Taipings "win"

[JHPier]

Now I don't think the Taipings could have successfully conquered all of China, they were too much out of the Chinese mainstream for that, they could have overthrown the Ch'ing dynasty.

In 1853, right after their capture of Nanking they sent a Northern Expedition that came as far as Tientsin. It might have gotten as far as Peking if they hadn't gotten bogged down besieging (in vain) a major city along the way (Kaifeng?) and, more importantly perhaps, hadn't lost half their number crossing the Yellow River, which in turn was due to being trailed by an Imperial army from one of the fortified camps facing Nanking that the Taipings had failed to take care of before setting out for Peking.

Supposing they mange to take Peking what will happen next?

Who will win the ensuing power struggle? (my best bet would be Zeng Guofang's Hunan Army)

Will anybody win at all?

What will the Western Powers do?

Will there be a Manchu rump state in Manchuria and Mongolia, to be eventually swallowed up by Imperial Russia?
What will happen to Tibet and Sinkiang?

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Bumped, because it's too interesting not to have any responses.

 

[Max Sinister]

A Manchu rump state: Not improbable. Although... AFAIK the Manchu were pretty sinicized, and after 1912, they didn't get their own state. Did they try to rebel against the Han?

What next? Difficult. It's a bit early for a Chinese republic. Maybe the Europeans divide it up, maybe a surviving Manchu prince takes control again, maybe it's all warlords for some decades, and a new dynasty emerges.

 

[Darkest]

Funny, I was just writing up a segment on my ATL about a more successful Taiping Rebellion due to butterflies. I also butterflied Charles George Gordon and Frederick Townsend Ward into other occupations, hopefully to reduce resistance against the Taipings.

I think a somewhat-Christian China would do wonders for the Chinese adapting them to the West. Still, who knows whether the Taipings would be able to regulate law in their territories (their cities will be fine, the frontier land they cared little for).

These guys were heavily prohibitionist, though. They will not allow opium into China. And for that, Britain or another world power might just find a way to declare war. And in their weakened state, who knows what they could do?

 

[Straha]

You sure like your unusual christian theocracies

 

[Thande]

Although there may be some differences due to it happening in the more connected world of the 19th century, I would see a China-wide version of the Taiping beliefs becoming something like another Islam - something that was close enough to Christianity to impart the same missionary/conquest fervour but different enough that Western Christians (I include the Orthodox as well in that) would probably be some of the most persecuted people.

I don't think a Taiping China would be good news at all for either the West or what was commonly held to be Christendom

 

[Darkest]

Well, that's what you have to do to come up with an interesting timeline... I'm not saying it'll SURVIVE in my timeline, but they came very close, in my opinion, to destroying Beijing, and if that happened, well, it'd be one different version of China you'll find later on.

 

[HueyLong]

They were more hostile to modernization than the mainstream Chinese, Darkest. And, their Christianity was heretical. It was apocalyptic and declared the Second Coming and Jesus in their leader. Not likely to get good reception if the leader of China is declaring himself the Lord Almighty.

 

[Darkest]

Jesus' younger brother as their leader... yeah, you're right, I must have been tired when I wrote that or something. It's very logical that the Europeans will not enjoy Hong Xiuquan's leadership at all.

Though I have to admit, the whole hostility to modernization thing, I've never heard of.

Tianjing China would still be very awesome and cool, however. It would also give the Russian Empire a good direction to expand. I could definitely see them filibustering their way into controlling Manchuria and Mongolia before anyone can do anything about it...

 

[Keenir]

Jesus' younger brother as their leader... yeah, you're right, I must have been tired when I wrote that or something. It's very logical that the Europeans will not enjoy Hong Xiuquan's leadership at all.

Probably there'd be very few objections (on the world stage) of any Japanese landings on the shores of China.

 

[MerryPrankster]

They were more hostile to modernization than the mainstream Chinese, Darkest. And, their Christianity was heretical. It was apocalyptic and declared the Second Coming and Jesus in their leader. Not likely to get good reception if the leader of China is declaring himself the Lord Almighty.

