Taiwan in Protect and Survive?

[adamu_kun]

hm perhaps Taiwan would be plenty screwed. Well it's just an island as well as a major enemy of the PRC so I guess it's a logical outcome...

Which is a shame, as my partner would never have been born But it definitely looks as if that would have happened in this scenario in 1984...

The only thing I think we've overlooked here is that at the time (and even now) the US government signed the 'Taiwan Relations Act' in 1979. This act also requires the United States "to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character", and "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.".

So would this mean, that in the run-up to the European War, then the exchange in February 1984, the US would have provided more modern weaponry to Taiwan or even stationed troops there (as it did in fact do before the break-off of international relations)?

Given that we've established (I think ) that Taiwan would be pretty bad in this kind of exchange, how likely would US assistance in the run-up to war have been? And, given that the majority of China's nuclear weapons would have been delivered on planes or sub-standard missiles, how effective would this have been at limiting China's nuclear attack on Taiwan in 1984?

The reason I'm asking (and hoping for some debate) is to establish how things would have gone, what sort of build up there would have been etc. as I'm in the process of researching and (hopefully in the next few weeks) starting an Asia Pacific P&S Timeline, based in Taiwan and Japan (probably because I am not as familiar with other countries in the region!). So help and debate here would be welcome!

 

[Sumeragi]

To be frank, I don't see PRC launching nukes short of US forces actually being on Taiwan. Chiang Ching-kuo doesn't seem to be one to allow US troops in ROC even in the world of heightened tension, and as such unless ROC was stupid enough to start an invasion, I doubt that PRC would go through the trouble of nuking the island. Most likely targets would be at ROK and Japan.


@adamu_kun: Count me in on that project.

 

[SAVORYapple]

as I'm in the process of researching and (hopefully in the next few weeks) starting an Asia Pacific P&S Timeline, based in Taiwan and Japan (probably because I am not as familiar with other countries in the region!). So help and debate here would be welcome!

EXCELLENT

But you would kill my Grandfather and Father

btw, are you really from Taiwan?

 

[SAVORYapple]

To be frank, I don't see PRC launching nukes short of US forces actually being on Taiwan. Chiang Ching-kuo doesn't seem to be one to allow US troops in ROC even in the world of heightened tension, and as such unless ROC was stupid enough to start an invasion, I doubt that PRC would go through the trouble of nuking the island. Most likely targets would be at ROK and Japan.


@adamu_kun: Count me in on that project.

but then why nuke New Zealand?

Because after the nuke rain ends, an undamaged Taiwan will pose a threat to a heavily damaged China. A few nukes just to make sure....I'm not actually sure IF china could have spared the nukes for Taiwan, but I think the USSR may have at least lobbed a big one at Taipei.

 

[Sumeragi]

but then why nuke New Zealand?

I have no idea. If that's part of the original P&S, then it's a leap of logic beyond what I can consider by myself.

Because after the nuke rain ends, an undamaged Taiwan will pose a threat to a heavily damaged China. A few nukes just to make sure....

I'm of the view that PRC would have been too busy using the nukes in ROK/Japan to have any left over for Taiwan. However.....

I'm not actually sure IF china could have spared the nukes for Taiwan, but I think the USSR may have at least lobbed a big one at Taipei.

Given how even NZ was nuked, a possibility.

 

[Tsochar]

1. Using a 15KT device like the Hiroshima blast, only a small area is in the blast radius (unfortunately it goes just a little bit north of Nanjing East Road station, so that's my local pub gone :-( )


2. Now type in 1000 in the box (i.e. 1000KT - 1MT). The map now zooms out and pretty much all of Taipei is covered in the central blast radius. The river marks the western boundry of Taipei City and Sindian in the south is actually not part of Taipei City, it's part of Taipei county - the only area that is not in the immediate blast and is actually in Taipei City (population 2M in 2010) is Beitou.

Given that at least two (if not three) bombs of this size would hit Taipei, that's a lot more destruction than centering the Hiroshima blast on the same map. I know these maps aren't fully accurate, but still, that still looks as if it would add up to a lot of dead bodies.

