The Big Mistake

[Syphon]

The shock of the Nazi invasion had shaken Stalin.
The Red airforce had been shattered and by August Stalin was desperate for assistance.
He had previously arranged the Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact now he went one better.
He had Molotov negotiate a military assistance plan With Japan where the Soviets would secretly assist them with their war if the Japanese assisted with theirs.

What Stalin didn't know was Japanese plans for a war with America.

Once the treaty was signed and japanese Zeros were being swapped for T-34's and resources Stalin forgot about his treaty and concentrated on the war with the Nazis.

What he didn't know was an archivist in the Foreign Ministry was a white Russian spy who stole the treaty and had it smuggled to his brethren in the USA.

Before the USA had recovered from the shock of of the attack on Pearl Harbor the White Russians produce the Soviet Japanese Military assistance treaty and got it published in the New york time and Washington Post.

When Hitler hears of this treaty he goes ballistic and refuses to declare war on the USA.

So what effect does this have on the war.
One would assume that the Yanks would not be pleased with the existence of this treaty and it coming out would essentially kill lend lease to the Soviet Union.

lets discuss what effects this would have on WWII?

 

[jayel]

lets discuss what effects this would have on WWII?

interesting idea, one of the better what ifs I might say, will watch where this goes

 

[MattII]

May I point out that this probably butterflies Pearl Harbour? If the Japanese can get fuel from the USSR they won't need to go hunting for it in SEA, which means they won't need to attack the USA, and can concentrate on China. Also, Stalin isn't sending the Japanese any equipment, he needs it too much himself, oil-for-aircraft seems much more plausible. Also, such a treaty would mean Stalin could move the troops from Siberia west sooner because he'd know the Japanese wouldn't attack.

Gives you a nice 3-sided conflict, America-Britain vs. Germany-Italy vs. USSR-Japan. This would be a particular bonus to the Japanese as it meant they could perhaps learn from the Russians about real industrialisation, without the OTL experience of getting the stuffing beaten out of them.

 

[Syphon]

Gives you a nice 3-sided conflict, America-Britain vs. Germany-Italy vs. USSR-Japan. This would be a particular bonus to the Japanese as it meant they could perhaps learn from the Russians about real industrialisation, without the OTL experience of getting the stuffing beaten out of them.

You are assuming that America declares war on Germany.
I don't see that happening short term.
FDR doesn't have the numbers yet.
Being at war with japan and depending on the "hotheads" in congress possibly the USSR I can't see the USA entering the European war in the short term.
Again the Hotheads might want to punish the USSR indirectly and give lend lease to the Nazis or at least remove the embargoes.

This will put GB in a difficult position.

What if US sent its flagged ships escorted by the US navy to french ports with trade goods?
If they started doing this you could see USW cancelled by the Nazis.
Does GB try to prevent these ships making port possibly adding to their enemy list or do they make peace with Germany and seize the french colonies and protect their pacific possessions?

 

[MattII]

Depends whether the Japan-USSR treaty happens before or after Pearl Harbour, if it's before (or before the fleet sets out) then it's quite possible that Pearl doesn't happen, because Japan no longer needs to head south to get its oil, whereas I doubt Stalin would go for it after. Of course, if it gets out Hitler might go and declare war on Japan.

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Depends whether the Japan-USSR treaty happens before or after Pearl Harbour, if it's before (or before the fleet sets out) then it's quite possible that Pearl doesn't happen, because Japan no longer needs to head south to get its oil, whereas I doubt Stalin would go for it after. Of course, if it gets out Hitler might go and declare war on Japan.

By the time Pearl Harbor happened the Red Army had already halted the German advance and slowly pushing them away from Moscow. The strategic picture might still be grim, but at this point, Stalin (who should be way over his initial panic that led to the hypothetical USSR-Japan treaty) knows he'll need American Lend-Lease goodies more than Japanese planes.

Besides, the OP explicitly said it took place some time during (or after) August 1941...

Marc A

 

[JRScott]

The problem with this is the timing.

