Swedish-Prussian union/ a Prussian war of succession.

[Sirdragon]

What if Prince Augustus William of Prussia, and his family die of a house fire. Leading Gustav 3 of sweden to lay a claim on the Prussian throne, After Fredericks death in 1786.Due to being Frederick nephew.

After rumours that Austria and Russia intend to interfere in Prussian susuccession. The Prussian nobility deciding that gaining Sweden's support in the coming war is valuable they accept Gustav of Sweden claim.

Austria and Russia declare war. Russia so they can put their own candidate on the Prussian throne. Austria declares so it can support Russia and reclaim Silesia.

What happens? To Prussia and sweden in the coming war. And how does this effect north german geopolitics.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Prussia-Sweden, no contest. If for no other reason than Russia and Austria are currently far and away on a collision course with the Ottoman Empire (backed by the British) on the matter of Russia's unilateral annexation of Crimea. Expect the Golden Cavalry of St.George to ride in support Gustav and Ottoman forces to put the Russo-Austrians into a two front war.

 

[Sirdragon]

Bump.

 

[mikegold]

Hmm, great scenario! What happens to Poland - does this give them a chance at survival?

Any chance of French involvement? And how would that delay, advance, or otherwise change the French Revolution?

 

[Nivek]

Hmm, great scenario! What happens to Poland - does this give them a chance at survival?

This would butterfly away the second partiton so mebee....

Any chance of French involvement? And how would that delay, advance, or otherwise change the French Revolution?

Might accelerated the rotten of that zombie if they tried something

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What if Prince Augustus William of Prussia, and his family die of a house fire. Leading Gustav 3 of sweden to lay a claim on the Prussian throne, After Fredericks death in 1786.Due to being Frederick nephew.

After rumours that Austria and Russia intend to interfere in Prussian susuccession. The Prussian nobility deciding that gaining Sweden's support in the coming war is valuable they accept Gustav of Sweden claim.

Austria and Russia declare war. Russia so they can put their own candidate on the Prussian throne. Austria declares so it can support Russia and reclaim Silesia.

What happens? To Prussia and sweden in the coming war. And how does this effect north german geopolitics.

Laudon and Suvorov vs the Duke of Brunswick? I'm pretty sure that posting rape is against the rules of this forum...

 

[alexmilman]

Laudon and Suvorov vs the Duke of Brunswick? I'm pretty sure that posting rape is against the rules of this forum...

But perhaps looting and general mayhem are OK?

Prussian army led by Brunswick is just few years away from the defeat at Valmy delivered by the French revolutionary troops (only half of their infantry were regulars) led by quite mediocre general. Within few more years the Russian-Austrian army led by Suvorov had been defeating the best French generals (except for Bonaparte).

 

[Sirdragon]

But perhaps looting and general mayhem are OK?

Prussian army led by Brunswick is just few years away from the defeat at Valmy delivered by the French revolutionary troops (only half of their infantry were regulars) led by quite mediocre general. Within few more years the Russian-Austrian army led by Suvorov had been defeating the best French generals (except for Bonaparte).

But their artillerymen were professional. And not only that they were more modernized to boot as well. By de Gribeauval reforms.

Honestly the Austrians would have lost that battle as well if they had been in prussias place.

 

[alexmilman]

But their artillerymen were professional. And not only that they were more modernized to boot as well. By de Gribeauval reforms.

Yes, and almost all of their cavalry had been the Old Regime troops. But you are seemingly missing the point: the Prussian army, and especially its top leadership were, shall we say, "off their prime" and kept steadily going down the tubes all the way to Jena. At Valmy they started retreat just after the very inefficient long range artillery duel (their loss was under 200). Could this happen to the troops of Old Fritz?

Then, again, comes the fundamental question why would Prussians prefer Gustav III to almost any other candidate? He was seriously disliked in Sweden, despotic and rather erratic. Even his victory in the Battle of Svensksund (which did not, yet, happen in this time line) and resulting favorable peace with Russia did not save him from assassination few moths later. What would be the reason for the Prussians to chose this specific person if the choice would mean almost inevitable war with Russia and Austria?

Honestly the Austrians would have lost that battle as well if they had been in prussias place.

They quite probably would. But Austrians led by Suvorov most probably would not: look at their performance at Rymnik and during Suvorov's Italian Campaign or even on their own during the wars of French Revolution.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

They quite probably would. But Austrians led by Suvorov most probably would not: look at their performance at Rymnik and during Suvorov's Italian Campaign or even on their own during the wars of French Revolution.

Even without I'd say their prospects would be better, look at the Austrian performance at Caldiero (1796). By the time of the French Revolution the Austrian army was back on it's A-game after spending decades trying to recover from Charles VI's neglect.

 

[alexmilman]

Even without I'd say their prospects would be better, look at the Austrian performance at Caldiero (1796). By the time of the French Revolution the Austrian army was back on it's A-game after spending decades trying to recover from Charles VI's neglect.

Even before that time the main Austrian problem was leadership, not quality of the troops: their generals tended to be overcautious. As one Frenchman remarked about Austro-Russian war against the Ottomans, at the sight of the Ottomans the well-educated Austrians usually started maneuvering while the uneducated Russians had been just attacking and, as a result, while 4K Ottomans had been defeating 12K Austrians there would be no chance for 12K Ottomans to defeat 4K Russians (well, of course, Russian commander tended to exaggerate the Ottoman numbers but idea seems clear). The same goes for Suvorov's Italian campaign (of course, during the same period when competently led by their own generals Austrians had been defeating the French more than once): he was just pushing his Austrian and Russian troops into the attack neglecting the complicated maneuvers.