Not fully accurate would be putting it mildly. The thing about these simplistic nuclear simulators is that they completely discount terrain, which can shape the blast in very important ways. Some regions relatively close to the impact radius could come out mostly intact, while ones farther away might be leveled. Another thing to consider is that it's generally not worthwhile dropping a nuke on a population center unless there are military assets in the area (and there probably would be.)

If Taiwan has anything resembling air raid drills then residents would be able to increase their chances of survival tenfold or so, although you'd know more about such drills than I would. A person in a building would stand a far better chance than someone caught unawares in the street. What's more, in large urban areas the

I'm quite sure that some people would survive these blasts, am just trying to approximate based on the population at the time. I know it would not be 100%, but looking at this blast simulation, it looks quite scary!

So, given the construction of buildings in Taiwan in 1984 (and to some degree, now as well, definitely now as I look out of the window!), the fact that Chinese bombs used would be more powerful than the ones used on Hiroshima by some orders of magnitude and also that the KMT at the time was not the most public-spirited government in the world (to put it mildly) and didn't provide nuclear shelters for civilians, what would you estimate the death rate to be in Taipei and Taiwan as a whole?

Let's say three 1MT for Taipei and Kaohsiung, then one each for each major city in-between (so Chiyai, Taichung and Hsinchu). Also, each city is not sheltered by mountains or has areas hidden by mountains (indeed, Taipei's kind of in a basin surrounded by mountains - would this aid or hinder the blast?).

1 MT is just a tad large; such types are generally only used for more important but non-hardened military targets. Most nukes are in the 150-350 kt range. The area covered by a nuke's blast increases by the 2/3 power of its yield, roughly, meaning the area of one such nuke would be 4-8 times that of Hiroshima's blast. Taipei, receiving 3 such blasts, might get around 2 million casualties. In all, 6 million immediate casualties on the whole island might be expected, though this is probably worse than a likely case. Bear in mind that Beijing wouldn't need or want to kill everyone on the island; 4-5 million casualties would be more than enough to render the local government impotent from rioting, rebuilding, and so on.

This assumes that the KMT has concentrated their military assets in cities. If Beijing believes that the most likely location for a nuclear arsenal is on a remote mountain on the east coast, you can bet that one or more likely more nukes would be sent there. I can't begin to know what or where the major Nationalist nuclear assets are (possibly I could be extradited and tried as a spy if I did ever find out), but I do know that one of the most vital military targets in the US in the event of nuclear war is in a (classified) remote location.

Also recall that China doesn't have a lot of particularly "smart" missiles in this era, so conventional weapons may do quite a bit of damage to civilian targets as well.

On the other hand, nuclear attack plans are such that missile defenses, even if they don't practically work, can mitigate the damage. For example, let's say Beijing believes the US has a missile shield in place that can intercept half of incoming IRBMs. This means that they would need to send twice as many nukes at the most important targets; two nukes hitting the same area would be much less damaging than two nukes hitting in different areas, and as I said earlier such targets may not even be in a large population center.

And if the defenses do work, then that means that many fewer nukes will get through. I don't know if any such defenses are in place or could credibly be believed to be in place, though, so this may not apply.

Finally, keep in mind that a nuke is a complicated piece of technology, and it's possible that some significant percentage of them won't even work. I don't know what the reliability rates are on Chinese nukes in the '80s, but if it's lower than 90% then it's possible that one or more incoming nukes will just be duds.

If we take all these factors into account, it's possible that the short-term casualties from nukes could be as low as 3 million if we're optimistic; I think 7 million would be just about the maximum; any more would be a waste of precious missiles.

 

[SAVORYapple]

Given how even NZ was nuked, a possibility.

however, Taiwan will still have Taizong and Taipei.

 

[LeX]

I have no idea. If that's part of the original P&S, then it's a leap of logic beyond what I can consider by myself.

Apparently the USSR made a point of nuking every Western-aligned nation at least a couple times, probably to make sure they don't get too powerful in the postwar scene.

 

[adamu_kun]

EXCELLENT

But you would kill my Grandfather and Father

btw, are you really from Taiwan?

And I'd be killing off my parents in law, so my wife would not be born either

No, I'm not from Taiwan, I just live here, kind of by accident. I spent 15 years living in Japan and moved over here at the end of 2010.

but then why nuke New Zealand?

