't been replaced...they and their descendants are still there, but still form only a very small minority. While there has been Mexican immigration since the Second Mexican War in 1874 and the conquest of Mexico in 1905, it has been partially countered by European and other white immigration. So even combined with the Tejano population, the total Mexican population in Texas proper is still outnumbered by whites and blacks in combination.

However, under the Confederacy, more tolerant laws will be in effect, and die-hard Texas nationalists and those who just can't abide seeing Mexicans treated decently may well flee Texas to Chihuahua. If enough of them do that, the balance of population may change, allowing a Mexican majority.

I see...I keep forgetting that the huge numbers of Texans of Mexican origin, one way or another, have mostly been recent arrivals. What's especially embarrassing here is my mother-in-law's side of the family comes from over four generations of "Tejanos". Just goes to show when ones assumes, eh?

 

[FleetMac]

Basically Texas challenged it when it invaded Mexico in 1905. It being soon after the Great War, the people of the Union were still in shock and were in no position to enforce it. And once Texas had Mexico in its hands, it was a fait accompli, and the Union just never bothered to try to enforce it later. It became, essentially, a dead letter.

I doubt it helps that there's been so much relative activity in North America vice OTL, and so many more high-priority issues (e.g. war fronts opening up with Texas, skirmishes and hostilities with British Canada, etc.), that I doubt trying to enforce something like the Grant Corollary, or even the Monroe Doctrine itself, is something that could be easily accomplished.