WI: Thailand modernizes in the 19th century much like, and to the extent of OTL Japan, so by WWII they have a modern army and a decent Navy and an Airforce. How will another industrialized Asian power effect the World Wars? Will Thailand join forces with Japan to rule Asia? Will India be to Thailand what China was to Japan? Is there a possibility of such a coalition winning the war and establishing a greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere?
Thailand Pulls a Meiji
- Thread starter Elidor
- Start date
But Thailand is pretty small. Even as a relatively modern country it would be the equivalent of a Sweden in terms of military power. They may just be strong enough not to get bullied into an alliance with Japan as in OTL.
Of course the example of two successful modernizations in Asia would have massive butterfly effects on how other Asian nations go about their own modernization.
Of course the example of two successful modernizations in Asia would have massive butterfly effects on how other Asian nations go about their own modernization.
An interesting idea. I suppose if Thailand allied with Japan at the onset of WW2, Southeast Asia would have fallen quicker and a stronger southern front could have opened up against China. Assuming Thailand is on par with the Japanese, India may indeed have been in more trouble. Yet Thailand was only allowed to remain independent as a buffer state between French Indochina and British Burma (though they met in Laos anyway). The point is, a stronger Thai state might have prompted the Brits to expand their own military in the region if possible.
Hardly so:
Sweden: Pop. 9,182,927
Thailand: Pop 62,828,706
Yes, Thailand maybe small area wise, but it is a densely populated country with fertile rice fields. Even then, the area is more than Japan's.
Well, like Japan, Thailand can begin its international career as a British Ally, and a bulwark against further French expansion. Heck, if they modernize quickly enough they may even win the Franco-Siamese war of 1893 (which would be the French equivalent of the Russo-Japanese war)
Later, in the 1940s, Thailand might conquer all of Indochina and turn against British held Burma and Malaysia and collaborate with anti-British forces in India, and might even set up an Independent Bengal (under Bose) after initial victories against the Brits.
I'm referring to the military power Thailand could achieve by the late 1930s if they "pull a Meiji". Japan was pound for pound not as industrialized as the western powers at the time, and neither would Thailand be highly advanced. What you'll see is a country maybe 10 years behind in military technology. Only matching the best of the west in a few areas.
Sweden OTOH was quite advanced already. It's ability to design and manufacture modern weapons was very impressive during WWII. Yet their aggregate military power was not. I'm using it as an example of a modern industrialized nation which was not a military powerhouse.
Well if they waging an aggressive war with the Western Powers, they will want to modernize their military before they modernize anything else. I' m thinking they will match the west in military tech but be behind 5-10 years in other tech. Plus who says they will have to modernize after Japan? They can begin modernizing sooner.
Military technology is the pinnacle of a nation's overall technological and industrial base. It's not like today where you can be quite advanced in consumer electronics with no military application. Back then you're only as powerful as your heavy industry.
Look at Japan, their military was overall 10 years behind even though the entire economy was geared up for war. Their tanks and artillery were very much inferior. Their ships and aircraft were only able to keep up briefly, before being out matched technologically, and far outmatched in production numbers.
I'm not saying they can't be a regional power, but to ally with Japan and go to war against the WWII allied powers would not likely change the OTL outcome.
Japan went to war in large part because psychologically they believed their island nation was invulnerable to invasion. Thailand being a smaller land power would risk being conquered if they lose a war. For this reason I doubt they would invade a superpower like the British Empire for lebenstrum.
They wouldn't fight for lebensraum. They would Just fight to dominate Asia. I doubt Japan was "10 years behind". Japanese Airplanes at the start of the war outclassed American Airplanes, and their submarines matched American design.
I'm not sure what the difference would be though.
They had one brand new fighter that outformed the older American ones, but America already had more advanced fighters ready to enter service within the year, and more advanced designs on the way. They had a very temporary advantage. But with a relatively backward tech base, could not hope to sustain it. In any case, Japan was outproduced by a wide margin. Their industry did not have the technology to mass produce high quality machines quickly. That makes them several decades behind in industrial technology.
I think if Thailand wants to expand, they would more likely pick on a backward Asian neighbour, the French, the Dutch, not the British Empire. Japan at least didn't have to worry about the British invading them.
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Erm.. thats todays population. Which is somewhat irrelevent.
Using http://www.populstat.info/ which may or may not be accurate,
In 1870~ Thailand had about 6~ million.
In 1900 Thailand had a population of about 6.3 million.
By 1920 it was about 9 million.
By 1940 it was 15 million.
Now admittedly, Sweden had a population of around 4.3 million in 1870, 5~ million in 1900, 6 Million in 1920 and about 6.3 million in 1940.
So if there was near uninterrupted reform then eventually Thailand would likely have quite a bit more clout.
But to compare it with Japan.
In 1872 Japan had a population of 33~ million.
In 1900 Japan had a population of 44~ million.
In 1920 Japan had a population of 56~ million.
In 1940 Japan had a population of 72~ million.
Thailand could potentially have reformed herself and industrialized, but she isn't going to be a second Japan. She doesn't have the population which directly means to her not having similar military power or economic strength.
I once wrote a TL where a modernized Siam was supposed to get into a Cold War with Japan but it never got past the turn of the century and Siam begins its Great Power status as a German ally instead of a British one. And the Franco-Siamese war was supposed to happen and end up with a Siamese victory too but much later around the early part of 1900's about the same time as the Russo-Japanese War.