Because after the nuke rain ends, an undamaged Taiwan will pose a threat to a heavily damaged China. A few nukes just to make sure....I'm not actually sure IF china could have spared the nukes for Taiwan, but I think the USSR may have at least lobbed a big one at Taipei.

I agree. NZ would have been nuked because it could have provided help to NATO ships / submarines and even have airports used as landing strips for aircraft (although how they would have the fuel to get there I do not know!).

Taiwan would get nuked, as nukes or no nukes (it was certainly trying to make them in the 70s and 80s), a badly damaged China would be a pretty easy invasion target if Taiwan was relatively unscathed.

To be frank, I don't see PRC launching nukes short of US forces actually being on Taiwan. Chiang Ching-kuo doesn't seem to be one to allow US troops in ROC even in the world of heightened tension, and as such unless ROC was stupid enough to start an invasion, I doubt that PRC would go through the trouble of nuking the island. Most likely targets would be at ROK and Japan.


@adamu_kun: Count me in on that project.

I'm not entirely sold on this. True, the then ROC President was not keen on having US forces stationed on Taiwan, but in the P&S universe, I'm not sure if he would still think / act like this. I think though at the very least, the US would be providing some serious hardware to the ROC to back up what it already had (not too dated in 1984) and quite possibly an aircraft carrier and a sub or two in the Strait (I don't think this is too far from the realms of possibility, as they would be handily placed to strike against China if the need arose, as well as being able to provide support to US forces in the ROK).

I totally agree that Japan would get pretty seriously nuked, but not all over the place as some people on various P&S threads have written. Japan would not really be a threat to China OR the DPRK because of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution that states that Japanese 'self-defense' forces can only be used to defend the Japanese islands and cannot be used for acts of agression overseas. This would very likely stick - why? Because of this...

...The PRC at the time was the only Asian power with nukes. So it's highly likely that the Soviets and the PRC would try to nuke some targets in Japan, but more than likely only the American bases. The huge US navy base in Yokosuka would get nuked, as would the air bases at Atsugi and Fussa. Given that two or three nukes would be aimed at each location and the proximity of these to Yokohama and Tokyo (pretty much next-door), there would be quite a bit of damage in Tokyo, if not total damage from stray nukes. The other area that would take a massive blasting would be Okinawa, home to US airbases and marines - there's about 50,000 service personnel deployed there. Other than that, it's unlikely Japan would take a major beating as it cannot, under its own law, conduct acts of agression overseas. Unless of course the USSR and the PRC took out major airports to ensure there was nowhere for NATO planes to land (think B-52s operating over Eastern Siberia / PRC) and that would include Haneda (and there goes a big chunk of Tokyo too, then

So given the areas of Japan that would be nuked, it's possible (though not 100% likely) that the government would be cut off from the SDF and not able to issue orders. With the strong sense of discipline in the Japanese military, with no government able to issue orders and let them know if Article 9 has been repealed or not (unlikely but, given the situation), the military would still think it's been constrained by Article 9 (or would there be rogue commanders who thought otherwise because of the attack on Japanese soil - now there's a possible thought for the possible Asia Pac P&S ).

Nukes on the ROK would similarly be constrained to American military facilities (if that) because (correct me if I'm wrong), there's only about 45,000 US troops in Korea and, with no reinforcements likely due to the war in Europe (and the general apocalypse going on around the world), I would hazard a guess that the PRC would believe that the DPRK conventional army of 1million plus would be able to contain them. But I guess one or two nukes on bases in Korea.

And Sumeragi, thanks for the offer. Collaboraters are always welcome in times of war, I'm still working on the outline and am off to the UK for the week from Saturday, so have two really long flights to write some notes on

 

[SAVORYapple]

And Sumeragi, thanks for the offer. Collaboraters are always welcome in times of war, I'm still working on the outline and am off to the UK for the week from Saturday, so have two really long flights to write some notes on

I'd also like to help

 

[adamu_kun]

Not fully accurate would be putting it mildly. The thing about these simplistic nuclear simulators is that they completely discount terrain, which can shape the blast in very important ways. Some regions relatively close to the impact radius could come out mostly intact, while ones farther away might be leveled. Another thing to consider is that it's generally not worthwhile dropping a nuke on a population center unless there are military assets in the area (and there probably would be.)

