The Assassination of Jimmy Carter, October 2nd 1980

[Mark E.]

Interesting stuff. So the voters would basically be electing Democratic electors, nominally pledged to Carter, who would then simply go on to vote for Mondale when the electoral college met?

On Oct. 16, 2000, Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan, candidate for the US Senate, died in a plane crash. There was no time to change names on the ballot before the November election. Lt. Governor Roger Wilson became governor and promised to use his power to appoint Jeanne Carnahan (Mel's wife) to the seat if the voters elected the Late Mel Carnahan. By voting for a dead man, the voters were electing a vacant seat. The vacancy won over Assembly-Of-God Republican John Ashcroft, and Jeanne Carnahan was seated.

On the national level, if the ticket was half empty, the voters would still be electing electors of their respective parties. Different states have different levels of binding or obligation for their electors. In any case, it is up to the electors alone (subject to state law and party influence) to choose the president if the intended candidate is deceased.

 

[Mikey]

How late in the campaign season was have running in serious contention? If it seemed plausible that Carter could hvae pulled it off, I think it's feasible that a huge Carter Assassination Conspiracy Theory movement would have existed.

Especially if Reagan goes on to win and his presidency follows the same general path, with Oliver North and Alexander Haig popping up to do their thing - and there are at least some vague links between the Hinckley family and the Bushes (John's father and brother were big donors).

 

[Electric Monk]

How late in the campaign season was [Carter] have running in serious contention? If it seemed plausible that Carter could hvae pulled it off.

Until the final debate, one week before the general election.

So there is an internal battle within the Dem hierarchy, and Kennedy comes out of it with the nomination. Mondale is a complete lame duck almost from the moment he is sworn in. He dares not do much to upset the status quo, and so the hostage crisis continues in the same manner as in OTL. Kennedy, despite a month long campaign at full speed where his speeches are moderate compared to his more liberal senate record, gets rolled in the general election by Reagan.

Nope. The Anybody-But-Carter movement were so desperate to find somebody not named Carter or Kennedy that they asked Mondale—the sitting vice-president—to be a candidate. There's no way Kennedy gets the nomination, since a major portion of his delegates were anti-Carter not pro-Kennedy.



As to what happens, Mondale gets the nomination and picks somebody (Southern, conservative) to be VP.

Mondale isn't the world's best campaigner, but he's not going to let himself get ripped in the debates like Carter did (yes, yes, 1984. Reagan had one good line in all of the debates and aside from that his performance was so bad people were concerned he was senile).

Maybe Reagan gets his "are you better off" bit or not, but it has a lot less impact against Mondale than Carter.

As already noted the election was close to even until the last week. Carter's campaign utterly failed at trying to portray Reagan as dangerous and that was probably the key plank of their entire campaign. Mondale has freedom to change that.

There were 15 states within 5% and twelve of them were Republican. There were a further 9 states within 10%, one of them Democratic. Swinging them all to the Democratic side gets you 294-244 and a Mondale victory. Given how in flux the campaign was until the last week that's not unreasonable.

That said, I imagine the probability of Reagan is still above 50%… just not that much higher.

 

[faubert]

The Decision on who would replace Carter would be made by a meeting of the full Democratic National Committee. Most likely they would select Mondale to replace Carter.

There are some factors that are being forgotten. The campaign would be suspended during the time of Carter's funeral. That would be about a week and Mondale's numbers would go up.

Best guess that in Mid October Mondale would have a small lead over Reagan with a couple of weeks to go before the election.

One wild factor is the fate of the Hostages. I can see Iran releasing the hostages in October as an act of sympathy to the United States during its time of mourning for its dead President.

If that happened then Mondale have have an even bigger lead over Reagan.

And if Mondale who was a former member of the Senate can work with Congress on creating a plan to fight the economic problems. Remember Carter did not get along with Congress. If Mondale and the Democratic Congress can work out a plan then going into the election President Mondale would have a success on Foreign Policy and the Economy.

But the real factor will be the Presidential Debate where Reagan would have the advantage like he did in 1984. In the debate Reagan would have to be careful. The Country would still be in mourning for Carter. (The mourning period for a dead President is 30 days) Reagan would have to be careful in how he attacks Mondale and the murdered President Carter.

On Election day itself I would say that Anderson's campaign would of collapsed. He might get 3% of the vote max instead of the nearly 7% he got.

My guess on the final results

Mondale 49&
Reagan 48%
Anderson 3%


I would also give Mondale about 280 Electoral votes. With Reagan winning the South and the West and Mondale getting just enough votes from the Northeast and Midwest to win the election

 

[Electric Monk]

I would also give Mondale about 280 Electoral votes. With Reagan winning the South and the West and Mondale getting just enough votes from the Northeast and Midwest to win the election

There are 20 states that went for Reagan by less than 10%. A whole bunch are in the South. Mondale is going to need places like Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee unless he can pull off 10+% swings in Texas or California or Ohio.

This site might help you.

 

[Orville_third]

and there are at least some vague links between the Hinckley family and the Bushes (John's father and brother were big donors).

Actually, it's a matter of record that Neil Bush and Scott Hinckley (John's big brother) were scheduled to have dinner the night of the assasination attempt...