First off if it was a joint Japan-Russian military defense treaty then the moment Hitler invades Russia Japan declares war on the Axis powers. This is when everyone would learn of the treaty. There is no way Japan is signing it after Hitler invades it has to be before.

Russia pulls its support from the communists in China and other southeast asia countries giving Japan free reign over them.

Japan's navy will not be hitting Pearl Harbor, Japan needs oil even though its getting some from Russia right now that need has not diminished. It will invade the Axis sympathizing middle east holdings (Iraq, Iran that area). Given the firepower of the Japanese Navy and the British containing the German/Italian navy Japan will have little trouble acquiring the middle east. Probably land around Basra.

Churchill would probably be cursing and seeing that FDR's hands are tied by Congress he's going to push for peace with Russia-Japan. In this he'll agree to give Japan Iraq/Iran, he doesn't have the forces to fight there anyway. He offers them in exchange for Japan recognizing Britain's claims to India and Australia. He also probably deals away Burma. As part of a coalition Britain has a chance, without it the Empire will die. In the deal Russia probably gets to the middle of Poland in Europe and Britain gets western europe.

So you have the Allies -----Britain-Russia-Japan vs the Axis---Germany-Italy. Germany's lack of investment in naval forces is going to cost it big. After its landing in Iraq/Iran Japanese units can strike into German held Africa and also help funnel supplies to Russia.

Instead of the US supplied weapons of war Britain gets Japanese planes in this alliance. (as does Russia).

Congress stops trade with Britain and Russia due to the neutrality acts much like they did for Japan when it invaded China.

The United States will probably seek to increase trade with Central and South America as most of it is neutral territory int he war, as well as with Spain.

Hitler will try to get Spain to join the Axis again. Doubtful Spain joins.

It's going to be a bloody and long campaign probably lasting longer than OTL WWII, however America probably will not enter the war unless someone attacks her, FDR will take every opportunity to make sure we are ready for war, having ships built and ready.

Without the USA pounding Japan, then the Japanese-British forces will take northern africa and begin the invasion of Italy by way of Sicily. This will help relieve pressure on Russia. Japan's factories and facilites are relatively safe from Germany and there is no 5th Column in Japan.

In this alignment Japan takes the place of America.

Germany falls it goes to Britain, Norway becomes free again, as does France. Britain also retains much of its holdings in West Africa, North Africa.

China falls to Japan, as does all of the southeast asia not controlled by Britain (Vietnam, Laos, Burma, China, Korea, etc, as well as Iran and Iraq and east Africa).

Russia gets Turkey, Jordan, the Holy Land down to Egypt.

The Philippines are probably nervous about being an independent nation surrounded by the Empire of Japan so its possible they change course and officially join the United States or oddly enough petition to become a protectorate of the Empire of Japan.

So surviving the war

Empire of Japan
Union of Soviet Socialist Republic
British Empire
United States of America (but with far less influence than OTL)

Destroyed in the War:

Germany
Italy
People's Republic of China
Republic of China


Welcome to 1984

Except you have 4 powers instead of 3.

 

[Byzer Bob]

The problem with this is

Japan's navy will not be hitting Pearl Harbor, Japan needs oil even though its getting some from Russia right now that need has not diminished. It will invade the Axis sympathizing middle east holdings (Iraq, Iran that area). Given the firepower of the Japanese Navy and the British containing the German/Italian navy Japan will have little trouble acquiring the middle east. Probably land around Basra.

Hiroshima to Honolulu 3856nm
Hiroshima to Basra 6503nm

Slight flaw in your plan

Ignoring India etc (another flaw)

 

[Flubber]

You are assuming that America declares war on Germany.

And you're assuming far too many other things.

Zeros on the Eastern Front? A fighter without self-sealing gas tanks or a radio? I'll leave it to the board's many aviation enthusiasts to laugh down that suggestion.

In fact, we don't even need to look at what specific items Japan might supply the USSR with. Instead we need to look at whether Japan can even supply the USSR with anything in any of the quantities the USSR needs.