OTOH, according to Clausewitz, all the way to Jena, quality of the Prussian troops was quite low. Only humiliating defeat resulted in a drastic improvement.

 

[JonasResende]

Hate to be the one that pricks a hole in this balloon, but if August Wilhelm-and-kids die, the Prussian crown goes:
Friedrich the Great (d.1788)
Heinrich I, King of Prussia (1788-1802)
Ferdinand I, King of Prussia (1802-1813)
Then to Ferdinand's kids, who although there were debates about whether they were his or not, they were at least half-Hohenzollern, I guess. Plus, Luise Ulrike was the 6th, but fifth surviving daughter), which would mean that even if the kingdom of Prussia allowed female succession (the Brandenburg electorate sure as Hell didn't and the Franconian margraviates were more of the same AFAIK), the first claimant would be from one of Luise's elder sisters' lines. Gustaf would need the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off in the house of Hohenzollern before he might even get a look in.

 

[Sirdragon]

Hate to be the one that pricks a hole in this balloon, but if August Wilhelm-and-kids die, the Prussian crown goes:
Friedrich the Great (d.1788)
Heinrich I, King of Prussia (1788-1802)
Ferdinand I, King of Prussia (1802-1813)
Then to Ferdinand's kids, who although there were debates about whether they were his or not, they were at least half-Hohenzollern, I guess. Plus, Luise Ulrike was the 6th, but fifth surviving daughter), which would mean that even if the kingdom of Prussia allowed female succession (the Brandenburg electorate sure as Hell didn't and the Franconian margraviates were more of the same AFAIK), the first claimant would be from one of Luise's elder sisters' lines. Gustaf would need the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off in the house of Hohenzollern before he might even get a look in.

Fine prince Heinrich and Ferdinanand and kids all die in the house fire as well during a family reunion.

And they to raise Gustav as king of Prussia in order ward off russia and Austria from trying to intervene in succession. And in case that does not work to secure and alliance with the swedish crown during the ensuing war..

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Even before that time the main Austrian problem was leadership, not quality of the troops:

Yeah to elaborate on my earlier comment about recovering from Charles VI, I'd say that Maria Theresa had just about completely restored the army by the end of her reign, and the reform effort continued under Joseph II, at least as far as equipment and drill went. However he had a bad habit of sidelining the Empire's most proven talent (Laudon in particular) in favour of promoting yes men. That problem, like most caused by Joseph II, was largely fixed by Leopold II.

 

[alexmilman]

Yeah to elaborate on my earlier comment about recovering from Charles VI, I'd say that Maria Theresa had just about completely restored the army by the end of her reign, and the reform effort continued under Joseph II, at least as far as equipment and drill went. However he had a bad habit of sidelining the Empire's most proven talent (Laudon in particular) in favour of promoting yes men. That problem, like most caused by Joseph II, was largely fixed by Leopold II.

It was PARTIALLY fixed but even the best Austrian commander of the Revolutionary-Napoleonic period, Archduke Charles, thought that the main task of a cavalry reserve is covering a retreat (as happened at Wagram).

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

It was PARTIALLY fixed but even the best Austrian commander of the Revolutionary-Napoleonic period, Archduke Charles, thought that the main task of a cavalry reserve is covering a retreat (as happened at Wagram).

The conservative Austrian doctrine had it's merits and if anything Wagram vindicated rather than condemned it. At Wagram the Austrian army was able to escape mostly intact and in doing so probably saved the House of Habsburg.

 

[alexmilman]

The conservative Austrian doctrine had it's merits and if anything Wagram vindicated rather than condemned it. At Wagram the Austrian army was able to escape mostly intact and in doing so probably saved the House of Habsburg.

Well, while performance of the Austrian troops at Wagram was quite good, the same hardly can be said about their leadership: after victory at Essling Chalres did not bother to take serious measures to be alerted of the alternative crossing and to prevent it. As a result, his position at Wagram was overstretched and hardly allowed effective control of the troops. As for "intact", they lost 30 - 40K but retreated in a relatively good order thanks to the .... untouched cavalry reserve.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

As for "intact", they lost 30 - 40K but retreated in a relatively good order thanks to the .... untouched cavalry reserve.

Which meant they were still a field army numbering more than 100k (and durring the battle Napoleon had taken approximately the same amount of casualties meaning that parity of forces was roughly maintained). Had everything been committed and the outcome was still a loss then Austria is without an army and Napoleon still has Vienna, meaning he'd be free to impose a Carthaginian Peace.

 

[Mikestone8]

Fine prince Heinrich and Ferdinanand and kids all die in the house fire as well during a family reunion.

And they to raise Gustav as king of Prussia in order ward off russia and Austria from trying to intervene in succession. And in case that does not work to secure and alliance with the swedish crown during the ensuing war..

There's still the Ansbach and Bayreuth lines, and after them Hechingen and Sigmaringen.

 

[Sirdragon]

There's still the Ansbach and Bayreuth lines, and after them Hechingen and Sigmaringen.

Friedrike Wilhelmine had no male issue. Sigmaringen and Hechingen was not considered due to being catholic instead of protestant. And Ansbach was not considered in this timeline because of his houses debt which his father racked up. (with the Prussian's not wanting to take up debt before the start of a potential war.)