The Bedouins Dream of Allah (A Saudi Arabian Axis discussion)

[Incanian]

I don't know if this is ASB, but seeing as there aren't many Saudi Arabian alternate histories, I thought I'd mix it up. So, After the Ottoman empire fell, and Ataturk reformed Turkey, it became fully Turkish, and never expanded into the Balkans, or down south. That left a power vacuum, that Saudi Arabia filled in. So I was wondering since the dream of a unified Arabia was never fully sought, could the Saudis join the Side of the Axis, and possibly invade Yemen, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, and Palestine/Israel?

Yet again this might be ASB, but I wanted to at least try the scenario out.

 

[Alanith]

I don't know if this is ASB, but seeing as there aren't many Saudi Arabian alternate histories, I thought I'd mix it up. So, After the Ottoman empire fell, and Ataturk reformed Turkey, it became fully Turkish, and never expanded into the Balkans, or down south. That left a power vacuum, that Saudi Arabia filled in. So I was wondering since the dream of a unified Arabia was never fully sought, could the Saudis join the Side of the Axis, and possibly invade Yemen, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, and Palestine/Israel?

Yet again this might be ASB, but I wanted to at least try the scenario out.

I'd be more interested in who the US/UK would put in power after the inevitable defeat of the House of Saud. And what effects that would have today.

 

[Incanian]

I'd be more interested in who the US/UK would put in power after the inevitable defeat of the House of Saud. And what effects that would have today.

Yeah. I'm not saying the Axis powers win this war because of the Saudis, but with the house of Saud overthrown, you could actually see a Kemalist Saudi Arabia, reformed like Turkey was. This also might have a lot of cultural effects with white supremacists. Hitler actually said multiple time he liked Islam. This would be more popularized with an Arabic intervention in the war which would be Pro-Nazi. White supremacists and Neo-nazis might have favorable views of Arabs being white like Europeans, and maybe, maybe even Islamic white supremacists. The changes would have global consequences.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

The thing is, the Anglo-Americans seemed to be on very good terms with the House of Saud, a relationship that continues to this day. There's that photo of FDR chumming it up with ibn Saud. Pretty much set the tone for our policy there forever.

 

[Incanian]

The thing is, the Anglo-Americans seemed to be on very good terms with the House of Saud, a relationship that continues to this day. There's that photo of FDR chumming it up with ibn Saud. Pretty much set the tone for our policy there forever.

Yeah, that's true. I do remember that even before Iran turned to revolution, Saudi-U.S relations were already high. Iran mainly was funded by Britan, and Saudi Arabia was mainly funded by America. I heard oil was discovered there in 1936, so when the war starts, and the Saudis are on the side on the Axis, they could give huge amounts of oil to the Nazis, and waitt........couldn't the Arabs trade with the Japanese, and give them ALLLL the oil they need? That might be interesting if the Saudis can give a lot of oil to Japan during the U.S embargo, or even before then.

 

[Viper81]

I heard oil was discovered there in 1936, so when the war starts, and the Saudis are on the side on the Axis, they could give huge amounts of oil to the Nazis, and waitt........couldn't the Arabs trade with the Japanese, and give them ALLLL the oil they need? That might be interesting if the Saudis can give a lot of oil to Japan during the U.S embargo, or even before then.

If the Saudis are on the Axis side, there is no chance of them getting oil to either member. Geography is working very much against them, as they are surrounded by Egypt, Iraq, British East Africa, and India. I think their only mention in the history books would be a blurb about the motorized column that drove from Kuwait to Riyadh and changed the regime.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

You have a better change in Iran going Axis then Saudi Arabia.

 

[Incanian]

If the Saudis are on the Axis side, there is no chance of them getting oil to either member. Geography is working very much against them, as they are surrounded by Egypt, Iraq, British East Africa, and India. I think their only mention in the history books would be a blurb about the motorized column that drove from Kuwait to Riyadh and changed the regime.

Maybe to gain favor with the Axis, they give a ton of oil to them before the war starts. It would certainly help Japan. Geography might help them a bit, with the endless tracks of a desert and all that. They probably wouldn't play that big of a role, but remember, an Axis Saudi Arabia will vastly affect the Middle East.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Maybe to gain favor with the Axis, they give a ton of oil to them before the war starts. It would certainly help Japan. Geography might help them a bit, with the endless tracks of a desert and all that. They probably wouldn't play that big of a role, but remember, an Axis Saudi Arabia will vastly affect the Middle East.

And what oil would that be, exactly? The Saudis haven't discovered any major wells until 1938, and would still need years and substantial American capital and technical expertise before it could be effectively extracted. By the time they have a notable amount to offer, the war is already in full swing.

Anyways, I imagine this ends with a Hashmite being put in charge of the region under a more moderate Sunni government, likely including the Transjordan.

 

[Incanian]

And what oil would that be, exactly? The Saudis haven't discovered any major wells until 1938, and would still need years and substantial American capital and technical expertise before it could be effectively extracted. By the time they have a notable amount to offer, the war is already in full swing.