True, these online simulators are a tad annoying. If you look at a google satellite image of Taipei and see where the urban development is, pretty much on the north, east and west sides there are mountains, so areas the other side of them would be shielded from some of the blast. But in Taipei's case (and using one of these not very accurate simulators), the blast covers pretty much all of the flat area bordered by mountains, so it would be bye bye Taipei

I totally agree with what you're saying here and cities in mountainous areas would most definitely be shielded somewhat. The trouble with Taiwan is, most of the island's cities are on the flat plains of the west coast with no real shielding by mountains. But maybe mountains would shield them from receiving damage from blasts from neighbouring cities.

You're right, there are some military assets in (or close by) major cities. Looking at Taipei again as a shining example, Songshan airport (right in the city centre) is a military airport and when I go outside of my office (sorry, I smoke!) I often see military transports coming in to land. There are also military hospitals in the northern district (e.g. Beitou Armed Forces Hospital) and again, in the centre, there are all the government buildings near Taipei Main Station - all helpfully clustered together, built out of solid materials (by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945). Away from Taipei, there's a pretty big airbase at Hsinchu and of course, Kaoshiung port (pretty much by the centre of Kaohsiung) is home to the ROC navy.

I think that population centres would be targeted in Taiwan, not just because of military assets located nearby, but because of the following two key reasons:

1. A lot of government research goes on at universities here, as well as of course production / factories etc.
2. Taiwan has national conscription, so all male citizens have to join the army for 2 years before or after University and thereafter there's compulsory draft in times of crisis. Nuking cities would be getting rid of a large part of the ROC's 'standby' army in one shot

So, whilst I agree that 1MT may be overkill in some areas on Taiwan, it would be probably used once or twice on Taipei because of the concentration of government and military assets.

however, Taiwan will still have Taizong and Taipei.

Oh no, not Taichung Isn't that just asking for a mafia / gang controlled post-exchange government?

Apparently the USSR made a point of nuking every Western-aligned nation at least a couple times, probably to make sure they don't get too powerful in the postwar scene.

Yup, they did. So that's some non-PRC nukes going to Japan. I'm not entirely sure that they would aim some nukes at Taiwan though, as they would fully expect the PRC to be dispatching some 'resources' in that direction. But you never know - if the USSR didn't launch nukes at Taiwan, the PRC didn't or had nuke-bearing planes shot down by the ROC air force, then the KMT invading China becomes a possibility and potentially threatening the Rodina becomes a possibility... Unlikely, but a possibility.

So Soviet nukes launched at Taiwan? Personally, I don't think so, but it's a definite possibility.

 

[adamu_kun]

I'd also like to help

Cool, I'd be more than happy with that

Are you Taiwan-based too?

 

[SAVORYapple]

Cool, I'd be more than happy with that

Are you Taiwan-based too?

Taiwanese by parentage, born in New Zealand, left for Taiwan when I was 1 year old, and am now in australia after living almost 13 years in Taiwan

btw, I'm also a teenager

 

[adamu_kun]

Taiwanese by parentage, born in New Zealand, left for Taiwan when I was 1 year old, and am now in australia after living almost 13 years in Taiwan

btw, I'm also a teenager

Cool, Australia is great too - I end up there quite a few times through the year on business, but unfortunately it's always during the cold part of the year

If you've got 13 (recent, I'm guessing) years experience of living in Taiwan, my guess would be that you have some good knowledge of Mandopop / Taiwanese music, although would this be limited to more recent music (a la Jolin Tsai / Jay Chou et al?). The reason I asked, is I've already thought of some appropriate quotes / lyrics from early 1980s era and earlier JPop / enka to use as intros to bits of the timeline dealing with Japan and would like to do the same for Taiwan. I have asked the wife to help, but she wasn't born until 1985 and professes no knowledge (now whether this is from embarassment or not, I'm not sure ).

It's nice to see some debate starting on the thread you started and I hope that this helps to generate the Asia Pac P&S timeline (watch this space!). Hopefully it will generate some interest, too!

 

[omega21]

As a Singaporean, I'm eagerly awaiting the Asia-Pac timeline.