Among the many fatal assumptions you've made is one concerning Japan's industrial capacity. Of the major combatants in WW2, Japan's manufacturing capacity only exceeds that of Italy. The US could provide Lend Lease because of the US' huge manufacturing capacity. Japan's capacity was roughly a seventh of the US' and less than a fifth of the USSR's capacity.

This link gets posted a lot here in discussions of this type so I guess posting it again won't hurt: Grim Economic Realities

Another huge fatal assumption you've made concerns just what Lend Lease comprised. The US and, to a lesser extent, the UK didn't send the USSR weapons as much as they sent materials and food. Tens of thousands of trucks were sent. Can Japan even build those? How about all the radios and field telephones the Red Army used? Or the spam it ate? Or the hundreds of locomotives? Or the thousands of railcars? Or the high octane avgas? You're suggesting that Japan manufacture and ship to the USSR items in quantities that Japan couldn't even manufacture for itself. You're suggesting that Japan produce and ship to the USSR basic industrial supplies that Japan cannot even produce for itself.

Need I even bring up shipping capacities? Is Japan going to cram everything it give the USSR down the Trans-Siberian railroad? Japan certainly can't use the OTL's Murmansk and Persian routes.

Finally, what is Japan going to get in return? Oil alone? How does the USSR get Baku oil to Japan in the quantities Japan needs? And what about all the other materials and resources Japan needs and will need to produce the things Japan is supposedly sending the USSR?

This is one of those 3am ideas. They look good at first glance but fall apart when actually inspected.

 

[Flubber]

The problem with this is the timing.

The problem is that reality isn't a game of Axis & Allies.

 

[JRScott]

Hiroshima to Honolulu 3856nm
Hiroshima to Basra 6503nm

Slight flaw in your plan

Ignoring India etc (another flaw)

I didn't put all the steps in, you'd take Indonesia which is Dutch first then Iran/Iraq. You just skip Hawa'ii and Philippines.

 

[Flubber]

I didn't put all the steps in...

Obviously.

... you'd take Indonesia which is Dutch...

And Holland is a UK ally.

... then Iran/Iraq.

And both are UK protectorates.

You just skip Hawa'ii and Philippines.

And now you have an even longer supply line with British India and US Philippines sitting astride it. That is an improvement exactly how?

Here's a real world logistics rule-of-thumb you won't find in Axis & Allies: The increase in the distance of a given supply line is directly proportional to increase in the number of vehicles and the amount of time needed to service that new line. Bob already explained that you've essentially doubled your shipping distances and that means you've doubled the number of freighters/tankers you'll need along with doubling the amount of time they'll require to move their cargoes. Where are all those extra ships coming from?

 

[JRScott]

And you're assuming far too many other things.

Zeros on the Eastern Front? A fighter without self-sealing gas tanks or a radio? I'll leave it to the board's many aviation enthusiasts to laugh down that suggestion.

In fact, we don't even need to look at what specific items Japan might supply the USSR with. Instead we need to look at whether Japan can even supply the USSR with anything in any of the quantities the USSR needs.

Among the many fatal assumptions you've made is one concerning Japan's industrial capacity. Of the major combatants in WW2, Japan's manufacturing capacity only exceeds that of Italy. The US could provide Lend Lease because of the US' huge manufacturing capacity. Japan's capacity was roughly a seventh of the US' and less than a fifth of the USSR's capacity.

This link gets posted a lot here in discussions of this type so I guess posting it again won't hurt: Grim Economic Realities

Another huge fatal assumption you've made concerns just what Lend Lease comprised. The US and, to a lesser extent, the UK didn't send the USSR weapons as much as they sent materials and food. Tens of thousands of trucks were sent. Can Japan even build those? How about all the radios and field telephones the Red Army used? Or the spam it ate? Or the hundreds of locomotives? Or the thousands of railcars? Or the high octane avgas? You're suggesting that Japan manufacture and ship to the USSR items in quantities that Japan couldn't even manufacture for itself. You're suggesting that Japan produce and ship to the USSR basic industrial supplies that Japan cannot even produce for itself.