The Taipings were more hostile to modernization (and, I assume, foreigners too) than the regular Chinese?

Hmm...in my Afrikaner TL, I'm thinking of having the Afrikaners back an ATL version of the Taiping Rebellion in exchange for the new dynasty buying weapons from them. If the rebels were as xenophobic as the Qing Dynasty was, then pulling this scenario off could be more than a little iffy.

 

[Max Sinister]

WI the Europeans decide to assassinate him?

 

[galanx]

Can't see the Taipings holding together even if they overthrow the Qing and drive them back to Manchuria. I think a backlash led by Confucian gentry/officials in the conservative north would end up chasing them back south.

The north might be reunited under an ethnic Han dynasty founded by the most successful of the resistance leaders; the Yangtse and the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang might come under European control, direct or indirect. Maybe a quasi-Republic set up in the south based in Guangdong?

There would be local leaders everywhere trying to increase their control; I imagine the European Powers would do a lot of fishing in troubled waters.

 

[Hermanubis]

Now I don't think the Taipings could have successfully conquered all of China, they were too much out of the Chinese mainstream for that,

...as opposed to Communism, which was well grounded in Chinese thought and tradition

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Probably there'd be very few objections (on the world stage) of any Japanese landings on the shores of China.

Japan at this time is not powerful enough to try this. At most they would annex Ryukyu earlier and try for Korea and Taiwan, but the Westerners have their own interests in the latter 2 and Korea's not that far behind Japan at this time.

I could see Chinese Turkestan breaking free and forming one or more independent khanates. The Uzbek states (Kokand, Bukhara and Khiva) might try to grab some territory here. Russia will eventually take over, getting even closer to India and worrying Britain even more.

 

[Hapsburg]

WI the Europeans decide to assassinate him?

In my War of the Chinese Succession short-timeline (now in the map thread), I have that, once the Taiping succeed in conquering and holding southern China and arranging a peace treaty with the Qing Empire, he gets overthrown and assassinated in a military coup d'etat, and the new dynasty of leaders are far more moderate and drop the radically religious rhetoric, opting instead to open the Taiping Kingdom and its markets up to trade with the Europeans, giving it an economic edge over the conservative and anti-modernist Qing.
A side effect is that it leads to a populist revolution in Qing China in 1881, causing the Qing to flee north an form a Manchu rump state. The rest of China (basically Xinjiang and northern China) forms a nominally constitutional monarchy, but is in fact a military oligarchy, run by the Emperor, who was a former General and leader in the revolution.

 

[Hendryk]

In my War of the Chinese Succession short-timeline (now in the map thread), I have that, once the Taiping succeed in conquering and holding southern China and arranging a peace treaty with the Qing Empire, he gets overthrown and assassinated in a military coup d'etat, and the new dynasty of leaders are far more moderate and drop the radically religious rhetoric, opting instead to open the Taiping Kingdom and its markets up to trade with the Europeans, giving it an economic edge over the conservative and anti-modernist Qing.
A side effect is that it leads to a populist revolution in Qing China in 1881, causing the Qing to flee north an form a Manchu rump state. The rest of China (basically Xinjiang and northern China) forms a nominally constitutional monarchy, but is in fact a military oligarchy, run by the Emperor, who was a former General and leader in the revolution.

That could work. Apart from outright defeat (as in OTL), collapse, and devolution into self-destructive radicalism until foreign and/or Qing intervention restores the status quo ante, the most likely outcome is takeover by more moderate figures. Which has been the fate of Communist China in OTL.

 

[strangeland]

The Taipings would fall apart rather quickly. Europeans would take advantage of the situation and start siezing territory for themselves. A new dynasty would establish itself in the north, but everything south of the Yangtze would be partitioned by European powers or taken over by warlords. The manchus would retreat into Manchuria and establish a rump state.