The Battle of Guise, 1914

[Askanas]

If Molteke had sent the 2 Korps that had besieged Namur back to the right wing, instead of sending them to Russia. That means the Garde-reservekorps gets back to the 2nd German Army (and the XI.Armeekorps to the 3rd Army), what could that have changed? I suppose the Battle of Guise would have gone better for the Germans, but how much better? What is the likeliest thing to happen?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If Molteke had sent the 2 Korps that had besieged Namur back to the right wing, instead of sending them to Russia. That means the Garde-reservekorps gets back to the 2nd German Army (and the XI.Armeekorps to the 3rd Army), what could that have changed? I suppose the Battle of Guise would have gone better for the Germans, but how much better? What is the likeliest thing to happen?

http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/guise.htm
Interesting idea. It depends on how quickly it can get there and what condition it is in when it arrives. It would have an important impact at the Marne, where the extra corps may well cause the final breach of the French 9th army, forcing the 5th to divert critical troops back to the marshes of St. Gond. That may well prevent the rapid breech of German lines, allowing them to hold on the Marne river instead of the Aisne, which in turn means the German 5th and 4th armies can continue to bash up their rivals around Verdun, which will probably mean Verdun is cut off and the French 3rd army is badly bashed up. Sarrail is then gone for sure.
Basically the German V corps doesn't give up at Troyon because they aren't ordered to fall back to conform to the retreat to the Aisne. Of course there is plenty of supposition here on my part and things could play out very differently, but its more likely than just a replay of OTL.

 

[BlairWitch749]

http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/guise.htm
Interesting idea. It depends on how quickly it can get there and what condition it is in when it arrives. It would have an important impact at the Marne, where the extra corps may well cause the final breach of the French 9th army, forcing the 5th to divert critical troops back to the marshes of St. Gond. That may well prevent the rapid breech of German lines, allowing them to hold on the Marne river instead of the Aisne, which in turn means the German 5th and 4th armies can continue to bash up their rivals around Verdun, which will probably mean Verdun is cut off and the French 3rd army is badly bashed up. Sarrail is then gone for sure.
Basically the German V corps doesn't give up at Troyon because they aren't ordered to fall back to conform to the retreat to the Aisne. Of course there is plenty of supposition here on my part and things could play out very differently, but its more likely than just a replay of OTL.

sarrail isn't gone... his utter failures saw him promoted and packed off to command the salonika boondoggle... his love in the chamber far exceeded papa joffre

 

[Deleted member 1487]

sarrail isn't gone... his utter failures saw him promoted and packed off to command the salonika boondoggle... his love in the chamber far exceeded papa joffre

ITTL he could well be, as OTL he held at Verdun and proved Joffre wrong when he told him to let Verdun get cut off. Here he would be proved wrong when the Germans close the pocket and he loses significant forces in the process. No matter how popular he was with the republicans, he isn't coming back from that. OTL he proved Joffre wrong and was sacked for it, which is why he was brought back for the Salonika front; the politicians thought it was unfair and petty. Here though his reputation would be tarnished earlier, which might actually help France in some ways later on.

 

[Tom_B]

A Song in Porgy & Bess

If Molteke had sent the 2 Korps that had besieged Namur back to the right wing, instead of sending them to Russia. That means the Garde-reservekorps gets back to the 2nd German Army (and the XI.Armeekorps to the 3rd Army), what could that have changed? I suppose the Battle of Guise would have gone better for the Germans, but how much better? What is the likeliest thing to happen?

The usual cliched response is that sending the two corps was the decision that lost the war. The string of non sequitur's being that with those 2 corps would make a German victory at the Battle of the Marne an easy lay up, which in turn means the Schlieffen plan (logistical problems? what logistical problems?) works and Paris falls like an overripe banana and therefore game set match on the Western Front.

Unfortunately all of the above is deeply flawed. I do not see a German victory at the Marne as being probable. The Gap should still open up which will still result in a German retreat. The extra 2 corps will give Second Army a good chance to hold on to Rheims and I can see the German front in Champagne being 5-8 km south of OTL.

 

[Askanas]

I didn't mention the Battle of Marne anywhere, because I think taking the two corps and jumping to the Battle of Marne with them, would indeed be very ignorant. Between the decision to send the 2 corps to Russia (25 October) and the start of the Battle of Marne (5 September) there is a space of 10 days! In those time those corps aren't just invisible, they would act and cause some butterflies.

One of these would be the Battle of Guise, which was a realy near thing. The French X. Corps was nearly outflanked by the German Guard Corps. An extra corps could have made the difference for the Germans, to gain a victory instead of a stalemate.