Need I even bring up shipping capacities? Is Japan going to cram everything it give the USSR down the Trans-Siberian railroad? Japan certainly can't use the OTL's Murmansk and Persian routes.

Finally, what is Japan going to get in return? Oil alone? How does the USSR get Baku oil to Japan in the quantities Japan needs? And what about all the other materials and resources Japan needs and will need to produce the things Japan is supposedly sending the USSR?

This is one of those 3am ideas. They look good at first glance but fall apart when actually inspected.

Japan's capacity to provide planes to Russia would be fine I believe, it was a lack of pilots not planes that hurt Japan. I do agree that Japanese planes are inferior to German ones though, given enough numbers you can overcome that.

Food is a big problem but you could use surplus food in Korea and Vietnam under Japan's control to help feed Russia as well as Manchuria.

A route would be problematic for delivering oil. Rail would be the easiest way but it would also be a target meaning constant repair.

I assume USSR acknowledges Japan's claims to China, Manchuria, Korea, Vietnam, Burma, Laos, western pacific islands, Japan would also assure they would not invade USSR and would acknowledge Mongolia to USSR.

The war will be more drawn out and it'll result in more deaths but a Britian-Russia-Japan compact could win. The biggest problem for Germany is her lack of a Navy, combining Britain's and Japan's navies will be formidable. It's clear the USA isn't going to join and Chamberlain needs allies, he recognizes the Japanese claim to the same as USSR, and Japan acknowledges his claims to Australia and India I believe you could get a working deal. A Japanese-British pact also extends the range of the Japanese fleet.

As far as timing goes, like I said if they wait to publish til after the Attack on Pearl then its to late everyone's at war and the USA is entering. FDR is not going to cancel the war declarations against Germany or Italy in light of this. It just means Russia is not part of the allies.

In this even the sides would be Britain-USA, Germany-Italy, Japan-Russia. If you have these three sides the only side that can ultimately win is Britain-USA. Russia was a non factor in the Pacific war basically declaring war shortly before we dropped the bombs. This breakdown though could have Germany-Italy sue for peace with Japan-Russia when D-Day happens. Depending how well Japan-Russia is doing whether they accept but they probably need a breather so they accept restoring the border at the poland mark, Stalin won't take less.

This however allows Hitler to move his forces that were once fighting Stalin to block the allies coming from D-Day. Stalin's forces are ragged and need time to rebuild he's not going to go across the line, giving him time to build in Europe. He like Germany has a relatively non existent Navy compared to the rest and he'd largely be a non factor in Pacific except his oil line which US subs will target. He might provide troops to help defend coastal Asia and also to help protect Japan mainland. However this would only be done if he can do so without weakening his European front.

The war stretches on with the reinforced European front holding better than OTL, this bogs down USA and Britain in France. Indeed Hitler might be able to push them back out though it would be a rather costly affair and he might be willing to have a peace for a bit, though I doubt Chamberlain or FDR would take it. In such an event the first atomic bombs will be dropped on Germany not Japan.

 

[JRScott]

Obviously.



And Holland is a UK ally.



And both are UK protectorates.



And now you have an even longer supply line with British India and US Philippines sitting astride it. That is an improvement exactly how?

Here's a real world logistics rule-of-thumb you won't find in Axis & Allies: The increase in the distance of a given supply line is directly proportional to increase in the number of vehicles and the amount of time needed to service that new line. Bob already explained that you've essentially doubled your shipping distances and that means you've doubled the number of freighters/tankers you'll need along with doubling the amount of time they'll require to move their cargoes. Where are all those extra ships coming from?

Sorry the USA staying out means Britain only chance is to ally with Russia and Japan, to do that they will make concession just like they did to Germany before the break of the war. Otherwise there will be no empire.

Holland is already Germany's at this point and Britain doesn't have the forces to defend Indonesia anyway. They have a squadron in Iraq and less than a battalion of troops between Iraq and Iran they can't defend them (and OTL will lose them anyway). If Japan's an ally the Iraq/Iran could well just be a request for assistance in exchange for oil.