 

[Chipperback]

P&S Asia?

Hello Asia/Pacific, from one of the authors of Protect and Survive

If you build it, I'll come and read it! The more viewpoints of the world after the missiles flew, the better.

If you haven't read them yet, here's all of the Protect and Survive threads.


Protect and Survive: The Original story. A Very British Apocalypse.

Duck and Cover: Protect and Survive USA Book 1

The Day After: Protect and Survive USA. The Definitive History.

Land Of Flatwater: Protect and Survive Middle America

The Last Flight of XM594: Her Majesty's Nuclear Deterrent

Land Of Sad Songs: Finland, caught between the superpowers.

No noi ci saremo: Italy vs. the Warsaw Pact...and themselves.

Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolfpack: Buffalo, New York after the war. “I have survived a war – TWO nuclear wars, cancer, arthritis…I swear, I think I might never die at this rate…heaven doesn’t want me, and Satan must be afraid I’m going to take over.”

That Damned Bridge: Nothing stops a Minnesota Viking.

No Rest For The Wicked: Mercenaries and mayhem on a wild post-attack African continent.

Pro Aris et Pro Focis: New York City, on the edge of disaster.

There Won't Be Any Illuminations: A new Protect and Survive tale from Britain.

Northern Wind: The Norwegian Front of World War III

The Last Game: A Protect and Survive tale of Bluegrass and Basketball. That's Kentucky.

Australasia hasn't been heard from yet, so come on in. We look forward to it

 

[adamu_kun]

Hello Asia/Pacific, from one of the authors of Protect and Survive

If you build it, I'll come and read it! The more viewpoints of the world after the missiles flew, the better.

If you haven't read them yet, here's all of the Protect and Survive threads.

( LIST )

Australasia hasn't been heard from yet, so come on in. We look forward to it

Thanks! There are that many now?

I'm working on my notes for the first chapter of the Asia Pac timeline at the moment (well, Taiwan and Japan anyway - there will be some cross-over that will become apparent, but not providing any spoilers before the first chapter is even posted!), as ideas have been formulating over the last month or so (hence signing up to AH....). I will be finalizing details of it during two long intercontinental flights I have over the next week or so and hope to post it when I'm back in Taiwan, sometime in the week commencing 20th Feb.

Does it make sense to post it here first to gather feedback and edit, or should I go ahead and create a whole new timeline?

Thanks (sorry, am new to this!!!)

 

[Cockroach]

Australasia hasn't been heard from yet, so come on in. We look forward to it

There's speculation about it in the main thread -and some indication Australia came off rather better off than most other western nations in TL itself, and a few vingettes from north Queensland in the open thread (which may not exactly mesh with the hints in p&S proper...).

 

[Gen_Patton]

Thanks! There are that many now?

I'm working on my notes for the first chapter of the Asia Pac timeline at the moment (well, Taiwan and Japan anyway - there will be some cross-over that will become apparent, but not providing any spoilers before the first chapter is even posted!), as ideas have been formulating over the last month or so (hence signing up to AH....). I will be finalizing details of it during two long intercontinental flights I have over the next week or so and hope to post it when I'm back in Taiwan, sometime in the week commencing 20th Feb.

Does it make sense to post it here first to gather feedback and edit, or should I go ahead and create a whole new timeline?

Thanks (sorry, am new to this!!!)

Yes there are a lot of us. Those of us who P&S really touched a nerve. Those of us who wanted to start on our own and explore that world.

My how we've grown.

You should probably post a few ideas (seeing how this may turn collaborative) and get some feed back. If people like it. Go ahead and post a new thread.

Have fun? and Good Luck,

Gen_Patton

 

[adamu_kun]

Yes there are a lot of us. Those of us who P&S really touched a nerve. Those of us who wanted to start on our own and explore that world.

My how we've grown.

You should probably post a few ideas (seeing how this may turn collaborative) and get some feed back. If people like it. Go ahead and post a new thread.

Have fun? and Good Luck,

Gen_Patton

Thanks - yup, I think it may end up being collaborative and I'd like to see the first chapter perfected as much as possible before starting a new timeline.

I do hope people like it, grim reading as it will more than likely be