The Civil Rights movement in the United States would be on full swing.
The late 1920s looked a lot like the early 1950s in that respect. Add to that the Klu Klux Klan was dealing with some serious internal problems and lots of whites
, north and south were getting tired of their activities.
The late 1920s looked a lot like the early 1950s in that respect. Add to that the Klu Klux Klan was dealing with some serious internal problems and lots of whites
, north and south were getting tired of their activities.
Last edited:
The problem is that the economic knowledge required to mitigate the Depression was only acquired as a result of the Depression. There was simply too much institutional poison in the inter-war system (and too little institutional knowledge on how to deal with this predicament) to avoid some major collapse.
Averting the Depression is one of the trickiest non-war PODs of the twentieth century.
Averting the Depression is one of the trickiest non-war PODs of the twentieth century.
Part of mitigating it is a better settlement after the Great War. The Versailes Treaty was a mess & aggravated the economic weaknesses that led to severe troubles later. something akin to the Marshall Plan of the 1940s was needed. Probably ASB to hope for that, but there it is. More realistic is not starting a tariff war just as business is retracting and banks overextended. Not sure what the PoD for that is, but it seems possible. It may be SAB to avoid Lemmings... I mean investors, to run off the speculative cliff in the 1920s. Sensible investment policies would have done a lot, but it seems Ponzi was the man of the hour. Lots of other things in the US and globally. I've often wondered about the effect of the Soviet state leaving a giant economic hole where the Russian empire had been.
In the US, prohibition would probably still be repealed but perhaps later. Without the Depression there may not be pressure (or at least not as much) to establish Social Security and the welfare state. So the US would be more libertarian and right wing at least for the next ten or twenty years. However, I expect that Roosevelt would still come to power if a recession occurs instead of a depression and Hoover is blamed for not resolving the economic mess.
marathag
Banned
The Depression of 1920 isn't much remembered now,was very severe. Worst deflationary period in US history, around 15%, Stock Market lost almost 50%. One of the 'fixes' was in fact, raising Tariffs to help combat unemployment, cutting income taxes to stimulate business, and it seemed to work.
Having Hoover lose to Al Smith in 1928 would help.
You'd think with all his actions to stop the depression he would have gotten at least 10% right. Most of his actions made the situation worse.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Were most of these expedients legislated at the end of Wilson's Administration, or the beginning of Harding's?
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Well, bully for Warren G. Harding then.
I wonder if continued prosperity tempers US isolationism.
Of course the lack of a Depression may deflect Japan's aggressive trajectory anyway, but if it does not, perhaps a prosperous U.S. might feel ready to apply economic pressure against Japan early on in reaction to any Japanese violations of China.
So many things came together to create the global expression, aside from tax, tariff, & banking policy there were after effect of the Great War - the economics of the Versailles Treaty & all that, the hole left by the conversion of the Imperial Russian economy to the Communist Soviet, collapse of Chinas economy during the warlord era... Beyond all that was a volatility created by a number of significant changes in technology. Mature industries like the railroads, coal energy. newsprint or telegraph communication continue to slow their growth opening fewer high paying jobs and becoming less attractive for investment. New technologies have a high failure rate in startups creating volatility in both employment and investment. While new industries pay a premium for the skills the need labor/management without the experience starts at a lower wage than they would have in the maturing industries. The larger number of mature/aging industries and larger number of start ups, early growth technologies concentrated in a decade, a 'crossover point' as it were, the more volatile and disrupted the markets, investment, employment, ect.. become. Perhaps the largest change in the 1920s-30s was the turnover from the rural agriculture to the urban industrial. At the start of the 1920s the majority of the US population was still rural agricultural. The conversion had been a ongoing thing that had been relatively slow but accelerating. In the early 20th Century this accelerated & the interwar years saw a relatively large and rapid turnover. This trend was not confined to the US. Germany was undergoing the same transition, the former Austrian Hungarian states were close to the tipping point in this, France and Britain had crossed it earlier & were trying to asorb the remnant surplus of labor from their agricultural sectors.
Changing US tax policy has a effect, but its a part of a larger whole.
Changing US tax policy has a effect, but its a part of a larger whole.
Andrew Mellon dies in 1917 instead 1937. Herbert Hoover is chosen as Harding's Secretary of Treasury and serves 1921-1929. Less right wing economic policies and more attention to farmers. When Wall Street crashes in 1929 there is not Mellon to lead the economic strategy and Hoover is free to be more determined: earlier recovery and some more programs to help poor people and small business. In 1932 FDR's New Deal is less popular and the Democratic Convention remains deadlocked until Newton Baker is nominated with Louisiana Governor Huey Long as running mate. Baker-Long defeats Hoover-Curtis and is reelected in 1936. In 1937 Baker imposes sanctions to Japan after the Nanchino Massacre but dies immediately after, making Long President: the Kingfish will lead the US to victory in the Great Pacific War (1939-1943). Meanwhile in Europe General Zhukov is not displaced against Japanese for Khalin Ghol War and is able to win Winter War and conquer Finland. The US imposes also an oil embargo to Italy during the Ethiopia War so the conflict is longer and harder and Mussolini Regime is severely weakened. World War Two sees America and Italy stay neutral and the Soviets win a very difficult Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany. Cold War between the Capitalist-Corporativist-Longist American Regime, with its allies Churchill United Kingdom, DeGaulle France, Chiang Kai-Shek China, Fascist Italy and Portuguese and Spanish dictatorships, and Statalist-Communist-Stalinist Soviet Union, allied with Democratic German Republic of Walter Ulbricht, Socialist India and Red Mexico. The winner is a great bet...
Why would the New Deal be less popular? If anything such measures would be more popular if people saw their benefits earlier on. And getting rid of Mellon at Treasury would free up Hoover somewhat, but even so Hoover personally believed in "picking yourself up by your bootstraps" and it wasn't until 1931 that he started taking some proto-New Deal measures. So basically little of real significance changes here.
According to Mussolini himself, Italy would've been forced to withdraw in a week if the League of Nations had actually enforced its oil sanctions - what other effects could there be if the US actually cuts off oil to Italian forces in Eastern Africa?
Avoiding the depression would be easy -- a 'normal' recession in 1925 or 1926. Of course, this just likely pushes ttthings to make a *depression later on with a crash in 1938 or 1939 unless the TL gets lucky AGAIN with a second middle of decade 'normal' recession which imo is low odds. Realistically speaking the question is more "what if you delay the depression a decade?"
marathag
Banned
With Long as President, not really seeing him pushing embargos, especially on Italy. Italians were part of his powerbase back in Louisiana. That and him being an Isolationist
But if the "Hoover's New Deal" stars in 1930, in 1932 there is less expectation for Roosevelt promises. Something likes "Oh ok, the New York Governor is making some economic reforms, that's good, but also the President makes some good, so what?". Roosevelt is popular but not enough to win the Convention.
Well, without anglo-american oil the Italian Army gets bogged down against Ethiopian guerrilla. In the worst case there will be an other Battle of Adua. In HL Mussolini convinced London and Washington giving away some important oil concessions in Iraq that AGIP had found some years before, but in the TL I can't immagine a government with Huey Long friendly to oil business.
But the Ethiopian War is in 1935, Long becomes President only in 1937.