Anyways, I imagine this ends with a Hashmite being put in charge of the region under a more moderate Sunni government, likely including the Transjordan.

Okay, I take back my oil statement. It is kinda ridiculous, but do you know where the Saudis may invade? Would they go North to Syria, and Iraq, or South to Yemen, and Oman? And is there any way they could help the Axis in any way? Like with sending troops to help the Italians in North Africa, while Germany focuses on Russia?

 

[Viper81]

Okay, I take back my oil statement. It is kinda ridiculous, but do you know where the Saudis may invade? Would they go North to Syria, and Iraq, or South to Yemen, and Oman? And is there any way they could help the Axis in any way? Like with sending troops to help the Italians in North Africa, while Germany focuses on Russia?

I don’t see it happening. Each of those countries is attached to either the UK or France, so attacking any direction will draw a strong Allied response. The UK kept a very strong Middle East presence throughout the war, and I would imagine the Saudis don’t have the strength, industry, or logistics to support any sizable force outside their borders, while the British clearly do.

 

[Incanian]

I don’t see it happening. Each of those countries is attached to either the UK or France, so attacking any direction will draw a strong Allied response. The UK kept a very strong Middle East presence throughout the war, and I would imagine the Saudis don’t have the strength, industry, or logistics to support any sizable force outside their borders, while the British clearly do.

Exactly. The Point is, the Saudis join the Axis, and they decide to capture some of these nations, so the Axis can knock more Allied colonies out of the war.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Okay, I take back my oil statement. It is kinda ridiculous, but do you know where the Saudis may invade? Would they go North to Syria, and Iraq, or South to Yemen, and Oman? And is there any way they could help the Axis in any way? Like with sending troops to help the Italians in North Africa, while Germany focuses on Russia?

Their most likely route is focus on the Red Sea theatre (Heading into Jordan and Yeman) since that's where most of their infrastructure is and keeping the Brits away from the Holy Cities is going to be a top priority. However, I don't believe they have the population or industry to make much of an impact; any army raised is going to be using highly outdated equipment. At best, we'd see some raids on British infrastructure in the southern Levant, but the second they run up against a European military force they'll get squashed

 

[thaddeus]

my understanding the dynamic in the Middle East, not just Saudi Arabia, was that while the Nazi regime had some popularity that was balanced out by the obvious drive to install Italy as new colonial master?

 

[Incanian]

Their most likely route is focus on the Red Sea theatre (Heading into Jordan and Yeman) since that's where most of their infrastructure is and keeping the Brits away from the Holy Cities is going to be a top priority. However, I don't believe they have the population or industry to make much of an impact; any army raised is going to be using highly outdated equipment. At best, we'd see some raids on British infrastructure in the southern Levant, but the second they run up against a European military force they'll get squashed

Yeah, you make some good points. As for the industry, could we have the Saudis, start trading with Hitler, Mussolini, and Hirohito before the war starts, so they at least get some updated weapons, and vehicles, maybe even some German generals, and engineers. Saudi Arabia has a decent population, and workforce they could build up, so what kind of preparation could we see pre-war?

 

[Incanian]

my understanding the dynamic in the Middle East, not just Saudi Arabia, was that while the Nazi regime had some popularity that was balanced out by the obvious drive to install Italy as new colonial master?

Hitler didn't really support Italy's drive to conquer the Middle East. If Italy wouldn't be promised Arabia, maybe they'd be promised more of Africa and the Mediterranean.

 

[Viper81]

Exactly. The Point is, the Saudis join the Axis, and they decide to capture some of these nations, so the Axis can knock more Allied colonies out of the war.

The problem is, just deciding doesn’t cut it. I seriously doubt they had the capability to even project a sizeable force (battalion size? Maybe?) to a major city in a neighboring nation, and that doesn’t account for British resistance. It’s kinda like Ireland joining the Axis. Great, one more on the German side, but they lack the capability to do anything before they’re stomped but the Bristol.

 

[mazzil68]

If Saudi joined the axis it would probably try and focus on the Levant area, the Saudi would have initial success on the fronts but as of WW2, initial axis success, than allied counterattack.

 

[Incanian]

The problem is, just deciding doesn’t cut it. I seriously doubt they had the capability to even project a sizeable force (battalion size? Maybe?) to a major city in a neighboring nation, and that doesn’t account for British resistance. It’s kinda like Ireland joining the Axis. Great, one more on the German side, but they lack the capability to do anything before they’re stomped but the Bristol.

Is there any way we could fix those problems before the war? Like giving them better industry from Axis funding?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Is there any way we could fix those problems before the war? Like giving them better industry from Axis funding?

All the Axis nations need every scrap of capital, both financial and physical, that they have to keep their own economies running and building up their domestic war machines and stocks of raw materials. Where is that funding to come from? assuming investing in the region is considered a good idea anyways.